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British columbia

BC United





Last update: March 26, 2024

LeaderKevin Falcon
Popular vote in 202033.8%
Current vote projection18.7% ± 3.8%
Current number of MP's29
Current seat projection4 [-3-16]

Vote projection | March 26, 2024

10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 14.9% 18.7% ± 3.8% Max. 22.5% Probabilities % BCU

Seat projection | March 26, 2024

0 5 10 15 20 25 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 4 Max. 16 Probabilities % BCU

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | BC United



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. West Vancouver-Capilano BCU leaning 86%
2. Vancouver-Quilchena BCU leaning 78%
3. Delta South BCU leaning 73%
4. Surrey South Toss up 49%
5. Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream Toss up 43%
6. Kootenay-Rockies Toss up 41%
7. Prince George-North Cariboo Toss up 34%
8. Prince George-Valemount Toss up 34%
9. Prince George-Mackenzie Toss up 32%
10. Cariboo-Chilcotin Toss up 27%
11. Kelowna-Mission Toss up 25%
12. Vancouver-Yaletown NDP leaning 23%
13. Richmond-Bridgeport NDP leaning 19%
14. Kelowna Centre Toss up 15%
15. West Kelowna-Peachland BCC leaning 13%
16. Langley-Abbotsford Toss up 12%
17. Skeena NDP leaning 10%
18. West Vancouver-Sea to Sky GRN leaning 10%
19. Surrey-White Rock NDP leaning 9%
20. Nechako Lakes BCC leaning 5%
21. Salmon Arm-Shuswap BCC leaning 5%
22. Abbotsford South Toss up 4%
23. Peace River North BCC likely 3%
24. Richmond-Queensborough Toss up 3%
25. Peace River South BCC likely 2%
26. Columbia River-Revelstoke BCC leaning 1%
27. Penticton-Summerland Toss up 1%
28. Kamloops Centre NDP leaning 1%
29. Richmond Centre NDP likely 1%
30. Vancouver-Langara NDP likely 1%
31. Kamloops-North Thompson Toss up 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. West Vancouver-Capilano BCU leaning
2. Vancouver-Quilchena BCU leaning
3. Delta South BCU leaning
4. Surrey South Toss up
5. Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream Toss up
6. Kootenay-Rockies Toss up
7. Prince George-North Cariboo Toss up
8. Prince George-Valemount Toss up
9. Prince George-Mackenzie Toss up
10. Cariboo-Chilcotin Toss up
11. Kelowna-Mission Toss up
12. Vancouver-Yaletown NDP leaning
13. Richmond-Bridgeport NDP leaning
14. Kelowna Centre Toss up
15. West Kelowna-Peachland BCC leaning
16. Langley-Abbotsford Toss up
17. Skeena NDP leaning
18. West Vancouver-Sea to Sky GRN leaning
19. Surrey-White Rock NDP leaning
20. Nechako Lakes BCC leaning
21. Salmon Arm-Shuswap BCC leaning
22. Abbotsford South Toss up
23. Peace River North BCC likely
24. Richmond-Queensborough Toss up
25. Peace River South BCC likely
26. Columbia River-Revelstoke BCC leaning
27. Penticton-Summerland Toss up
28. Kamloops Centre NDP leaning
29. Richmond Centre NDP likely
30. Vancouver-Langara NDP likely
31. Kamloops-North Thompson Toss up