logo
Quebec

Nelligan


MNA: Monsef Derraji (LIB)

Latest projection: October 5, 2025
Safe LIB

Recent electoral history | Nelligan


2014 2018 2022 Proj. LIB 67% ± 7% 80.3% 65.1% 52.0% CPQ 14% ± 5% 0.4% 3.0% 15.1% PQ 10% ± 4% 6.9% 4.5% 4.2% CAQ 6% ± 3% 9.5% 17.2% 16.6% QS 2% ± 1% 0.0% 5.5% 5.3%




338Canada projection for Nelligan


Nelligan 67% ± 7% LIB 14% ± 5%▲ CPQ 10% ± 4%▼ PQ 6% ± 3%▲ CAQ 2% ± 1% QS LIB 2022 52.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 5, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Nelligan >99% LIB <1% CPQ <1% PQ Odds of winning | October 5, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Nelligan

LIB 67% ± 7% PQ 10% ± 4% CAQ 6% ± 3% CPQ 14% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Nelligan 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-04-01 LIB PQ CAQ CPQ October 5, 2025 2024-02-18 LIB 51% CPQ 15% CAQ 13% PQ 10% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 51% CPQ 15% CAQ 13% PQ 10% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 51% CPQ 14% CAQ 13% PQ 10% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 55% CPQ 14% CAQ 12% PQ 11% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 55% CPQ 13% CAQ 11% PQ 11% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 56% CPQ 13% CAQ 12% PQ 11% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 55% CPQ 13% PQ 12% CAQ 11% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB 53% CPQ 16% PQ 11% CAQ 11% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB 53% CPQ 18% PQ 11% CAQ 10% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 53% CPQ 16% PQ 13% CAQ 9% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB 53% CPQ 16% PQ 12% CAQ 9% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB 54% CPQ 16% PQ 12% CAQ 9% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 LIB 58% CPQ 16% PQ 11% CAQ 9% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 LIB 59% CPQ 16% PQ 10% CAQ 8% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 LIB 59% CPQ 15% PQ 10% CAQ 9% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 LIB 59% CPQ 15% PQ 10% CAQ 9% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 LIB 61% CPQ 15% PQ 10% CAQ 8% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 LIB 64% CPQ 14% PQ 9% CAQ 7% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 LIB 68% CPQ 13% PQ 7% CAQ 6% 2025-06-27 2025-08-13 LIB 68% CPQ 13% PQ 8% CAQ 6% 2025-08-13 2025-08-22 LIB 69% CPQ 12% PQ 8% CAQ 6% 2025-08-22 2025-09-10 LIB 66% CPQ 13% PQ 11% CAQ 5% 2025-09-10 2025-09-19 LIB 67% CPQ 13% PQ 11% CAQ 5% 2025-09-19 2025-10-05 LIB 67% CPQ 14% PQ 10% CAQ 6% 2025-10-05 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader

Odds of winning | Nelligan

LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% CPQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-04-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ October 5, 2025 2024-02-18 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2025-06-27 2025-08-13 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2025-08-13 2025-08-22 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2025-08-22 2025-09-10 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2025-09-10 2025-09-19 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2025-09-19 2025-10-05 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2025-10-05 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader
>99% <1% 21% ± 5% 79% ± 5% Projection of support for souvereignty | Nelligan YES NO 338Canada October 5, 2025