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British columbia

Vernon-Lumby


MLA: Harwinder Sandhu (NDP)
Latest projection: November 10, 2024
Toss up
Vernon-Lumby 43% ± 0%▲ NDP 41% ± 0% CPBC 16% ± 0% IND NDP 2024 42.69% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 10, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Vernon-Lumby 68%▲ NDP 32%▼ CPBC <1% INDOdds of winning | November 10, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Vernon-Lumby

CPBC 41% ± 0% NDP 43% ± 0% IND 16% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Vernon-Lumby 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP IND November 10, 2024 2023-12-31 CPBC 35% NDP 32% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 CPBC 36% NDP 33% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 CPBC 39% NDP 30% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 CPBC 40% NDP 32% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 CPBC 46% NDP 30% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 CPBC 44% NDP 32% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 CPBC 44% NDP 32% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 CPBC 46% NDP 31% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 CPBC 47% NDP 31% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 CPBC 48% NDP 31% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC 54% NDP 34% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC 49% NDP 34% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC 49% NDP 34% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 CPBC 50% NDP 35% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 CPBC 51% NDP 34% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 CPBC 51% NDP 34% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 CPBC 51% NDP 34% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 CPBC 51% NDP 34% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 58% NDP 38% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 CPBC 57% NDP 38% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 CPBC 57% NDP 38% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC 58% NDP 38% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC 58% NDP 38% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC 57% NDP 38% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC 57% NDP 39% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC 56% NDP 39% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 CPBC 56% NDP 39% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 CPBC 55% NDP 40% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC 56% NDP 40% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC 56% NDP 40% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 CPBC 55% NDP 40% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC 55% NDP 40% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 CPBC 47% NDP 42% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 CPBC 47% NDP 42% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 CPBC 47% NDP 42% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 CPBC 48% NDP 41% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 CPBC 48% NDP 41% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 CPBC 48% NDP 41% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 42% CPBC 41% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 43% CPBC 41% 2024-11-10

Odds of winning | Vernon-Lumby

BCU <1% CPBC 32% NDP 68% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG November 10, 2024 2023-12-31 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 BCG <1% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC 68% NDP 32% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC 69% NDP 31% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 CPBC 70% NDP 30% BCG <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 CPBC 65% NDP 35% BCG <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 CPBC 90% NDP 10% BCG <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 CPBC 89% NDP 11% BCG <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 CPBC 99% NDP 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 96% NDP 4% BCG <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 CPBC 97% NDP 3% BCG <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 CPBC 99% NDP 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-11-10 2023-12-31 CPBC 99% NDP 1% BCG <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 CPBC 99% NDP 1% BCG <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 CPBC 99% NDP 1% BCG <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 CPBC 82% NDP 18% BCG <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 CPBC 83% NDP 17% BCG <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 CPBC 84% NDP 16% BCG <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 CPBC 85% NDP 15% BCG <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 CPBC 85% NDP 15% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC 89% NDP 11% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 65% CPBC 35% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 68% CPBC 32% BCG <1% 2024-09-21

Recent electoral history | Vernon-Lumby



2017 2020 2024 Proj. NDP 43% ± 0% 30.0% 36.7% 42.7% CPBC 41% ± 0% 0.0% 13.0% 41.0% IND 16% ± 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% LIB 0% ± 0% 47.1% 34.2% 0.0% BCG 0% ± 0% 21.7% 16.1% 0.0%
Data from 2017 and 2020 are those transposed onto the new electoral map.