logo
logo
British columbia

Saanich North and the Islands


Latest projection: October 2, 2024
GRN leaning

Candidates | Saanich North and the Islands


BC NDP Sarah Riddell
Conservative Party of BC David Busch
BC Green Party Rob Botterell
Independent Amy Haysom

Candidates are listed on the Elections BC website here. This list will be updated regularly throughout the campaign.

Saanich North and the Islands 35% ± 6% BCG 31% ± 6% CPBC 29% ± 5% NDP 5% ± 4%▲ IND BCG 2020 52.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 2, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Saanich North and the Islands 78% BCG 17% CPBC 5%▼ NDP Odds of winning | October 2, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Saanich North and the Islands

CPBC 31% ± 6% NDP 29% ± 5% BCG 35% ± 6% IND 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Saanich North and the Islands 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-09-15 2024-10-01 2024-10-15 Election 2024 Campaign begins CPBC NDP BCG IND October 2, 2024 2024-09-21 BCG 45% NDP 29% CPBC 26% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 BCG 46% NDP 28% CPBC 26% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 BCG 45% NDP 28% CPBC 27% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 BCG 44% NDP 28% CPBC 28% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 BCG 36% NDP 30% CPBC 29% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 BCG 36% NDP 30% CPBC 29% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 BCG 36% NDP 30% CPBC 30% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 BCG 35% CPBC 31% NDP 29% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 BCG 35% CPBC 31% NDP 29% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 BCG 35% CPBC 31% NDP 29% 2024-10-02

Odds of winning | Saanich North and the Islands

BCU <1% CPBC 17% NDP 5% BCG 78% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-09-15 2024-10-01 2024-10-15 Election 2024 Campaign begins BCU CPBC NDP BCG October 2, 2024 2024-09-21 BCG >99% NDP <1% CPBC <1% BCU <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 BCG >99% NDP <1% CPBC <1% BCU <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 BCG >99% NDP <1% CPBC <1% BCU <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 BCG >99% NDP <1% CPBC <1% BCU <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 BCG 85% NDP 10% CPBC 5% BCU <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 BCG 85% NDP 9% CPBC 6% BCU <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 BCG 82% NDP 10% CPBC 8% BCU <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 BCG 77% CPBC 18% NDP 6% BCU <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 BCG 78% CPBC 17% NDP 6% BCU <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 BCG 78% CPBC 17% NDP 5% BCU <1% 2024-10-02

Recent electoral history | Saanich North and the Islands



2017 2020 Proj. BCG 42.1% 52.9% 35% ± 6% CPBC 0.0% 0.0% 31% ± 6% NDP 30.7% 28.6% 29% ± 5% IND 0.0% 0.0% 5% ± 4% BCU 26.2% 18.5% 0% ± 0%
Data from 2017 and 2020 are those transposed onto new electoral map.