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Quebec

Recent electoral history | Fabre


2014 2018 2022 Projection LIB 46% ± 8% 56.3% 37.7% 30.9% PQ 19% ± 5% 20.2% 13.5% 9.8% CPQ 18% ± 5% 0.0% 2.1% 15.2% CAQ 10% ± 4% 17.4% 32.3% 31.8% QS 4% ± 2% 5.5% 10.8% 11.1%

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338Canada Fabre projection

Latest update: March 5, 2026

Fabre 39% 54% 46% ± 8% LIB 14% 25% 19% ± 5% PQ 13% 24% 18% ± 5% CPQ 6% 14% 10% ± 4% CAQ 2% 6% 4% ± 2% QS CAQ 2022 31.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 5, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Fabre >99% LIB <1% PQ <1% CPQ Odds of winning | March 5, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

338Canada Quebec Projection | Fabre

Odds of winning | Fabre


>99% <1% 30% ± 6% 70% ± 6% Projection of support for sovereignty | Fabre YES NO 338Canada March 5, 2026


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Demographic data | Fabre

Canadian Census, 2021
Language 58.0% French 21.6% English 4.4% Arabic 2.6% Armenian 1.9% Romanian 1.7% Spanish 1.2% PunjabiFabreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 10.3% No diploma 17.4% High school 13.8% Trade 19.0% College / Cégep 5.2% Some university 22.4% Bachelor's 12.0% PostgraduateFabreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 69.2% Not visible minority 30.8% Visible minority 10.0% Arab 5.3% Black 5.2% South Asian 2.7% Latin American 2.3% Southeast Asian 2.2% West AsianFabreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 40.9% Catholic 17.5% No Religion 13.3% Orthodox 11.0% Muslim 8.0% Christian (n.o.s.) 1.7% Hindu 1.7% Buddhist 1.6% Other ChristianFabreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 78.9% Owner 21.1% RenterFabreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 64.2% Employed 29.9% Not in labour force 5.9% UnemployedFabreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 99.2% Non-Indigenous 0.8% Indigenous identity 0.5% First Nations 0.3% Metis 0.1% OthersFabreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 88.2% Car / truck / van 7.7% Public transit 2.0% Walking 1.9% Other 0.3% BicycleFabreSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.