logo
logo
Quebec

Chapleau


MNA: Mathieu Lévesque

Latest projection: November 15, 2024
Toss up LIB/CAQ
Chapleau 27% ± 6%▼ CAQ 25% ± 7%▲ LIB 23% ± 6%▲ PQ 13% ± 4% QS 9% ± 4%▼ CPQ 2% ± 2% IND CAQ 2022 52.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Chapleau 61%▼ CAQ 30%▲ LIB 8%▲ PQ Odds of winning | November 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Chapleau

LIB 25% ± 7% PQ 23% ± 6% CAQ 27% ± 6% QS 13% ± 4% CPQ 9% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Chapleau 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 41% LIB 26% QS 14% CPQ 13% PQ 5% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 41% LIB 25% QS 14% CPQ 13% PQ 4% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 40% LIB 25% CPQ 16% QS 14% PQ 4% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 40% LIB 24% CPQ 16% QS 14% PQ 4% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 40% LIB 24% CPQ 16% QS 13% PQ 4% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 40% LIB 25% CPQ 16% QS 13% PQ 4% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 39% LIB 25% CPQ 16% QS 13% PQ 4% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 39% LIB 25% CPQ 16% QS 13% PQ 4% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 39% LIB 25% CPQ 16% QS 13% PQ 4% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 39% LIB 25% CPQ 16% QS 13% PQ 5% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 39% LIB 25% CPQ 16% QS 13% PQ 5% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 39% LIB 25% CPQ 16% QS 13% PQ 5% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 39% LIB 25% CPQ 16% QS 13% PQ 5% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 38% LIB 25% CPQ 18% QS 12% PQ 5% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 38% LIB 25% CPQ 18% QS 12% PQ 5% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 38% LIB 24% CPQ 19% QS 11% PQ 5% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 38% LIB 24% CPQ 19% QS 11% PQ 5% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 38% LIB 24% CPQ 19% QS 11% PQ 5% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 39% LIB 24% CPQ 19% QS 11% PQ 5% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 37% LIB 24% CPQ 18% QS 13% PQ 5% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 38% LIB 24% CPQ 18% QS 13% PQ 5% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 38% LIB 24% CPQ 18% QS 13% PQ 5% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 38% LIB 24% CPQ 18% QS 13% PQ 5% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 38% LIB 24% CPQ 18% QS 13% PQ 5% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 36% LIB 23% CPQ 18% QS 13% PQ 7% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 37% LIB 21% CPQ 18% QS 14% PQ 7% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 37% LIB 21% CPQ 18% QS 14% PQ 7% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 37% LIB 22% CPQ 18% QS 14% PQ 7% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 37% LIB 22% CPQ 19% QS 14% PQ 7% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 39% LIB 22% CPQ 18% QS 13% PQ 6% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 38% LIB 22% CPQ 19% QS 13% PQ 6% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 37% LIB 22% CPQ 18% QS 14% PQ 8% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 37% LIB 22% CPQ 18% QS 13% PQ 8% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 37% LIB 22% CPQ 18% QS 13% PQ 8% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 38% LIB 22% CPQ 17% QS 13% PQ 8% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 37% LIB 22% CPQ 17% QS 13% PQ 8% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 37% LIB 22% CPQ 17% QS 13% PQ 9% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 52% LIB 14% QS 13% CPQ 10% PQ 10% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 52% LIB 14% QS 13% PQ 11% CPQ 9% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 52% LIB 14% QS 13% PQ 11% CPQ 9% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 51% QS 15% LIB 13% PQ 12% CPQ 8% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 51% QS 15% LIB 13% PQ 12% CPQ 7% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 47% PQ 18% QS 14% LIB 14% CPQ 7% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 48% PQ 18% QS 14% LIB 13% CPQ 6% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 48% PQ 18% QS 14% LIB 13% CPQ 6% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 51% PQ 16% QS 14% LIB 11% CPQ 7% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 45% PQ 15% QS 14% LIB 13% CPQ 10% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 45% PQ 15% QS 14% LIB 13% CPQ 10% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 36% PQ 23% LIB 16% QS 14% CPQ 9% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 33% PQ 24% LIB 17% QS 15% CPQ 9% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CAQ 33% PQ 25% LIB 16% QS 16% CPQ 8% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 CAQ 29% PQ 26% LIB 18% QS 17% CPQ 9% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 30% PQ 26% LIB 18% QS 15% CPQ 9% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 31% PQ 24% LIB 18% QS 16% CPQ 9% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CAQ 29% PQ 26% LIB 18% QS 16% CPQ 8% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 29% LIB 24% PQ 24% QS 13% CPQ 8% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 28% LIB 24% PQ 23% QS 12% CPQ 9% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 30% LIB 24% PQ 22% QS 12% CPQ 9% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 30% LIB 24% PQ 21% QS 13% CPQ 9% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 30% LIB 24% PQ 21% QS 14% CPQ 9% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 29% LIB 24% PQ 21% QS 13% CPQ 10% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CAQ 27% LIB 25% PQ 23% QS 13% CPQ 9% 2024-11-15

Odds of winning | Chapleau

LIB 30% PQ 8% CAQ 61% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 99% LIB 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 97% PQ 3% LIB <1% QS <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CAQ 92% PQ 8% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 CAQ 71% PQ 29% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 80% PQ 20% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 92% PQ 8% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CAQ 75% PQ 25% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 78% LIB 13% PQ 9% QS <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 75% LIB 17% PQ 9% QS <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 86% LIB 12% PQ 2% QS <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 86% LIB 12% PQ 2% QS <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 89% LIB 10% PQ 1% QS <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 83% LIB 15% PQ 2% QS <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CAQ 61% LIB 30% PQ 8% QS <1% 2024-11-15

Recent electoral history | Chapleau



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 14.7% 40.4% 52.3% 27% ± 6% LIB 57.8% 32.6% 13.6% 25% ± 7% QS 5.9% 15.8% 13.2% 13% ± 4% CPQ 0.0% 1.5% 10.1% 9% ± 4% PQ 18.5% 9.0% 9.7% 23% ± 6% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.