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British columbia

Chilliwack-Cultus Lake


MLA: A'aliya Warbus (CPBC)
Latest projection: November 10, 2024
CPBC likely
Chilliwack-Cultus Lake 55% ± 0% CPBC 45% ± 0% NDP CPBC 2024 54.58% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 10, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Chilliwack-Cultus Lake 98%▼ CPBC 2%▲ NDP <1% INDOdds of winning | November 10, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Chilliwack-Cultus Lake

CPBC 55% ± 0% NDP 45% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Chilliwack-Cultus Lake 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP November 10, 2024 2023-12-31 NDP 38% CPBC 24% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 40% CPBC 25% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 36% CPBC 28% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 35% CPBC 34% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 CPBC 39% NDP 33% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 CPBC 37% NDP 34% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 CPBC 37% NDP 35% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 CPBC 39% NDP 33% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 CPBC 43% NDP 33% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 CPBC 43% NDP 33% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC 44% NDP 42% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC 46% NDP 44% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC 46% NDP 44% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 CPBC 46% NDP 44% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 CPBC 46% NDP 44% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 CPBC 47% NDP 43% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 CPBC 47% NDP 43% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 CPBC 47% NDP 43% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 51% NDP 49% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 CPBC 51% NDP 49% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 CPBC 51% NDP 49% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC 51% NDP 49% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC 51% NDP 49% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC 51% NDP 49% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC 51% NDP 49% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC 50% NDP 50% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 50% CPBC 50% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 51% CPBC 49% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC 50% NDP 50% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC 50% NDP 50% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 50% CPBC 50% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 50% CPBC 50% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 50% CPBC 50% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 50% CPBC 50% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 51% CPBC 49% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 51% CPBC 49% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 51% CPBC 49% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 51% CPBC 49% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC 55% NDP 45% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 CPBC 55% NDP 45% 2024-11-10

Odds of winning | Chilliwack-Cultus Lake

BCU <1% CPBC 98% NDP 2% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG November 10, 2024 2023-12-31 NDP 13% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 43% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 38% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 12% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 16% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 7% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 8% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 9% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 30% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 83% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 92% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 90% CPBC 10% BCG <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 56% CPBC 44% BCG <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 CPBC 82% NDP 18% BCG <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 65% NDP 35% BCG <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 CPBC 66% NDP 34% BCG <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 CPBC 84% NDP 16% BCG <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC 95% NDP 5% BCG <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC 96% NDP 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC 62% NDP 38% BCG <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC 66% NDP 34% BCG <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC 65% NDP 35% BCG <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 CPBC 63% NDP 37% BCG <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 CPBC 64% NDP 36% BCG <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC 72% NDP 28% BCG <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC 73% NDP 27% BCG <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 CPBC 74% NDP 26% BCG <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC 62% NDP 38% BCG <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 CPBC 62% NDP 38% BCG <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 CPBC 62% NDP 38% BCG <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 CPBC 67% NDP 33% BCG <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 CPBC 67% NDP 33% BCG <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 CPBC 64% NDP 36% BCG <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 CPBC 61% NDP 39% BCG <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC 53% NDP 47% BCG <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 50% CPBC 50% BCG <1% 2024-11-10 2023-12-31 NDP 56% CPBC 44% BCG <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 CPBC 52% NDP 48% BCG <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 CPBC 54% NDP 46% BCG <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 52% CPBC 48% BCG <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 51% CPBC 49% BCG <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 51% CPBC 49% BCG <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 53% CPBC 47% BCG <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 59% CPBC 41% BCG <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 66% CPBC 34% BCG <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 66% CPBC 34% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 67% CPBC 33% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC 99% NDP 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC 98% NDP 2% BCG <1% 2024-09-21

Recent electoral history | Chilliwack-Cultus Lake



2017 2020 2024 Proj. CPBC 55% ± 0% 0.0% 2.8% 54.6% NDP 45% ± 0% 32.5% 37.2% 45.4% LIB 0% ± 0% 51.5% 28.9% 0.0% BCG 0% ± 0% 15.7% 8.4% 0.0%
Data from 2017 and 2020 are those transposed onto the new electoral map.