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British columbia

Vancouver-Kensington


Latest projection: October 2, 2024
NDP likely

Candidates | Vancouver-Kensington


BC NDP Mable Elmore
Conservative Party of BC Syed Mohsin
BC Green Party Amy Fox

Candidates are listed on the Elections BC website here. This list will be updated regularly throughout the campaign.

Vancouver-Kensington 53% ± 7%▼ NDP 40% ± 7%▲ CPBC 7% ± 4%▼ BCG NDP 2020 59.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 2, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Vancouver-Kensington 99%▼ NDP 1%▲ CPBC <1% BCG Odds of winning | October 2, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Vancouver-Kensington

CPBC 40% ± 7% NDP 53% ± 7% BCG 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Vancouver-Kensington 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-09-15 2024-10-01 2024-10-15 Election 2024 Campaign begins CPBC NDP BCG October 2, 2024 2024-09-21 NDP 53% CPBC 39% BCG 8% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 53% CPBC 39% BCG 8% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 53% CPBC 39% BCG 8% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 53% CPBC 39% BCG 8% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 53% CPBC 39% BCG 8% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 53% CPBC 39% BCG 8% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 53% CPBC 39% BCG 8% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 54% CPBC 39% BCG 8% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 54% CPBC 39% BCG 8% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 53% CPBC 40% BCG 7% 2024-10-02

Odds of winning | Vancouver-Kensington

BCU <1% CPBC 1% NDP 99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-09-15 2024-10-01 2024-10-15 Election 2024 Campaign begins BCU CPBC NDP October 2, 2024 2024-09-21 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCU <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCU <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCU <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCU <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCU <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCU <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCU <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCU <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCU <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCU <1% 2024-10-02

Recent electoral history | Vancouver-Kensington



2017 2020 Proj. NDP 54.6% 59.6% 53% ± 7% CPBC 0.3% 0.0% 40% ± 7% BCG 10.3% 11.8% 7% ± 4% BCU 34.0% 27.7% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2017 and 2020 are those transposed onto new electoral map.