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Quebec


Nelligan


MNA: Monsef Derraji (LIB)


Latest projection: December 7 2023

Safe LIB hold
Nelligan 55% ± 8%▲ 14% ± 5% 14% ± 5%▼ 9% ± 3%▲ 6% ± 3%▲ 3% ± 2%▼ OTH LIB 2022 52.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 7 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Nelligan >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | December 7 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Nelligan

LIB 55% ± 8% PQ 9% ± 3% CAQ 14% ± 5% QS 6% ± 3% QCP 14% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Nelligan 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP

Odds of winning | Nelligan

LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS

Recent electoral history | Nelligan



2014 2018 2022 Proj. LIB 80.3% 65.1% 52.0% 55% ± 8% CAQ 9.5% 17.2% 16.6% 14% ± 5% QCP 0.4% 3.0% 15.1% 14% ± 5% QS 0.0% 5.5% 5.3% 6% ± 3% PQ 6.9% 4.5% 4.2% 9% ± 3% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0% ± 1%