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Vernon-Lumby

Latest update: December 20, 2025
N
MLA: Harwinder Sandhu
New Democratic Party
Toss up
Projection — Vernon-Lumby → Regional projection — Okanagan-Rockies → All British Columbia provincial districts → British Columbia projection map → British Columbia polls → Back to 338Canada British Columbia home → Riding roulette! →

Recent electoral history | Vernon-Lumby


2017 2020 2024 Projection NDP 46% ± 8% 30.0% 36.7% 42.7% CPBC 42% ± 8% 0.0% 13.0% 41.0% BCG 1% ± 1% 21.7% 16.1% 0.0% BCU 0% ± 0% 47.1% 34.2% 0.0%

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338Canada Vernon-Lumby projection

Latest update: December 20, 2025

Vernon-Lumby 38% 54% 46% ± 8% NDP 34% 51% 42% ± 8% ▼ CPBC NDP 2024 42.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Vernon-Lumby 70%▲ NDP 30%▼ CPBC <1% ONEOdds of winning | December 20, 2025
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Vernon-Lumby

BCU 0% ± 0% CPBC 42% ± 8% NDP 46% ± 8% BCG 1% ± 1% ONE 2% ± 2% CEN 0% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Vernon-Lumby 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 BCU CPBC NDP BCG ONE CEN December 20, 2025 2024-03-26 CPBC 39% NDP 30% BCU 19% BCG 11% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 CPBC 40% NDP 32% BCU 16% BCG 10% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 CPBC 46% NDP 30% BCU 13% BCG 9% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 CPBC 44% NDP 32% BCU 13% BCG 10% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 CPBC 44% NDP 32% BCU 12% BCG 11% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 CPBC 46% NDP 31% BCG 11% BCU 11% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 CPBC 47% NDP 31% BCG 11% BCU 10% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 CPBC 48% NDP 31% BCU 10% BCG 10% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC 54% NDP 34% BCG 11% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC 49% NDP 34% BCG 11% BCU 5% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC 49% NDP 34% BCG 11% BCU 5% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 CPBC 50% NDP 35% BCG 12% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 CPBC 51% NDP 34% BCG 11% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 CPBC 51% NDP 34% BCG 11% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 CPBC 51% NDP 34% BCG 11% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 CPBC 51% NDP 34% BCG 11% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 58% NDP 38% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 CPBC 57% NDP 38% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 CPBC 57% NDP 38% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC 58% NDP 38% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC 58% NDP 38% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC 57% NDP 38% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC 57% NDP 39% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC 56% NDP 39% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 CPBC 56% NDP 39% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 CPBC 55% NDP 40% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC 56% NDP 40% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC 56% NDP 40% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 CPBC 55% NDP 40% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC 55% NDP 40% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 CPBC 47% NDP 42% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 CPBC 47% NDP 42% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 CPBC 47% NDP 42% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 CPBC 48% NDP 41% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 CPBC 48% NDP 41% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 CPBC 48% NDP 41% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 42% CPBC 41% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 43% CPBC 41% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 43% CPBC 41% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP 43% CPBC 41% ONE 16% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP 42% CPBC 41% ONE 16% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 NDP 46% CPBC 43% ONE 2% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 NDP 46% CPBC 42% ONE 2% BCG 1% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-12-20

Odds of winning | Vernon-Lumby

BCU <1% CPBC 30% NDP 70% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG December 20, 2025 2024-03-26 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC 68% NDP 32% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 CPBC 69% NDP 31% BCG <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 CPBC 70% NDP 30% BCG <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 CPBC 65% NDP 35% BCG <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 CPBC 90% NDP 10% BCG <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 CPBC 89% NDP 11% BCG <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 99% NDP 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 CPBC 96% NDP 4% BCG <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 CPBC 97% NDP 3% BCG <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC 99% NDP 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 CPBC 99% NDP 1% BCG <1% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 CPBC 99% NDP 1% BCG <1% 2025-12-20 2024-03-26 CPBC 99% NDP 1% BCG <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 CPBC 82% NDP 18% BCG <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 CPBC 83% NDP 17% BCG <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 CPBC 84% NDP 16% BCG <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 CPBC 85% NDP 15% BCG <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 CPBC 85% NDP 15% BCG <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 CPBC 89% NDP 11% BCG <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 65% CPBC 35% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 68% CPBC 32% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 63% CPBC 37% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 61% CPBC 39% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 56% CPBC 44% BCG <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 69% CPBC 31% BCG <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 70% CPBC 30% BCG <1% 2024-09-26