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British columbia

Vancouver-Little Mountain


MLA: Christine Boyle (NDP)
Latest projection: November 10, 2024
NDP safe
Vancouver-Little Mountain 62% ± 0% NDP 31% ± 0% CPBC 7% ± 0% BCG NDP 2024 62.11% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 10, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Vancouver-Little Mountain >99% NDP <1% CPBC <1% BCG Odds of winning | November 10, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Vancouver-Little Mountain

CPBC 31% ± 0% NDP 62% ± 0% BCG 7% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Vancouver-Little Mountain 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG November 10, 2024 2023-12-31 NDP 48% CPBC 17% BCG 12% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 51% CPBC 17% BCG 11% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 47% CPBC 21% BCG 11% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 46% CPBC 26% BCG 10% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 42% CPBC 34% BCG 10% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 44% CPBC 31% BCG 10% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 44% CPBC 32% BCG 11% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 43% CPBC 34% BCG 11% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 43% CPBC 35% BCG 11% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 43% CPBC 35% BCG 10% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 47% CPBC 40% BCG 10% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 48% CPBC 42% BCG 11% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 48% CPBC 42% BCG 11% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 48% CPBC 42% BCG 11% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 48% CPBC 42% BCG 10% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 48% CPBC 42% BCG 10% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 48% CPBC 42% BCG 10% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 48% CPBC 42% BCG 10% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 47% CPBC 43% BCG 10% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 48% CPBC 42% BCG 10% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 48% CPBC 42% BCG 10% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 47% CPBC 43% BCG 10% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 47% CPBC 43% BCG 10% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 48% CPBC 43% BCG 10% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 48% CPBC 43% BCG 10% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 48% CPBC 42% BCG 10% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 49% CPBC 42% BCG 10% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 49% CPBC 41% BCG 10% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 49% CPBC 42% BCG 10% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 48% CPBC 42% BCG 10% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 49% CPBC 41% BCG 10% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 48% CPBC 41% BCG 10% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 48% CPBC 41% BCG 11% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 49% CPBC 40% BCG 11% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 49% CPBC 40% BCG 11% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 49% CPBC 40% BCG 11% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 49% CPBC 40% BCG 11% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 49% CPBC 40% BCG 11% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 62% CPBC 31% BCG 7% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 62% CPBC 31% BCG 7% 2024-11-10

Odds of winning | Vancouver-Little Mountain

BCU <1% CPBC <1% NDP >99% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG November 10, 2024 2023-12-31 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 89% CPBC 11% BCG <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 93% CPBC 7% BCG <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 91% CPBC 9% BCG <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 91% CPBC 9% BCG <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 87% CPBC 13% BCG <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 82% CPBC 18% BCG <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 82% CPBC 18% BCG <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 84% CPBC 16% BCG <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 84% CPBC 16% BCG <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 84% CPBC 16% BCG <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 83% CPBC 17% BCG <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 82% CPBC 18% BCG <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 79% CPBC 21% BCG <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 87% CPBC 13% BCG <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 88% CPBC 12% BCG <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 78% CPBC 22% BCG <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 78% CPBC 22% BCG <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 80% CPBC 20% BCG <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 82% CPBC 18% BCG <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 87% CPBC 13% BCG <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 89% CPBC 11% BCG <1% 2024-11-10 2023-12-31 NDP 91% CPBC 9% BCG <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 88% CPBC 12% BCG <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 86% CPBC 14% BCG <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 89% CPBC 11% BCG <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 89% CPBC 11% BCG <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 89% CPBC 11% BCG <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 93% CPBC 7% BCG <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 95% CPBC 5% BCG <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 95% CPBC 5% BCG <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 95% CPBC 5% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 96% CPBC 4% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-21

Recent electoral history | Vancouver-Little Mountain



2017 2020 2024 Proj. NDP 62% ± 0% 51.5% 50.9% 62.1% CPBC 31% ± 0% 0.0% 0.2% 30.6% BCG 7% ± 0% 13.7% 14.7% 7.3% LIB 0% ± 0% 34.1% 33.3% 0.0%
Data from 2017 and 2020 are those transposed onto the new electoral map.