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Quebec

Robert-Baldwin


MNA: Brigitte Garceau (LIB)

Latest projection: June 27, 2025
Safe LIB

Recent electoral history | Robert-Baldwin


2014 2018 2022 Proj. LIB 72% ± 7% 87.3% 73.9% 57.8% CPQ 14% ± 5% 0.3% 3.0% 16.0% PQ 5% ± 3% 3.7% 3.3% 2.6% CAQ 4% ± 2% 5.1% 11.3% 9.8% QS 3% ± 2% 1.9% 4.3% 5.0%




338Canada projection for Robert-Baldwin


Robert-Baldwin 72% ± 7%▲ LIB 14% ± 5%▼ CPQ 5% ± 3%▼ PQ 4% ± 2% CAQ 3% ± 2%▼ QS 2% ± 2% IND LIB 2022 57.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Robert-Baldwin >99% LIB <1% CPQ <1% PQ Odds of winning | June 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Robert-Baldwin

LIB 72% ± 7% PQ 5% ± 3% CAQ 4% ± 2% QS 3% ± 2% CPQ 14% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Robert-Baldwin 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 LIB 57% CPQ 16% CAQ 8% PQ 7% QS 7% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 56% CPQ 16% CAQ 9% PQ 7% QS 7% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 57% CPQ 15% CAQ 9% PQ 7% QS 7% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 62% CPQ 15% CAQ 8% PQ 7% QS 6% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 62% CPQ 14% CAQ 7% PQ 7% QS 6% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 62% CPQ 14% CAQ 8% PQ 8% QS 6% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 62% CPQ 14% PQ 8% CAQ 8% QS 6% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB 59% CPQ 17% PQ 7% CAQ 7% QS 6% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB 58% CPQ 19% PQ 7% CAQ 7% QS 6% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 59% CPQ 17% PQ 9% CAQ 6% QS 6% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB 59% CPQ 18% PQ 9% CAQ 6% QS 6% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB 59% CPQ 18% PQ 8% CAQ 6% QS 6% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 LIB 63% CPQ 17% PQ 7% CAQ 5% QS 4% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 LIB 65% CPQ 17% PQ 7% CAQ 5% QS 4% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 LIB 64% CPQ 16% PQ 7% CAQ 5% QS 4% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 LIB 64% CPQ 16% PQ 7% CAQ 5% QS 4% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 LIB 67% CPQ 16% PQ 6% CAQ 5% QS 4% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 LIB 69% CPQ 15% PQ 6% CAQ 4% QS 4% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 LIB 72% CPQ 14% PQ 5% CAQ 4% QS 3% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader

Odds of winning | Robert-Baldwin

LIB >99% CAQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB CAQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader