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Quebec

Hull


MNA: Suzanne Tremblay (CAQ)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
Likely LIB gain
Hull 33% ± 8%▲ LIB 21% ± 6% PQ 18% ± 5% CAQ 17% ± 5%▼ QS 8% ± 3% CPQ 2% ± 2% IND CAQ 2022 34.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Hull 99%▲ LIB 1%▼ PQ <1% CAQ Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Hull

LIB 33% ± 8% PQ 21% ± 6% CAQ 18% ± 5% QS 17% ± 5% CPQ 8% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Hull 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ 35% LIB 26% QS 21% PQ 10% CPQ 7% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 34% LIB 26% QS 20% PQ 11% CPQ 6% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 34% LIB 26% QS 20% PQ 11% CPQ 6% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 34% LIB 25% QS 23% PQ 12% CPQ 5% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 34% LIB 25% QS 24% PQ 12% CPQ 5% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 30% LIB 25% QS 22% PQ 17% CPQ 4% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 31% LIB 24% QS 22% PQ 18% CPQ 4% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 31% LIB 24% QS 22% PQ 18% CPQ 4% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 33% LIB 22% QS 22% PQ 16% CPQ 5% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 31% LIB 25% QS 21% PQ 14% CPQ 7% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 31% LIB 25% QS 21% PQ 14% CPQ 7% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 LIB 27% CAQ 25% QS 20% PQ 19% CPQ 6% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB 29% CAQ 22% QS 21% PQ 19% CPQ 6% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 LIB 27% PQ 23% QS 22% CAQ 21% CPQ 6% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 LIB 29% QS 23% PQ 23% CAQ 18% CPQ 5% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 LIB 29% PQ 23% QS 22% CAQ 20% CPQ 5% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 29% CAQ 22% QS 22% PQ 20% CPQ 5% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 29% QS 22% PQ 22% CAQ 21% CPQ 5% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 31% PQ 22% CAQ 21% QS 20% CPQ 5% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 31% PQ 21% CAQ 20% QS 18% CPQ 6% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 31% CAQ 21% PQ 21% QS 19% CPQ 6% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 31% CAQ 21% QS 20% PQ 19% CPQ 6% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB 30% CAQ 21% QS 20% PQ 19% CPQ 7% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB 31% CAQ 20% PQ 19% QS 19% CPQ 8% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 31% PQ 22% QS 19% CAQ 18% CPQ 8% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB 31% PQ 23% QS 18% CAQ 17% CPQ 8% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB 32% PQ 21% QS 18% CAQ 18% CPQ 8% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 LIB 33% PQ 21% CAQ 18% QS 17% CPQ 8% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Hull

LIB 99% PQ 1% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 92% LIB 8% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 92% LIB 8% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 93% LIB 5% QS 2% PQ <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 93% LIB 4% QS 3% PQ <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 82% LIB 16% QS 2% PQ <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 90% LIB 8% QS 2% PQ <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 90% LIB 8% QS 2% PQ <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 98% LIB 1% QS 1% PQ <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 87% LIB 12% QS 1% PQ <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 87% LIB 13% QS 1% PQ <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 LIB 66% CAQ 30% QS 3% PQ 1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB 88% CAQ 7% QS 4% PQ 1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 LIB 73% PQ 12% QS 9% CAQ 6% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 LIB 82% QS 10% PQ 7% CAQ <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 LIB 82% PQ 12% QS 5% CAQ 1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 86% CAQ 7% QS 6% PQ 2% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 86% QS 7% PQ 5% CAQ 3% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 95% PQ 3% CAQ 1% QS 1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 97% PQ 2% CAQ 1% QS <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 98% CAQ 1% PQ 1% QS <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 98% CAQ 1% QS 1% PQ <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB 96% QS 2% CAQ 1% PQ <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB 98% CAQ 1% PQ 1% QS <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 97% PQ 2% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB 96% PQ 4% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB 98% PQ 2% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 LIB 99% PQ 1% CAQ <1% QS <1% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Hull



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 10.9% 26.4% 34.6% 18% ± 5% LIB 55.2% 33.7% 25.9% 33% ± 8% QS 11.0% 18.5% 20.7% 17% ± 5% PQ 21.8% 13.6% 9.8% 21% ± 6% CPQ 0.0% 1.5% 6.9% 8% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%