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Quebec

Fabre


MNA: Alice Abou-Khalil (CAQ)

Latest projection: March 18, 2025
Safe LIB gain
Fabre 39% ± 8%▼ LIB 20% ± 5% PQ 17% ± 5% CAQ 15% ± 5% CPQ 6% ± 3% QS 2% ± 2% IND CAQ 2022 31.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 18, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Fabre >99% LIB <1% PQ <1% CAQ Odds of winning | March 18, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Fabre

LIB 39% ± 8% PQ 20% ± 5% CAQ 17% ± 5% QS 6% ± 3% CPQ 15% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Fabre 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ March 18, 2025 2024-02-18 LIB 33% CAQ 22% PQ 21% CPQ 13% QS 9% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 33% PQ 23% CAQ 19% CPQ 14% QS 9% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 34% PQ 25% CAQ 18% CPQ 12% QS 10% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 37% PQ 25% CAQ 18% CPQ 12% QS 8% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 36% PQ 23% CAQ 17% CPQ 13% QS 7% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 36% PQ 23% CAQ 19% CPQ 12% QS 7% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 36% PQ 23% CAQ 18% CPQ 13% QS 8% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB 35% PQ 20% CAQ 19% CPQ 15% QS 8% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB 35% PQ 21% CAQ 18% CPQ 16% QS 8% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 35% PQ 23% CAQ 17% CPQ 15% QS 8% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB 35% PQ 24% CAQ 16% CPQ 15% QS 8% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB 35% PQ 23% CAQ 16% CPQ 15% QS 8% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 LIB 39% PQ 21% CAQ 16% CPQ 16% QS 6% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 LIB 40% PQ 21% CPQ 16% CAQ 15% QS 5% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 LIB 40% PQ 20% CAQ 17% CPQ 15% QS 6% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 LIB 39% PQ 20% CAQ 17% CPQ 15% QS 6% 2025-03-18 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Fabre

LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ March 18, 2025 2024-02-18 LIB 99% CAQ 1% PQ 1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 98% PQ 2% CAQ <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 95% PQ 5% CAQ <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 99% PQ 1% CAQ <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 99% PQ 1% CAQ <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 99% PQ 1% CAQ <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 99% PQ 1% CAQ <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB 98% PQ 2% CAQ <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB 99% PQ 1% CAQ <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% 2025-03-18 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Fabre



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 17.4% 32.3% 31.8% 17% ± 5% LIB 56.3% 37.7% 30.9% 39% ± 8% CPQ 0.0% 2.1% 15.2% 15% ± 5% QS 5.5% 10.8% 11.1% 6% ± 3% PQ 20.2% 13.5% 9.8% 20% ± 5% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%