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Quebec

La Pinière


MNA: Linda Caron

Latest projection: November 15, 2024
Safe LIB hold
La Pinière 44% ± 8%▲ LIB 22% ± 6%▲ PQ 14% ± 4%▼ CAQ 9% ± 4%▼ CPQ 8% ± 3% QS 2% ± 2% IND LIB 2022 38.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% La Pinière >99% LIB <1% PQ <1% CAQ Odds of winning | November 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | La Pinière

LIB 44% ± 8% PQ 22% ± 6% CAQ 14% ± 4% QS 8% ± 3% CPQ 9% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | La Pinière 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 LIB 36% CAQ 36% CPQ 11% QS 10% PQ 6% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 LIB 35% CAQ 35% CPQ 11% QS 10% PQ 6% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 LIB 35% CAQ 34% CPQ 13% QS 10% PQ 5% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 LIB 35% CAQ 34% CPQ 14% QS 10% PQ 5% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 LIB 35% CAQ 34% CPQ 14% QS 10% PQ 5% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 LIB 35% CAQ 34% CPQ 13% QS 10% PQ 5% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 LIB 35% CAQ 34% CPQ 13% QS 10% PQ 5% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 LIB 35% CAQ 34% CPQ 13% QS 10% PQ 5% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 LIB 35% CAQ 34% CPQ 13% QS 9% PQ 5% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 LIB 34% CAQ 34% CPQ 14% QS 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 LIB 34% CAQ 34% CPQ 13% QS 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 LIB 34% CAQ 34% CPQ 13% QS 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 34% LIB 34% CPQ 13% QS 9% PQ 7% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 34% LIB 34% CPQ 15% QS 8% PQ 6% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 34% LIB 34% CPQ 15% QS 8% PQ 6% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 34% LIB 33% CPQ 16% QS 8% PQ 6% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 34% LIB 33% CPQ 16% QS 8% PQ 6% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 34% LIB 33% CPQ 16% QS 8% PQ 6% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 34% LIB 33% CPQ 16% QS 8% PQ 6% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 33% LIB 33% CPQ 15% QS 9% PQ 7% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 34% LIB 33% CPQ 15% QS 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 34% LIB 33% CPQ 15% QS 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 34% LIB 33% CPQ 15% QS 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 34% LIB 33% CPQ 15% QS 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 33% LIB 32% CPQ 15% PQ 9% QS 9% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 35% LIB 29% CPQ 15% QS 9% PQ 9% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 35% LIB 29% CPQ 15% QS 9% PQ 9% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 35% LIB 29% CPQ 15% QS 9% PQ 9% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 LIB 35% CAQ 31% CPQ 12% PQ 10% QS 9% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 LIB 35% CAQ 32% CPQ 12% PQ 10% QS 9% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 LIB 36% CAQ 32% CPQ 12% PQ 10% QS 9% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 LIB 36% CAQ 30% CPQ 12% PQ 12% QS 9% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 LIB 35% CAQ 31% CPQ 12% PQ 12% QS 9% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 LIB 35% CAQ 31% CPQ 12% PQ 12% QS 9% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 LIB 36% CAQ 31% PQ 12% CPQ 11% QS 9% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 LIB 36% CAQ 31% PQ 12% CPQ 11% QS 9% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 LIB 34% CAQ 32% PQ 12% CPQ 11% QS 9% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 LIB 38% CAQ 31% CPQ 10% QS 10% PQ 8% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 LIB 38% CAQ 31% QS 10% CPQ 9% PQ 9% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 LIB 38% CAQ 31% QS 10% CPQ 9% PQ 9% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 LIB 39% CAQ 31% QS 11% PQ 10% CPQ 8% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 LIB 38% CAQ 31% QS 11% PQ 10% CPQ 8% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 LIB 40% CAQ 31% QS 11% PQ 9% CPQ 7% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 LIB 39% CAQ 32% PQ 10% QS 10% CPQ 7% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 LIB 39% CAQ 32% PQ 10% QS 10% CPQ 7% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 LIB 36% CAQ 31% PQ 12% QS 10% CPQ 8% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 LIB 40% CAQ 27% CPQ 10% PQ 10% QS 10% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 LIB 40% CAQ 27% CPQ 10% PQ 10% QS 10% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 LIB 40% CAQ 27% PQ 11% CPQ 10% QS 9% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB 42% CAQ 21% PQ 14% CPQ 10% QS 9% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 LIB 41% CAQ 20% PQ 17% QS 10% CPQ 10% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 LIB 43% PQ 19% CAQ 16% CPQ 10% QS 10% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 LIB 43% PQ 18% CAQ 18% CPQ 10% QS 9% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 43% PQ 20% CAQ 15% CPQ 10% QS 9% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 43% PQ 22% CAQ 15% QS 9% CPQ 9% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 45% PQ 22% CAQ 15% CPQ 9% QS 8% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 45% PQ 22% CAQ 14% CPQ 9% QS 7% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 44% PQ 21% CAQ 16% CPQ 8% QS 7% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 43% PQ 22% CAQ 16% CPQ 9% QS 8% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB 43% PQ 19% CAQ 16% CPQ 10% QS 9% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB 43% PQ 21% CAQ 15% CPQ 10% QS 8% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 44% PQ 22% CAQ 14% CPQ 9% QS 8% 2024-11-15

Odds of winning | La Pinière

LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 LIB 51% CAQ 49% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 LIB 50% CAQ 50% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 LIB 55% CAQ 45% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 LIB 54% CAQ 46% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 LIB 54% CAQ 46% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 LIB 57% CAQ 43% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 LIB 57% CAQ 43% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 LIB 58% CAQ 42% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 LIB 59% CAQ 41% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 LIB 51% CAQ 49% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 LIB 51% CAQ 49% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 LIB 51% CAQ 49% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 51% LIB 49% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 51% LIB 49% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 51% LIB 49% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 53% LIB 47% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 53% LIB 47% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 55% LIB 45% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 57% LIB 43% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 52% LIB 48% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 56% LIB 44% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 58% LIB 42% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 56% LIB 44% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 56% LIB 44% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 56% LIB 44% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 83% LIB 17% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 81% LIB 19% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 81% LIB 19% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 LIB 74% CAQ 26% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 LIB 70% CAQ 30% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 LIB 73% CAQ 27% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 LIB 81% CAQ 19% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 LIB 77% CAQ 23% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 LIB 76% CAQ 24% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 LIB 78% CAQ 22% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 LIB 77% CAQ 23% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 LIB 65% CAQ 35% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 LIB 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 LIB 85% CAQ 15% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 LIB 85% CAQ 15% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 LIB 89% CAQ 11% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 LIB 86% CAQ 14% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 LIB 95% CAQ 5% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 LIB 85% CAQ 15% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 LIB 85% CAQ 15% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 LIB 84% CAQ 16% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 LIB 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 LIB 99% CAQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 LIB 99% CAQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 LIB >99% PQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB >99% PQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB >99% PQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB >99% PQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB >99% PQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB >99% PQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-11-15

Recent electoral history | La Pinière



2014 2018 2022 Proj. LIB 58.4% 47.1% 38.5% 44% ± 8% CAQ 12.7% 28.8% 31.2% 14% ± 4% CPQ 0.6% 1.3% 10.2% 9% ± 4% QS 3.8% 10.0% 10.0% 8% ± 3% PQ 0.0% 8.9% 7.8% 22% ± 6% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.