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Quebec

Fabre


MNA: Alice Abou-Khalil

Latest projection: December 8, 2024
Likely LIB gain
Fabre 35% ± 8% LIB 23% ± 6%▼ PQ 16% ± 5% CAQ 15% ± 5% CPQ 8% ± 3% QS 2% ± 2% IND CAQ 2022 31.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 8, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Fabre 99%▲ LIB 1%▼ PQ <1% CAQ Odds of winning | December 8, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Fabre

LIB 35% ± 8% PQ 23% ± 6% CAQ 16% ± 5% QS 8% ± 3% CPQ 15% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Fabre 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 38% LIB 33% CPQ 10% QS 10% PQ 8% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 39% LIB 32% CPQ 11% QS 10% PQ 7% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 38% LIB 31% CPQ 13% QS 9% PQ 6% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 38% LIB 31% CPQ 13% QS 9% PQ 6% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 38% LIB 31% CPQ 13% QS 9% PQ 6% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 38% LIB 32% CPQ 13% QS 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 37% LIB 32% CPQ 13% QS 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 37% LIB 32% CPQ 13% QS 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 37% LIB 32% CPQ 13% QS 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 37% LIB 32% CPQ 13% QS 9% PQ 7% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 37% LIB 32% CPQ 12% QS 9% PQ 7% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 37% LIB 32% CPQ 12% QS 9% PQ 7% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 37% LIB 32% CPQ 12% QS 9% PQ 7% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 37% LIB 32% CPQ 14% QS 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 37% LIB 32% CPQ 14% QS 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 37% LIB 31% CPQ 15% QS 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 40% LIB 29% CPQ 15% PQ 7% QS 6% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 40% LIB 29% CPQ 15% PQ 7% QS 6% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 40% LIB 29% CPQ 15% PQ 7% QS 6% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 38% LIB 29% CPQ 14% QS 9% PQ 8% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 38% LIB 29% CPQ 14% QS 9% PQ 7% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 38% LIB 28% CPQ 14% QS 9% PQ 7% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 38% LIB 29% CPQ 14% QS 9% PQ 7% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 38% LIB 29% CPQ 14% QS 9% PQ 7% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 37% LIB 28% CPQ 14% PQ 10% QS 9% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 38% LIB 24% CPQ 14% PQ 10% QS 10% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 38% LIB 25% CPQ 14% PQ 10% QS 10% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 38% LIB 25% CPQ 14% PQ 10% QS 10% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 38% LIB 25% CPQ 15% QS 10% PQ 10% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 40% LIB 26% CPQ 15% QS 10% PQ 10% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 40% LIB 26% CPQ 15% QS 10% PQ 9% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 38% LIB 26% CPQ 15% PQ 11% QS 10% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 38% LIB 26% CPQ 14% PQ 11% QS 10% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 39% LIB 26% CPQ 14% PQ 11% QS 10% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 39% LIB 26% CPQ 14% PQ 11% QS 10% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 38% LIB 26% CPQ 14% PQ 11% QS 10% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 38% LIB 26% CPQ 14% PQ 12% QS 10% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 32% LIB 31% CPQ 15% QS 11% PQ 10% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 32% LIB 31% CPQ 14% PQ 11% QS 11% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 32% LIB 31% CPQ 14% PQ 11% QS 11% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 32% LIB 31% PQ 13% QS 12% CPQ 12% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 32% LIB 31% PQ 13% QS 12% CPQ 11% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 LIB 32% CAQ 32% QS 12% PQ 12% CPQ 11% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 33% LIB 31% PQ 13% CPQ 11% QS 11% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 33% LIB 31% PQ 13% CPQ 11% QS 11% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 30% LIB 29% PQ 14% CPQ 13% QS 11% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 LIB 31% CAQ 30% CPQ 15% PQ 12% QS 10% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 LIB 31% CAQ 30% CPQ 15% PQ 12% QS 10% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 LIB 31% CAQ 29% CPQ 15% PQ 13% QS 10% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB 33% CAQ 23% PQ 17% CPQ 14% QS 10% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 LIB 31% CAQ 23% PQ 20% CPQ 14% QS 11% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 LIB 33% PQ 22% CAQ 19% CPQ 14% QS 10% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 LIB 33% CAQ 22% PQ 21% CPQ 13% QS 9% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 33% PQ 23% CAQ 19% CPQ 14% QS 9% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 34% PQ 25% CAQ 18% CPQ 12% QS 10% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 37% PQ 25% CAQ 18% CPQ 12% QS 8% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 36% PQ 23% CAQ 17% CPQ 13% QS 7% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 36% PQ 23% CAQ 19% CPQ 12% QS 7% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 36% PQ 23% CAQ 18% CPQ 13% QS 8% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB 35% PQ 20% CAQ 19% CPQ 15% QS 8% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB 35% PQ 21% CAQ 18% CPQ 16% QS 8% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 35% PQ 23% CAQ 17% CPQ 15% QS 8% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB 35% PQ 24% CAQ 16% CPQ 15% QS 8% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB 35% PQ 23% CAQ 16% CPQ 15% QS 8% 2024-12-08

Odds of winning | Fabre

LIB 99% PQ 1% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 79% LIB 21% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 87% LIB 13% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 84% LIB 16% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 84% LIB 16% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 84% LIB 16% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 81% LIB 19% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 78% LIB 22% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 77% LIB 23% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 78% LIB 22% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 78% LIB 22% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 78% LIB 22% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 78% LIB 22% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 77% LIB 23% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 77% LIB 23% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 77% LIB 23% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 78% LIB 22% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 94% LIB 6% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 95% LIB 5% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 96% LIB 4% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 92% LIB 8% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 94% LIB 6% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 94% LIB 6% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 94% LIB 6% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 94% LIB 6% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 93% LIB 7% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 97% LIB 3% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 98% LIB 2% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 98% LIB 2% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 98% LIB 2% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 98% LIB 2% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 98% LIB 2% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 60% LIB 40% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 56% LIB 44% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 56% LIB 44% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 56% LIB 44% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 61% LIB 39% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 LIB 53% CAQ 47% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 61% LIB 39% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 60% LIB 40% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 60% LIB 40% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 LIB 58% CAQ 42% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 LIB 58% CAQ 42% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 LIB 67% CAQ 33% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB 97% CAQ 3% PQ <1% QS <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 LIB 94% CAQ 5% PQ <1% QS <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 LIB 99% PQ 1% CAQ <1% QS <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 LIB 99% CAQ 1% PQ 1% QS <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 98% PQ 2% CAQ <1% QS <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 95% PQ 5% CAQ <1% QS <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 99% PQ 1% CAQ <1% QS <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 99% PQ 1% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 99% PQ 1% CAQ <1% QS <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 99% PQ 1% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB 98% PQ 2% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB 99% PQ 1% CAQ <1% QS <1% 2024-12-08

Recent electoral history | Fabre



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 17.4% 32.3% 31.8% 16% ± 5% LIB 56.3% 37.7% 30.9% 35% ± 8% CPQ 0.0% 2.1% 15.2% 15% ± 5% QS 5.5% 10.8% 11.1% 8% ± 3% PQ 20.2% 13.5% 9.8% 23% ± 6% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.