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Quebec

Verdun


MNA: Alejandra Zaga-Mendez

Latest projection: November 15, 2024
Leaning LIB gain
Verdun 32% ± 8%▲ LIB 27% ± 7% QS 19% ± 5%▲ PQ 13% ± 4%▼ CAQ 7% ± 3% CPQ 2% ± 2% IND QS 2022 30.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Verdun 79%▲ LIB 21%▼ QS <1% PQ Odds of winning | November 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Verdun

LIB 32% ± 8% PQ 19% ± 5% CAQ 13% ± 4% QS 27% ± 7% CPQ 7% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Verdun 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 29% QS 26% LIB 26% PQ 9% CPQ 7% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 30% QS 26% LIB 25% PQ 8% CPQ 7% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 29% QS 26% LIB 25% CPQ 9% PQ 8% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 29% LIB 26% QS 26% CPQ 8% PQ 8% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 29% LIB 26% QS 25% CPQ 8% PQ 8% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 29% LIB 27% QS 26% CPQ 8% PQ 8% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 28% LIB 27% QS 26% CPQ 8% PQ 8% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 28% LIB 27% QS 26% CPQ 8% PQ 8% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 28% LIB 27% QS 25% CPQ 8% PQ 8% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 28% LIB 27% QS 25% PQ 9% CPQ 8% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 QS 29% CAQ 28% LIB 22% PQ 11% CPQ 5% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 QS 29% CAQ 29% LIB 22% PQ 11% CPQ 5% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 QS 29% CAQ 29% LIB 22% PQ 11% CPQ 5% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 29% QS 29% LIB 22% PQ 11% CPQ 5% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 29% QS 29% LIB 22% PQ 11% CPQ 5% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 29% QS 29% LIB 22% PQ 11% CPQ 5% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 29% QS 29% LIB 22% PQ 11% CPQ 5% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 30% QS 28% LIB 22% PQ 11% CPQ 5% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 30% QS 28% LIB 22% PQ 11% CPQ 5% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 QS 30% CAQ 30% LIB 21% PQ 11% CPQ 4% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 30% QS 30% LIB 21% PQ 11% CPQ 4% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 31% QS 30% LIB 21% PQ 11% CPQ 5% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 QS 30% CAQ 29% LIB 23% PQ 10% CPQ 4% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 30% QS 29% LIB 23% PQ 11% CPQ 4% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 QS 29% CAQ 28% LIB 22% PQ 14% CPQ 4% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 QS 29% CAQ 28% LIB 22% PQ 14% CPQ 4% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 QS 29% CAQ 28% LIB 21% PQ 14% CPQ 4% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 QS 29% CAQ 28% LIB 21% PQ 14% CPQ 4% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 QS 29% CAQ 29% LIB 22% PQ 13% CPQ 4% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 QS 29% CAQ 29% LIB 23% PQ 11% CPQ 4% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 29% QS 27% LIB 27% PQ 11% CPQ 4% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 QS 28% CAQ 27% LIB 26% PQ 13% CPQ 4% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 QS 29% LIB 28% CAQ 24% PQ 13% CPQ 4% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 QS 28% LIB 28% CAQ 25% PQ 12% CPQ 4% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 QS 28% LIB 28% CAQ 25% PQ 12% CPQ 4% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 QS 28% LIB 28% CAQ 25% PQ 13% CPQ 4% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 LIB 27% QS 27% CAQ 27% PQ 13% CPQ 4% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 QS 31% LIB 29% CAQ 23% PQ 8% CPQ 5% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 QS 30% LIB 29% CAQ 23% PQ 9% CPQ 5% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 QS 30% LIB 29% CAQ 23% PQ 9% CPQ 5% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 QS 32% LIB 29% CAQ 23% PQ 10% CPQ 4% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 QS 35% LIB 26% CAQ 23% PQ 10% CPQ 4% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 QS 35% LIB 26% CAQ 24% PQ 10% CPQ 3% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 QS 35% LIB 25% CAQ 24% PQ 11% CPQ 3% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 QS 35% LIB 25% CAQ 24% PQ 11% CPQ 3% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 QS 33% CAQ 24% LIB 24% PQ 11% CPQ 5% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 QS 32% LIB 27% CAQ 23% PQ 10% CPQ 6% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 QS 32% LIB 27% CAQ 23% PQ 10% CPQ 6% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 QS 30% LIB 28% CAQ 23% PQ 10% CPQ 5% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 QS 30% LIB 29% CAQ 22% PQ 10% CPQ 5% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 QS 33% LIB 28% CAQ 18% PQ 14% CPQ 5% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 QS 39% LIB 24% CAQ 14% PQ 14% CPQ 5% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 QS 37% LIB 24% PQ 16% CAQ 16% CPQ 5% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS 37% LIB 24% CAQ 16% PQ 16% CPQ 5% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS 37% LIB 25% PQ 16% CAQ 15% CPQ 4% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 32% QS 29% PQ 17% CAQ 16% CPQ 4% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 33% QS 27% PQ 17% CAQ 15% CPQ 5% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 33% QS 27% PQ 17% CAQ 16% CPQ 4% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 32% QS 29% PQ 17% CAQ 15% CPQ 4% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB 30% QS 29% PQ 17% CAQ 15% CPQ 6% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB 31% QS 27% PQ 17% CAQ 14% CPQ 7% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 32% QS 27% PQ 19% CAQ 13% CPQ 7% 2024-11-15

