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Quebec


Chapleau


MNA: Mathieu Lévesque (CAQ)


Latest projection: December 7 2023

Likely CAQ hold
Chapleau 33% ± 7% 25% ± 6%▲ 16% ± 5%▼ 16% ± 5%▲ 8% ± 4%▼ CAQ 2022 52.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 7 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Chapleau 92%▼ 8%▲ <1% Odds of winning | December 7 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Chapleau

LIB 16% ± 5% PQ 25% ± 6% CAQ 33% ± 7% QS 16% ± 5% QCP 8% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Chapleau 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP

Odds of winning | Chapleau

LIB <1% PQ 8% CAQ 92% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS

Recent electoral history | Chapleau



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 14.7% 40.4% 52.3% 33% ± 7% LIB 57.8% 32.6% 13.6% 16% ± 5% QS 5.9% 15.8% 13.2% 16% ± 5% QCP 0.0% 1.5% 10.1% 8% ± 4% PQ 18.5% 9.0% 9.7% 25% ± 6% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%