logo
logo
British columbia
British Columbia flag

Mid Island-Pacific Rim

Latest update: December 20, 2025
N
MLA: Josie Osborne
New Democratic Party
NDP likely
Projection — Mid Island-Pacific Rim → Regional projection — Vancouver Island-Pacific Coast → All British Columbia provincial districts → British Columbia projection map → British Columbia polls → Back to 338Canada British Columbia home → Riding roulette! →

Recent electoral history | Mid Island-Pacific Rim


2017 2020 2024 Projection NDP 47% ± 8% 49.3% 58.2% 48.7% CPBC 37% ± 8% 3.4% 0.0% 39.4% BCG 13% ± 5% 20.3% 20.3% 11.8% BCU 0% ± 0% 25.5% 17.5% 0.0%

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading latest analysis…


British Columbia flag

338Canada Mid Island-Pacific Rim projection

Latest update: December 20, 2025

Mid Island-Pacific Rim 39% 56% 47% ± 8% ▼ NDP 29% 45% 37% ± 8% CPBC 8% 18% 13% ± 5% ▲ BCG NDP 2024 48.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Mid Island-Pacific Rim 95% NDP 5% CPBC <1% BCG Odds of winning | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Mid Island-Pacific Rim

BCU 0% ± 0% CPBC 37% ± 8% NDP 47% ± 8% BCG 13% ± 5% ONE 1% ± 1% CEN 0% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Mid Island-Pacific Rim 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 BCU CPBC NDP BCG ONE CEN December 20, 2025 2024-03-26 NDP 55% CPBC 19% BCG 15% BCU 8% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 55% CPBC 21% BCG 14% BCU 8% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 52% CPBC 25% BCG 14% BCU 8% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 53% CPBC 23% BCG 14% BCU 8% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 53% CPBC 23% BCG 15% BCU 7% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 51% CPBC 25% BCG 15% BCU 6% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 52% CPBC 25% BCG 15% BCU 6% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 53% CPBC 26% BCG 13% BCU 6% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 56% CPBC 28% BCG 14% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 55% CPBC 27% BCG 13% BCU 5% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 55% CPBC 27% BCG 13% BCU 5% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 58% CPBC 28% BCG 14% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 57% CPBC 29% BCG 14% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 57% CPBC 29% BCG 14% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 57% CPBC 30% BCG 14% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 57% CPBC 30% BCG 14% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 56% CPBC 30% BCG 13% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 55% CPBC 32% BCG 13% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 55% CPBC 32% BCG 13% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 55% CPBC 32% BCG 13% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 55% CPBC 32% BCG 13% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 55% CPBC 32% BCG 13% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 55% CPBC 31% BCG 13% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 56% CPBC 31% BCG 13% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 56% CPBC 31% BCG 13% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 56% CPBC 30% BCG 13% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 56% CPBC 31% BCG 13% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 56% CPBC 31% BCG 13% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 56% CPBC 30% BCG 14% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 56% CPBC 30% BCG 14% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 55% CPBC 30% BCG 15% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 55% CPBC 30% BCG 15% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 55% CPBC 29% BCG 15% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 55% CPBC 29% BCG 15% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 55% CPBC 29% BCG 15% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 54% CPBC 31% BCG 15% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 49% CPBC 40% BCG 12% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 49% CPBC 39% BCG 12% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 49% CPBC 39% BCG 12% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP 49% CPBC 39% BCG 12% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP 48% CPBC 40% BCG 12% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 NDP 48% CPBC 37% BCG 12% ONE 1% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 NDP 47% CPBC 37% BCG 13% ONE 1% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-12-20

Odds of winning | Mid Island-Pacific Rim

BCU <1% CPBC 5% NDP 95% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG December 20, 2025 2024-03-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2025-12-20 2024-03-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 95% CPBC 5% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 91% CPBC 9% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 88% CPBC 12% BCG <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 95% CPBC 5% BCG <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 95% CPBC 5% BCG <1% 2024-09-26