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Quebec

Bourassa-Sauvé


MNA: Madwa-Nika Cadet

Latest projection: November 15, 2024
Safe LIB hold
Bourassa-Sauvé 41% ± 9%▲ LIB 22% ± 6%▼ PQ 15% ± 6% QS 10% ± 5%▼ CPQ 9% ± 4%▼ CAQ 2% ± 2% IND LIB 2022 40.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Bourassa-Sauvé >99% LIB <1% PQ <1% QS Odds of winning | November 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Bourassa-Sauvé

LIB 41% ± 9% PQ 22% ± 6% CAQ 9% ± 4% QS 15% ± 6% CPQ 10% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Bourassa-Sauvé 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 LIB 38% CAQ 32% QS 12% CPQ 9% PQ 6% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 LIB 37% CAQ 33% QS 12% CPQ 10% PQ 5% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 LIB 36% CAQ 32% QS 12% CPQ 12% PQ 5% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 LIB 36% CAQ 32% QS 12% CPQ 12% PQ 5% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 LIB 36% CAQ 32% QS 12% CPQ 12% PQ 5% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 LIB 38% CAQ 31% QS 12% CPQ 12% PQ 5% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 LIB 38% CAQ 31% QS 12% CPQ 12% PQ 5% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 LIB 38% CAQ 31% CPQ 12% QS 12% PQ 5% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 LIB 38% CAQ 31% CPQ 12% QS 12% PQ 5% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 LIB 38% CAQ 31% CPQ 12% QS 12% PQ 6% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 LIB 37% CAQ 30% QS 14% CPQ 12% PQ 6% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 LIB 37% CAQ 31% QS 14% CPQ 10% PQ 6% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 LIB 37% CAQ 31% QS 14% CPQ 10% PQ 6% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 LIB 37% CAQ 31% QS 13% CPQ 12% PQ 6% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 LIB 37% CAQ 31% QS 13% CPQ 12% PQ 6% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 LIB 37% CAQ 31% QS 13% CPQ 12% PQ 6% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 LIB 37% CAQ 31% QS 13% CPQ 12% PQ 6% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 LIB 37% CAQ 31% QS 12% CPQ 12% PQ 6% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 LIB 37% CAQ 31% QS 12% CPQ 12% PQ 6% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 LIB 37% CAQ 29% QS 14% CPQ 12% PQ 6% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 LIB 37% CAQ 30% QS 14% CPQ 12% PQ 6% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 LIB 37% CAQ 30% QS 14% CPQ 12% PQ 6% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 LIB 37% CAQ 30% QS 14% CPQ 12% PQ 6% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 LIB 37% CAQ 30% QS 14% CPQ 12% PQ 6% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 LIB 36% CAQ 29% QS 14% CPQ 12% PQ 8% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 LIB 36% CAQ 29% QS 14% CPQ 11% PQ 8% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 LIB 36% CAQ 29% QS 14% CPQ 11% PQ 8% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 LIB 36% CAQ 29% QS 14% CPQ 11% PQ 8% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 LIB 37% CAQ 29% QS 14% CPQ 11% PQ 8% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 LIB 37% CAQ 30% QS 13% CPQ 11% PQ 8% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 LIB 37% CAQ 29% QS 13% CPQ 11% PQ 8% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 LIB 37% CAQ 28% QS 13% CPQ 11% PQ 9% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 LIB 39% CAQ 26% QS 13% CPQ 11% PQ 9% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 LIB 39% CAQ 26% QS 13% CPQ 11% PQ 9% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 LIB 40% CAQ 26% QS 13% CPQ 11% PQ 9% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 LIB 40% CAQ 26% QS 13% CPQ 11% PQ 9% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 LIB 39% CAQ 26% QS 13% CPQ 11% PQ 10% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 LIB 40% CAQ 25% QS 15% CPQ 9% PQ 9% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 LIB 40% CAQ 25% QS 15% PQ 9% CPQ 9% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 LIB 40% CAQ 25% QS 15% PQ 9% CPQ 9% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 LIB 40% CAQ 25% QS 17% PQ 10% CPQ 7% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 LIB 39% CAQ 25% QS 17% PQ 10% CPQ 7% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 LIB 40% CAQ 26% QS 17% PQ 10% CPQ 6% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 LIB 38% CAQ 26% QS 17% PQ 11% CPQ 6% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 LIB 38% CAQ 26% QS 17% PQ 11% CPQ 6% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 LIB 35% CAQ 27% QS 16% PQ 11% CPQ 8% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 LIB 39% CAQ 24% QS 15% PQ 10% CPQ 9% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 LIB 39% CAQ 24% QS 15% PQ 10% CPQ 9% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 LIB 39% CAQ 24% QS 14% PQ 11% CPQ 9% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB 40% CAQ 23% QS 14% PQ 12% CPQ 8% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 LIB 38% PQ 20% CAQ 16% QS 16% CPQ 8% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 LIB 34% PQ 22% QS 20% CAQ 13% CPQ 9% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 LIB 34% PQ 22% QS 19% CAQ 14% CPQ 9% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 34% PQ 22% QS 19% CAQ 15% CPQ 9% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 34% PQ 23% QS 20% CAQ 14% CPQ 8% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 40% PQ 23% QS 17% CAQ 11% CPQ 8% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 41% PQ 22% QS 15% CAQ 10% CPQ 8% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 41% PQ 23% QS 16% CAQ 11% CPQ 7% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 40% PQ 24% QS 16% CAQ 10% CPQ 8% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB 38% PQ 22% QS 17% CAQ 10% CPQ 10% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB 39% PQ 23% QS 15% CPQ 11% CAQ 10% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 41% PQ 22% QS 15% CPQ 10% CAQ 9% 2024-11-15

