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Quebec


Robert-Baldwin


MNA: Brigitte Garceau (LIB)


Latest projection: December 7 2023

Safe LIB hold
Robert-Baldwin 61% ± 8%▲ 15% ± 6% 9% ± 4%▼ 6% ± 3%▲ 6% ± 3%▲ 4% ± 3%▼ OTH LIB 2022 57.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 7 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Robert-Baldwin >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | December 7 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Robert-Baldwin

LIB 61% ± 8% PQ 6% ± 3% CAQ 9% ± 4% QS 6% ± 3% QCP 15% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Robert-Baldwin 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP

Odds of winning | Robert-Baldwin

LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS

Recent electoral history | Robert-Baldwin



2014 2018 2022 Proj. LIB 87.3% 73.9% 57.8% 61% ± 8% QCP 0.3% 3.0% 16.0% 15% ± 6% CAQ 5.1% 11.3% 9.8% 9% ± 4% QS 1.9% 4.3% 5.0% 6% ± 3% PQ 3.7% 3.3% 2.6% 6% ± 3% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4% ± 3% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0% ± 1%