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British columbia

Surrey-Cloverdale


MLA: Elenore Sturko (CPBC)
Latest projection: February 9, 2025
Toss up
Surrey-Cloverdale 48% ± 8% CPBC 46% ± 7% NDP 5% ± 4% BCG CPBC 2024 48.32% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 9, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Surrey-Cloverdale 66%▼ CPBC 34%▲ NDP <1% BCG Odds of winning | February 9, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Surrey-Cloverdale

CPBC 48% ± 8% NDP 46% ± 7% BCG 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Surrey-Cloverdale 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG February 9, 2025 2023-12-31 NDP 48% CPBC 23% BCG 6% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 50% CPBC 23% BCG 6% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 46% CPBC 26% BCG 6% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 44% CPBC 32% BCG 5% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 42% CPBC 39% BCG 5% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 44% CPBC 36% BCG 6% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 45% CPBC 37% BCG 6% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 43% CPBC 39% BCG 6% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 43% CPBC 40% BCG 6% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 44% CPBC 40% BCG 5% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 47% CPBC 46% BCG 6% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC 47% NDP 47% BCG 6% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC 47% NDP 47% BCG 6% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 CPBC 47% NDP 47% BCG 6% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 CPBC 47% NDP 47% BCG 6% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 CPBC 47% NDP 47% BCG 6% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 CPBC 47% NDP 47% BCG 6% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 CPBC 47% NDP 47% BCG 6% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 48% NDP 46% BCG 6% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 47% CPBC 47% BCG 6% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 47% CPBC 47% BCG 6% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC 48% NDP 46% BCG 5% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC 48% NDP 46% BCG 5% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC 48% NDP 47% BCG 5% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC 48% NDP 47% BCG 5% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 47% CPBC 47% BCG 6% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 48% CPBC 47% BCG 6% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 48% CPBC 46% BCG 6% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 48% CPBC 47% BCG 6% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 47% CPBC 47% BCG 6% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 48% CPBC 46% BCG 6% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 48% CPBC 47% BCG 6% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 47% CPBC 46% BCG 6% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 48% CPBC 46% BCG 6% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 49% CPBC 45% BCG 6% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 48% CPBC 45% BCG 6% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 48% CPBC 45% BCG 6% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 49% CPBC 45% BCG 6% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC 49% NDP 45% BCG 5% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 CPBC 48% NDP 46% BCG 5% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 CPBC 48% NDP 46% BCG 5% 2025-02-09

Odds of winning | Surrey-Cloverdale

BCU <1% CPBC 66% NDP 34% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG February 9, 2025 2023-12-31 NDP 93% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 90% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 92% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 81% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 83% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 78% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 96% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 97% CPBC 3% BCG <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 67% CPBC 33% BCG <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 87% CPBC 13% BCG <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 88% CPBC 12% BCG <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 72% CPBC 28% BCG <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 69% CPBC 31% BCG <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 68% CPBC 32% BCG <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 56% CPBC 44% BCG <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC 52% NDP 48% BCG <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC 53% NDP 47% BCG <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 CPBC 51% NDP 49% BCG <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 CPBC 51% NDP 49% BCG <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC 51% NDP 49% BCG <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC 52% NDP 48% BCG <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 CPBC 53% NDP 47% BCG <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC 59% NDP 41% BCG <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 53% CPBC 47% BCG <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 53% CPBC 47% BCG <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 CPBC 61% NDP 39% BCG <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 CPBC 61% NDP 39% BCG <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 CPBC 58% NDP 42% BCG <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 CPBC 55% NDP 45% BCG <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 53% CPBC 47% BCG <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 56% CPBC 44% BCG <1% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 62% CPBC 38% BCG <1% 2025-02-09 2023-12-31 NDP 55% CPBC 45% BCG <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 51% CPBC 49% BCG <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 58% CPBC 42% BCG <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 57% CPBC 43% BCG <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 57% CPBC 43% BCG <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 67% CPBC 33% BCG <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 72% CPBC 28% BCG <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 68% CPBC 32% BCG <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 69% CPBC 31% BCG <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 71% CPBC 29% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC 77% NDP 23% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC 73% NDP 27% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC 66% NDP 34% BCG <1% 2024-09-21

Recent electoral history | Surrey-Cloverdale



2017 2020 2024 Proj. CPBC 48% ± 8% 0.0% 1.9% 48.3% NDP 46% ± 7% 38.5% 53.1% 45.6% BCG 5% ± 4% 14.3% 8.8% 5.4% IND 1% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% LIB 0% ± 0% 44.6% 35.9% 0.0%
Data from 2017 and 2020 are those transposed onto the new electoral map.