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Surrey-Newton

Latest update: February 18, 2026
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MLA: Jessie Sunner
New Democratic Party
NDP likely
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Recent electoral history | Surrey-Newton


2017 2020 2024 Projection NDP 50% ± 9% 57.6% 62.4% 51.2% CPBC 39% ± 8% 0.0% 0.0% 43.0% ONE 5% ± 5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% BCG 3% ± 3% 7.2% 7.5% 0.0% BCU 0% ± 0% 30.7% 29.9% 0.0%

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338Canada Surrey-Newton projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Surrey-Newton 42% 59% 50% ± 9% ▼ NDP 31% 47% 39% ± 8% ▼ CPBC 0% 10% 5% ± 5% ONE NDP 2024 51.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Surrey-Newton 95%▲ NDP 5%▼ CPBC <1% ONEOdds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Surrey-Newton

BCU 0% ± 0% CPBC 39% ± 8% NDP 50% ± 9% BCG 3% ± 3% ONE 5% ± 5% CEN 3% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Surrey-Newton 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 BCU CPBC NDP BCG ONE CEN February 18, 2026 2024-03-26 NDP 55% CPBC 21% BCU 16% BCG 5% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 54% CPBC 27% BCU 12% BCG 5% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 50% CPBC 35% BCU 9% BCG 5% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 52% CPBC 32% BCU 9% BCG 5% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 52% CPBC 33% BCU 8% BCG 5% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 50% CPBC 35% BCU 8% BCG 6% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 51% CPBC 35% BCU 7% BCG 6% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 51% CPBC 36% BCU 7% BCG 5% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 54% CPBC 40% BCG 5% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 52% CPBC 39% BCU 5% BCG 4% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 52% CPBC 39% BCU 5% BCG 4% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 51% CPBC 42% BCG 5% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 51% CPBC 42% BCG 5% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 51% CPBC 42% BCG 5% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 51% CPBC 42% BCG 5% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 50% CPBC 42% BCG 5% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 52% CPBC 44% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 53% CPBC 43% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 53% CPBC 43% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 52% CPBC 44% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 52% CPBC 44% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 52% CPBC 44% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 52% CPBC 44% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 53% CPBC 43% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 53% CPBC 43% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 54% CPBC 42% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 53% CPBC 43% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 53% CPBC 43% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 53% CPBC 43% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 53% CPBC 43% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 53% CPBC 43% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 54% CPBC 42% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 54% CPBC 41% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 54% CPBC 41% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 54% CPBC 41% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 55% CPBC 41% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 51% CPBC 43% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 51% CPBC 43% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 51% CPBC 43% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP 51% CPBC 43% ONE 6% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP 51% CPBC 43% ONE 6% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 NDP 52% CPBC 42% ONE 3% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 NDP 52% CPBC 42% ONE 3% BCG 1% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-12-20 2026-02-05 NDP 51% CPBC 40% ONE 5% CEN 3% BCG 1% BCU 0% 2026-02-05 2026-02-18 NDP 50% CPBC 39% ONE 5% BCG 3% CEN 3% BCU 0% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Surrey-Newton

BCU <1% CPBC 5% NDP 95% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG February 18, 2026 2024-03-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 97% CPBC 3% BCG <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 97% CPBC 3% BCG <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 90% CPBC 10% BCG <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 91% CPBC 9% BCG <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 91% CPBC 9% BCG <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 90% CPBC 10% BCG <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 90% CPBC 10% BCG <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 88% CPBC 12% BCG <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 93% CPBC 7% BCG <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 93% CPBC 7% BCG <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 87% CPBC 13% BCG <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 87% CPBC 13% BCG <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 88% CPBC 12% BCG <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 90% CPBC 10% BCG <1% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 93% CPBC 7% BCG <1% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP 94% CPBC 6% BCG <1% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP 95% CPBC 5% BCG <1% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 NDP 93% CPBC 7% BCG <1% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 NDP 92% CPBC 8% BCG <1% 2025-12-20 2026-02-05 NDP 94% CPBC 6% BCG <1% 2026-02-05 2026-02-18 NDP 94% CPBC 6% BCG <1% 2026-02-18 2024-03-26 NDP 94% CPBC 6% BCG <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 96% CPBC 4% BCG <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 97% CPBC 3% BCG <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 97% CPBC 3% BCG <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 92% CPBC 8% BCG <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 94% CPBC 6% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 89% CPBC 11% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 85% CPBC 15% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 81% CPBC 19% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 89% CPBC 11% BCG <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 89% CPBC 11% BCG <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 91% CPBC 9% BCG <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 95% CPBC 5% BCG <1% 2024-09-27