logo
Quebec

Laporte


MNA: Isabelle Poulet (CAQ)

Latest projection: October 5, 2025
Safe LIB

Recent electoral history | Laporte


2014 2018 2022 Proj. LIB 49% ± 8% 49.0% 35.6% 28.8% PQ 25% ± 6% 20.8% 13.2% 12.2% CAQ 10% ± 4% 17.0% 28.6% 30.8% CPQ 7% ± 3% 0.5% 1.4% 7.4% QS 6% ± 3% 7.2% 17.1% 17.7%




338Canada projection for Laporte


Laporte 49% ± 8% LIB 25% ± 6%▼ PQ 10% ± 4% CAQ 7% ± 3%▲ CPQ 6% ± 3%▼ QS CAQ 2022 30.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 5, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Laporte >99% LIB <1% PQ <1% CAQ Odds of winning | October 5, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Laporte

LIB 49% ± 8% PQ 25% ± 6% CAQ 10% ± 4% QS 6% ± 3% CPQ 7% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Laporte 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-04-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ October 5, 2025 2024-02-18 LIB 31% PQ 24% CAQ 21% QS 15% CPQ 7% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 31% PQ 25% CAQ 19% QS 16% CPQ 7% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 31% PQ 27% CAQ 18% QS 16% CPQ 6% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 33% PQ 28% CAQ 18% QS 14% CPQ 6% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 32% PQ 27% CAQ 18% QS 13% CPQ 7% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 32% PQ 26% CAQ 20% QS 13% CPQ 6% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 31% PQ 27% CAQ 20% QS 13% CPQ 6% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB 31% PQ 24% CAQ 21% QS 15% CPQ 7% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB 31% PQ 26% CAQ 20% QS 14% CPQ 7% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 31% PQ 28% CAQ 18% QS 14% CPQ 6% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB 32% PQ 28% CAQ 17% QS 13% CPQ 6% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB 32% PQ 27% CAQ 18% QS 13% CPQ 6% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 LIB 36% PQ 24% CAQ 19% QS 11% CPQ 7% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 LIB 37% PQ 24% CAQ 18% QS 10% CPQ 7% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 LIB 37% PQ 23% CAQ 20% QS 10% CPQ 7% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 LIB 35% PQ 24% CAQ 20% QS 11% CPQ 7% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 LIB 37% PQ 23% CAQ 19% QS 10% CPQ 7% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 LIB 44% PQ 22% CAQ 14% QS 11% CPQ 7% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 LIB 47% PQ 20% CAQ 13% QS 10% CPQ 7% 2025-06-27 2025-08-13 LIB 47% PQ 21% CAQ 13% QS 9% CPQ 7% 2025-08-13 2025-08-22 LIB 47% PQ 23% CAQ 13% QS 8% CPQ 6% 2025-08-22 2025-09-10 LIB 49% PQ 25% CAQ 9% QS 7% CPQ 6% 2025-09-10 2025-09-19 LIB 49% PQ 26% CAQ 10% QS 7% CPQ 6% 2025-09-19 2025-10-05 LIB 49% PQ 25% CAQ 10% CPQ 7% QS 6% 2025-10-05 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader

Odds of winning | Laporte

LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% CPQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 2025-10-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-04-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ October 5, 2025 2024-02-18 LIB 92% PQ 7% CAQ 1% CPQ <1% QS <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 88% PQ 12% CAQ <1% QS <1% CPQ <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 80% PQ 20% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 81% PQ 19% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 84% PQ 16% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 86% PQ 14% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 79% PQ 21% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB 93% PQ 6% CAQ 1% CPQ <1% QS <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB 87% PQ 13% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 78% PQ 22% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB 73% PQ 27% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB 80% PQ 20% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 LIB 99% PQ 1% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 LIB 99% PQ 1% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 LIB 99% PQ 1% CAQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 LIB >99% PQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2025-06-27 2025-08-13 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2025-08-13 2025-08-22 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2025-08-22 2025-09-10 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2025-09-10 2025-09-19 LIB >99% PQ <1% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% 2025-09-19 2025-10-05 LIB >99% CPQ <1% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2025-10-05 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader
>99% <1% 34% ± 6% 66% ± 6% Projection of support for souvereignty | Laporte YES NO 338Canada October 5, 2025