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British columbia

Saanich North and the Islands


MLA: Rob Botterell (BCG)
Latest projection: February 9, 2025
GRN leaning
Saanich North and the Islands 36% ± 7% BCG 32% ± 6% NDP 30% ± 6% CPBC BCG 2024 36.15% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 9, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Saanich North and the Islands 76%▼ BCG 19%▲ NDP 5%▲ CPBC Odds of winning | February 9, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Saanich North and the Islands

CPBC 30% ± 6% NDP 32% ± 6% BCG 36% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Saanich North and the Islands 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG February 9, 2025 2023-12-31 BCG 43% NDP 27% CPBC 18% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 BCG 42% NDP 29% CPBC 18% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 BCG 42% NDP 26% CPBC 22% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 BCG 39% NDP 26% CPBC 24% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 BCG 40% NDP 25% CPBC 24% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 BCG 41% NDP 25% CPBC 22% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 BCG 44% NDP 25% CPBC 20% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 BCG 45% NDP 24% CPBC 21% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 BCG 44% NDP 25% CPBC 22% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 BCG 42% NDP 26% CPBC 23% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 BCG 45% NDP 28% CPBC 26% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 BCG 45% NDP 29% CPBC 26% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 BCG 45% NDP 29% CPBC 26% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 BCG 46% NDP 28% CPBC 26% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 BCG 45% NDP 28% CPBC 27% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 BCG 44% NDP 28% CPBC 28% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 BCG 36% NDP 30% CPBC 29% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 BCG 36% NDP 30% CPBC 29% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 BCG 36% NDP 30% CPBC 30% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 BCG 35% CPBC 31% NDP 29% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 BCG 35% CPBC 31% NDP 29% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 BCG 35% CPBC 31% NDP 29% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 BCG 35% CPBC 31% NDP 29% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 BCG 35% CPBC 31% NDP 29% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 BCG 35% CPBC 31% NDP 29% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 BCG 35% CPBC 30% NDP 30% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 BCG 35% CPBC 30% NDP 30% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 BCG 35% NDP 30% CPBC 30% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 BCG 35% CPBC 30% NDP 30% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 BCG 35% CPBC 30% NDP 29% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 BCG 37% CPBC 29% NDP 29% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 BCG 37% CPBC 29% NDP 29% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 BCG 39% CPBC 28% NDP 28% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 BCG 39% CPBC 28% NDP 28% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 BCG 40% NDP 28% CPBC 27% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 BCG 40% NDP 28% CPBC 27% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 BCG 40% NDP 28% CPBC 27% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 BCG 40% NDP 28% CPBC 27% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 BCG 36% NDP 32% CPBC 30% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 BCG 36% NDP 32% CPBC 30% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 BCG 36% NDP 32% CPBC 30% 2025-02-09

Odds of winning | Saanich North and the Islands

BCU <1% CPBC 5% NDP 19% BCG 76% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG February 9, 2025 2023-12-31 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 98% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 BCG >99% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 BCG >99% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 BCG >99% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 BCG 99% NDP 1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 BCG >99% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 BCG >99% CPBC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 BCG >99% CPBC <1% NDP <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 BCG >99% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 BCG >99% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 BCG >99% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 BCG >99% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 BCG >99% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 BCG >99% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 BCG >99% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 BCG >99% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 BCG >99% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 BCG >99% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 BCG >99% NDP <1% CPBC <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 BCG 85% NDP 10% CPBC 5% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 BCG 85% NDP 9% CPBC 6% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 BCG 82% NDP 10% CPBC 8% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 BCG 77% CPBC 18% NDP 6% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 BCG 78% CPBC 17% NDP 6% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 BCG 78% CPBC 17% NDP 5% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 BCG 76% CPBC 18% NDP 5% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 BCG 76% CPBC 17% NDP 7% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 BCG 76% CPBC 16% NDP 7% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 BCG 81% CPBC 12% NDP 8% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 BCG 81% CPBC 11% NDP 8% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 BCG 81% NDP 10% CPBC 9% 2025-02-09 2023-12-31 BCG 79% CPBC 12% NDP 9% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 BCG 81% CPBC 12% NDP 7% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 BCG 94% CPBC 4% NDP 3% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 BCG 93% CPBC 4% NDP 3% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 BCG 98% CPBC 1% NDP 1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 BCG 98% CPBC 1% NDP 1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 BCG 98% NDP 2% CPBC 1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 BCG 97% NDP 2% CPBC 1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 BCG 98% NDP 1% CPBC 1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 BCG 98% NDP 1% CPBC 1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 BCG 90% NDP 9% CPBC 2% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 BCG 90% NDP 9% CPBC 1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 BCG 76% NDP 19% CPBC 5% 2024-09-21

Recent electoral history | Saanich North and the Islands



2017 2020 2024 Proj. BCG 36% ± 7% 42.1% 52.9% 36.2% NDP 32% ± 6% 30.7% 28.6% 32.2% CPBC 30% ± 6% 0.0% 0.0% 29.8% IND 2% ± 2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% LIB 0% ± 0% 26.2% 18.5% 0.0%
Data from 2017 and 2020 are those transposed onto the new electoral map.