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Quebec

Saint-Laurent


MNA: Marwah Rizqy (LIB)
Latest projection: May 16, 2025
Safe LIB

Saint-Laurent 58% ± 8%▲ LIB 12% ± 4%▼ PQ 12% ± 5% CPQ 8% ± 4%▼ QS 7% ± 3%▼ CAQ 2% ± 2% IND LIB 2022 50.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 16, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Saint-Laurent >99% LIB <1% PQ <1% CPQ Odds of winning | May 16, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).

Popular vote projection | Saint-Laurent

LIB 58% ± 8% PQ 12% ± 4% CAQ 7% ± 3% QS 8% ± 4% CPQ 12% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Saint-Laurent 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 LIB 49% QS 13% CPQ 13% PQ 12% CAQ 9% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 48% QS 13% CPQ 13% PQ 12% CAQ 10% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 48% QS 14% PQ 13% CPQ 12% CAQ 9% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 51% PQ 13% CPQ 12% QS 12% CAQ 10% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 50% PQ 13% CPQ 12% QS 11% CAQ 9% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 51% PQ 14% CPQ 12% QS 12% CAQ 9% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 50% PQ 14% QS 12% CPQ 12% CAQ 9% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB 49% PQ 14% QS 13% CPQ 12% CAQ 9% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB 50% PQ 14% CPQ 12% QS 12% CAQ 9% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 50% PQ 16% QS 12% CPQ 11% CAQ 8% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB 51% PQ 16% QS 12% CPQ 11% CAQ 7% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB 51% PQ 15% QS 12% CPQ 11% CAQ 8% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 LIB 55% PQ 13% CPQ 12% QS 9% CAQ 7% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 LIB 57% PQ 13% CPQ 12% QS 8% CAQ 7% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 LIB 56% PQ 13% CPQ 12% QS 8% CAQ 7% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 LIB 55% PQ 13% CPQ 12% QS 9% CAQ 8% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 LIB 58% PQ 12% CPQ 12% QS 8% CAQ 7% 2025-05-16 Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Saint-Laurent

LIB >99% CAQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB CAQ May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-05-16 Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Saint-Laurent



2014 2018 2022 Proj. LIB 82.3% 61.8% 50.0% 58% ± 8% CAQ 0.0% 15.2% 14.3% 7% ± 3% CPQ 1.1% 3.0% 13.9% 12% ± 5% QS 5.5% 8.6% 9.9% 8% ± 4% PQ 8.1% 6.6% 5.9% 12% ± 4% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%