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Quebec

Fabre


MNA: Alice Abou-Khalil (CAQ)

Latest projection: June 27, 2025
Safe LIB

Recent electoral history | Fabre


2014 2018 2022 Proj. LIB 51% ± 7% 56.3% 37.7% 30.9% PQ 17% ± 5% 20.2% 13.5% 9.8% CPQ 15% ± 5% 0.0% 2.1% 15.2% CAQ 11% ± 4% 17.4% 32.3% 31.8% QS 5% ± 3% 5.5% 10.8% 11.1%




338Canada projection for Fabre


Fabre 51% ± 7%▲ LIB 17% ± 5%▼ PQ 15% ± 5% CPQ 11% ± 4% CAQ 5% ± 3%▼ QS 2% ± 2% IND CAQ 2022 31.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Fabre >99% LIB <1% PQ <1% CPQ Odds of winning | June 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Fabre

LIB 51% ± 7% PQ 17% ± 5% CAQ 11% ± 4% QS 5% ± 3% CPQ 15% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Fabre 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 LIB 33% CAQ 22% PQ 21% CPQ 13% QS 9% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 33% PQ 23% CAQ 19% CPQ 14% QS 9% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 34% PQ 25% CAQ 18% CPQ 12% QS 10% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 37% PQ 25% CAQ 18% CPQ 12% QS 8% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 36% PQ 23% CAQ 17% CPQ 13% QS 7% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 36% PQ 23% CAQ 19% CPQ 12% QS 7% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 36% PQ 23% CAQ 18% CPQ 13% QS 8% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB 35% PQ 20% CAQ 19% CPQ 15% QS 8% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB 35% PQ 21% CAQ 18% CPQ 16% QS 8% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 35% PQ 23% CAQ 17% CPQ 15% QS 8% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB 35% PQ 24% CAQ 16% CPQ 15% QS 8% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB 35% PQ 23% CAQ 16% CPQ 15% QS 8% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 LIB 39% PQ 21% CAQ 16% CPQ 16% QS 6% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 LIB 40% PQ 21% CPQ 16% CAQ 15% QS 5% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 LIB 40% PQ 20% CAQ 17% CPQ 15% QS 6% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 LIB 39% PQ 20% CAQ 17% CPQ 15% QS 6% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 LIB 41% PQ 20% CAQ 16% CPQ 15% QS 6% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 LIB 47% PQ 18% CPQ 15% CAQ 11% QS 6% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 LIB 51% PQ 17% CPQ 15% CAQ 11% QS 5% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader

Odds of winning | Fabre

LIB >99% CAQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB CAQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 LIB 99% CAQ 1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 98% CAQ <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 95% CAQ <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 99% CAQ <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 99% CAQ <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 99% CAQ <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 99% CAQ <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB 98% CAQ <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB 99% CAQ <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader