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Quebec

Marguerite-Bourgeoys


MNA: Fred Beauchemin (LIB)

Latest projection: May 19, 2024
Safe LIB hold
Marguerite-Bourgeoys 46% ± 9% LIB 15% ± 5%▼ PQ 15% ± 5%▼ CAQ 10% ± 4%▼ QS 10% ± 4% QCP 3% ± 3%▲ OTH LIB 2022 44.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 19, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Marguerite-Bourgeoys >99% LIB <1% PQ <1% CAQ Odds of winning | May 19, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Marguerite-Bourgeoys

LIB 46% ± 9% PQ 15% ± 5% CAQ 15% ± 5% QS 10% ± 4% QCP 10% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Marguerite-Bourgeoys 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP May 19, 2024

Odds of winning | Marguerite-Bourgeoys

LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS May 19, 2024

Recent electoral history | Marguerite-Bourgeoys



2014 2018 2022 Proj. LIB 70.1% 53.4% 44.8% 46% ± 9% CAQ 9.9% 23.5% 23.2% 15% ± 5% QCP 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 10% ± 4% QS 4.0% 10.8% 10.3% 10% ± 4% PQ 13.9% 8.4% 7.0% 15% ± 5% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3% ± 3% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.