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Quebec

Laurier-Dorion


MNA: Andrès Fontecilla (QS)

Latest projection: December 3, 2025
Toss up LIB/QS

Recent electoral history | Laurier-Dorion


2014 2018 2022 Proj. QS 33% ± 8% 27.7% 47.3% 48.8% LIB 32% ± 7% 46.2% 29.7% 19.6% PQ 23% ± 6% 15.9% 7.8% 10.3% CPQ 7% ± 3% 0.0% 1.2% 5.5% CAQ 4% ± 2% 7.2% 8.8% 11.7%




338Canada projection for Laurier-Dorion


Laurier-Dorion 24% 41% 33% ± 8% QS 24% 39% 32% ± 7% LIB 16% 29% 23% ± 6% PQ 4% 11% 7% ± 3% CPQ 1% 6% 4% ± 2% CAQ QS 2022 48.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 3, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Laurier-Dorion 56%▲ QS 44%▼ LIB <1% PQ Odds of winning | December 3, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Laurier-Dorion

LIB 32% ± 7% PQ 23% ± 6% CAQ 4% ± 2% QS 33% ± 8% CPQ 7% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Laurier-Dorion 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ December 3, 2025 2025-03-05 QS 38% LIB 25% PQ 23% CPQ 8% CAQ 4% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 QS 39% LIB 24% PQ 22% CPQ 8% CAQ 4% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 QS 40% LIB 24% PQ 22% CPQ 8% CAQ 4% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 QS 40% LIB 25% PQ 21% CPQ 6% CAQ 4% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 QS 40% LIB 28% PQ 19% CPQ 6% CAQ 4% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 QS 38% LIB 32% PQ 18% CPQ 6% CAQ 4% 2025-06-27 2025-08-13 QS 38% LIB 32% PQ 18% CPQ 6% CAQ 4% 2025-08-13 2025-08-22 QS 35% LIB 34% PQ 19% CPQ 6% CAQ 4% 2025-08-22 2025-09-10 QS 33% LIB 33% PQ 22% CPQ 6% CAQ 3% 2025-09-10 2025-09-19 LIB 34% QS 32% PQ 23% CPQ 6% CAQ 3% 2025-09-19 2025-10-05 LIB 34% QS 31% PQ 22% CPQ 7% CAQ 4% 2025-10-05 2025-11-13 LIB 36% QS 32% PQ 19% CPQ 7% CAQ 4% 2025-11-13 2025-12-03 QS 33% LIB 32% PQ 23% CPQ 7% CAQ 4% 2025-12-03 Rodriguez PLQ leader Zanetti QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Laurier-Dorion

LIB 44% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS 56% CPQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ December 3, 2025 2025-03-05 QS 98% LIB 1% PQ <1% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 QS >99% LIB <1% PQ <1% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 QS >99% LIB <1% PQ <1% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 QS 99% LIB 1% PQ <1% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 QS 98% LIB 2% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 QS 81% LIB 19% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2025-06-27 2025-08-13 QS 83% LIB 17% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2025-08-13 2025-08-22 QS 59% LIB 41% PQ <1% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% 2025-08-22 2025-09-10 QS 51% LIB 49% PQ <1% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% 2025-09-10 2025-09-19 LIB 65% QS 35% PQ <1% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% 2025-09-19 2025-10-05 LIB 73% QS 26% PQ <1% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% 2025-10-05 2025-11-13 LIB 77% QS 23% PQ <1% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% 2025-11-13 2025-12-03 QS 56% LIB 44% PQ <1% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% 2025-12-03 Rodriguez PLQ leader Zanetti QS co-leader
>99% <1% 38% ± 7% 62% ± 7% Projection of support for souvereignty | Laurier-Dorion YES NO 338Canada December 3, 2025