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Quebec

D’Arcy-McGee


MNA: Elisabeth Prass

Latest projection: November 15, 2024
Safe LIB hold
D’Arcy-McGee 54% ± 9%▲ LIB 22% ± 7%▼ CPQ 10% ± 4% QS 9% ± 4%▲ PQ 3% ± 2%▼ CAQ 2% ± 2% IND LIB 2022 51.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% D’Arcy-McGee >99% LIB <1% CPQ <1% QS Odds of winning | November 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | D’Arcy-McGee

LIB 54% ± 9% PQ 9% ± 4% QS 10% ± 4% CPQ 22% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | D’Arcy-McGee 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ QS CPQ November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 LIB 59% QS 12% CPQ 9% PQ 2% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 LIB 58% QS 11% CPQ 10% PQ 2% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 LIB 57% CPQ 11% QS 11% PQ 2% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 LIB 57% CPQ 11% QS 11% PQ 2% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 LIB 57% CPQ 11% QS 11% PQ 2% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 LIB 58% CPQ 11% QS 11% PQ 2% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 LIB 58% CPQ 11% QS 11% PQ 2% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 LIB 58% CPQ 11% QS 11% PQ 2% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 LIB 58% CPQ 11% QS 11% PQ 2% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 LIB 58% CPQ 11% QS 11% PQ 2% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 LIB 59% QS 11% CPQ 10% PQ 2% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 LIB 59% QS 11% CPQ 10% PQ 2% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 LIB 59% QS 10% CPQ 10% PQ 3% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 LIB 58% CPQ 11% QS 9% PQ 2% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 LIB 58% CPQ 11% QS 9% PQ 2% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 LIB 58% CPQ 12% QS 9% PQ 2% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 LIB 58% CPQ 12% QS 9% PQ 2% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 LIB 58% CPQ 12% QS 9% PQ 2% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 LIB 53% CPQ 12% QS 9% PQ 2% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 LIB 53% CPQ 11% QS 11% PQ 2% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 LIB 53% CPQ 11% QS 11% PQ 2% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 LIB 53% CPQ 11% QS 11% PQ 2% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 LIB 53% CPQ 11% QS 10% PQ 2% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 LIB 53% CPQ 11% QS 10% PQ 2% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 LIB 52% CPQ 11% QS 10% PQ 5% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 LIB 52% CPQ 11% QS 10% PQ 5% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 LIB 49% CPQ 13% QS 10% PQ 3% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 LIB 49% CPQ 13% QS 10% PQ 3% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 LIB 49% CPQ 13% QS 10% PQ 3% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 LIB 49% CPQ 13% QS 10% PQ 3% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 LIB 50% CPQ 13% QS 9% PQ 3% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 LIB 51% CPQ 13% QS 10% PQ 3% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 LIB 51% CPQ 13% QS 10% PQ 3% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 LIB 51% CPQ 12% QS 10% PQ 3% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 LIB 51% CPQ 12% QS 10% PQ 3% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 LIB 51% CPQ 12% QS 10% PQ 3% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 LIB 51% CPQ 12% QS 10% PQ 3% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 LIB 51% CPQ 22% QS 9% PQ 3% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 LIB 52% CPQ 21% QS 9% PQ 3% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 LIB 52% CPQ 21% QS 9% PQ 3% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 LIB 55% CPQ 19% QS 10% PQ 3% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 LIB 55% CPQ 19% QS 10% PQ 3% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 LIB 55% CPQ 19% QS 10% PQ 3% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 LIB 53% CPQ 19% QS 10% PQ 3% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 LIB 54% CPQ 19% QS 10% PQ 3% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 LIB 50% CPQ 22% QS 10% PQ 3% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 LIB 53% CPQ 22% QS 9% PQ 3% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 LIB 53% CPQ 22% QS 9% PQ 3% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 LIB 53% CPQ 22% QS 9% PQ 3% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB 54% CPQ 21% QS 9% PQ 3% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 LIB 54% CPQ 21% QS 10% PQ 6% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 LIB 49% CPQ 22% QS 12% PQ 6% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 LIB 50% CPQ 21% QS 12% PQ 7% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 49% CPQ 22% QS 12% PQ 7% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 50% CPQ 20% QS 13% PQ 7% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 56% CPQ 20% QS 11% PQ 7% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 55% CPQ 19% QS 9% PQ 7% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 56% CPQ 18% QS 10% PQ 8% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 55% CPQ 19% QS 10% PQ 8% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB 53% CPQ 22% QS 11% PQ 7% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB 52% CPQ 24% QS 10% PQ 7% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 54% CPQ 22% QS 10% PQ 9% 2024-11-15

Odds of winning | D’Arcy-McGee

LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-11-15

Recent electoral history | D’Arcy-McGee



2014 2018 2022 Proj. LIB 89.5% 74.4% 51.4% 54% ± 9% CPQ 0.2% 4.5% 21.9% 22% ± 7% QS 3.2% 7.2% 8.5% 10% ± 4% CAQ 2.9% 6.4% 5.9% 3% ± 2% PQ 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 9% ± 4% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.