logo
logo
British columbia

Abbotsford West


MLA: Korky Neufeld (CPBC)
Latest projection: February 9, 2025
CPBC safe
Abbotsford West 58% ± 8% CPBC 37% ± 7% NDP 5% ± 5% IND CPBC 2024 58.35% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 9, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Abbotsford West >99% CPBC <1% NDP <1% INDOdds of winning | February 9, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Abbotsford West

CPBC 58% ± 8% NDP 37% ± 7% IND 5% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Abbotsford West 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP IND February 9, 2025 2023-12-31 NDP 34% CPBC 34% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 36% CPBC 35% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 CPBC 38% NDP 32% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 CPBC 43% NDP 31% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 CPBC 49% NDP 30% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 CPBC 46% NDP 31% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 CPBC 47% NDP 32% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 CPBC 49% NDP 31% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 CPBC 53% NDP 29% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 CPBC 54% NDP 30% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC 60% NDP 34% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC 61% NDP 35% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC 61% NDP 35% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 CPBC 61% NDP 35% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 CPBC 61% NDP 35% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 CPBC 62% NDP 34% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 CPBC 62% NDP 34% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 CPBC 62% NDP 34% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 65% NDP 35% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 CPBC 65% NDP 35% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 CPBC 65% NDP 35% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC 65% NDP 35% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC 65% NDP 35% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC 65% NDP 35% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC 65% NDP 35% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC 64% NDP 36% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 CPBC 64% NDP 36% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 CPBC 64% NDP 36% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC 64% NDP 36% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC 64% NDP 36% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 CPBC 64% NDP 36% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC 64% NDP 36% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 CPBC 64% NDP 36% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 CPBC 59% NDP 41% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 CPBC 59% NDP 41% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 CPBC 59% NDP 41% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 CPBC 59% NDP 41% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 CPBC 59% NDP 41% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC 59% NDP 36% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 CPBC 58% NDP 37% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 CPBC 58% NDP 37% 2025-02-09

Odds of winning | Abbotsford West

BCU <1% CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG February 9, 2025 2023-12-31 NDP 10% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 40% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 35% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 12% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 14% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 11% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 11% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 13% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 40% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 84% CPBC 8% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 75% CPBC 24% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 53% CPBC 47% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 54% CPBC 46% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 52% CPBC 48% BCG <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 58% CPBC 42% BCG <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 CPBC 78% NDP 22% BCG <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 CPBC 95% NDP 5% BCG <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 CPBC 99% NDP 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 98% NDP 2% BCG <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 CPBC 98% NDP 2% BCG <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2023-12-31 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-21

Recent electoral history | Abbotsford West



2017 2020 2024 Proj. CPBC 58% ± 8% 0.0% 8.8% 58.4% NDP 37% ± 7% 31.5% 37.2% 36.9% IND 5% ± 5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% LIB 0% ± 0% 54.6% 45.0% 0.0% BCG 0% ± 0% 10.8% 8.5% 0.0%
Data from 2017 and 2020 are those transposed onto the new electoral map.