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Quebec

Marquette


MNA: Enrico Ciccone

Latest projection: December 8, 2024
Safe LIB hold
Marquette 45% ± 9% LIB 19% ± 6%▼ PQ 12% ± 5% QS 11% ± 4% CAQ 11% ± 4% CPQ 2% ± 2% IND LIB 2022 46.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 8, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Marquette >99% LIB <1% PQ <1% QS Odds of winning | December 8, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Marquette

LIB 45% ± 9% PQ 19% ± 6% CAQ 11% ± 4% QS 12% ± 5% CPQ 11% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Marquette 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 LIB 36% CAQ 35% QS 11% CPQ 7% PQ 6% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 36% LIB 35% QS 11% CPQ 7% PQ 6% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 35% LIB 34% QS 11% CPQ 9% PQ 5% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 35% LIB 34% QS 11% CPQ 9% PQ 5% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 35% LIB 34% QS 11% CPQ 9% PQ 5% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 35% LIB 35% QS 11% CPQ 9% PQ 5% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 LIB 35% CAQ 34% QS 11% CPQ 9% PQ 5% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 LIB 35% CAQ 34% QS 11% CPQ 9% PQ 5% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 LIB 35% CAQ 34% QS 11% CPQ 9% PQ 5% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 LIB 35% CAQ 34% QS 11% CPQ 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 LIB 34% CAQ 34% QS 12% CPQ 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 34% LIB 34% QS 12% CPQ 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 34% LIB 34% QS 12% CPQ 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 34% LIB 34% QS 11% CPQ 10% PQ 6% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 34% LIB 34% QS 11% CPQ 10% PQ 6% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 34% LIB 33% QS 11% CPQ 11% PQ 6% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 34% LIB 33% QS 11% CPQ 11% PQ 6% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 34% LIB 33% CPQ 11% QS 11% PQ 6% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 34% LIB 33% CPQ 11% QS 10% PQ 6% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 LIB 34% CAQ 32% QS 12% CPQ 10% PQ 6% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 LIB 34% CAQ 33% QS 12% CPQ 10% PQ 6% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 LIB 33% CAQ 33% QS 12% CPQ 10% PQ 6% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 LIB 34% CAQ 33% QS 12% CPQ 10% PQ 6% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 LIB 34% CAQ 33% QS 12% CPQ 10% PQ 6% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 33% LIB 32% QS 11% CPQ 10% PQ 9% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 33% LIB 32% QS 12% CPQ 10% PQ 9% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 33% LIB 32% QS 12% CPQ 10% PQ 9% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 33% LIB 32% QS 12% CPQ 10% PQ 9% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 33% LIB 32% QS 12% CPQ 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 35% LIB 32% QS 11% CPQ 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 LIB 38% CAQ 32% CPQ 9% PQ 8% QS 8% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 LIB 38% CAQ 30% PQ 10% CPQ 9% QS 8% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 LIB 39% CAQ 30% PQ 10% CPQ 9% QS 8% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 LIB 39% CAQ 30% PQ 10% CPQ 9% QS 8% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 LIB 39% CAQ 30% PQ 10% CPQ 9% QS 8% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 LIB 39% CAQ 30% PQ 10% CPQ 9% QS 8% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 LIB 39% CAQ 30% PQ 10% CPQ 8% QS 8% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 LIB 47% CAQ 22% QS 11% CPQ 9% PQ 8% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 LIB 47% CAQ 22% QS 11% CPQ 9% PQ 9% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 LIB 47% CAQ 22% QS 11% CPQ 9% PQ 9% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 LIB 47% CAQ 22% QS 12% PQ 9% CPQ 7% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 LIB 46% CAQ 22% QS 13% PQ 9% CPQ 7% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 LIB 47% CAQ 23% QS 12% PQ 9% CPQ 7% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 LIB 46% CAQ 23% QS 12% PQ 10% CPQ 7% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 LIB 46% CAQ 23% QS 12% PQ 10% CPQ 7% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 LIB 43% CAQ 24% QS 12% PQ 10% CPQ 8% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 LIB 46% CAQ 21% QS 11% CPQ 10% PQ 9% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 LIB 46% CAQ 21% QS 11% CPQ 10% PQ 9% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 LIB 46% CAQ 21% QS 11% PQ 10% CPQ 9% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB 47% CAQ 20% QS 11% PQ 11% CPQ 8% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 LIB 47% CAQ 17% PQ 14% QS 12% CPQ 8% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 LIB 43% PQ 16% QS 15% CAQ 14% CPQ 9% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 LIB 43% PQ 16% CAQ 15% QS 14% CPQ 9% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 42% PQ 16% CAQ 16% QS 14% CPQ 9% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 42% PQ 17% CAQ 15% QS 15% CPQ 8% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 46% PQ 17% CAQ 15% QS 13% CPQ 8% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 46% PQ 17% CAQ 14% QS 12% CPQ 8% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 46% PQ 17% CAQ 14% QS 12% CPQ 8% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 46% PQ 17% CAQ 14% QS 12% CPQ 8% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB 44% PQ 17% CAQ 14% QS 13% CPQ 10% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB 44% PQ 17% CAQ 13% QS 12% CPQ 11% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 45% PQ 19% CAQ 12% QS 12% CPQ 10% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB 45% PQ 20% QS 12% CAQ 11% CPQ 11% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB 45% PQ 19% QS 12% CAQ 11% CPQ 11% 2024-12-08

Odds of winning | Marquette

LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 LIB 54% CAQ 46% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 57% LIB 43% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 53% LIB 47% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 53% LIB 47% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 53% LIB 47% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 50% LIB 50% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 LIB 55% CAQ 45% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 LIB 56% CAQ 44% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 LIB 56% CAQ 44% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 LIB 56% CAQ 44% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 LIB 51% CAQ 49% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 50% LIB 50% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 50% LIB 50% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 LIB 50% CAQ 50% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 50% LIB 50% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 52% LIB 48% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 53% LIB 47% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 54% LIB 46% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 56% LIB 44% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 LIB 60% CAQ 40% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 LIB 56% CAQ 44% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 LIB 54% CAQ 46% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 LIB 56% CAQ 44% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 LIB 56% CAQ 44% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 56% LIB 44% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 58% LIB 42% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 59% LIB 41% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 58% LIB 42% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 57% LIB 43% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 66% LIB 34% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 LIB 82% CAQ 18% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 LIB 89% CAQ 11% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 LIB 91% CAQ 9% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 LIB 91% CAQ 9% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 LIB 92% CAQ 8% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 LIB 91% CAQ 9% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 LIB 91% CAQ 9% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB >99% PQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-12-08

Recent electoral history | Marquette



2014 2018 2022 Proj. LIB 62.5% 43.0% 46.7% 45% ± 9% CAQ 13.4% 28.3% 21.8% 11% ± 4% QS 5.9% 11.5% 11.3% 12% ± 5% CPQ 0.6% 2.2% 9.1% 11% ± 4% PQ 14.5% 7.8% 8.1% 19% ± 6% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.