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Quebec

Notre-Dame-de-Grâce


MNA: Désirée McGraw (LIB)

Latest projection: June 17, 2024
Safe LIB hold
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce 54% ± 9%▼ LIB 18% ± 6%▲ QS 12% ± 5% PQ 7% ± 4% CPQ 5% ± 3% CAQ 3% ± 3% OTH LIB 2022 50.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Notre-Dame-de-Grâce >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ Odds of winning | June 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce

LIB 54% ± 9% PQ 12% ± 5% CAQ 5% ± 3% QS 18% ± 6% CPQ 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ June 17, 2024 2022-08-25 LIB 56% CAQ 13% QS 11% CPQ 6% PQ 3% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 LIB 55% CAQ 13% QS 11% CPQ 7% PQ 3% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 LIB 54% CAQ 13% QS 11% CPQ 8% PQ 2% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 LIB 54% CAQ 13% QS 11% CPQ 8% PQ 2% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 LIB 54% CAQ 13% QS 11% CPQ 8% PQ 2% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 LIB 56% CAQ 13% QS 10% CPQ 8% PQ 2% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 LIB 56% CAQ 13% QS 10% CPQ 8% PQ 2% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 LIB 56% CAQ 12% QS 10% CPQ 8% PQ 2% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 LIB 56% CAQ 12% QS 10% CPQ 8% PQ 2% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 LIB 56% CAQ 12% QS 10% CPQ 8% PQ 3% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 LIB 56% CAQ 12% QS 10% CPQ 8% PQ 3% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 LIB 56% CAQ 12% QS 10% CPQ 8% PQ 3% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 LIB 56% CAQ 12% QS 10% CPQ 8% PQ 3% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 LIB 56% CAQ 12% CPQ 9% QS 9% PQ 3% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 LIB 56% CAQ 12% CPQ 9% QS 9% PQ 3% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 LIB 55% CAQ 12% CPQ 10% QS 9% PQ 3% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 LIB 55% CAQ 12% CPQ 10% QS 9% PQ 3% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 LIB 55% CAQ 12% CPQ 10% QS 9% PQ 3% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 LIB 46% CAQ 16% QS 10% CPQ 10% PQ 3% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 LIB 46% CAQ 15% QS 12% CPQ 9% PQ 3% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 LIB 46% CAQ 15% QS 12% CPQ 9% PQ 3% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 LIB 45% CAQ 16% QS 12% CPQ 9% PQ 3% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 LIB 46% CAQ 16% QS 11% CPQ 9% PQ 3% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 LIB 46% CAQ 16% QS 11% CPQ 9% PQ 3% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 LIB 45% CAQ 15% QS 11% CPQ 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 LIB 44% CAQ 15% QS 11% CPQ 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 LIB 45% CAQ 15% QS 11% CPQ 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 LIB 45% CAQ 15% QS 11% CPQ 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 LIB 46% CAQ 15% QS 11% CPQ 9% PQ 5% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 LIB 48% CAQ 18% QS 11% CPQ 9% PQ 5% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 LIB 48% CAQ 18% QS 10% CPQ 9% PQ 5% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 LIB 48% CAQ 16% QS 11% CPQ 9% PQ 7% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 LIB 48% CAQ 16% QS 11% CPQ 9% PQ 7% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 LIB 48% CAQ 16% QS 11% CPQ 9% PQ 7% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 LIB 49% CAQ 16% QS 11% CPQ 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 LIB 49% CAQ 16% QS 10% CPQ 8% PQ 7% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 LIB 49% CAQ 15% QS 10% CPQ 8% PQ 7% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 LIB 50% QS 15% CPQ 8% CAQ 7% PQ 5% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 LIB 50% QS 15% CPQ 8% CAQ 7% PQ 5% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 LIB 50% QS 15% CPQ 8% CAQ 7% PQ 5% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 LIB 53% QS 18% CAQ 8% CPQ 7% PQ 6% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 LIB 52% QS 18% CAQ 8% CPQ 7% PQ 6% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 LIB 53% QS 18% CAQ 8% CPQ 6% PQ 6% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 LIB 52% QS 18% CAQ 8% PQ 7% CPQ 6% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 LIB 52% QS 18% CAQ 8% PQ 7% CPQ 6% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 LIB 48% QS 18% CAQ 8% CPQ 8% PQ 7% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 LIB 52% QS 16% CPQ 9% CAQ 8% PQ 6% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 LIB 52% QS 16% CPQ 9% CAQ 8% PQ 6% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 LIB 53% QS 15% CPQ 8% CAQ 8% PQ 6% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB 54% QS 15% CPQ 8% CAQ 7% PQ 7% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 LIB 53% QS 17% PQ 10% CPQ 8% CAQ 6% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 LIB 48% QS 21% PQ 10% CPQ 8% CAQ 5% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 LIB 48% QS 20% PQ 11% CPQ 8% CAQ 6% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 47% QS 21% PQ 11% CPQ 8% CAQ 6% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 47% QS 21% PQ 12% CPQ 7% CAQ 6% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 54% QS 18% PQ 12% CPQ 7% CAQ 6% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 55% QS 17% PQ 12% CPQ 7% CAQ 5% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 55% QS 17% PQ 12% CPQ 7% CAQ 5% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 54% QS 18% PQ 12% CPQ 7% CAQ 5% 2024-06-17

Odds of winning | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce

LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS June 17, 2024 2022-08-25 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-06-17

Recent electoral history | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce



2014 2018 2022 Proj. LIB 78.4% 63.0% 50.5% 54% ± 9% QS 6.7% 11.8% 15.5% 18% ± 6% CPQ 0.0% 1.5% 8.2% 7% ± 4% CAQ 5.3% 8.0% 7.3% 5% ± 3% PQ 5.1% 5.5% 5.1% 12% ± 5% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3% ± 3% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.