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British columbia

Surrey South


MLA: Brent Chapman (CPBC)
Latest projection: February 9, 2025
CPBC likely
Surrey South 59% ± 7% CPBC 41% ± 7% NDP CPBC 2024 58.83% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 9, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Surrey South >99% CPBC <1% NDP <1% INDOdds of winning | February 9, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Surrey South

CPBC 59% ± 7% NDP 41% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Surrey South 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP February 9, 2025 2023-12-31 NDP 33% CPBC 25% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 35% CPBC 26% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 31% CPBC 29% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 CPBC 34% NDP 29% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 CPBC 42% NDP 28% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 CPBC 39% NDP 29% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 CPBC 40% NDP 30% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 CPBC 43% NDP 29% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 CPBC 44% NDP 29% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 CPBC 45% NDP 30% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC 57% NDP 35% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC 59% NDP 35% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC 59% NDP 35% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 CPBC 58% NDP 35% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 CPBC 58% NDP 35% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 CPBC 58% NDP 35% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 CPBC 59% NDP 35% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 CPBC 59% NDP 35% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 63% NDP 37% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 CPBC 62% NDP 38% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 CPBC 62% NDP 38% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC 63% NDP 37% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC 63% NDP 37% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC 63% NDP 37% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC 63% NDP 37% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC 62% NDP 38% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 CPBC 62% NDP 38% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 CPBC 61% NDP 39% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC 62% NDP 38% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC 62% NDP 38% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 CPBC 62% NDP 38% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC 62% NDP 38% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 CPBC 62% NDP 38% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 CPBC 61% NDP 39% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 CPBC 61% NDP 39% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 CPBC 61% NDP 39% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 CPBC 61% NDP 39% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 CPBC 60% NDP 40% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC 59% NDP 41% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 CPBC 59% NDP 41% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 CPBC 59% NDP 41% 2025-02-09

Odds of winning | Surrey South

BCU <1% CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG February 9, 2025 2023-12-31 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 51% CPBC 3% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 52% CPBC 3% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 51% CPBC 3% BCG <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 76% CPBC 4% BCG <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 30% CPBC 21% BCG <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 CPBC 68% NDP 17% BCG <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 CPBC 97% NDP 2% BCG <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 93% NDP 6% BCG <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 CPBC 95% NDP 5% BCG <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 CPBC 99% NDP 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC 99% NDP 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC 99% NDP 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2025-02-09 2023-12-31 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-21

Recent electoral history | Surrey South



2017 2020 2024 Proj. CPBC 59% ± 7% 0.0% 0.0% 58.8% NDP 41% ± 7% 29.5% 35.1% 41.2% LIB 0% ± 0% 56.0% 55.4% 0.0% BCG 0% ± 0% 10.5% 9.3% 0.0%
Data from 2017 and 2020 are those transposed onto the new electoral map.