logo
British columbia


Abbotsford South


MLA: Bruce Banman (BCC)


Latest projection: December 5, 2023

NDP likely
Abbotsford South 35% ± 8%▼ 24% ± 7% 23% ± 8%▲ 10% ± 4%▼ 9% ± 5%▲ OTH BCU 2020 44.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 5, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Abbotsford South 97%▼ 2%▲ 1% Odds of winning | December 5, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Abbotsford South

BCU 24% ± 7% BCC 23% ± 8% NDP 35% ± 8% BCG 10% ± 4% OTH 9% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Abbotsford South 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2021► 2021-01-01 2021-05-01 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 BCU BCC NDP BCG OTH

Odds of winning | Abbotsford South

BCU 1% BCC 2% NDP 97% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2021► 2021-01-01 2021-05-01 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 BCU BCC NDP

Recent electoral history | Abbotsford South



2017 2020 Proj. BCU 52.5% 44.7% 24% ± 7% NDP 28.3% 35.4% 35% ± 8% BCG 15.0% 12.0% 10% ± 4% BCC 0.0% 0.0% 23% ± 8% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 9% ± 5%