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Abbotsford South

Latest update: February 18, 2026
C
MLA: Bruce Banman
Conservative Party of BC
CPBC safe
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Recent electoral history | Abbotsford South


2017 2020 2024 Projection CPBC 55% ± 8% 0.0% 2.4% 61.6% NDP 34% ± 7% 26.2% 34.2% 35.2% ONE 6% ± 6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% BCG 3% ± 3% 14.0% 11.1% 0.0% BCU 0% ± 0% 55.4% 45.1% 0.0%

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338Canada Abbotsford South projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Abbotsford South 47% 63% 55% ± 8% ▼ CPBC 27% 41% 34% ± 7% ▼ NDP 0% 12% 6% ± 6% ▲ ONE CPBC 2024 61.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Abbotsford South >99% CPBC <1% NDP <1% ONEOdds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Abbotsford South

BCU 0% ± 0% CPBC 55% ± 8% NDP 34% ± 7% BCG 3% ± 3% ONE 6% ± 6% CEN 2% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Abbotsford South 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 BCU CPBC NDP BCG ONE CEN February 18, 2026 2024-03-26 NDP 32% CPBC 29% BCU 25% BCG 8% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 CPBC 34% NDP 31% BCU 21% BCG 7% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 CPBC 40% NDP 30% BCU 17% BCG 7% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 CPBC 38% NDP 31% BCU 18% BCG 8% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 CPBC 38% NDP 32% BCU 16% BCG 8% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 CPBC 41% NDP 30% BCU 15% BCG 8% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 CPBC 44% NDP 30% BCU 13% BCG 8% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 CPBC 45% NDP 30% BCU 13% BCG 8% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC 55% NDP 32% BCG 7% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC 59% NDP 34% BCG 8% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC 59% NDP 34% BCG 8% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 CPBC 58% NDP 34% BCG 8% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 CPBC 59% NDP 34% BCG 8% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 CPBC 59% NDP 33% BCG 7% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 CPBC 60% NDP 33% BCG 7% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 CPBC 60% NDP 33% BCG 7% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 65% NDP 35% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 CPBC 65% NDP 35% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 CPBC 65% NDP 35% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC 65% NDP 35% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC 65% NDP 35% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC 65% NDP 35% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC 65% NDP 35% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC 64% NDP 36% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 CPBC 64% NDP 36% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 CPBC 63% NDP 37% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC 64% NDP 36% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC 64% NDP 36% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 CPBC 64% NDP 36% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC 64% NDP 36% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 CPBC 64% NDP 36% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 CPBC 60% NDP 40% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 CPBC 60% NDP 40% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 CPBC 60% NDP 40% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 CPBC 60% NDP 40% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 CPBC 60% NDP 40% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC 62% NDP 35% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 CPBC 62% NDP 35% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 CPBC 62% NDP 35% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 CPBC 61% NDP 35% ONE 3% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 CPBC 62% NDP 35% ONE 3% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 CPBC 59% NDP 35% ONE 3% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 CPBC 59% NDP 35% ONE 3% BCG 1% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-12-20 2026-02-05 CPBC 57% NDP 35% ONE 5% CEN 2% BCG 1% BCU 0% 2026-02-05 2026-02-18 CPBC 55% NDP 34% ONE 6% BCG 3% CEN 2% BCU 0% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Abbotsford South

BCU <1% CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG February 18, 2026 2024-03-26 NDP 9% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 37% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 31% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 8% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 12% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 16% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 18% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 19% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 50% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 95% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 98% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 92% CPBC 5% BCG <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 92% CPBC 4% BCG <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 93% CPBC 4% BCG <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 96% CPBC 3% BCG <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 69% CPBC 27% BCG <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 68% NDP 31% BCG <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 CPBC 94% NDP 6% BCG <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 CPBC 86% NDP 14% BCG <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC 87% NDP 13% BCG <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC 96% NDP 4% BCG <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC 99% NDP 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC 99% NDP 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-02-05 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2026-02-05 2026-02-18 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2026-02-18 2024-03-26 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-27