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Quebec

Bourassa-Sauvé


MNA: Madwa-Nika Cadet (LIB)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
Safe LIB hold
Bourassa-Sauvé 47% ± 9%▲ LIB 19% ± 6%▼ PQ 12% ± 5%▼ QS 11% ± 5%▲ CPQ 9% ± 4% CAQ 2% ± 2% IND LIB 2022 40.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Bourassa-Sauvé >99% LIB <1% PQ <1% QS Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Bourassa-Sauvé

LIB 47% ± 9% PQ 19% ± 6% CAQ 9% ± 4% QS 12% ± 5% CPQ 11% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Bourassa-Sauvé 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 LIB 40% CAQ 25% QS 15% CPQ 9% PQ 9% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 LIB 40% CAQ 25% QS 15% PQ 9% CPQ 9% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 LIB 40% CAQ 25% QS 15% PQ 9% CPQ 9% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 LIB 40% CAQ 25% QS 17% PQ 10% CPQ 7% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 LIB 39% CAQ 25% QS 17% PQ 10% CPQ 7% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 LIB 40% CAQ 26% QS 17% PQ 10% CPQ 6% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 LIB 38% CAQ 26% QS 17% PQ 11% CPQ 6% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 LIB 38% CAQ 26% QS 17% PQ 11% CPQ 6% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 LIB 35% CAQ 27% QS 16% PQ 11% CPQ 8% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 LIB 39% CAQ 24% QS 15% PQ 10% CPQ 9% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 LIB 39% CAQ 24% QS 15% PQ 10% CPQ 9% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 LIB 39% CAQ 24% QS 14% PQ 11% CPQ 9% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB 40% CAQ 23% QS 14% PQ 12% CPQ 8% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 LIB 38% PQ 20% CAQ 16% QS 16% CPQ 8% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 LIB 34% PQ 22% QS 20% CAQ 13% CPQ 9% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 LIB 34% PQ 22% QS 19% CAQ 14% CPQ 9% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 34% PQ 22% QS 19% CAQ 15% CPQ 9% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 34% PQ 23% QS 20% CAQ 14% CPQ 8% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 40% PQ 23% QS 17% CAQ 11% CPQ 8% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 41% PQ 22% QS 15% CAQ 10% CPQ 8% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 41% PQ 23% QS 16% CAQ 11% CPQ 7% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 40% PQ 24% QS 16% CAQ 10% CPQ 8% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB 38% PQ 22% QS 17% CAQ 10% CPQ 10% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB 39% PQ 23% QS 15% CPQ 11% CAQ 10% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 41% PQ 22% QS 15% CPQ 10% CAQ 9% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB 42% PQ 22% QS 15% CPQ 10% CAQ 9% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB 42% PQ 21% QS 15% CPQ 10% CAQ 9% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 LIB 47% PQ 19% QS 12% CPQ 11% CAQ 9% 2025-02-06 Anglade resigns Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Bourassa-Sauvé

LIB >99% CAQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB CAQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 LIB 99% CAQ 1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 LIB 99% CAQ 1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 LIB 99% CAQ 1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 LIB 99% CAQ 1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 LIB 99% CAQ 1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 LIB 98% CAQ 2% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 LIB 98% CAQ 2% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 LIB 94% CAQ 6% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 LIB 99% CAQ <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 LIB 99% CAQ <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 98% CAQ <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 97% CAQ <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-02-06 Anglade resigns Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Bourassa-Sauvé



2014 2018 2022 Proj. LIB 60.5% 46.2% 40.1% 47% ± 9% CAQ 12.2% 23.5% 25.0% 9% ± 4% QS 5.9% 13.9% 15.5% 12% ± 5% CPQ 0.0% 1.5% 8.9% 11% ± 5% PQ 19.1% 10.6% 8.7% 19% ± 6% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%