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Abbotsford West

Latest update: February 18, 2026
C
MLA: Korky Neufeld
Conservative Party of BC
CPBC likely
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Recent electoral history | Abbotsford West


2017 2020 2024 Projection CPBC 52% ± 8% 0.0% 8.8% 58.4% NDP 36% ± 7% 31.5% 37.2% 36.9% ONE 7% ± 5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% BCG 3% ± 3% 10.8% 8.5% 0.0% BCU 0% ± 0% 54.6% 45.0% 0.0%

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338Canada Abbotsford West projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Abbotsford West 44% 60% 52% ± 8% ▼ CPBC 28% 43% 36% ± 7% NDP 2% 12% 7% ± 5% ONE CPBC 2024 58.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Abbotsford West >99%▲ CPBC <1%▼ NDP <1% ONEOdds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Abbotsford West

BCU 0% ± 0% CPBC 52% ± 8% NDP 36% ± 7% BCG 3% ± 3% ONE 7% ± 5% CEN 2% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Abbotsford West 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 BCU CPBC NDP BCG ONE CEN February 18, 2026 2024-03-26 CPBC 38% NDP 32% BCU 22% BCG 6% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 CPBC 43% NDP 31% BCU 19% BCG 5% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 CPBC 49% NDP 30% BCU 15% BCG 5% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 CPBC 46% NDP 31% BCU 16% BCG 5% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 CPBC 47% NDP 32% BCU 14% BCG 5% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 CPBC 49% NDP 31% BCU 13% BCG 5% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 CPBC 53% NDP 29% BCU 11% BCG 5% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 CPBC 54% NDP 30% BCU 11% BCG 5% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC 60% NDP 34% BCG 5% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC 61% NDP 35% BCG 5% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC 61% NDP 35% BCG 5% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 CPBC 61% NDP 35% BCG 5% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 CPBC 61% NDP 35% BCG 5% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 CPBC 62% NDP 34% BCG 4% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 CPBC 62% NDP 34% BCG 4% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 CPBC 62% NDP 34% BCG 4% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 65% NDP 35% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 CPBC 65% NDP 35% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 CPBC 65% NDP 35% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC 65% NDP 35% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC 65% NDP 35% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC 65% NDP 35% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC 65% NDP 35% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC 64% NDP 36% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 CPBC 64% NDP 36% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 CPBC 64% NDP 36% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC 64% NDP 36% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC 64% NDP 36% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 CPBC 64% NDP 36% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC 64% NDP 36% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 CPBC 64% NDP 36% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 CPBC 59% NDP 41% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 CPBC 59% NDP 41% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 CPBC 59% NDP 41% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 CPBC 59% NDP 41% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 CPBC 59% NDP 41% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC 59% NDP 36% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 CPBC 58% NDP 37% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 CPBC 58% NDP 37% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 CPBC 58% NDP 37% ONE 5% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 CPBC 59% NDP 36% ONE 5% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 CPBC 56% NDP 37% ONE 5% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 CPBC 56% NDP 37% ONE 5% BCG 1% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-12-20 2026-02-05 CPBC 54% NDP 36% ONE 7% CEN 2% BCG 1% BCU 0% 2026-02-05 2026-02-18 CPBC 52% NDP 36% ONE 7% BCG 3% CEN 2% BCU 0% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Abbotsford West

BCU <1% CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG February 18, 2026 2024-03-26 NDP 10% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 40% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 35% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 12% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 14% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 11% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 11% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 13% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 40% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 84% CPBC 8% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 75% CPBC 24% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 53% CPBC 47% BCG <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 54% CPBC 46% BCG <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 52% CPBC 48% BCG <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 58% CPBC 42% BCG <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 CPBC 78% NDP 22% BCG <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 95% NDP 5% BCG <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 CPBC 99% NDP 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 CPBC 98% NDP 2% BCG <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC 98% NDP 2% BCG <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-02-05 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2026-02-05 2026-02-18 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2026-02-18 2024-03-26 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 CPBC 99% NDP 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 CPBC 99% NDP 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 CPBC 99% NDP 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-27