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Quebec

Papineau


MNA: Mathieu Lacombe (CAQ)

Latest projection: April 26, 2024
Likely CAQ hold
Papineau 32% ± 7% CAQ 25% ± 6%▼ PQ 16% ± 5%▲ LIB 14% ± 4%▼ QS 11% ± 4% QCP CAQ 2022 52.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | April 26, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Papineau 95%▲ CAQ 5%▼ PQ <1% LIB Odds of winning | April 26, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Papineau

LIB 16% ± 5% PQ 25% ± 6% CAQ 32% ± 7% QS 14% ± 4% QCP 11% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Papineau 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP April 26, 2024

Odds of winning | Papineau

LIB <1% PQ 5% CAQ 95% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS April 26, 2024

Recent electoral history | Papineau



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 16.1% 46.9% 52.8% 32% ± 7% QS 6.7% 15.0% 13.8% 14% ± 4% QCP 0.0% 1.3% 13.3% 11% ± 4% PQ 24.7% 10.6% 10.2% 25% ± 6% LIB 50.4% 23.1% 8.4% 16% ± 5% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0% ± 0%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.