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Quebec

Nelligan


MNA: Monsef Derraji (LIB)

Latest projection: April 26, 2024
Safe LIB hold
Nelligan 55% ± 9%▲ LIB 14% ± 5% QCP 12% ± 4%▼ CAQ 11% ± 4%▲ PQ 6% ± 3%▼ QS LIB 2022 52.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | April 26, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Nelligan >99% LIB <1% QCP <1% CAQ Odds of winning | April 26, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Nelligan

LIB 55% ± 9% PQ 11% ± 4% CAQ 12% ± 4% QS 6% ± 3% QCP 14% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Nelligan 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP April 26, 2024

Odds of winning | Nelligan

LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS April 26, 2024

Recent electoral history | Nelligan



2014 2018 2022 Proj. LIB 80.3% 65.1% 52.0% 55% ± 9% CAQ 9.5% 17.2% 16.6% 12% ± 4% QCP 0.4% 3.0% 15.1% 14% ± 5% QS 0.0% 5.5% 5.3% 6% ± 3% PQ 6.9% 4.5% 4.2% 11% ± 4% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.