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Quebec

Marguerite-Bourgeoys


MNA: Fred Beauchemin

Latest projection: December 8, 2024
Safe LIB hold
Marguerite-Bourgeoys 44% ± 8% LIB 18% ± 5% PQ 13% ± 5% CPQ 12% ± 4% CAQ 10% ± 4% QS 2% ± 2% IND LIB 2022 44.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 8, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Marguerite-Bourgeoys >99% LIB <1% PQ <1% CPQ Odds of winning | December 8, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Marguerite-Bourgeoys

LIB 44% ± 8% PQ 18% ± 5% CAQ 12% ± 4% QS 10% ± 4% CPQ 13% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Marguerite-Bourgeoys 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 LIB 40% CAQ 35% QS 10% CPQ 9% PQ 5% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 LIB 39% CAQ 36% QS 9% CPQ 9% PQ 4% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 LIB 39% CAQ 33% QS 10% CPQ 9% PQ 6% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 LIB 39% CAQ 33% QS 10% CPQ 9% PQ 6% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 LIB 39% CAQ 33% QS 10% CPQ 9% PQ 6% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 LIB 39% CAQ 33% QS 10% CPQ 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 LIB 40% CAQ 32% QS 10% CPQ 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 LIB 40% CAQ 32% QS 10% CPQ 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 LIB 40% CAQ 32% QS 10% CPQ 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 LIB 40% CAQ 32% QS 10% CPQ 9% PQ 7% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 LIB 38% CAQ 32% QS 11% CPQ 9% PQ 7% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 LIB 38% CAQ 32% QS 11% CPQ 9% PQ 7% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 LIB 38% CAQ 32% QS 11% CPQ 9% PQ 7% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 LIB 37% CAQ 32% CPQ 10% QS 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 LIB 37% CAQ 32% CPQ 10% QS 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 LIB 37% CAQ 32% CPQ 10% QS 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 LIB 37% CAQ 32% CPQ 10% QS 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 LIB 37% CAQ 33% CPQ 10% QS 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 LIB 35% CAQ 32% CPQ 10% QS 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 LIB 36% CAQ 30% QS 11% CPQ 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 LIB 36% CAQ 31% QS 11% CPQ 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 LIB 35% CAQ 31% QS 11% CPQ 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 LIB 36% CAQ 31% QS 11% CPQ 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 LIB 36% CAQ 31% QS 11% CPQ 10% PQ 7% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 LIB 35% CAQ 30% QS 11% CPQ 10% PQ 10% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 LIB 34% CAQ 30% QS 11% CPQ 10% PQ 10% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 LIB 35% CAQ 30% QS 11% CPQ 10% PQ 9% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 LIB 35% CAQ 30% QS 11% CPQ 10% PQ 9% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 LIB 36% CAQ 29% QS 10% CPQ 9% PQ 9% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 LIB 36% CAQ 31% QS 10% CPQ 9% PQ 9% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 LIB 39% CAQ 29% QS 10% CPQ 9% PQ 9% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 LIB 39% CAQ 27% PQ 10% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 LIB 39% CAQ 27% PQ 10% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 LIB 39% CAQ 27% PQ 10% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 LIB 40% CAQ 26% PQ 10% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 LIB 40% CAQ 26% PQ 11% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 LIB 40% CAQ 26% PQ 11% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 LIB 45% CAQ 23% CPQ 11% QS 10% PQ 7% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 LIB 45% CAQ 23% CPQ 11% QS 10% PQ 7% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 LIB 45% CAQ 23% CPQ 11% QS 10% PQ 7% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 LIB 45% CAQ 24% QS 11% CPQ 9% PQ 8% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 LIB 45% CAQ 24% QS 12% CPQ 9% PQ 8% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 LIB 45% CAQ 24% QS 11% PQ 8% CPQ 8% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 LIB 44% CAQ 25% QS 11% PQ 9% CPQ 8% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 LIB 44% CAQ 25% QS 11% PQ 9% CPQ 8% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 LIB 41% CAQ 25% QS 11% CPQ 10% PQ 9% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 LIB 45% CAQ 22% CPQ 12% QS 10% PQ 8% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 LIB 45% CAQ 22% CPQ 12% QS 10% PQ 8% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 LIB 45% CAQ 22% CPQ 11% QS 10% PQ 8% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB 46% CAQ 22% CPQ 10% QS 10% PQ 9% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 LIB 46% CAQ 18% PQ 13% QS 11% CPQ 10% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 LIB 42% CAQ 15% PQ 14% QS 14% CPQ 11% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 LIB 42% CAQ 17% PQ 14% QS 13% CPQ 11% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 41% CAQ 17% PQ 15% QS 13% CPQ 11% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 42% CAQ 17% PQ 15% QS 14% CPQ 10% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 46% PQ 16% CAQ 16% QS 12% CPQ 10% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 46% PQ 15% CAQ 15% QS 10% CPQ 10% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 46% PQ 16% CAQ 15% QS 11% CPQ 9% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 45% PQ 16% CAQ 15% QS 11% CPQ 9% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB 43% PQ 16% CAQ 15% CPQ 12% QS 12% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB 43% PQ 16% CAQ 14% CPQ 14% QS 11% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 44% PQ 17% CAQ 13% CPQ 13% QS 11% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB 44% PQ 18% CPQ 13% CAQ 12% QS 10% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB 44% PQ 18% CPQ 13% CAQ 12% QS 10% 2024-12-08

Odds of winning | Marguerite-Bourgeoys

LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 LIB 75% CAQ 25% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 LIB 68% CAQ 32% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 LIB 81% CAQ 19% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 LIB 81% CAQ 19% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 LIB 81% CAQ 19% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 LIB 83% CAQ 17% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 LIB 86% CAQ 14% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 LIB 87% CAQ 13% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 LIB 88% CAQ 12% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 LIB 88% CAQ 12% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 LIB 78% CAQ 22% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 LIB 78% CAQ 22% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 LIB 78% CAQ 22% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 LIB 78% CAQ 22% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 LIB 79% CAQ 21% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 LIB 77% CAQ 23% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 LIB 77% CAQ 23% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 LIB 75% CAQ 25% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 LIB 68% CAQ 32% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 LIB 81% CAQ 19% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 LIB 78% CAQ 22% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 LIB 77% CAQ 23% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 LIB 78% CAQ 22% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 LIB 78% CAQ 22% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 LIB 78% CAQ 22% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 LIB 77% CAQ 23% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 LIB 80% CAQ 20% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 LIB 80% CAQ 20% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 LIB 85% CAQ 15% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 LIB 81% CAQ 19% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 LIB 93% CAQ 7% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 LIB 97% CAQ 3% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 LIB 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 LIB 97% CAQ 3% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 LIB 99% CAQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 LIB 99% CAQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 LIB 99% CAQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-12-08

Recent electoral history | Marguerite-Bourgeoys



2014 2018 2022 Proj. LIB 70.1% 53.4% 44.8% 44% ± 8% CAQ 9.9% 23.5% 23.2% 12% ± 4% CPQ 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 13% ± 5% QS 4.0% 10.8% 10.3% 10% ± 4% PQ 13.9% 8.4% 7.0% 18% ± 5% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.