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Quebec

Nelligan


MNA: Monsef Derraji (LIB)

Latest projection: June 17, 2024
Safe LIB hold
Nelligan 55% ± 8%▼ LIB 13% ± 5% CPQ 12% ± 4%▲ PQ 11% ± 4%▼ CAQ 6% ± 3% QS 2% ± 2% OTH LIB 2022 52.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Nelligan >99% LIB <1% CPQ <1% PQ Odds of winning | June 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Nelligan

LIB 55% ± 8% PQ 12% ± 4% CAQ 11% ± 4% QS 6% ± 3% CPQ 13% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Nelligan 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ June 17, 2024 2022-08-25 LIB 56% CAQ 21% CPQ 8% QS 5% PQ 3% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 LIB 55% CAQ 21% CPQ 9% QS 5% PQ 3% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 LIB 54% CAQ 20% CPQ 11% QS 5% PQ 2% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 LIB 54% CAQ 20% CPQ 11% QS 5% PQ 2% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 LIB 54% CAQ 20% CPQ 11% QS 5% PQ 2% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 LIB 58% CAQ 21% CPQ 11% QS 5% PQ 2% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 LIB 59% CAQ 21% CPQ 11% QS 5% PQ 2% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 LIB 59% CAQ 20% CPQ 11% QS 5% PQ 2% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 LIB 59% CAQ 20% CPQ 11% QS 5% PQ 2% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 LIB 58% CAQ 20% CPQ 11% QS 5% PQ 3% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 LIB 58% CAQ 20% CPQ 11% QS 5% PQ 3% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 LIB 59% CAQ 20% CPQ 11% QS 5% PQ 3% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 LIB 59% CAQ 20% CPQ 11% QS 4% PQ 3% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 LIB 58% CAQ 20% CPQ 12% QS 4% PQ 3% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 LIB 58% CAQ 20% CPQ 12% QS 4% PQ 3% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 LIB 57% CAQ 20% CPQ 13% QS 4% PQ 3% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 LIB 57% CAQ 20% CPQ 13% QS 4% PQ 3% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 LIB 57% CAQ 20% CPQ 13% QS 4% PQ 3% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 LIB 50% CAQ 21% CPQ 13% QS 4% PQ 3% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 LIB 51% CAQ 19% CPQ 12% QS 5% PQ 3% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 LIB 51% CAQ 20% CPQ 12% QS 5% PQ 3% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 LIB 50% CAQ 20% CPQ 12% QS 5% PQ 3% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 LIB 51% CAQ 19% CPQ 12% QS 5% PQ 3% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 LIB 51% CAQ 19% CPQ 12% QS 5% PQ 3% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 LIB 50% CAQ 19% CPQ 12% PQ 6% QS 5% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 LIB 49% CAQ 19% CPQ 12% PQ 6% QS 5% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 LIB 50% CAQ 19% CPQ 12% PQ 6% QS 5% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 LIB 50% CAQ 19% CPQ 12% PQ 6% QS 5% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 LIB 51% CAQ 18% CPQ 12% PQ 5% QS 5% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 LIB 51% CAQ 20% CPQ 12% PQ 5% QS 5% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 LIB 52% CAQ 20% CPQ 11% PQ 5% QS 5% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 LIB 52% CAQ 19% CPQ 11% PQ 7% QS 5% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 LIB 53% CAQ 18% CPQ 11% PQ 7% QS 5% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 LIB 53% CAQ 18% CPQ 11% PQ 7% QS 5% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 LIB 54% CAQ 18% CPQ 10% PQ 7% QS 5% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 LIB 53% CAQ 18% CPQ 10% PQ 7% QS 5% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 LIB 53% CAQ 18% CPQ 10% PQ 7% QS 5% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 LIB 52% CAQ 17% CPQ 15% QS 5% PQ 4% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 LIB 52% CAQ 17% CPQ 15% QS 5% PQ 4% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 LIB 52% CAQ 17% CPQ 15% QS 5% PQ 4% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 LIB 54% CAQ 17% CPQ 13% QS 6% PQ 5% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 LIB 54% CAQ 18% CPQ 13% QS 6% PQ 5% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 LIB 55% CAQ 18% CPQ 12% QS 6% PQ 5% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 LIB 53% CAQ 19% CPQ 12% QS 6% PQ 5% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 LIB 53% CAQ 19% CPQ 12% QS 6% PQ 5% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 LIB 50% CAQ 19% CPQ 14% QS 6% PQ 5% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 LIB 53% CAQ 17% CPQ 15% QS 5% PQ 5% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 LIB 53% CAQ 17% CPQ 15% QS 5% PQ 5% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 LIB 53% CAQ 16% CPQ 15% PQ 5% QS 5% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB 54% CAQ 16% CPQ 14% PQ 5% QS 5% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 LIB 55% CPQ 14% CAQ 14% PQ 9% QS 6% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 LIB 51% CPQ 16% CAQ 12% PQ 10% QS 7% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 LIB 51% CPQ 15% CAQ 13% PQ 10% QS 7% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 51% CPQ 15% CAQ 13% PQ 10% QS 7% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 51% CPQ 14% CAQ 13% PQ 10% QS 7% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 55% CPQ 14% CAQ 12% PQ 11% QS 6% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 55% CPQ 13% CAQ 11% PQ 11% QS 5% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 56% CPQ 13% CAQ 12% PQ 11% QS 6% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 55% CPQ 13% PQ 12% CAQ 11% QS 6% 2024-06-17

Odds of winning | Nelligan

LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS June 17, 2024 2022-08-25 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-06-17

Recent electoral history | Nelligan



2014 2018 2022 Proj. LIB 80.3% 65.1% 52.0% 55% ± 8% CAQ 9.5% 17.2% 16.6% 11% ± 4% CPQ 0.4% 3.0% 15.1% 13% ± 5% QS 0.0% 5.5% 5.3% 6% ± 3% PQ 6.9% 4.5% 4.2% 12% ± 4% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.