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Quebec

Pontiac


MNA: André Fortin

Latest projection: November 15, 2024
Safe LIB hold
Pontiac 48% ± 9% LIB 18% ± 6%▲ PQ 12% ± 5%▼ CPQ 11% ± 4%▼ CAQ 8% ± 4% QS 2% ± 2% IND LIB 2022 43.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Pontiac >99% LIB <1% PQ <1% CPQ Odds of winning | November 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Pontiac

LIB 48% ± 9% PQ 18% ± 6% CAQ 11% ± 4% QS 8% ± 4% CPQ 12% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Pontiac 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 LIB 44% CAQ 31% CPQ 10% QS 10% PQ 3% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 LIB 43% CAQ 32% CPQ 10% QS 10% PQ 3% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 LIB 42% CAQ 30% CPQ 12% QS 10% PQ 3% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 LIB 42% CAQ 30% CPQ 12% QS 10% PQ 3% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 LIB 42% CAQ 30% CPQ 12% QS 10% PQ 3% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 LIB 44% CAQ 30% CPQ 12% QS 9% PQ 3% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 LIB 44% CAQ 30% CPQ 12% QS 9% PQ 3% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 LIB 44% CAQ 30% CPQ 12% QS 9% PQ 3% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 LIB 44% CAQ 30% CPQ 12% QS 9% PQ 3% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 LIB 44% CAQ 30% CPQ 12% QS 9% PQ 3% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 LIB 44% CAQ 30% CPQ 12% QS 9% PQ 3% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 LIB 44% CAQ 30% CPQ 12% QS 9% PQ 3% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 LIB 44% CAQ 30% CPQ 12% QS 9% PQ 4% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 LIB 44% CAQ 29% CPQ 14% QS 8% PQ 3% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 LIB 44% CAQ 29% CPQ 14% QS 8% PQ 3% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 LIB 43% CAQ 29% CPQ 15% QS 8% PQ 3% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 LIB 43% CAQ 29% CPQ 15% QS 8% PQ 3% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 LIB 43% CAQ 29% CPQ 15% QS 8% PQ 3% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 LIB 43% CAQ 29% CPQ 15% QS 8% PQ 3% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 LIB 43% CAQ 30% CPQ 13% QS 10% PQ 3% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 LIB 42% CAQ 30% CPQ 13% QS 10% PQ 3% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 LIB 42% CAQ 30% CPQ 13% QS 10% PQ 3% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 LIB 43% CAQ 30% CPQ 13% QS 9% PQ 3% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 LIB 43% CAQ 30% CPQ 13% QS 9% PQ 3% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 LIB 41% CAQ 29% CPQ 13% QS 9% PQ 6% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 LIB 38% CAQ 30% CPQ 14% QS 11% PQ 6% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 LIB 39% CAQ 30% CPQ 13% QS 10% PQ 6% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 LIB 39% CAQ 30% CPQ 13% QS 10% PQ 6% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 LIB 40% CAQ 30% CPQ 14% QS 10% PQ 5% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 LIB 41% CAQ 30% CPQ 14% QS 10% PQ 5% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 LIB 42% CAQ 25% CPQ 16% PQ 8% QS 8% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 LIB 42% CAQ 23% CPQ 16% PQ 10% QS 8% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 LIB 41% CAQ 24% CPQ 16% PQ 10% QS 8% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 LIB 41% CAQ 24% CPQ 16% PQ 10% QS 8% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 LIB 42% CAQ 24% CPQ 15% PQ 10% QS 8% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 LIB 42% CAQ 24% CPQ 15% PQ 10% QS 8% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 LIB 42% CAQ 24% CPQ 15% PQ 10% QS 8% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 LIB 44% CAQ 25% CPQ 11% QS 10% PQ 7% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 LIB 44% CAQ 25% QS 10% CPQ 10% PQ 8% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 LIB 44% CAQ 25% QS 10% CPQ 10% PQ 8% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 LIB 44% CAQ 25% QS 12% PQ 9% CPQ 8% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 LIB 42% CAQ 26% QS 13% PQ 9% CPQ 9% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 LIB 43% CAQ 23% PQ 13% QS 11% CPQ 8% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 LIB 42% CAQ 24% PQ 13% QS 11% CPQ 7% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 LIB 42% CAQ 24% PQ 13% QS 11% CPQ 7% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 LIB 40% CAQ 26% PQ 12% QS 11% CPQ 9% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 LIB 43% CAQ 23% CPQ 11% QS 10% PQ 10% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 LIB 43% CAQ 23% CPQ 11% QS 10% PQ 10% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 LIB 45% CAQ 16% PQ 16% QS 10% CPQ 10% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB 47% PQ 16% CAQ 15% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 LIB 45% PQ 21% CAQ 13% QS 11% CPQ 9% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 LIB 48% PQ 21% QS 11% CPQ 9% CAQ 9% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 LIB 48% PQ 21% QS 10% CAQ 10% CPQ 9% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 49% PQ 20% QS 10% CAQ 10% CPQ 9% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 49% PQ 21% QS 11% CAQ 9% CPQ 9% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 52% PQ 21% CAQ 9% QS 9% CPQ 9% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 51% PQ 20% CPQ 10% CAQ 8% QS 8% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 52% PQ 18% CAQ 10% CPQ 9% QS 8% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 52% PQ 16% CAQ 10% CPQ 10% QS 9% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB 51% PQ 16% CPQ 11% CAQ 10% QS 9% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB 48% PQ 16% CPQ 13% CAQ 12% QS 8% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 48% PQ 18% CPQ 12% CAQ 11% QS 8% 2024-11-15

Odds of winning | Pontiac

LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 LIB 97% CAQ 3% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 LIB 95% CAQ 5% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 LIB 96% CAQ 4% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 LIB 96% CAQ 4% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 LIB 96% CAQ 4% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 LIB 97% CAQ 3% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 LIB 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 LIB 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 LIB 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 LIB 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 LIB 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 LIB 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 LIB 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 LIB 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 LIB 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 LIB 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 LIB 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 LIB 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 LIB 97% CAQ 3% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 LIB 97% CAQ 3% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 LIB 96% CAQ 4% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 LIB 96% CAQ 4% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 LIB 96% CAQ 4% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 LIB 96% CAQ 4% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 LIB 96% CAQ 4% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 LIB 88% CAQ 12% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 LIB 90% CAQ 10% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 LIB 89% CAQ 11% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 LIB 93% CAQ 7% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 LIB 95% CAQ 5% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 LIB 99% CAQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 LIB >99% PQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-11-15

Recent electoral history | Pontiac



2014 2018 2022 Proj. LIB 75.8% 53.8% 43.7% 48% ± 9% CAQ 8.9% 20.4% 24.7% 11% ± 4% CPQ 0.0% 3.2% 10.9% 12% ± 5% QS 6.4% 10.7% 10.3% 8% ± 4% PQ 8.6% 5.5% 6.6% 18% ± 6% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.