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Quebec

Mont-Royal -Outremont


MNA: Michelle Setlakwe

Latest projection: December 8, 2024
Likely LIB hold
Mont-Royal -Outremont 39% ± 8%▲ LIB 23% ± 6% QS 19% ± 5% PQ 9% ± 4% CAQ 8% ± 4% CPQ 2% ± 2% IND LIB 2022 39.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 8, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Mont-Royal -Outremont >99% LIB <1% QS <1% PQ Odds of winning | December 8, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Mont-Royal -Outremont

LIB 39% ± 8% PQ 19% ± 5% CAQ 9% ± 4% QS 23% ± 6% CPQ 8% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Mont-Royal -Outremont 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 LIB 45% CAQ 22% QS 15% CPQ 8% PQ 7% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 LIB 45% CAQ 23% QS 15% CPQ 9% PQ 6% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 LIB 44% CAQ 22% QS 15% CPQ 10% PQ 5% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 LIB 44% CAQ 22% QS 15% CPQ 10% PQ 5% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 LIB 44% CAQ 22% QS 15% CPQ 10% PQ 5% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 LIB 46% CAQ 22% QS 14% CPQ 10% PQ 5% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 LIB 46% CAQ 21% QS 14% CPQ 10% PQ 5% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 LIB 46% CAQ 21% QS 14% CPQ 10% PQ 5% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 LIB 46% CAQ 21% QS 14% CPQ 10% PQ 5% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 LIB 46% CAQ 21% QS 14% CPQ 10% PQ 6% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 LIB 46% CAQ 21% QS 14% CPQ 10% PQ 6% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 LIB 46% CAQ 21% QS 14% CPQ 10% PQ 6% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 LIB 46% CAQ 21% QS 14% CPQ 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 LIB 46% CAQ 21% QS 12% CPQ 12% PQ 6% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 LIB 46% CAQ 21% QS 12% CPQ 12% PQ 6% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 LIB 46% CAQ 21% QS 12% CPQ 12% PQ 6% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 LIB 46% CAQ 21% QS 12% CPQ 12% PQ 6% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 LIB 45% CAQ 21% QS 12% CPQ 12% PQ 6% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 LIB 43% CAQ 21% QS 12% CPQ 10% PQ 6% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 LIB 43% CAQ 19% QS 14% CPQ 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 LIB 43% CAQ 20% QS 14% CPQ 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 LIB 43% CAQ 20% QS 14% CPQ 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 LIB 44% CAQ 20% QS 13% CPQ 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 LIB 44% CAQ 20% QS 13% CPQ 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 LIB 42% CAQ 19% QS 13% CPQ 9% PQ 9% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 LIB 42% CAQ 19% QS 14% CPQ 9% PQ 9% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 LIB 42% CAQ 19% QS 14% CPQ 9% PQ 8% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 LIB 42% CAQ 19% QS 14% CPQ 9% PQ 8% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 LIB 43% CAQ 19% QS 14% CPQ 9% PQ 8% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 LIB 44% CAQ 21% QS 13% CPQ 8% PQ 8% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 LIB 45% CAQ 20% QS 13% CPQ 8% PQ 8% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 LIB 45% CAQ 19% QS 13% PQ 9% CPQ 8% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 LIB 45% CAQ 19% QS 13% PQ 9% CPQ 8% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 LIB 45% CAQ 19% QS 13% PQ 9% CPQ 8% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 LIB 46% CAQ 18% QS 13% PQ 9% CPQ 7% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 LIB 45% CAQ 18% QS 13% PQ 10% CPQ 8% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 LIB 45% CAQ 18% QS 13% PQ 10% CPQ 7% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 LIB 38% QS 20% CAQ 15% PQ 11% CPQ 8% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 LIB 38% QS 20% CAQ 15% PQ 12% CPQ 8% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 LIB 38% QS 20% CAQ 15% PQ 12% CPQ 8% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 LIB 39% QS 22% CAQ 16% PQ 13% CPQ 7% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 LIB 38% QS 22% CAQ 16% PQ 13% CPQ 7% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 LIB 38% QS 22% CAQ 16% PQ 13% CPQ 6% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 LIB 36% QS 22% CAQ 17% PQ 15% CPQ 6% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 LIB 36% QS 22% CAQ 17% PQ 15% CPQ 6% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 LIB 34% QS 22% CAQ 17% PQ 15% CPQ 6% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 LIB 38% QS 20% CAQ 15% PQ 13% CPQ 8% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 LIB 38% QS 20% CAQ 15% PQ 13% CPQ 8% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 LIB 38% QS 19% CAQ 15% PQ 13% CPQ 9% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB 39% QS 19% CAQ 15% PQ 13% CPQ 8% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 LIB 39% QS 22% PQ 16% CAQ 13% CPQ 8% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 LIB 34% QS 26% PQ 17% CAQ 10% CPQ 8% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 LIB 35% QS 25% PQ 18% CAQ 11% CPQ 8% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 35% QS 24% PQ 17% CAQ 11% CPQ 8% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 35% QS 25% PQ 17% CAQ 11% CPQ 8% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 39% QS 24% PQ 17% CAQ 11% CPQ 8% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 39% QS 22% PQ 17% CAQ 11% CPQ 8% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 39% QS 23% PQ 17% CAQ 11% CPQ 8% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 38% QS 24% PQ 17% CAQ 10% CPQ 8% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB 37% QS 25% PQ 17% CAQ 10% CPQ 8% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB 38% QS 23% PQ 17% CAQ 10% CPQ 9% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 38% QS 23% PQ 19% CAQ 9% CPQ 8% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB 38% QS 23% PQ 19% CAQ 9% CPQ 8% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB 39% QS 23% PQ 19% CAQ 9% CPQ 8% 2024-12-08

Odds of winning | Mont-Royal -Outremont

LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 LIB 99% QS 1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 LIB 93% QS 7% PQ <1% CAQ <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 LIB 96% QS 4% PQ <1% CAQ <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 97% QS 3% PQ <1% CAQ <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 96% QS 4% PQ <1% CAQ <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 99% QS 1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 99% QS 1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB 98% QS 2% PQ <1% CAQ <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB >99% QS <1% PQ <1% CAQ <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB >99% QS <1% PQ <1% CAQ <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB >99% QS <1% PQ <1% CAQ <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB >99% QS <1% PQ <1% CAQ <1% 2024-12-08

Recent electoral history | Mont-Royal -Outremont



2014 2018 2022 Proj. LIB 65.3% 51.3% 39.3% 39% ± 8% QS 10.7% 15.5% 20.3% 23% ± 6% CAQ 9.2% 13.5% 15.8% 9% ± 4% PQ 11.7% 11.8% 11.4% 19% ± 5% CPQ 0.4% 1.6% 8.5% 8% ± 4% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.