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Quebec

Chapleau


MNA: Mathieu Lévesque (CAQ)

Latest projection: June 27, 2025
Safe LIB

Recent electoral history | Chapleau


2014 2018 2022 Proj. LIB 38% ± 7% 57.8% 32.6% 13.6% CAQ 20% ± 6% 14.7% 40.4% 52.3% PQ 19% ± 5% 18.5% 9.0% 9.7% QS 10% ± 4% 5.9% 15.8% 13.2% CPQ 10% ± 4% 0.0% 1.5% 10.1%




338Canada projection for Chapleau


Chapleau 38% ± 7%▲ LIB 20% ± 6%▼ CAQ 19% ± 5%▼ PQ 10% ± 4%▼ QS 10% ± 4% CPQ 2% ± 2% IND CAQ 2022 52.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Chapleau >99% LIB <1% CAQ <1% PQ Odds of winning | June 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Chapleau

LIB 38% ± 7% PQ 19% ± 5% CAQ 20% ± 6% QS 10% ± 4% CPQ 10% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Chapleau 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 CAQ 30% PQ 26% LIB 18% QS 15% CPQ 9% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 31% PQ 24% LIB 18% QS 16% CPQ 9% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CAQ 29% PQ 26% LIB 18% QS 16% CPQ 8% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 29% LIB 24% PQ 24% QS 13% CPQ 8% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 28% LIB 24% PQ 23% QS 12% CPQ 9% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 30% LIB 24% PQ 22% QS 12% CPQ 9% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 30% LIB 24% PQ 21% QS 13% CPQ 9% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 30% LIB 24% PQ 21% QS 14% CPQ 9% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 29% LIB 24% PQ 21% QS 13% CPQ 10% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CAQ 27% LIB 25% PQ 23% QS 13% CPQ 9% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 CAQ 26% LIB 25% PQ 23% QS 13% CPQ 10% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CAQ 28% LIB 25% PQ 22% QS 13% CPQ 10% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CAQ 28% LIB 27% PQ 21% QS 11% CPQ 10% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 LIB 28% CAQ 27% PQ 21% QS 10% CPQ 10% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 CAQ 28% LIB 28% PQ 21% QS 11% CPQ 10% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 CAQ 29% LIB 26% PQ 21% QS 11% CPQ 10% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 LIB 28% CAQ 26% PQ 23% QS 11% CPQ 9% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 LIB 35% CAQ 22% PQ 21% QS 11% CPQ 10% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 LIB 38% CAQ 20% PQ 19% QS 10% CPQ 10% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader

Odds of winning | Chapleau

LIB >99% CAQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB CAQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 CAQ 80% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 92% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CAQ 75% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 78% LIB 13% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 75% LIB 17% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 86% LIB 12% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 86% LIB 12% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 89% LIB 10% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 83% LIB 15% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CAQ 61% LIB 30% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 CAQ 48% LIB 40% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CAQ 67% LIB 30% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CAQ 52% LIB 46% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 LIB 61% CAQ 37% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 CAQ 56% LIB 43% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 CAQ 69% LIB 29% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 LIB 62% CAQ 29% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader