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Quebec

Châteauguay


MNA: Marie-Belle Gendron (CAQ)

Latest projection: June 27, 2025
Safe LIB

Recent electoral history | Châteauguay


2014 2018 2022 Proj. LIB 43% ± 7% 49.6% 33.7% 24.8% PQ 19% ± 5% 22.9% 12.3% 11.8% CAQ 17% ± 5% 20.2% 37.1% 39.1% CPQ 11% ± 4% 0.5% 1.4% 10.1% QS 7% ± 3% 5.7% 12.8% 12.8%




338Canada projection for Châteauguay


Châteauguay 43% ± 7%▲ LIB 19% ± 5% PQ 17% ± 5%▼ CAQ 11% ± 4% CPQ 7% ± 3%▼ QS 2% ± 2% IND CAQ 2022 39.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Châteauguay >99% LIB <1% PQ <1% CAQ Odds of winning | June 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Châteauguay

LIB 43% ± 7% PQ 19% ± 5% CAQ 17% ± 5% QS 7% ± 3% CPQ 11% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Châteauguay 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 CAQ 27% LIB 27% PQ 23% QS 12% CPQ 9% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 27% CAQ 25% PQ 24% QS 12% CPQ 9% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 28% PQ 26% CAQ 24% QS 13% CPQ 8% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 31% CAQ 25% PQ 24% QS 11% CPQ 8% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 31% CAQ 24% PQ 23% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 30% CAQ 27% PQ 22% QS 10% CPQ 8% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 29% CAQ 26% PQ 23% QS 10% CPQ 8% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB 29% CAQ 28% PQ 20% QS 11% CPQ 10% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB 29% CAQ 26% PQ 21% CPQ 11% QS 10% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 29% CAQ 24% PQ 23% QS 10% CPQ 10% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB 29% PQ 24% CAQ 23% CPQ 10% QS 10% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB 29% CAQ 24% PQ 23% CPQ 10% QS 10% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 LIB 32% CAQ 25% PQ 21% CPQ 11% QS 8% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 LIB 34% CAQ 24% PQ 21% CPQ 11% QS 7% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 LIB 33% CAQ 25% PQ 20% CPQ 10% QS 8% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 LIB 32% CAQ 26% PQ 21% CPQ 11% QS 8% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 LIB 34% CAQ 25% PQ 20% CPQ 10% QS 8% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 LIB 41% PQ 19% CAQ 18% CPQ 11% QS 8% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 LIB 43% PQ 19% CAQ 17% CPQ 11% QS 7% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader

Odds of winning | Châteauguay

LIB >99% CAQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB CAQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 CAQ 51% LIB 43% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 58% CAQ 26% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 57% CAQ 11% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 79% CAQ 13% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 86% CAQ 8% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 71% CAQ 27% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 69% CAQ 26% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB 59% CAQ 41% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB 73% CAQ 25% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 79% CAQ 14% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB 80% CAQ 7% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB 80% CAQ 13% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 LIB 93% CAQ 6% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 LIB 98% CAQ 2% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 LIB 94% CAQ 6% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 LIB 91% CAQ 9% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 LIB 97% CAQ 3% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader