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British columbia

BC United





Last update: February 11, 2023

LeaderKevin Falcon
Popular vote in 202033.8%
Current vote projection33.9% ± 5.1%
Current number of MP's27
Current seat projection29 [19-40]

Vote projection | February 11, 2023

22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 28.8% ▼ 2020 33.8% 33.9% ± 5.1% ▼ Max. 39.0% ▼ Probabilities % BCU

Seat projection | February 11, 2023

6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 19 ▼ 2020 28 seats 29 ▼ Max. 40 ▼ Majority 44 seats Probabilities % BCU

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | BC United



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Vancouver-Quilchena BCU safe >99%
2. Kelowna-Lake Country BCU safe >99%
3. Prince George-Valemount BCU safe >99%
4. Kootenay East BCU safe >99%
5. West Vancouver-Capilano BCU safe >99%
6. Peace River North BCU safe >99%
7. Kamloops-South Thompson BCU safe >99%
8. Kelowna-Mission BCU safe >99%
9. Peace River South BCU safe >99%
10. Shuswap BCU safe >99%
11. Delta South BCU safe >99%
12. Cariboo-Chilcotin BCU safe >99%
13. Kelowna West BCU safe >99%
14. Prince George-Mackenzie BCU safe >99%
15. Nechako Lakes BCU likely 99%
16. Cariboo North BCU likely 99%
17. Penticton BCU likely 97%
18. Richmond North Centre BCU likely 97%
19. Surrey South BCU likely 93%
20. Columbia River-Revelstoke BCU likely 93%
21. Vancouver-Langara BCU likely 91%
22. Abbotsford West BCU leaning 89%
23. Skeena BCU leaning 88%
24. Abbotsford South BCU leaning 84%
25. Surrey-White Rock BCU leaning 84%
26. Kamloops-North Thompson BCU leaning 79%
27. Vernon-Monashee BCU leaning 71%
28. Richmond South Centre Toss up 58%
29. Fraser-Nicola Toss up 54%
30. West Vancouver-Sea to Sky Toss up 46%
31. Abbotsford-Mission Toss up 36%
32. Richmond-Steveston Toss up 35%
33. Richmond-Queensborough Toss up 31%
34. Vancouver-False Creek NDP leaning 22%
35. Chilliwack-Kent NDP leaning 21%
36. Surrey-Panorama NDP leaning 19%
37. Parksville-Qualicum NDP leaning 18%
38. Boundary-Similkameen NDP leaning 17%
39. Langley East NDP leaning 12%
40. Chilliwack NDP likely 7%
41. Surrey-Green Timbers NDP likely 4%
42. Langley NDP likely 4%
43. Surrey-Cloverdale NDP likely 4%
44. North Vancouver-Seymour NDP likely 3%
45. Vancouver-Fraserview NDP likely 1%
46. Vancouver-Point Grey NDP likely 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Vancouver-Quilchena BCU safe
2. Kelowna-Lake Country BCU safe
3. Prince George-Valemount BCU safe
4. Kootenay East BCU safe
5. West Vancouver-Capilano BCU safe
6. Peace River North BCU safe
7. Kamloops-South Thompson BCU safe
8. Kelowna-Mission BCU safe
9. Peace River South BCU safe
10. Shuswap BCU safe
11. Delta South BCU safe
12. Cariboo-Chilcotin BCU safe
13. Kelowna West BCU safe
14. Prince George-Mackenzie BCU safe
15. Nechako Lakes BCU likely
16. Cariboo North BCU likely
17. Penticton BCU likely
18. Richmond North Centre BCU likely
19. Surrey South BCU likely
20. Columbia River-Revelstoke BCU likely
21. Vancouver-Langara BCU likely
22. Abbotsford West BCU leaning
23. Skeena BCU leaning
24. Abbotsford South BCU leaning
25. Surrey-White Rock BCU leaning
26. Kamloops-North Thompson BCU leaning
27. Vernon-Monashee BCU leaning
28. Richmond South Centre Toss up
29. Fraser-Nicola Toss up
30. West Vancouver-Sea to Sky Toss up
31. Abbotsford-Mission Toss up
32. Richmond-Steveston Toss up
33. Richmond-Queensborough Toss up
34. Vancouver-False Creek NDP leaning
35. Chilliwack-Kent NDP leaning
36. Surrey-Panorama NDP leaning
37. Parksville-Qualicum NDP leaning
38. Boundary-Similkameen NDP leaning
39. Langley East NDP leaning
40. Chilliwack NDP likely
41. Surrey-Green Timbers NDP likely
42. Langley NDP likely
43. Surrey-Cloverdale NDP likely
44. North Vancouver-Seymour NDP likely
45. Vancouver-Fraserview NDP likely
46. Vancouver-Point Grey NDP likely