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Quebec

Vaudreuil


MNA: Marie-Claude Nichols

Latest projection: December 8, 2024
Safe LIB hold
Vaudreuil 42% ± 8% LIB 20% ± 5%▼ PQ 16% ± 5%▲ CAQ 12% ± 4% CPQ 7% ± 3% QS 2% ± 2% IND LIB 2022 34.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 8, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Vaudreuil >99% LIB <1% PQ <1% CAQ Odds of winning | December 8, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Vaudreuil

LIB 42% ± 8% PQ 20% ± 5% CAQ 16% ± 5% QS 7% ± 3% CPQ 12% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Vaudreuil 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 40% LIB 32% QS 11% CPQ 9% PQ 6% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 40% LIB 32% QS 11% CPQ 9% PQ 5% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 39% LIB 31% CPQ 11% QS 11% PQ 5% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 39% LIB 31% CPQ 11% QS 11% PQ 5% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 39% LIB 31% CPQ 11% QS 11% PQ 5% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 39% LIB 31% CPQ 11% QS 11% PQ 5% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 38% LIB 32% CPQ 11% QS 11% PQ 5% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 38% LIB 32% CPQ 11% QS 11% PQ 5% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 38% LIB 32% CPQ 11% QS 11% PQ 5% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 38% LIB 32% CPQ 11% QS 10% PQ 5% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 38% LIB 32% CPQ 11% QS 10% PQ 5% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 38% LIB 32% CPQ 11% QS 10% PQ 5% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 38% LIB 32% CPQ 11% QS 10% PQ 6% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 38% LIB 32% CPQ 12% QS 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 38% LIB 32% CPQ 12% QS 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 38% LIB 31% CPQ 13% QS 9% PQ 5% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 38% LIB 31% CPQ 13% QS 9% PQ 5% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 38% LIB 31% CPQ 13% QS 9% PQ 5% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 38% LIB 31% CPQ 13% QS 9% PQ 5% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 37% LIB 32% CPQ 12% QS 10% PQ 6% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 38% LIB 31% CPQ 12% QS 10% PQ 6% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 38% LIB 31% CPQ 12% QS 10% PQ 5% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 38% LIB 31% CPQ 12% QS 10% PQ 5% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 38% LIB 31% CPQ 12% QS 10% PQ 5% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 36% LIB 30% CPQ 12% QS 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 38% LIB 27% CPQ 12% QS 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 38% LIB 28% CPQ 12% QS 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 38% LIB 28% CPQ 12% QS 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 36% LIB 30% CPQ 13% QS 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 37% LIB 30% CPQ 13% QS 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 37% LIB 30% CPQ 13% QS 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 35% LIB 30% CPQ 13% QS 10% PQ 9% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 36% LIB 30% CPQ 12% QS 10% PQ 9% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 36% LIB 30% CPQ 12% QS 10% PQ 9% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 36% LIB 30% CPQ 12% QS 10% PQ 9% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 36% LIB 30% CPQ 12% QS 10% PQ 10% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 36% LIB 30% CPQ 12% PQ 10% QS 10% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 LIB 34% CAQ 33% CPQ 12% QS 9% PQ 8% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 LIB 34% CAQ 33% CPQ 10% QS 9% PQ 9% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 LIB 34% CAQ 33% CPQ 10% QS 9% PQ 9% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 LIB 34% CAQ 34% QS 10% PQ 10% CPQ 9% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 34% LIB 33% QS 11% PQ 10% CPQ 9% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 35% LIB 33% QS 10% PQ 9% CPQ 9% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 36% LIB 33% PQ 10% QS 9% CPQ 9% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 36% LIB 33% PQ 10% QS 9% CPQ 9% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 33% LIB 31% PQ 11% CPQ 11% QS 9% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 LIB 36% CAQ 29% CPQ 12% PQ 10% QS 9% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 LIB 36% CAQ 29% CPQ 12% PQ 10% QS 9% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 LIB 37% CAQ 28% CPQ 12% PQ 10% QS 8% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB 39% CAQ 23% PQ 14% CPQ 11% QS 9% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 LIB 38% CAQ 21% PQ 17% CPQ 11% QS 9% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 LIB 39% CAQ 19% PQ 18% CPQ 12% QS 9% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 LIB 39% CAQ 21% PQ 17% CPQ 11% QS 8% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 39% PQ 19% CAQ 19% CPQ 11% QS 8% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 40% PQ 21% CAQ 18% CPQ 10% QS 8% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 43% PQ 21% CAQ 17% CPQ 10% QS 7% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 43% PQ 20% CAQ 16% CPQ 10% QS 7% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 43% PQ 19% CAQ 19% CPQ 10% QS 7% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 42% PQ 20% CAQ 18% CPQ 10% QS 7% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB 41% CAQ 19% PQ 17% CPQ 12% QS 8% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB 41% PQ 18% CAQ 17% CPQ 13% QS 7% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 41% PQ 20% CAQ 16% CPQ 12% QS 7% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB 42% PQ 21% CAQ 15% CPQ 12% QS 7% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB 42% PQ 20% CAQ 16% CPQ 12% QS 7% 2024-12-08

Odds of winning | Vaudreuil

LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 88% LIB 12% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 91% LIB 9% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 88% LIB 12% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 88% LIB 12% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 88% LIB 12% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 87% LIB 13% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 83% LIB 17% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 83% LIB 17% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 83% LIB 17% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 84% LIB 16% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 83% LIB 17% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 83% LIB 17% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 83% LIB 17% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 83% LIB 17% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 83% LIB 17% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 84% LIB 16% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 84% LIB 16% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 85% LIB 15% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 87% LIB 13% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 80% LIB 20% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 83% LIB 17% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 84% LIB 16% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 83% LIB 17% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 83% LIB 17% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 83% LIB 17% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 96% LIB 4% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 96% LIB 4% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 96% LIB 4% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 84% LIB 16% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 88% LIB 12% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 86% LIB 14% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 79% LIB 21% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 84% LIB 16% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 84% LIB 16% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 83% LIB 17% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 82% LIB 18% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 82% LIB 18% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 LIB 66% CAQ 34% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 LIB 59% CAQ 41% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 LIB 59% CAQ 41% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 LIB 51% CAQ 49% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 63% LIB 37% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 60% LIB 40% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 72% LIB 28% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 73% LIB 27% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 67% LIB 33% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 LIB 91% CAQ 9% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 LIB 91% CAQ 9% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 LIB 95% CAQ 5% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB >99% PQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB >99% PQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB >99% PQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB >99% PQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB >99% PQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-12-08

Recent electoral history | Vaudreuil



2014 2018 2022 Proj. LIB 58.9% 39.9% 34.2% 42% ± 8% CAQ 16.5% 32.6% 32.8% 16% ± 5% CPQ 0.4% 1.7% 11.6% 12% ± 4% QS 4.9% 10.0% 9.2% 7% ± 3% PQ 17.0% 10.1% 7.7% 20% ± 5% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.