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Quebec

Robert-Baldwin


MNA: Brigitte Garceau

Latest projection: December 8, 2024
Safe LIB hold
Robert-Baldwin 59% ± 8% LIB 18% ± 6% CPQ 8% ± 4%▼ PQ 6% ± 3% CAQ 6% ± 3% QS 2% ± 2% IND LIB 2022 57.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 8, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Robert-Baldwin >99% LIB <1% CPQ <1% PQ Odds of winning | December 8, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Robert-Baldwin

LIB 59% ± 8% PQ 8% ± 4% CAQ 6% ± 3% QS 6% ± 3% CPQ 18% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Robert-Baldwin 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 LIB 59% CAQ 13% CPQ 13% QS 4% PQ 3% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 LIB 58% CPQ 13% CAQ 13% QS 4% PQ 3% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 LIB 56% CPQ 16% CAQ 12% QS 3% PQ 2% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 LIB 56% CPQ 16% CAQ 12% QS 3% PQ 2% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 LIB 56% CPQ 16% CAQ 12% QS 3% PQ 2% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 LIB 57% CPQ 16% CAQ 12% QS 3% PQ 2% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 LIB 58% CPQ 16% CAQ 12% QS 3% PQ 2% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 LIB 58% CPQ 16% CAQ 12% QS 3% PQ 2% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 LIB 58% CPQ 16% CAQ 12% QS 3% PQ 2% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 LIB 57% CPQ 16% CAQ 12% QS 3% PQ 3% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 LIB 58% CPQ 15% CAQ 12% QS 3% PQ 3% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 LIB 58% CPQ 14% CAQ 12% QS 3% PQ 3% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 LIB 59% CPQ 14% CAQ 12% PQ 3% QS 3% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 LIB 58% CPQ 16% CAQ 12% PQ 3% QS 3% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 LIB 58% CPQ 16% CAQ 12% PQ 3% QS 3% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 LIB 57% CPQ 16% CAQ 12% PQ 3% QS 2% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 LIB 57% CPQ 16% CAQ 12% PQ 3% QS 2% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 LIB 57% CPQ 16% CAQ 12% PQ 3% QS 2% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 LIB 53% CPQ 14% CAQ 12% PQ 3% QS 3% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 LIB 54% CPQ 14% CAQ 11% QS 4% PQ 3% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 LIB 53% CPQ 14% CAQ 12% QS 4% PQ 3% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 LIB 53% CPQ 14% CAQ 12% QS 4% PQ 3% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 LIB 54% CPQ 14% CAQ 12% QS 4% PQ 3% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 LIB 54% CPQ 14% CAQ 12% QS 4% PQ 3% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 LIB 52% CPQ 14% CAQ 11% PQ 6% QS 4% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 LIB 52% CPQ 13% CAQ 11% PQ 6% QS 4% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 LIB 52% CPQ 13% CAQ 11% PQ 6% QS 4% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 LIB 52% CPQ 13% CAQ 11% PQ 6% QS 4% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 LIB 53% CPQ 13% CAQ 11% PQ 5% QS 4% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 LIB 55% CAQ 14% CPQ 13% PQ 5% QS 4% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 LIB 55% CAQ 14% CPQ 13% PQ 5% QS 4% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 LIB 55% CPQ 13% CAQ 12% PQ 7% QS 4% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 LIB 56% CPQ 13% CAQ 12% PQ 7% QS 4% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 LIB 56% CPQ 13% CAQ 12% PQ 7% QS 4% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 LIB 59% CPQ 12% CAQ 11% PQ 5% QS 4% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 LIB 58% CPQ 12% CAQ 11% PQ 5% QS 4% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 LIB 58% CPQ 12% CAQ 11% PQ 6% QS 4% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 LIB 58% CPQ 16% CAQ 10% QS 5% PQ 3% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 LIB 58% CPQ 15% CAQ 10% QS 5% PQ 3% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 LIB 58% CPQ 15% CAQ 10% QS 5% PQ 3% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 LIB 61% CPQ 14% CAQ 10% QS 6% PQ 3% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 LIB 61% CPQ 14% CAQ 11% QS 6% PQ 3% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 LIB 60% CPQ 14% CAQ 11% QS 6% PQ 3% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 LIB 59% CPQ 14% CAQ 12% QS 6% PQ 3% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 LIB 59% CPQ 14% CAQ 12% QS 6% PQ 3% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 LIB 55% CPQ 16% CAQ 12% QS 6% PQ 3% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 LIB 59% CPQ 16% CAQ 10% QS 5% PQ 3% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 LIB 59% CPQ 16% CAQ 10% QS 5% PQ 3% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 LIB 59% CPQ 16% CAQ 10% QS 5% PQ 3% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB 60% CPQ 15% CAQ 10% QS 5% PQ 3% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 LIB 61% CPQ 15% CAQ 9% PQ 6% QS 6% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 LIB 56% CPQ 17% CAQ 8% QS 7% PQ 7% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 LIB 57% CPQ 16% CAQ 8% PQ 7% QS 7% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 56% CPQ 16% CAQ 9% PQ 7% QS 7% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 57% CPQ 15% CAQ 9% PQ 7% QS 7% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 62% CPQ 15% CAQ 8% PQ 7% QS 6% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 62% CPQ 14% CAQ 7% PQ 7% QS 6% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 62% CPQ 14% CAQ 8% PQ 8% QS 6% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 62% CPQ 14% PQ 8% CAQ 8% QS 6% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB 59% CPQ 17% PQ 7% CAQ 7% QS 6% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB 58% CPQ 19% PQ 7% CAQ 7% QS 6% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 59% CPQ 17% PQ 9% CAQ 6% QS 6% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB 59% CPQ 18% PQ 9% CAQ 6% QS 6% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB 59% CPQ 18% PQ 8% CAQ 6% QS 6% 2024-12-08

Odds of winning | Robert-Baldwin

LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-12-08

Recent electoral history | Robert-Baldwin



2014 2018 2022 Proj. LIB 87.3% 73.9% 57.8% 59% ± 8% CPQ 0.3% 3.0% 16.0% 18% ± 6% CAQ 5.1% 11.3% 9.8% 6% ± 3% QS 1.9% 4.3% 5.0% 6% ± 3% PQ 3.7% 3.3% 2.6% 8% ± 4% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.