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British columbia

Penticton-Summerland


MLA: Amelia Boultbee (CPBC)
Latest projection: February 9, 2025
Toss up
Penticton-Summerland 41% ± 7% CPBC 40% ± 7% NDP 13% ± 6% IND 5% ± 3% BCG CPBC 2024 41.37% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 9, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Penticton-Summerland 58%▼ CPBC 42%▲ NDP <1% INDOdds of winning | February 9, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Penticton-Summerland

CPBC 41% ± 7% NDP 40% ± 7% BCG 5% ± 3% IND 13% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Penticton-Summerland 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG IND February 9, 2025 2023-12-31 NDP 35% CPBC 29% BCG 8% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 36% CPBC 29% BCG 8% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 32% CPBC 32% BCG 8% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 CPBC 38% NDP 31% BCG 7% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 CPBC 43% NDP 31% BCG 7% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 CPBC 40% NDP 33% BCG 7% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 CPBC 41% NDP 33% BCG 8% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 CPBC 43% NDP 32% BCG 8% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 CPBC 44% NDP 32% BCG 8% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 CPBC 45% NDP 32% BCG 7% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC 56% NDP 35% BCG 7% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC 56% NDP 37% BCG 7% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC 56% NDP 37% BCG 7% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 CPBC 56% NDP 37% BCG 7% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 CPBC 57% NDP 36% BCG 7% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 CPBC 57% NDP 36% BCG 7% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 CPBC 57% NDP 36% BCG 7% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 CPBC 57% NDP 36% BCG 7% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 55% NDP 34% BCG 6% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 CPBC 55% NDP 35% BCG 6% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 CPBC 55% NDP 35% BCG 6% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC 55% NDP 35% BCG 6% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC 55% NDP 35% BCG 6% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC 55% NDP 35% BCG 6% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC 55% NDP 35% BCG 6% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC 54% NDP 35% BCG 6% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 CPBC 54% NDP 36% BCG 6% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 CPBC 53% NDP 37% BCG 6% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC 54% NDP 36% BCG 6% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC 54% NDP 36% BCG 6% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 CPBC 53% NDP 36% BCG 6% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC 51% NDP 38% BCG 4% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 CPBC 51% NDP 38% BCG 4% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 CPBC 51% NDP 38% BCG 4% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 CPBC 52% NDP 38% BCG 4% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 CPBC 52% NDP 38% BCG 4% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 CPBC 52% NDP 38% BCG 4% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 CPBC 52% NDP 37% BCG 4% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC 42% NDP 40% BCG 5% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 CPBC 41% NDP 40% BCG 5% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 CPBC 41% NDP 40% BCG 5% 2025-02-09

Odds of winning | Penticton-Summerland

BCU <1% CPBC 58% NDP 42% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG February 9, 2025 2023-12-31 NDP 99% BCG 1% CPBC <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 97% BCG 3% CPBC <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 97% BCG 3% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 90% BCG 10% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 97% BCG 3% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 97% BCG 3% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 96% BCG 4% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 88% BCG 12% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 98% BCG 2% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 83% CPBC 15% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 85% CPBC 14% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 85% CPBC 13% BCG <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 89% CPBC 11% BCG <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 49% CPBC 49% BCG <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 CPBC 84% NDP 16% BCG <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 CPBC 95% NDP 5% BCG <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 88% NDP 12% BCG <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 CPBC 90% NDP 10% BCG <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 CPBC 97% NDP 3% BCG <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC 98% NDP 2% BCG <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC 98% NDP 2% BCG <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2025-02-09 2023-12-31 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 CPBC 99% NDP 1% BCG <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 CPBC 99% NDP 1% BCG <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 CPBC 99% NDP 1% BCG <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 CPBC 99% NDP 1% BCG <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 CPBC 99% NDP 1% BCG <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 CPBC 99% NDP 1% BCG <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC 68% NDP 32% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC 62% NDP 38% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC 58% NDP 42% BCG <1% 2024-09-21

Recent electoral history | Penticton-Summerland



2017 2020 2024 Proj. CPBC 41% ± 7% 0.0% 0.0% 41.4% NDP 40% ± 7% 29.6% 38.9% 40.2% IND 13% ± 6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% BCG 5% ± 3% 18.9% 11.6% 5.2% LIB 0% ± 0% 51.5% 47.0% 0.0%
Data from 2017 and 2020 are those transposed onto the new electoral map.