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Quebec

Notre-Dame-de-Grâce


MNA: Désirée McGraw (LIB)

Latest projection: June 27, 2025
Safe LIB

Recent electoral history | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce


2014 2018 2022 Proj. LIB 69% ± 7% 78.4% 63.0% 50.5% QS 9% ± 4% 6.7% 11.8% 15.5% CPQ 8% ± 4% 0.0% 1.5% 8.2% PQ 8% ± 4% 5.1% 5.5% 5.1% CAQ 3% ± 2% 5.3% 8.0% 7.3%




338Canada projection for Notre-Dame-de-Grâce


Notre-Dame-de-Grâce 69% ± 7%▲ LIB 9% ± 4%▼ QS 8% ± 4%▼ CPQ 8% ± 4%▼ PQ 3% ± 2% CAQ 2% ± 2% IND LIB 2022 50.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Notre-Dame-de-Grâce >99% LIB <1% QS <1% CPQ Odds of winning | June 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce

LIB 69% ± 7% PQ 8% ± 4% QS 9% ± 4% CPQ 8% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ QS CPQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 LIB 48% QS 20% PQ 11% CPQ 8% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 47% QS 21% PQ 11% CPQ 8% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 47% QS 21% PQ 12% CPQ 7% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 54% QS 18% PQ 12% CPQ 7% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 55% QS 17% PQ 12% CPQ 7% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 55% QS 17% PQ 12% CPQ 7% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 54% QS 18% PQ 12% CPQ 7% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB 52% QS 18% PQ 12% CPQ 10% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB 51% QS 17% CPQ 12% PQ 12% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 52% QS 16% PQ 13% CPQ 11% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB 52% QS 16% PQ 13% CPQ 11% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB 52% QS 16% PQ 13% CPQ 11% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 LIB 58% QS 13% PQ 11% CPQ 11% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 LIB 60% CPQ 11% PQ 11% QS 11% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 LIB 59% QS 12% PQ 11% CPQ 11% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 LIB 59% QS 12% PQ 11% CPQ 11% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 LIB 62% QS 11% PQ 11% CPQ 9% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 LIB 65% QS 11% PQ 9% CPQ 9% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 LIB 69% QS 9% CPQ 8% PQ 8% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader

Odds of winning | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce

LIB >99% CAQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB CAQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader