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British columbia

Juan de Fuca-Malahat


MLA: Dana Lajeunesse (NDP)
Latest projection: November 10, 2024
Toss up
Juan de Fuca-Malahat 39% ± 0% NDP 38% ± 0% CPBC 23% ± 0% BCG NDP 2024 38.79% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 10, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Juan de Fuca-Malahat 56%▲ NDP 44%▼ CPBC <1% BCG Odds of winning | November 10, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Juan de Fuca-Malahat

CPBC 38% ± 0% NDP 39% ± 0% BCG 23% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Juan de Fuca-Malahat 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG November 10, 2024 2023-12-31 NDP 47% BCG 27% CPBC 13% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 50% BCG 26% CPBC 13% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 46% BCG 26% CPBC 17% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 46% BCG 24% CPBC 19% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 45% BCG 23% CPBC 22% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 45% BCG 24% CPBC 20% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 45% BCG 25% CPBC 20% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 44% BCG 26% CPBC 22% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 45% BCG 25% CPBC 22% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 46% CPBC 23% BCG 23% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 49% CPBC 26% BCG 24% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 50% CPBC 26% BCG 24% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 50% CPBC 26% BCG 24% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 50% CPBC 26% BCG 24% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 47% CPBC 28% BCG 25% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 47% CPBC 28% BCG 24% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 47% CPBC 29% BCG 24% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 47% CPBC 29% BCG 24% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 47% CPBC 29% BCG 24% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 46% CPBC 31% BCG 24% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 46% CPBC 31% BCG 24% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 46% CPBC 31% BCG 23% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 46% CPBC 31% BCG 23% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 46% CPBC 31% BCG 23% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 46% CPBC 30% BCG 23% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 47% CPBC 30% BCG 24% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 47% CPBC 30% BCG 24% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 47% CPBC 29% BCG 24% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 47% CPBC 30% BCG 23% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 47% CPBC 30% BCG 24% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 46% CPBC 29% BCG 24% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 46% CPBC 29% BCG 24% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 45% CPBC 29% BCG 26% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 45% CPBC 28% BCG 26% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 45% CPBC 28% BCG 27% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 45% CPBC 28% BCG 27% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 45% CPBC 28% BCG 27% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 45% CPBC 28% BCG 27% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 39% CPBC 38% BCG 23% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 39% CPBC 38% BCG 23% 2024-11-10

Odds of winning | Juan de Fuca-Malahat

BCU <1% CPBC 44% NDP 56% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG November 10, 2024 2023-12-31 NDP <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 5% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 4% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 3% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 38% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 60% CPBC 3% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-11-10 2023-12-31 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 51% CPBC 49% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 56% CPBC 44% BCG <1% 2024-09-21

Recent electoral history | Juan de Fuca-Malahat



2017 2020 2024 Proj. NDP 39% ± 0% 38.0% 52.2% 38.8% CPBC 38% ± 0% 0.0% 0.0% 38.2% BCG 23% ± 0% 33.7% 33.4% 23.0% LIB 0% ± 0% 26.2% 14.0% 0.0%
Data from 2017 and 2020 are those transposed onto the new electoral map.