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Quebec

Mille-Îles


MNA: Virginie Dufour (LIB)

Latest projection: June 17, 2024
Likely LIB hold
Mille-Îles 39% ± 8%▼ LIB 27% ± 7% PQ 13% ± 4% CAQ 9% ± 4% QS 9% ± 4% CPQ 2% ± 2% OTH LIB 2022 32.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Mille-Îles 98%▼ LIB 2%▲ PQ <1% CAQ Odds of winning | June 17, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Mille-Îles

LIB 39% ± 8% PQ 27% ± 7% CAQ 13% ± 4% QS 9% ± 4% CPQ 9% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Mille-Îles 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ June 17, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 38% LIB 32% QS 11% PQ 9% CPQ 8% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 39% LIB 31% QS 12% CPQ 9% PQ 8% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 38% LIB 30% QS 11% CPQ 11% PQ 7% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 38% LIB 30% QS 11% CPQ 11% PQ 7% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 38% LIB 30% QS 11% CPQ 11% PQ 7% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 37% LIB 31% QS 11% CPQ 11% PQ 7% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 37% LIB 31% QS 11% CPQ 11% PQ 7% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 37% LIB 31% QS 11% CPQ 11% PQ 7% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 37% LIB 31% QS 11% CPQ 11% PQ 7% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 37% LIB 31% QS 11% CPQ 11% PQ 8% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 37% LIB 31% QS 11% CPQ 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 37% LIB 31% QS 11% CPQ 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 37% LIB 31% QS 11% CPQ 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 36% LIB 31% CPQ 11% QS 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 36% LIB 31% CPQ 12% QS 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 36% LIB 31% CPQ 12% QS 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 36% LIB 31% CPQ 12% QS 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 37% LIB 31% CPQ 12% QS 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 37% LIB 30% CPQ 12% QS 10% PQ 8% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 35% LIB 31% CPQ 11% QS 11% PQ 8% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 36% LIB 31% QS 11% CPQ 11% PQ 8% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 36% LIB 30% CPQ 11% QS 11% PQ 8% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 36% LIB 31% CPQ 11% QS 11% PQ 8% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 36% LIB 31% CPQ 11% QS 11% PQ 8% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 35% LIB 30% CPQ 11% QS 11% PQ 11% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 36% LIB 26% QS 12% CPQ 12% PQ 11% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 36% LIB 26% QS 12% CPQ 11% PQ 11% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 36% LIB 27% QS 12% CPQ 11% PQ 11% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 36% LIB 27% QS 12% CPQ 12% PQ 11% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 38% LIB 27% CPQ 12% QS 12% PQ 10% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 37% LIB 28% CPQ 12% QS 11% PQ 10% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 35% LIB 28% PQ 12% QS 12% CPQ 12% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 36% LIB 28% PQ 12% QS 12% CPQ 12% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 36% LIB 28% PQ 12% QS 12% CPQ 12% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 36% LIB 28% PQ 12% QS 12% CPQ 11% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 36% LIB 28% PQ 12% QS 12% CPQ 11% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 36% LIB 28% PQ 13% QS 12% CPQ 11% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 LIB 32% CAQ 31% QS 13% PQ 12% CPQ 11% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 LIB 32% CAQ 31% PQ 14% QS 13% CPQ 9% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 LIB 32% CAQ 31% PQ 14% QS 13% CPQ 9% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 LIB 32% CAQ 31% PQ 15% QS 14% CPQ 8% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 LIB 31% CAQ 31% PQ 15% QS 14% CPQ 8% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 LIB 33% CAQ 30% PQ 15% QS 14% CPQ 7% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 LIB 32% CAQ 31% PQ 16% QS 13% CPQ 7% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 LIB 32% CAQ 31% PQ 16% QS 13% CPQ 7% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 LIB 30% CAQ 29% PQ 18% QS 13% CPQ 9% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 LIB 33% CAQ 26% PQ 15% QS 12% CPQ 11% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 LIB 33% CAQ 26% PQ 15% QS 12% CPQ 11% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 LIB 34% CAQ 25% PQ 16% QS 12% CPQ 11% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB 35% PQ 22% CAQ 20% QS 12% CPQ 10% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 LIB 34% PQ 23% CAQ 19% QS 13% CPQ 10% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 LIB 37% PQ 25% CAQ 14% QS 12% CPQ 10% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 LIB 37% PQ 24% CAQ 16% QS 11% CPQ 10% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 37% PQ 27% CAQ 14% QS 11% CPQ 10% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 37% PQ 28% CAQ 13% QS 11% CPQ 9% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 40% PQ 28% CAQ 12% QS 10% CPQ 9% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 40% PQ 27% CAQ 12% CPQ 9% QS 9% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 40% PQ 27% CAQ 13% QS 9% CPQ 9% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 39% PQ 27% CAQ 13% QS 9% CPQ 9% 2024-06-17

Odds of winning | Mille-Îles

LIB 98% PQ 2% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS June 17, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 81% LIB 19% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 88% LIB 12% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 86% LIB 14% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 85% LIB 15% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 85% LIB 15% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 83% LIB 17% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 80% LIB 20% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 79% LIB 21% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 80% LIB 20% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 80% LIB 20% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 80% LIB 20% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 80% LIB 20% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 79% LIB 21% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 79% LIB 21% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 79% LIB 21% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 81% LIB 19% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 80% LIB 20% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 82% LIB 18% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 83% LIB 17% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 76% LIB 24% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 79% LIB 21% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 81% LIB 19% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 79% LIB 21% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 79% LIB 21% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 79% LIB 21% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 95% LIB 5% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 93% LIB 7% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 94% LIB 6% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 92% LIB 8% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 94% LIB 6% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 93% LIB 7% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 88% LIB 12% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 91% LIB 9% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 92% LIB 8% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 91% LIB 9% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 90% LIB 10% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 90% LIB 10% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 LIB 65% CAQ 35% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 LIB 58% CAQ 42% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 LIB 58% CAQ 42% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 LIB 60% CAQ 40% PQ <1% QS <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 LIB 56% CAQ 44% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 LIB 73% CAQ 27% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 LIB 57% CAQ 43% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 LIB 57% CAQ 43% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 LIB 59% CAQ 41% PQ <1% QS <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 LIB 91% CAQ 9% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 LIB 91% CAQ 9% QS <1% PQ <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 LIB 94% CAQ 6% PQ <1% QS <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB 99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 LIB 99% PQ 1% CAQ <1% QS <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 LIB 99% PQ 1% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 LIB 99% PQ 1% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 97% PQ 3% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 93% PQ 7% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 96% PQ 4% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 98% PQ 2% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 99% PQ 1% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 98% PQ 2% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2024-06-17

Recent electoral history | Mille-Îles



2014 2018 2022 Proj. LIB 50.5% 35.8% 32.4% 39% ± 8% CAQ 17.6% 31.7% 30.9% 13% ± 4% QS 4.7% 12.8% 12.9% 9% ± 4% PQ 25.5% 15.1% 12.1% 27% ± 7% CPQ 0.3% 0.0% 10.6% 9% ± 4% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.