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British columbia

Juan de Fuca-Malahat


Latest projection: September 3, 2024
NDP safe
Juan de Fuca-Malahat 49% ± 7%▲ NDP 26% ± 6%▲ CPBC 24% ± 6%▲ BCG NDP 2020 52.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 3, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Juan de Fuca-Malahat >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% CPBC Odds of winning | September 3, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Juan de Fuca-Malahat

CPBC 26% ± 6% NDP 49% ± 7% BCG 24% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Juan de Fuca-Malahat 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG September 3, 2024 2023-12-31 NDP 47% BCG 27% CPBC 13% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 50% BCG 26% CPBC 13% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 46% BCG 26% CPBC 17% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 46% BCG 24% CPBC 19% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 45% BCG 23% CPBC 22% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 45% BCG 24% CPBC 20% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 45% BCG 25% CPBC 20% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 44% BCG 26% CPBC 22% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 45% BCG 25% CPBC 22% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 46% CPBC 23% BCG 23% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 49% CPBC 26% BCG 24% 2024-09-03

Odds of winning | Juan de Fuca-Malahat

BCU <1% NDP >99% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 Election 2024 BCU NDP BCG September 3, 2024 2023-12-31 NDP >99% BCG <1% BCU <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% BCU <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% BCU <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP >99% BCG <1% BCU <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP >99% BCG <1% BCU <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% BCU <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% BCU <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP >99% BCG <1% BCU <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% BCU <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP >99% BCG <1% BCU <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% BCU <1% 2024-09-03

Recent electoral history | Juan de Fuca-Malahat



2017 2020 Proj. NDP 38.0% 52.2% 49% ± 7% BCG 33.7% 33.4% 24% ± 6% BCU 26.2% 14.0% 0% ± 0% CPBC 0.0% 0.0% 26% ± 6% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2017 and 2020 are those transposed onto new electoral map.