logo
British columbia

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading latest analysis…


British Columbia flag

Northern BC

9 provincial districts
Latest update: December 20, 2025

Northern BC 52% 66% 59% ± 7% CPBC 22% 33% 27% ± 6% NDP 3% 9% 6% ± 3% BCG 338Canada popular vote projection | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. It is not a poll. It reflects an aggregation of polling and modelling of various data. Details on 338Canada’s methodology are available here.
Northern BC, 9 federal districts 8 [6-9] CPBC 1  [1-3] NDP 338Canada seat projection | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current range from worst- to best-case outcomes. Values near the centre of the distribution are more likely than the extremes, as the results follow Gaussian-like (bell-curve) distributions. Does it work? See 338Canada’s full record here.

Popular vote projection | Northern BC

CPBC 59% ± 7% NDP 27% ± 6% BCG 6% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Northern BC 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG December 20, 2025 2024-03-26 CPBC 34% NDP 29% BCG 4% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 CPBC 40% NDP 28% BCG 4% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 CPBC 45% NDP 28% BCG 4% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 CPBC 42% NDP 29% BCG 4% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 CPBC 43% NDP 29% BCG 4% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 CPBC 46% NDP 28% BCG 4% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 CPBC 47% NDP 29% BCG 4% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 CPBC 48% NDP 29% BCG 4% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC 61% NDP 32% BCG 4% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC 58% NDP 34% BCG 4% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC 58% NDP 34% BCG 4% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 CPBC 55% NDP 34% BCG 4% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 CPBC 56% NDP 33% BCG 4% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 CPBC 56% NDP 33% BCG 4% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 CPBC 56% NDP 33% BCG 4% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 CPBC 56% NDP 33% BCG 4% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 56% NDP 33% BCG 4% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 CPBC 56% NDP 33% BCG 4% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 CPBC 56% NDP 33% BCG 4% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC 56% NDP 33% BCG 4% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC 56% NDP 33% BCG 4% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC 56% NDP 33% BCG 4% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC 56% NDP 34% BCG 4% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC 55% NDP 34% BCG 4% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 CPBC 55% NDP 34% BCG 4% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 CPBC 54% NDP 35% BCG 4% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC 55% NDP 35% BCG 4% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC 55% NDP 35% BCG 4% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 CPBC 54% NDP 35% BCG 4% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC 55% NDP 34% BCG 4% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 CPBC 55% NDP 34% BCG 4% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 CPBC 55% NDP 33% BCG 4% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 CPBC 55% NDP 33% BCG 4% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 CPBC 55% NDP 33% BCG 4% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 CPBC 55% NDP 33% BCG 4% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 CPBC 56% NDP 33% BCG 4% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC 60% NDP 27% BCG 5% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 CPBC 59% NDP 27% BCG 5% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 CPBC 59% NDP 27% BCG 5% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 CPBC 59% NDP 27% BCG 5% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 CPBC 60% NDP 27% BCG 5% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 CPBC 59% NDP 27% BCG 5% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 CPBC 59% NDP 27% BCG 6% 2025-12-20

Seat projection | Northern BC

CPBC 8 [6-9] NDP 1 [1-3] Seat projection | Northern BC 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP December 20, 2025 2024-03-26 CPBC 6 NDP 3 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 CPBC 6 NDP 3 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 CPBC 7 NDP 2 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 CPBC 6 NDP 3 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 CPBC 6 NDP 3 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 CPBC 7 NDP 2 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 CPBC 7 NDP 2 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 CPBC 7 NDP 2 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC 7 NDP 2 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC 7 NDP 2 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC 7 NDP 2 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 CPBC 7 NDP 2 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 CPBC 7 NDP 2 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 CPBC 7 NDP 2 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 CPBC 7 NDP 2 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 CPBC 7 NDP 2 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 7 NDP 2 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 CPBC 7 NDP 2 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 CPBC 7 NDP 2 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC 7 NDP 2 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC 7 NDP 2 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC 7 NDP 2 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC 7 NDP 2 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC 7 NDP 2 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 CPBC 7 NDP 2 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 CPBC 7 NDP 2 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC 7 NDP 2 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC 7 NDP 2 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 CPBC 7 NDP 2 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC 7 NDP 2 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 CPBC 7 NDP 2 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 CPBC 7 NDP 2 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 CPBC 7 NDP 2 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 CPBC 7 NDP 2 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 CPBC 7 NDP 2 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 CPBC 7 NDP 2 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC 8 NDP 1 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 CPBC 8 NDP 1 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 CPBC 8 NDP 1 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 CPBC 8 NDP 1 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 CPBC 8 NDP 1 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 CPBC 8 NDP 1 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 CPBC 8 NDP 1 2025-12-20

British Columbia flag

List of districts | Northern BC
Latest update: December 20, 2025

Electoral districts
Current party
Projection
Sharon L. Hartwell
C CPBC leaning
John Rustad
C CPBC safe
Tamara Davidson
N NDP safe
Jordan Kealy [Elected with CP]
I CPBC safe
Larry Neufeld
C CPBC safe
C CPBC safe
C CPBC safe
C CPBC likely
Claire Rattée
C Toss up