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Surrey North

Latest update: February 18, 2026
C
MLA: Mandeep Dhaliwal
Conservative Party of BC
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Recent electoral history | Surrey North


2017 2020 2024 Projection CPBC 45% ± 8% 0.0% 0.0% 50.7% NDP 42% ± 8% 58.2% 63.5% 43.3% BCG 7% ± 4% 8.6% 0.0% 4.2% ONE 4% ± 4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% BCU 0% ± 0% 32.3% 35.1% 0.0%

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338Canada Surrey North projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Surrey North 37% 54% 45% ± 8% ▼ CPBC 34% 50% 42% ± 8% ▼ NDP 3% 11% 7% ± 4% ▲ BCG 0% 8% 4% ± 4% ONE CPBC 2024 50.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Surrey North 68%▼ CPBC 32%▲ NDP <1% BCG Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Surrey North

BCU 0% ± 0% CPBC 45% ± 8% NDP 42% ± 8% BCG 7% ± 4% ONE 4% ± 4% CEN 2% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Surrey North 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 BCU CPBC NDP BCG ONE CEN February 18, 2026 2024-03-26 NDP 56% BCU 20% CPBC 19% BCG 1% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 55% CPBC 25% BCU 16% BCG 1% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 51% CPBC 33% BCU 12% BCG 1% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 53% CPBC 31% BCU 13% BCG 1% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 53% CPBC 31% BCU 12% BCG 1% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 52% CPBC 33% BCU 11% BCG 2% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 52% CPBC 34% BCU 10% BCG 2% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 52% CPBC 34% BCU 10% BCG 1% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 57% CPBC 40% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 58% CPBC 41% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 58% CPBC 41% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 57% CPBC 42% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 57% CPBC 42% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 57% CPBC 42% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 57% CPBC 42% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 57% CPBC 42% BCG 1% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 56% CPBC 42% BCG 2% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 57% CPBC 41% BCG 2% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 57% CPBC 41% BCG 2% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 56% CPBC 42% BCG 2% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 56% CPBC 42% BCG 2% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 56% CPBC 42% BCG 2% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 57% CPBC 42% BCG 2% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 57% CPBC 41% BCG 2% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 57% CPBC 41% BCG 2% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 58% CPBC 40% BCG 2% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 57% CPBC 41% BCG 2% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 57% CPBC 41% BCG 2% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 57% CPBC 41% BCG 2% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 57% CPBC 41% BCG 2% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 57% CPBC 41% BCG 2% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 58% CPBC 40% BCG 2% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 59% CPBC 39% BCG 2% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 59% CPBC 39% BCG 2% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 59% CPBC 39% BCG 2% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 59% CPBC 39% BCG 2% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC 51% NDP 43% BCG 4% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 CPBC 51% NDP 43% BCG 4% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 CPBC 51% NDP 43% BCG 4% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 CPBC 51% NDP 43% BCG 4% ONE 2% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 CPBC 51% NDP 43% BCG 4% ONE 2% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 CPBC 49% NDP 43% BCG 4% ONE 2% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 CPBC 48% NDP 43% BCG 5% ONE 2% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-12-20 2026-02-05 CPBC 47% NDP 43% BCG 5% ONE 4% CEN 2% BCU 0% 2026-02-05 2026-02-18 CPBC 45% NDP 42% BCG 7% ONE 4% CEN 2% BCU 0% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Surrey North

BCU <1% CPBC 68% NDP 32% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG February 18, 2026 2024-03-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2025-12-20 2026-02-05 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2026-02-05 2026-02-18 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2026-02-18 2024-03-26 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 CPBC 95% NDP 5% BCG <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 CPBC 92% NDP 8% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC 85% NDP 15% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC 81% NDP 19% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC 85% NDP 15% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 CPBC 75% NDP 25% BCG <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 CPBC 74% NDP 26% BCG <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 CPBC 70% NDP 30% BCG <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 CPBC 68% NDP 32% BCG <1% 2024-09-27