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British columbia

Vancouver-Kensington


MLA: Mable Elmore (NDP)
Latest projection: February 9, 2025
NDP safe
Vancouver-Kensington 61% ± 7% NDP 31% ± 7%▼ CPBC 8% ± 4% BCG NDP 2024 60.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 9, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Vancouver-Kensington >99% NDP <1% CPBC <1% BCG Odds of winning | February 9, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Vancouver-Kensington

CPBC 31% ± 7% NDP 61% ± 7% BCG 8% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Vancouver-Kensington 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG February 9, 2025 2023-12-31 NDP 56% CPBC 16% BCG 9% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 59% CPBC 16% BCG 9% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 55% CPBC 19% BCG 9% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 53% CPBC 25% BCG 8% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 49% CPBC 33% BCG 8% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 51% CPBC 30% BCG 8% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 51% CPBC 31% BCG 9% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 49% CPBC 33% BCG 9% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 49% CPBC 33% BCG 9% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 50% CPBC 34% BCG 8% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 53% CPBC 37% BCG 8% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 53% CPBC 39% BCG 8% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 53% CPBC 39% BCG 8% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 53% CPBC 39% BCG 8% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 53% CPBC 39% BCG 8% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 53% CPBC 39% BCG 8% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 53% CPBC 39% BCG 8% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 53% CPBC 39% BCG 8% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 53% CPBC 39% BCG 8% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 54% CPBC 39% BCG 8% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 54% CPBC 39% BCG 8% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 53% CPBC 40% BCG 7% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 53% CPBC 40% BCG 7% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 53% CPBC 39% BCG 7% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 53% CPBC 39% BCG 7% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 54% CPBC 39% BCG 7% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 54% CPBC 38% BCG 7% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 55% CPBC 38% BCG 7% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 54% CPBC 38% BCG 7% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 54% CPBC 39% BCG 7% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 54% CPBC 38% BCG 8% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 54% CPBC 38% BCG 8% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 54% CPBC 38% BCG 8% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 55% CPBC 37% BCG 8% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 55% CPBC 37% BCG 8% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 55% CPBC 37% BCG 8% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 55% CPBC 37% BCG 8% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 55% CPBC 36% BCG 8% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 61% CPBC 32% BCG 8% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 61% CPBC 32% BCG 8% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 61% CPBC 31% BCG 8% 2025-02-09

Odds of winning | Vancouver-Kensington

BCU <1% CPBC <1% NDP >99% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG February 9, 2025 2023-12-31 NDP 18% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 53% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 48% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 16% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 22% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 9% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 10% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 7% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 29% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 84% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 94% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2025-02-09 2023-12-31 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-21

Recent electoral history | Vancouver-Kensington



2017 2020 2024 Proj. NDP 61% ± 7% 54.6% 59.6% 60.9% CPBC 31% ± 7% 0.3% 0.0% 31.5% BCG 8% ± 4% 10.3% 11.8% 7.6% LIB 0% ± 0% 34.0% 27.7% 0.0%
Data from 2017 and 2020 are those transposed onto the new electoral map.