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Quebec

Châteauguay


MNA: Marie-Belle Gendron

Latest projection: November 15, 2024
Leaning LIB gain
Châteauguay 29% ± 7% LIB 24% ± 6%▼ CAQ 23% ± 6%▲ PQ 10% ± 4% QS 10% ± 4%▼ CPQ 2% ± 2% IND CAQ 2022 39.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Châteauguay 79%▲ LIB 14%▼ CAQ 8%▲ PQ Odds of winning | November 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Châteauguay

LIB 29% ± 7% PQ 23% ± 6% CAQ 24% ± 6% QS 10% ± 4% CPQ 10% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Châteauguay 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 41% LIB 25% QS 14% CPQ 11% PQ 7% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 41% LIB 24% QS 14% CPQ 12% PQ 6% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 40% LIB 24% CPQ 14% QS 14% PQ 6% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 40% LIB 24% CPQ 14% QS 14% PQ 6% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 40% LIB 24% CPQ 14% QS 14% PQ 6% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 40% LIB 24% CPQ 14% QS 14% PQ 6% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 39% LIB 25% CPQ 14% QS 14% PQ 6% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 39% LIB 25% CPQ 14% QS 14% PQ 6% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 39% LIB 25% CPQ 14% QS 13% PQ 6% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 39% LIB 25% CPQ 14% QS 13% PQ 6% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 39% LIB 25% CPQ 14% QS 13% PQ 6% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 39% LIB 25% CPQ 14% QS 13% PQ 6% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 39% LIB 25% CPQ 14% QS 13% PQ 7% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 39% LIB 25% CPQ 16% QS 12% PQ 7% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 39% LIB 25% CPQ 16% QS 12% PQ 7% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 39% LIB 24% CPQ 16% QS 12% PQ 6% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 39% LIB 24% CPQ 16% QS 12% PQ 6% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 39% LIB 24% CPQ 16% QS 12% PQ 6% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 39% LIB 24% CPQ 16% QS 11% PQ 6% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 38% LIB 24% CPQ 16% QS 13% PQ 7% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 38% LIB 24% CPQ 15% QS 13% PQ 6% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 38% LIB 24% CPQ 15% QS 13% PQ 6% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 38% LIB 24% CPQ 15% QS 13% PQ 6% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 38% LIB 24% CPQ 16% QS 13% PQ 6% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 37% LIB 23% CPQ 15% QS 13% PQ 9% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 39% LIB 21% CPQ 16% QS 13% PQ 9% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 38% LIB 21% CPQ 16% QS 13% PQ 9% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 39% LIB 21% CPQ 16% QS 13% PQ 9% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 38% LIB 21% CPQ 16% QS 13% PQ 9% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 40% LIB 22% CPQ 16% QS 13% PQ 9% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 40% LIB 22% CPQ 16% QS 12% PQ 9% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 38% LIB 22% CPQ 16% QS 13% PQ 10% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 39% LIB 22% CPQ 16% QS 13% PQ 10% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 39% LIB 22% CPQ 16% QS 13% PQ 10% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 39% LIB 22% CPQ 15% QS 13% PQ 10% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 39% LIB 22% CPQ 15% QS 13% PQ 11% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 39% LIB 22% CPQ 15% QS 13% PQ 11% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 39% LIB 25% QS 13% PQ 12% CPQ 10% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 39% LIB 25% PQ 14% QS 12% CPQ 9% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 39% LIB 25% PQ 14% QS 12% CPQ 9% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 39% LIB 24% PQ 15% QS 14% CPQ 8% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 39% LIB 24% PQ 15% QS 14% CPQ 7% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 37% LIB 26% PQ 14% QS 14% CPQ 7% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 39% LIB 25% PQ 15% QS 13% CPQ 7% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 39% LIB 25% PQ 15% QS 13% CPQ 7% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 36% LIB 23% PQ 17% QS 13% CPQ 8% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 33% LIB 26% PQ 15% QS 12% CPQ 11% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 33% LIB 26% PQ 15% QS 12% CPQ 11% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 33% LIB 27% PQ 16% QS 12% CPQ 10% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB 28% CAQ 26% PQ 22% QS 12% CPQ 10% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 LIB 27% CAQ 27% PQ 23% QS 13% CPQ 9% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 LIB 28% CAQ 25% PQ 23% QS 13% CPQ 9% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 27% LIB 27% PQ 23% QS 12% CPQ 9% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 27% CAQ 25% PQ 24% QS 12% CPQ 9% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 28% PQ 26% CAQ 24% QS 13% CPQ 8% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 31% CAQ 25% PQ 24% QS 11% CPQ 8% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 31% CAQ 24% PQ 23% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 30% CAQ 27% PQ 22% QS 10% CPQ 8% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 29% CAQ 26% PQ 23% QS 10% CPQ 8% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB 29% CAQ 28% PQ 20% QS 11% CPQ 10% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB 29% CAQ 26% PQ 21% CPQ 11% QS 10% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 29% CAQ 24% PQ 23% QS 10% CPQ 10% 2024-11-15

Odds of winning | Châteauguay

LIB 79% PQ 8% CAQ 14% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 98% LIB 2% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 91% LIB 9% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 91% LIB 9% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 88% LIB 12% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB 61% CAQ 35% PQ 4% QS <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 LIB 48% CAQ 46% PQ 6% QS <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 LIB 65% CAQ 24% PQ 11% QS <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 51% LIB 43% PQ 6% QS <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 58% CAQ 26% PQ 16% QS <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 57% PQ 31% CAQ 11% QS <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 79% CAQ 13% PQ 8% QS <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 86% CAQ 8% PQ 5% QS <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 71% CAQ 27% PQ 2% QS <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 69% CAQ 26% PQ 4% QS <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB 59% CAQ 41% PQ <1% QS <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB 73% CAQ 25% PQ 2% QS <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 79% CAQ 14% PQ 8% QS <1% 2024-11-15

Recent electoral history | Châteauguay



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 20.2% 37.1% 39.1% 24% ± 6% LIB 49.6% 33.7% 24.8% 29% ± 7% QS 5.7% 12.8% 12.8% 10% ± 4% PQ 22.9% 12.3% 11.8% 23% ± 6% CPQ 0.5% 1.4% 10.1% 10% ± 4% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.