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Quebec

Papineau


MNA: Mathieu Lacombe

Latest projection: November 15, 2024
Likely CAQ hold
Papineau 30% ± 6%▼ CAQ 23% ± 5%▲ PQ 21% ± 6%▲ LIB 13% ± 4% QS 12% ± 4% CPQ CAQ 2022 52.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Papineau 93%▼ CAQ 5%▲ PQ 2%▲ LIB Odds of winning | November 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Papineau

LIB 21% ± 6% PQ 23% ± 5% CAQ 30% ± 6% QS 13% ± 4% CPQ 12% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Papineau 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 53% LIB 16% QS 13% CPQ 10% PQ 6% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 53% LIB 16% QS 13% CPQ 10% PQ 5% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 52% LIB 15% QS 13% CPQ 12% PQ 5% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 52% LIB 15% QS 13% CPQ 12% PQ 5% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 52% LIB 15% QS 13% CPQ 12% PQ 5% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 52% LIB 16% QS 13% CPQ 12% PQ 5% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 51% LIB 16% QS 13% CPQ 13% PQ 5% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 51% LIB 16% QS 13% CPQ 13% PQ 5% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 51% LIB 16% QS 13% CPQ 13% PQ 5% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 51% LIB 16% QS 13% CPQ 13% PQ 6% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 51% LIB 16% QS 13% CPQ 12% PQ 6% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 51% LIB 16% QS 13% CPQ 12% PQ 6% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 51% LIB 16% QS 12% CPQ 12% PQ 6% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 50% LIB 16% CPQ 15% QS 11% PQ 6% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 50% LIB 16% CPQ 15% QS 11% PQ 6% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 50% LIB 15% CPQ 15% QS 11% PQ 6% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 50% LIB 15% CPQ 15% QS 11% PQ 6% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 50% LIB 15% CPQ 15% QS 11% PQ 6% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 51% LIB 15% CPQ 15% QS 11% PQ 5% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 49% LIB 15% CPQ 14% QS 13% PQ 6% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 49% LIB 15% CPQ 14% QS 13% PQ 6% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 50% LIB 15% CPQ 14% QS 13% PQ 6% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 50% LIB 15% CPQ 14% QS 13% PQ 5% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 50% LIB 15% CPQ 14% QS 13% PQ 5% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 48% LIB 15% CPQ 15% QS 12% PQ 8% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 48% CPQ 15% QS 14% LIB 13% PQ 8% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 48% CPQ 15% QS 14% LIB 13% PQ 8% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 48% CPQ 14% QS 14% LIB 13% PQ 8% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 48% CPQ 15% LIB 14% QS 13% PQ 8% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 50% CPQ 15% LIB 14% QS 13% PQ 7% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 50% CPQ 15% LIB 14% QS 13% PQ 7% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 48% CPQ 14% LIB 14% QS 13% PQ 9% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 49% CPQ 14% LIB 14% QS 13% PQ 9% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 49% CPQ 14% LIB 14% QS 13% PQ 9% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 49% LIB 14% CPQ 14% QS 13% PQ 9% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 49% LIB 14% CPQ 14% QS 13% PQ 9% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 49% LIB 14% CPQ 14% QS 13% PQ 9% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 53% QS 14% CPQ 13% PQ 10% LIB 8% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 53% QS 14% CPQ 12% PQ 12% LIB 8% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 53% QS 14% CPQ 12% PQ 12% LIB 8% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 52% QS 16% PQ 13% CPQ 10% LIB 8% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 52% QS 16% PQ 13% CPQ 10% LIB 8% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 48% PQ 19% QS 15% CPQ 9% LIB 9% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 49% PQ 20% QS 15% CPQ 9% LIB 8% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 49% PQ 20% QS 15% CPQ 9% LIB 8% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 51% PQ 17% QS 14% CPQ 9% LIB 7% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 46% PQ 16% QS 15% CPQ 12% LIB 8% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 46% PQ 16% QS 15% CPQ 12% LIB 8% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 38% PQ 23% QS 15% CPQ 11% LIB 10% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 35% PQ 24% QS 17% CPQ 11% LIB 11% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CAQ 34% PQ 26% QS 17% CPQ 11% LIB 10% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 CAQ 31% PQ 26% QS 18% LIB 12% CPQ 11% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 32% PQ 27% QS 16% LIB 11% CPQ 11% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 34% PQ 25% QS 16% LIB 12% CPQ 12% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CAQ 32% PQ 27% QS 17% LIB 12% CPQ 11% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 32% PQ 25% LIB 16% QS 14% CPQ 11% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 32% PQ 24% LIB 18% QS 13% CPQ 12% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ 33% PQ 22% LIB 18% QS 14% CPQ 11% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 33% PQ 22% LIB 18% QS 14% CPQ 12% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ 33% PQ 21% LIB 17% QS 15% CPQ 12% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ 32% PQ 20% LIB 20% QS 13% CPQ 12% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CAQ 30% PQ 23% LIB 21% QS 13% CPQ 12% 2024-11-15

Odds of winning | Papineau

LIB 2% PQ 5% CAQ 93% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ >99% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ >99% PQ <1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 99% PQ 1% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CAQ 94% PQ 6% QS <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 CAQ 81% PQ 19% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CAQ 86% PQ 14% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CAQ 96% PQ 4% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CAQ 82% PQ 18% QS <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CAQ 95% PQ 5% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CAQ 96% PQ 4% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CAQ 99% PQ 1% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CAQ >99% PQ <1% LIB <1% QS <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CAQ >99% LIB <1% PQ <1% QS <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CAQ 93% PQ 5% LIB 2% QS <1% 2024-11-15

Recent electoral history | Papineau



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 16.1% 46.9% 52.8% 30% ± 6% QS 6.7% 15.0% 13.8% 13% ± 4% CPQ 0.0% 1.3% 13.3% 12% ± 4% PQ 24.7% 10.6% 10.2% 23% ± 5% LIB 50.4% 23.1% 8.4% 21% ± 6% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.