Odds of winning | Bourassa-Sauvé

LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 LIB 80% CAQ 20% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 LIB 74% CAQ 26% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 LIB 77% CAQ 23% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 LIB 77% CAQ 23% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 LIB 77% CAQ 23% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 LIB 84% CAQ 16% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 LIB 87% CAQ 13% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 LIB 87% CAQ 13% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 LIB 88% CAQ 12% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 LIB 88% CAQ 12% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 LIB 84% CAQ 16% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 LIB 84% CAQ 16% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 LIB 84% CAQ 16% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 LIB 84% CAQ 16% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 LIB 84% CAQ 16% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 LIB 82% CAQ 18% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 LIB 82% CAQ 18% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 LIB 81% CAQ 19% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 LIB 80% CAQ 20% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 LIB 89% CAQ 11% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 LIB 88% CAQ 12% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 LIB 86% CAQ 14% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 LIB 87% CAQ 13% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 LIB 87% CAQ 13% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 LIB 88% CAQ 12% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 LIB 86% CAQ 14% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 LIB 88% CAQ 12% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 LIB 88% CAQ 12% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 LIB 89% CAQ 11% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 LIB 87% CAQ 13% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 LIB 89% CAQ 11% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 LIB 94% CAQ 6% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 LIB 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 LIB 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 LIB 99% CAQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 LIB 99% CAQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 LIB 99% CAQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 LIB 99% CAQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 LIB 99% CAQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 LIB 99% CAQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 LIB 99% CAQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 LIB 99% CAQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 LIB 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 LIB 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 LIB 94% CAQ 6% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 LIB >99% PQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 LIB 99% PQ 1% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 LIB 99% PQ 1% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 98% PQ 2% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 97% PQ 3% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB >99% PQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB >99% PQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB >99% PQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB >99% PQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB >99% PQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB >99% PQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB >99% PQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-11-15

Recent electoral history | Bourassa-Sauvé



2014 2018 2022 Proj. LIB 60.5% 46.2% 40.1% 41% ± 9% CAQ 12.2% 23.5% 25.0% 9% ± 4% QS 5.9% 13.9% 15.5% 15% ± 6% CPQ 0.0% 1.5% 8.9% 10% ± 5% PQ 19.1% 10.6% 8.7% 22% ± 6% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.