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Quebec


Bourassa-Sauvé


MNA: Madwa-Nika Cadet (LIB)


Latest projection: November 24, 2023

Safe LIB hold
Bourassa-Sauvé 40% ± 8%▲ 23% ± 7%▼ 14% ± 5% 12% ± 5%▲ 8% ± 4%▼ LIB 2022 40.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 24, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Bourassa-Sauvé >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | November 24, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Bourassa-Sauvé

LIB 40% ± 8% PQ 12% ± 5% CAQ 23% ± 7% QS 14% ± 5% QCP 8% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Bourassa-Sauvé 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP

Odds of winning | Bourassa-Sauvé

LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS

Recent electoral history | Bourassa-Sauvé



2014 2018 2022 Proj. LIB 60.5% 46.2% 40.1% 40% ± 8% CAQ 12.2% 23.5% 25.0% 23% ± 7% QS 5.9% 13.9% 15.5% 14% ± 5% QCP 0.0% 1.5% 8.9% 8% ± 4% PQ 19.1% 10.6% 8.7% 12% ± 5% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%