Odds of winning | Verdun

LIB 79% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS 21% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 56% QS 24% LIB 20% PQ <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 64% QS 23% LIB 13% PQ <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 61% QS 24% LIB 15% PQ <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 59% LIB 22% QS 19% PQ <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 59% LIB 22% QS 19% PQ <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 52% LIB 29% QS 19% PQ <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 47% LIB 33% QS 20% PQ <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 46% LIB 34% QS 20% PQ <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 47% LIB 34% QS 19% PQ <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 48% LIB 35% QS 17% PQ <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 QS 56% CAQ 41% LIB 3% PQ <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 QS 52% CAQ 45% LIB 3% PQ <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 QS 50% CAQ 47% LIB 3% PQ <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 49% QS 48% LIB 3% PQ <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 50% QS 47% LIB 3% PQ <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 51% QS 46% LIB 3% PQ <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 51% QS 46% LIB 3% PQ <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 58% QS 40% LIB 2% PQ <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 61% QS 37% LIB 2% PQ <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 QS 53% CAQ 47% LIB 1% PQ <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 51% QS 49% LIB <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 53% QS 47% LIB <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 QS 50% CAQ 47% LIB 3% PQ <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 50% QS 47% LIB 3% PQ <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 QS 52% CAQ 46% LIB 3% PQ <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 QS 52% CAQ 46% LIB 2% PQ <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 QS 52% CAQ 46% LIB 2% PQ <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 QS 52% CAQ 46% LIB 2% PQ <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 QS 52% CAQ 46% LIB 2% PQ <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 QS 49% CAQ 47% LIB 5% PQ <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 48% QS 29% LIB 22% PQ <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 QS 43% CAQ 30% LIB 27% PQ <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 QS 49% LIB 43% CAQ 9% PQ <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 QS 45% LIB 42% CAQ 13% PQ <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 QS 43% LIB 42% CAQ 15% PQ <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 QS 42% LIB 42% CAQ 15% PQ <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 LIB 37% QS 33% CAQ 31% PQ <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 QS 66% LIB 34% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 QS 56% LIB 41% CAQ 3% PQ <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 QS 56% LIB 41% CAQ 3% PQ <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 QS 69% LIB 30% CAQ 1% PQ <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 QS 93% LIB 6% CAQ 1% PQ <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 QS 93% LIB 6% CAQ 1% PQ <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 QS 95% LIB 4% CAQ 2% PQ <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 QS 95% LIB 3% CAQ 2% PQ <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 QS 94% CAQ 4% LIB 2% PQ <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 QS 81% LIB 18% CAQ 2% PQ <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 QS 81% LIB 18% CAQ 2% PQ <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 QS 63% LIB 34% CAQ 3% PQ <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 QS 60% LIB 39% CAQ 1% PQ <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 QS 82% LIB 18% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 QS >99% LIB <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 QS 99% LIB 1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS 99% LIB 1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS 99% LIB 1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 70% QS 30% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 84% QS 16% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 82% QS 18% PQ <1% CAQ <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 70% QS 30% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB 59% QS 41% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB 77% QS 23% PQ <1% CAQ <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 79% QS 21% PQ <1% CAQ <1% 2024-11-15

Recent electoral history | Verdun



2014 2018 2022 Proj. QS 9.7% 23.9% 30.8% 27% ± 7% LIB 50.6% 35.5% 29.3% 32% ± 8% CAQ 12.2% 20.4% 23.0% 13% ± 4% PQ 24.4% 12.7% 8.3% 19% ± 5% CPQ 0.0% 0.7% 5.4% 7% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.