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Quebec

Nelligan


MNA: Monsef Derraji (LIB)

Latest projection: June 27, 2025
Safe LIB

Recent electoral history | Nelligan


2014 2018 2022 Proj. LIB 68% ± 7% 80.3% 65.1% 52.0% CPQ 13% ± 5% 0.4% 3.0% 15.1% PQ 7% ± 3% 6.9% 4.5% 4.2% CAQ 6% ± 3% 9.5% 17.2% 16.6% QS 3% ± 2% 0.0% 5.5% 5.3%




338Canada projection for Nelligan


Nelligan 68% ± 7%▲ LIB 13% ± 5%▼ CPQ 7% ± 3%▼ PQ 6% ± 3%▼ CAQ 3% ± 2%▼ QS 2% ± 2% IND LIB 2022 52.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Nelligan >99% LIB <1% CPQ <1% PQ Odds of winning | June 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Nelligan

LIB 68% ± 7% PQ 7% ± 3% CAQ 6% ± 3% QS 3% ± 2% CPQ 13% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Nelligan 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 LIB 51% CPQ 15% CAQ 13% PQ 10% QS 7% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 51% CPQ 15% CAQ 13% PQ 10% QS 7% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 51% CPQ 14% CAQ 13% PQ 10% QS 7% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 55% CPQ 14% CAQ 12% PQ 11% QS 6% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 55% CPQ 13% CAQ 11% PQ 11% QS 5% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 56% CPQ 13% CAQ 12% PQ 11% QS 6% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 55% CPQ 13% PQ 12% CAQ 11% QS 6% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB 53% CPQ 16% PQ 11% CAQ 11% QS 6% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB 53% CPQ 18% PQ 11% CAQ 10% QS 6% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 53% CPQ 16% PQ 13% CAQ 9% QS 6% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB 53% CPQ 16% PQ 12% CAQ 9% QS 6% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB 54% CPQ 16% PQ 12% CAQ 9% QS 6% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 LIB 58% CPQ 16% PQ 11% CAQ 9% QS 4% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 LIB 59% CPQ 16% PQ 10% CAQ 8% QS 4% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 LIB 59% CPQ 15% PQ 10% CAQ 9% QS 4% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 LIB 59% CPQ 15% PQ 10% CAQ 9% QS 4% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 LIB 61% CPQ 15% PQ 10% CAQ 8% QS 4% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 LIB 64% CPQ 14% PQ 9% CAQ 7% QS 4% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 LIB 68% CPQ 13% PQ 7% CAQ 6% QS 3% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader

Odds of winning | Nelligan

LIB >99% CAQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB CAQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader