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Quebec


Fabre


MNA: Alice Abou-Khalil (CAQ)


Latest projection: November 24, 2023

Likely LIB gain
Fabre 33% ± 7%▲ 23% ± 6%▼ 17% ± 5%▲ 14% ± 5%▼ 10% ± 4% CAQ 2022 31.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 24, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Fabre 97%▲ 3%▼ <1% Odds of winning | November 24, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Fabre

LIB 33% ± 7% PQ 17% ± 5% CAQ 23% ± 6% QS 10% ± 4% QCP 14% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Fabre 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP

Odds of winning | Fabre

LIB 97% PQ <1% CAQ 3% QS <1% QCP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP

Recent electoral history | Fabre



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 17.4% 32.3% 31.8% 23% ± 6% LIB 56.3% 37.7% 30.9% 33% ± 7% QCP 0.0% 2.1% 15.2% 14% ± 5% QS 5.5% 10.8% 11.1% 10% ± 4% PQ 20.2% 13.5% 9.8% 17% ± 5% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%