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Quebec


Saint-Laurent


MNA: Marwah Rizqy (LIB)


Latest projection: September 28, 2023

Safe LIB hold
Saint-Laurent 51% ± 8%▲ 14% ± 5%▼ 13% ± 5%▲ 10% ± 4%▼ 6% ± 3%▼ 4% ± 3%▼ OTH LIB 2022 50.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 28, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Saint-Laurent >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | September 28, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Saint-Laurent

LIB 51% ± 8% PQ 6% ± 3% CAQ 14% ± 5% QS 10% ± 4% QCP 13% ± 5% OTH 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Saint-Laurent 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP OTH

Odds of winning | Saint-Laurent

LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS

Recent electoral history | Saint-Laurent



2014 2018 2022 Proj. LIB 82.3% 61.8% 50.0% 51% ± 8% CAQ 0.0% 15.2% 14.3% 14% ± 5% QCP 1.1% 3.0% 13.9% 13% ± 5% QS 5.5% 8.6% 9.9% 10% ± 4% PQ 8.1% 6.6% 5.9% 6% ± 3% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4% ± 3% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%