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Quebec


Verdun


MNA: Alejandra Zaga-Mendez (QS)


Latest projection: September 28, 2023

QS leaning hold
Verdun 32% ± 7%▼ 27% ± 7%▲ 23% ± 6%▼ 10% ± 4%▼ 6% ± 3%▲ QS 2022 30.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 28, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Verdun 81%▼ 18%▲ 2%▼ Odds of winning | September 28, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Verdun

LIB 27% ± 7% PQ 10% ± 4% CAQ 23% ± 6% QS 32% ± 7% QCP 6% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Verdun 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP

Odds of winning | Verdun

LIB 18% PQ <1% CAQ 2% QS 81% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS

Recent electoral history | Verdun



2014 2018 2022 Proj. QS 9.7% 23.9% 30.8% 32% ± 7% LIB 50.6% 35.5% 29.3% 27% ± 7% CAQ 12.2% 20.4% 23.0% 23% ± 6% PQ 24.4% 12.7% 8.3% 10% ± 4% QCP 0.0% 0.7% 5.4% 6% ± 3% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%