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Quebec

Robert-Baldwin


MNA: Brigitte Garceau (LIB)

Latest projection: April 26, 2024
Safe LIB hold
Robert-Baldwin 62% ± 9%▲ LIB 15% ± 6% QCP 8% ± 4%▼ CAQ 7% ± 3% PQ 6% ± 3%▼ QS LIB 2022 57.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | April 26, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Robert-Baldwin >99% LIB <1% QCP <1% CAQ Odds of winning | April 26, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Robert-Baldwin

LIB 62% ± 9% PQ 7% ± 3% CAQ 8% ± 4% QS 6% ± 3% QCP 15% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Robert-Baldwin 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP April 26, 2024

Odds of winning | Robert-Baldwin

LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS April 26, 2024

Recent electoral history | Robert-Baldwin



2014 2018 2022 Proj. LIB 87.3% 73.9% 57.8% 62% ± 9% QCP 0.3% 3.0% 16.0% 15% ± 6% CAQ 5.1% 11.3% 9.8% 8% ± 4% QS 1.9% 4.3% 5.0% 6% ± 3% PQ 3.7% 3.3% 2.6% 7% ± 3% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.