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Quebec

Saint-Laurent


MNA: Marwah Rizqy

Latest projection: December 8, 2024
Safe LIB hold
Saint-Laurent 51% ± 9% LIB 15% ± 5%▼ PQ 12% ± 5% QS 11% ± 5% CPQ 8% ± 3%▲ CAQ 2% ± 2% IND LIB 2022 50.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 8, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Saint-Laurent >99% LIB <1% PQ <1% QS Odds of winning | December 8, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Saint-Laurent

LIB 51% ± 9% PQ 15% ± 5% CAQ 8% ± 3% QS 12% ± 5% CPQ 11% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Saint-Laurent 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 LIB 52% CAQ 26% CPQ 8% QS 8% PQ 4% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 LIB 51% CAQ 26% CPQ 9% QS 8% PQ 3% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 LIB 50% CAQ 25% CPQ 11% QS 7% PQ 3% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 LIB 50% CAQ 25% CPQ 11% QS 7% PQ 3% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 LIB 50% CAQ 25% CPQ 11% QS 7% PQ 3% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 LIB 52% CAQ 25% CPQ 11% QS 7% PQ 3% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 LIB 52% CAQ 25% CPQ 11% QS 7% PQ 3% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 LIB 52% CAQ 25% CPQ 11% QS 7% PQ 3% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 LIB 52% CAQ 25% CPQ 11% QS 7% PQ 3% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 LIB 52% CAQ 24% CPQ 11% QS 7% PQ 4% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 LIB 52% CAQ 25% CPQ 10% QS 7% PQ 4% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 LIB 52% CAQ 25% CPQ 10% QS 7% PQ 4% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 LIB 52% CAQ 24% CPQ 10% QS 7% PQ 4% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 LIB 52% CAQ 24% CPQ 12% QS 6% PQ 4% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 LIB 52% CAQ 24% CPQ 12% QS 6% PQ 4% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 LIB 51% CAQ 24% CPQ 12% QS 6% PQ 4% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 LIB 51% CAQ 24% CPQ 12% QS 6% PQ 4% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 LIB 51% CAQ 24% CPQ 12% QS 6% PQ 4% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 LIB 47% CAQ 25% CPQ 12% QS 6% PQ 4% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 LIB 47% CAQ 23% CPQ 12% QS 7% PQ 4% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 LIB 47% CAQ 23% CPQ 12% QS 7% PQ 4% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 LIB 47% CAQ 24% CPQ 12% QS 7% PQ 4% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 LIB 48% CAQ 23% CPQ 12% QS 7% PQ 4% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 LIB 48% CAQ 23% CPQ 12% QS 7% PQ 4% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 LIB 47% CAQ 22% CPQ 11% QS 7% PQ 6% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 LIB 46% CAQ 22% CPQ 11% QS 8% PQ 6% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 LIB 47% CAQ 22% CPQ 11% QS 8% PQ 6% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 LIB 47% CAQ 22% CPQ 11% QS 8% PQ 6% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 LIB 47% CAQ 22% CPQ 11% QS 8% PQ 6% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 LIB 49% CAQ 24% CPQ 10% QS 7% PQ 5% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 LIB 50% CAQ 23% CPQ 9% QS 7% PQ 5% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 LIB 50% CAQ 22% CPQ 9% QS 7% PQ 7% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 LIB 51% CAQ 21% CPQ 9% QS 7% PQ 7% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 LIB 51% CAQ 22% CPQ 9% QS 7% PQ 7% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 LIB 52% CAQ 21% CPQ 8% QS 7% PQ 7% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 LIB 51% CAQ 21% CPQ 8% QS 7% PQ 7% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 LIB 51% CAQ 21% CPQ 8% PQ 7% QS 7% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 LIB 50% CAQ 14% CPQ 14% QS 10% PQ 6% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 LIB 50% CAQ 14% CPQ 13% QS 10% PQ 6% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 LIB 50% CAQ 14% CPQ 13% QS 10% PQ 6% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 LIB 52% CAQ 15% CPQ 12% QS 11% PQ 7% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 LIB 51% CAQ 15% QS 12% CPQ 12% PQ 7% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 LIB 52% CAQ 15% QS 11% CPQ 11% PQ 7% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 LIB 50% CAQ 16% QS 11% CPQ 11% PQ 8% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 LIB 50% CAQ 16% QS 11% CPQ 11% PQ 8% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 LIB 48% CAQ 16% CPQ 11% QS 11% PQ 8% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 LIB 51% CAQ 14% CPQ 13% QS 10% PQ 6% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 LIB 51% CAQ 14% CPQ 13% QS 10% PQ 6% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 LIB 52% CPQ 13% CAQ 13% QS 10% PQ 7% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB 53% CPQ 12% CAQ 12% QS 10% PQ 8% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 LIB 52% CPQ 12% QS 11% PQ 11% CAQ 11% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 LIB 48% QS 14% CPQ 14% PQ 12% CAQ 8% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 LIB 49% QS 13% CPQ 13% PQ 12% CAQ 9% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 48% QS 13% CPQ 13% PQ 12% CAQ 10% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 48% QS 14% PQ 13% CPQ 12% CAQ 9% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 51% PQ 13% CPQ 12% QS 12% CAQ 10% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 50% PQ 13% CPQ 12% QS 11% CAQ 9% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 51% PQ 14% CPQ 12% QS 12% CAQ 9% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 50% PQ 14% QS 12% CPQ 12% CAQ 9% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB 49% PQ 14% QS 13% CPQ 12% CAQ 9% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB 50% PQ 14% CPQ 12% QS 12% CAQ 9% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 50% PQ 16% QS 12% CPQ 11% CAQ 8% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB 51% PQ 16% QS 12% CPQ 11% CAQ 7% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB 51% PQ 15% QS 12% CPQ 11% CAQ 8% 2024-12-08

Odds of winning | Saint-Laurent

LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-12-08

Recent electoral history | Saint-Laurent



2014 2018 2022 Proj. LIB 82.3% 61.8% 50.0% 51% ± 9% CAQ 0.0% 15.2% 14.3% 8% ± 3% CPQ 1.1% 3.0% 13.9% 11% ± 5% QS 5.5% 8.6% 9.9% 12% ± 5% PQ 8.1% 6.6% 5.9% 15% ± 5% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.