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Nelligan

Latest update: March 5, 2026
L
MNA: Monsef Derraji
Quebec Liberal Party
Safe LIB
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Recent electoral history | Nelligan


2014 2018 2022 Projection LIB 68% ± 7% 80.3% 65.1% 52.0% CPQ 15% ± 5% 0.4% 3.0% 15.1% PQ 9% ± 4% 6.9% 4.5% 4.2% CAQ 4% ± 2% 9.5% 17.2% 16.6% QS 2% ± 2% 0.0% 5.5% 5.3%

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338Canada Nelligan projection

Latest update: March 5, 2026

Nelligan 61% 75% 68% ± 7% ▲ LIB 10% 20% 15% ± 5% ▼ CPQ 5% 12% 9% ± 4% PQ 2% 6% 4% ± 2% ▼ CAQ LIB 2022 52.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 5, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Nelligan >99% LIB <1% CPQ <1% PQ Odds of winning | March 5, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Nelligan

LIB 68% ± 7% PQ 9% ± 4% CAQ 4% ± 2% CPQ 15% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Nelligan 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 LIB PQ CAQ CPQ March 5, 2026 2025-03-05 LIB 59% CPQ 16% PQ 10% CAQ 8% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 LIB 59% CPQ 15% PQ 10% CAQ 9% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 LIB 59% CPQ 15% PQ 10% CAQ 9% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 LIB 61% CPQ 15% PQ 10% CAQ 8% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 LIB 64% CPQ 14% PQ 9% CAQ 7% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 LIB 68% CPQ 13% PQ 7% CAQ 6% 2025-06-27 2025-08-13 LIB 68% CPQ 13% PQ 8% CAQ 6% 2025-08-13 2025-08-22 LIB 69% CPQ 12% PQ 8% CAQ 6% 2025-08-22 2025-09-10 LIB 66% CPQ 13% PQ 11% CAQ 5% 2025-09-10 2025-09-19 LIB 67% CPQ 13% PQ 11% CAQ 5% 2025-09-19 2025-10-05 LIB 67% CPQ 14% PQ 10% CAQ 6% 2025-10-05 2025-11-13 LIB 68% CPQ 14% PQ 9% CAQ 6% 2025-11-13 2025-12-03 LIB 62% CPQ 16% PQ 11% CAQ 6% 2025-12-03 2025-12-19 LIB 60% CPQ 18% PQ 11% CAQ 7% 2025-12-19 2026-01-14 LIB 61% CPQ 18% PQ 11% CAQ 6% 2026-01-14 2026-02-03 LIB 63% CPQ 16% PQ 10% CAQ 6% 2026-02-03 2026-02-27 LIB 65% CPQ 16% PQ 9% CAQ 5% 2026-02-27 2026-03-05 LIB 68% CPQ 15% PQ 9% CAQ 4% 2026-03-05 ▼ Rodriguez PLQ leader ▼ Zanetti QS co-leader ▼ Rodriguez resigns ▼ Legault resigns ▼ Milliard PLQ leader

Odds of winning | Nelligan

LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% CPQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ March 5, 2026 2025-03-05 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2025-06-27 2025-08-13 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2025-08-13 2025-08-22 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2025-08-22 2025-09-10 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2025-09-10 2025-09-19 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2025-09-19 2025-10-05 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2025-10-05 2025-11-13 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2025-11-13 2025-12-03 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2025-12-03 2025-12-19 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2025-12-19 2026-01-14 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2026-01-14 2026-02-03 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2026-02-03 2026-02-27 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2026-02-27 2026-03-05 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2026-03-05 ▼ Rodriguez PLQ leader ▼ Zanetti QS co-leader ▼ Rodriguez resigns ▼ Legault resigns ▼ Milliard PLQ leader
>99% <1% 20% ± 5% 80% ± 5% ▼ ▲ Projection of support for sovereignty | Nelligan YES NO 338Canada March 5, 2026


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Demographic data | Nelligan

Canadian Census, 2021
Language 51.1% English 26.9% French 3.8% Arabic 3.6% Mandarin 1.8% Spanish 1.6% Iranian Persian 1.2% RomanianNelliganSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Language spoken most often at home (single responses only).
Language spoken most often at home refers to the language the person speaks most often at home at the time of data collection. For a person who lives alone, the language spoken most often at home is the language in which they feel most comfortable. For a child who has not yet learned to speak, this is the language spoken most often to the child at home.
Education 6.2% No diploma 17.9% High school 8.5% Trade 18.2% College / Cégep 4.4% Some university 29.3% Bachelor's 15.6% PostgraduateNelliganSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Highest certificate/diploma/degree for population aged 25 to 64 years.
Education information of Canadian population in private households only (population aged 25-64 years old).

Visible minorities 61.2% Not visible minority 38.8% Visible minority 8.0% Arab 7.3% South Asian 6.8% Black 6.2% Chinese 3.0% Filipino 2.2% West AsianNelliganSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect visible minority populations in private households.
Visible minority refers to whether a person is a visible minority or not, as defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour".
Religion / Spirituality 38.7% Catholic 21.5% No Religion 8.9% Orthodox 8.8% Muslim 7.0% Christian (n.o.s.) 3.2% Hindu 2.8% Other Christian 2.0% JewishNelliganSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Self-identified connection to/affiliation with religious denomination.
Religious groups shown are the most commonly reported responses in each riding. Christian subgroups are listed separately when among the top responses. (The label “Christian n.o.s.” means that the Christian denomination was not identified by the respondent.)

Tenure status 78.7% Owner 21.3% RenterNelliganSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Tenure status of residents.
Tenure refers to whether the household owns or rents their private dwelling. The private dwelling may be situated on rented or leased land or be part of a condominium. (Note: Community housing refers to dwellings provided by a First Nation, band, or local government.)
Labour force 59.7% Employed 34.5% Not in labour force 5.8% UnemployedNelliganSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Labour force status, population aged 15 years and over.
Employed here means active part of labour force (including employees and self-employed). Population outside of labour force includes retirees, full-time students, caregives, and people with disabilities.

Indigenous identity 99.3% Non-Indigenous 0.7% Indigenous identity 0.4% First Nations 0.2% Metis 0.1% Others 0.1% MultipleNelliganSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Data reflect self-identification with Indigenous peoples of Canada.
Indigenous identity refers to whether the person identified with the Indigenous peoples of Canada. This includes those who identify as First Nations (North American Indian), Métis and/or Inuk (Inuit), and/or those who report being Registered or Treaty Indians (that is, registered under the Indian Act of Canada), and/or those who have membership in a First Nation or Indian band.
Mode of commuting 86.0% Car / truck / van 8.8% Public transit 2.5% Walking 2.1% Other 0.6% BicycleNelliganSource: 2021 Canadian Census. Main mode of commuting for employed labour force.
The census assumes that the commute to work originates from the usual place of residence, but this may not always be the case.