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Quebec

Laurier-Dorion


MNA: Andrès Fontecilla (QS)

Latest projection: February 6, 2025
QS likely hold
Laurier-Dorion 38% ± 8%▼ QS 24% ± 7%▲ LIB 23% ± 6%▼ PQ 9% ± 4%▲ CPQ 4% ± 2% CAQ QS 2022 48.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Laurier-Dorion 99%▼ QS 1%▲ LIB <1% PQ Odds of winning | February 6, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Laurier-Dorion

LIB 24% ± 7% PQ 23% ± 6% CAQ 4% ± 2% QS 38% ± 8% CPQ 9% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Laurier-Dorion 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 QS 49% LIB 20% CAQ 12% PQ 10% CPQ 6% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 QS 48% LIB 20% CAQ 12% PQ 11% CPQ 5% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 QS 48% LIB 20% CAQ 12% PQ 11% CPQ 5% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 QS 51% LIB 19% PQ 12% CAQ 11% CPQ 4% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 QS 52% LIB 18% PQ 11% CAQ 11% CPQ 4% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 QS 52% LIB 19% PQ 12% CAQ 12% CPQ 3% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 QS 52% LIB 18% PQ 13% CAQ 12% CPQ 3% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 QS 52% LIB 18% PQ 13% CAQ 12% CPQ 3% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 QS 50% LIB 16% PQ 13% CAQ 12% CPQ 5% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 QS 48% LIB 19% PQ 12% CAQ 11% CPQ 6% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 QS 48% LIB 19% PQ 12% CAQ 11% CPQ 6% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 QS 44% LIB 19% PQ 15% CAQ 12% CPQ 6% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 QS 43% LIB 20% PQ 16% CAQ 11% CPQ 5% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 QS 45% PQ 23% LIB 17% CAQ 7% CPQ 5% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 QS 50% PQ 23% LIB 14% CAQ 5% CPQ 5% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 QS 48% PQ 25% LIB 14% CAQ 6% CPQ 5% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS 48% PQ 25% LIB 14% CAQ 7% CPQ 5% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS 49% PQ 25% LIB 13% CAQ 6% CPQ 4% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 QS 45% PQ 26% LIB 18% CAQ 6% CPQ 4% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 QS 42% PQ 25% LIB 20% CAQ 6% CPQ 5% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 QS 43% PQ 25% LIB 20% CAQ 6% CPQ 5% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 QS 44% PQ 25% LIB 19% CAQ 5% CPQ 5% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 QS 44% PQ 24% LIB 18% CPQ 6% CAQ 5% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 QS 41% PQ 25% LIB 19% CPQ 8% CAQ 5% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 QS 42% PQ 25% LIB 19% CPQ 8% CAQ 4% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 QS 42% PQ 25% LIB 19% CPQ 8% CAQ 4% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 QS 42% PQ 24% LIB 20% CPQ 8% CAQ 4% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 QS 38% LIB 24% PQ 23% CPQ 9% CAQ 4% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Laurier-Dorion

LIB 1% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS 99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS February 6, 2025 2022-10-05 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 QS >99% CAQ <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 QS >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% CAQ <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 QS >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% CAQ <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 QS >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 QS >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% CAQ <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 QS >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% CAQ <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 QS >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% CAQ <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 QS >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% CAQ <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 QS >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% CAQ <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 QS 99% LIB 1% PQ <1% CAQ <1% 2025-02-06 ▼ Anglade resigns ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Laurier-Dorion



2014 2018 2022 Proj. QS 27.7% 47.3% 48.8% 38% ± 8% LIB 46.2% 29.7% 19.6% 24% ± 7% CAQ 7.2% 8.8% 11.7% 4% ± 2% PQ 15.9% 7.8% 10.3% 23% ± 6% CPQ 0.0% 1.2% 5.5% 9% ± 4% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%