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Quebec

LaFontaine


MNA: Marc Tanguay (LIB)

Latest projection: April 26, 2024
Safe LIB hold
LaFontaine 49% ± 9%▲ LIB 17% ± 6% PQ 12% ± 5% QCP 11% ± 4%▼ CAQ 10% ± 4%▼ QS LIB 2022 51.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | April 26, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% LaFontaine >99% LIB <1% PQ <1% QCP Odds of winning | April 26, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | LaFontaine

LIB 49% ± 9% PQ 17% ± 6% CAQ 11% ± 4% QS 10% ± 4% QCP 12% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | LaFontaine 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP April 26, 2024

Odds of winning | LaFontaine

LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS April 26, 2024

Recent electoral history | LaFontaine



2014 2018 2022 Proj. LIB 73.3% 58.8% 51.7% 49% ± 9% CAQ 10.8% 21.9% 20.0% 11% ± 4% QCP 0.0% 1.8% 13.1% 12% ± 5% QS 3.9% 8.8% 8.9% 10% ± 4% PQ 10.8% 8.4% 5.1% 17% ± 6% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.