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Quebec

Anjou–Louis-Riel


MNA: Karine Boivin Roy

Latest projection: December 8, 2024
Toss up LIB/PQ
Anjou–Louis-Riel 30% ± 8% LIB 29% ± 7%▼ PQ 15% ± 5% CAQ 15% ± 5% QS 8% ± 4% CPQ 2% ± 2% IND CAQ 2022 35.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 8, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Anjou–Louis-Riel 54%▲ LIB 46%▼ PQ <1% CAQ Odds of winning | December 8, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Anjou–Louis-Riel

LIB 30% ± 8% PQ 29% ± 7% CAQ 15% ± 5% QS 15% ± 5% CPQ 8% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Anjou–Louis-Riel 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 37% LIB 33% QS 12% CPQ 8% PQ 8% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 38% LIB 31% QS 13% CPQ 9% PQ 7% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 36% LIB 31% QS 13% CPQ 10% PQ 7% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 36% LIB 31% QS 13% CPQ 11% PQ 7% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 36% LIB 31% QS 13% CPQ 11% PQ 7% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 36% LIB 31% QS 12% CPQ 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 36% LIB 32% QS 12% CPQ 11% PQ 7% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 36% LIB 32% QS 12% CPQ 11% PQ 7% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 36% LIB 32% QS 12% CPQ 11% PQ 7% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 35% LIB 32% QS 12% CPQ 11% PQ 8% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 36% LIB 32% QS 12% CPQ 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 36% LIB 32% QS 12% CPQ 9% PQ 8% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 36% LIB 32% QS 12% CPQ 9% PQ 8% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 36% LIB 32% QS 11% CPQ 11% PQ 8% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 36% LIB 32% QS 11% CPQ 11% PQ 8% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 36% LIB 32% CPQ 11% QS 11% PQ 8% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 36% LIB 32% CPQ 11% QS 11% PQ 8% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 39% LIB 29% QS 11% CPQ 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 39% LIB 29% QS 11% CPQ 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 37% LIB 29% QS 13% CPQ 10% PQ 9% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 38% LIB 29% QS 13% CPQ 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 38% LIB 29% QS 13% CPQ 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 38% LIB 29% QS 13% CPQ 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 38% LIB 29% QS 12% CPQ 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 36% LIB 28% QS 12% PQ 11% CPQ 10% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 36% LIB 28% QS 13% PQ 11% CPQ 10% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 36% LIB 28% QS 13% PQ 11% CPQ 9% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 36% LIB 28% QS 13% PQ 11% CPQ 9% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 36% LIB 28% QS 13% PQ 11% CPQ 9% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 38% LIB 29% QS 12% PQ 10% CPQ 10% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 37% LIB 30% QS 12% PQ 10% CPQ 9% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 35% LIB 30% QS 12% PQ 12% CPQ 9% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 34% LIB 31% QS 12% PQ 12% CPQ 9% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 34% LIB 31% QS 12% PQ 12% CPQ 9% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 34% LIB 32% QS 12% PQ 12% CPQ 9% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 34% LIB 32% QS 12% PQ 12% CPQ 9% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 33% LIB 31% PQ 13% QS 12% CPQ 9% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 36% LIB 31% QS 15% PQ 11% CPQ 7% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 36% LIB 30% QS 15% PQ 12% CPQ 7% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 36% LIB 30% QS 15% PQ 12% CPQ 7% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 35% LIB 30% QS 16% PQ 13% CPQ 6% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 35% LIB 30% QS 16% PQ 13% CPQ 6% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 35% LIB 30% QS 16% PQ 13% CPQ 5% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 36% LIB 29% QS 16% PQ 14% CPQ 5% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 36% LIB 29% QS 16% PQ 14% CPQ 5% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 36% LIB 27% QS 15% PQ 14% CPQ 6% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 33% LIB 30% QS 15% PQ 12% CPQ 8% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 33% LIB 30% QS 15% PQ 12% CPQ 8% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 31% LIB 31% PQ 15% QS 14% CPQ 7% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB 31% CAQ 30% PQ 16% QS 14% CPQ 7% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 LIB 29% PQ 24% CAQ 23% QS 16% CPQ 7% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 LIB 27% PQ 23% CAQ 22% QS 19% CPQ 7% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 LIB 26% PQ 24% CAQ 23% QS 18% CPQ 7% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 26% CAQ 24% PQ 24% QS 18% CPQ 7% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 27% LIB 27% CAQ 20% QS 19% CPQ 6% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 30% PQ 27% CAQ 19% QS 16% CPQ 6% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 31% PQ 26% CAQ 18% QS 15% CPQ 6% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 31% PQ 27% CAQ 19% QS 15% CPQ 6% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 30% PQ 27% CAQ 18% QS 16% CPQ 6% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB 29% PQ 26% CAQ 18% QS 16% CPQ 8% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB 29% PQ 27% CAQ 17% QS 15% CPQ 9% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 30% PQ 29% CAQ 16% QS 15% CPQ 8% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB 30% PQ 30% CAQ 15% QS 15% CPQ 8% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB 30% PQ 29% CAQ 15% QS 15% CPQ 8% 2024-12-08

Odds of winning | Anjou–Louis-Riel

LIB 54% PQ 46% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 74% LIB 26% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 82% LIB 18% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 79% LIB 21% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 80% LIB 20% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 79% LIB 21% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 77% LIB 23% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 73% LIB 27% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 72% LIB 28% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 73% LIB 27% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 72% LIB 28% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 73% LIB 27% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 73% LIB 27% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 72% LIB 28% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 72% LIB 28% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 72% LIB 28% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 74% LIB 26% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 74% LIB 26% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 95% LIB 5% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 95% LIB 5% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 89% LIB 11% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 91% LIB 9% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 92% LIB 8% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 91% LIB 9% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 91% LIB 9% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 91% LIB 9% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 92% LIB 8% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 90% LIB 10% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 90% LIB 10% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 89% LIB 11% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 92% LIB 8% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 86% LIB 14% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 79% LIB 21% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 64% LIB 36% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 65% LIB 35% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 63% LIB 37% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 63% LIB 37% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 62% LIB 38% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 89% LIB 11% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 77% LIB 23% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 77% LIB 23% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 80% LIB 20% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 83% LIB 17% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 79% LIB 21% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 88% LIB 12% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 87% LIB 13% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 94% LIB 6% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 68% LIB 32% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 68% LIB 32% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 53% LIB 47% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB 59% CAQ 41% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 LIB 80% PQ 12% CAQ 8% QS <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 LIB 68% PQ 18% CAQ 12% QS 2% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 LIB 57% PQ 23% CAQ 19% QS 1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 48% CAQ 26% PQ 25% QS 1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 49% PQ 49% CAQ 1% QS 1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 70% PQ 30% CAQ <1% QS <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 79% PQ 21% CAQ <1% QS <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 77% PQ 23% CAQ <1% QS <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 69% PQ 31% CAQ <1% QS <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB 70% PQ 30% CAQ <1% QS <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB 69% PQ 31% CAQ <1% QS <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 56% PQ 44% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB 50% PQ 50% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB 54% PQ 46% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-12-08

Recent electoral history | Anjou–Louis-Riel



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 16.8% 28.9% 35.6% 15% ± 5% LIB 50.8% 39.1% 30.5% 30% ± 8% QS 7.7% 14.5% 14.8% 15% ± 5% PQ 23.2% 14.7% 11.0% 29% ± 7% CPQ 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 8% ± 4% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.