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British columbia

Surrey-Serpentine River


MLA: Linda Hepner (CPBC)
Latest projection: February 9, 2025
Toss up
Surrey-Serpentine River 50% ± 8% CPBC 48% ± 8%▲ NDP 3% ± 3% IND CPBC 2024 49.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 9, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Surrey-Serpentine River 63%▼ CPBC 37%▲ NDP <1% INDOdds of winning | February 9, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Surrey-Serpentine River

CPBC 50% ± 8% NDP 48% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Surrey-Serpentine River 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP February 9, 2025 2023-12-31 NDP 47% CPBC 21% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 50% CPBC 22% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 45% CPBC 25% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 44% CPBC 30% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 41% CPBC 38% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 43% CPBC 36% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 43% CPBC 36% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 42% CPBC 39% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 42% CPBC 39% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 42% CPBC 40% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC 47% NDP 47% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC 49% NDP 47% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC 49% NDP 47% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 CPBC 49% NDP 47% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 CPBC 49% NDP 47% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 CPBC 49% NDP 47% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 CPBC 49% NDP 47% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 CPBC 49% NDP 47% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 52% NDP 48% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 CPBC 51% NDP 49% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 CPBC 51% NDP 49% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC 52% NDP 48% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC 52% NDP 48% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC 51% NDP 49% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC 51% NDP 49% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC 51% NDP 49% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 CPBC 50% NDP 50% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 50% CPBC 50% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC 50% NDP 50% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC 51% NDP 49% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 CPBC 50% NDP 50% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC 50% NDP 50% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 CPBC 50% NDP 50% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 51% CPBC 49% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 51% CPBC 49% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 51% CPBC 49% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 51% CPBC 49% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 51% CPBC 49% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC 50% NDP 47% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 CPBC 50% NDP 47% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 CPBC 50% NDP 48% 2025-02-09

Odds of winning | Surrey-Serpentine River

BCU <1% CPBC 63% NDP 37% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG February 9, 2025 2023-12-31 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 98% CPBC 2% BCG <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 64% CPBC 36% BCG <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 84% CPBC 16% BCG <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 86% CPBC 14% BCG <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 68% CPBC 32% BCG <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 65% CPBC 35% BCG <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 64% CPBC 36% BCG <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC 51% NDP 49% BCG <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC 59% NDP 41% BCG <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC 59% NDP 41% BCG <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 CPBC 60% NDP 40% BCG <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 CPBC 60% NDP 40% BCG <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC 61% NDP 39% BCG <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC 62% NDP 38% BCG <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 CPBC 62% NDP 38% BCG <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC 68% NDP 32% BCG <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 CPBC 56% NDP 44% BCG <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 CPBC 57% NDP 43% BCG <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 CPBC 70% NDP 30% BCG <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 CPBC 70% NDP 30% BCG <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 CPBC 67% NDP 33% BCG <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 CPBC 64% NDP 36% BCG <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC 57% NDP 43% BCG <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 CPBC 54% NDP 46% BCG <1% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 52% CPBC 48% BCG <1% 2025-02-09 2023-12-31 CPBC 55% NDP 45% BCG <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 CPBC 59% NDP 41% BCG <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 CPBC 52% NDP 48% BCG <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 CPBC 53% NDP 47% BCG <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 CPBC 52% NDP 48% BCG <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 57% CPBC 43% BCG <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 63% CPBC 37% BCG <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 62% CPBC 38% BCG <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 63% CPBC 37% BCG <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 66% CPBC 34% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC 72% NDP 28% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC 68% NDP 32% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC 63% NDP 37% BCG <1% 2024-09-21

Recent electoral history | Surrey-Serpentine River



2017 2020 2024 Proj. CPBC 50% ± 8% 0.0% 1.9% 49.7% NDP 48% ± 8% 44.4% 51.2% 47.5% IND 3% ± 3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% LIB 0% ± 0% 46.1% 40.0% 0.0% BCG 0% ± 0% 8.7% 6.0% 0.0%
Data from 2017 and 2020 are those transposed onto the new electoral map.