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Quebec

LaFontaine


MNA: Marc Tanguay

Latest projection: December 8, 2024
Safe LIB hold
LaFontaine 48% ± 9% LIB 18% ± 6%▼ PQ 13% ± 5% CPQ 10% ± 4% QS 9% ± 4%▲ CAQ 2% ± 2% IND LIB 2022 51.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 8, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% LaFontaine >99% LIB <1% PQ <1% CPQ Odds of winning | December 8, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | LaFontaine

LIB 48% ± 9% PQ 18% ± 6% CAQ 9% ± 4% QS 10% ± 4% CPQ 13% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | LaFontaine 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 LIB 45% CAQ 33% CPQ 8% QS 8% PQ 5% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 LIB 44% CAQ 33% CPQ 9% QS 8% PQ 4% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 LIB 44% CAQ 32% CPQ 11% QS 7% PQ 4% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 LIB 44% CAQ 32% CPQ 11% QS 7% PQ 4% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 LIB 44% CAQ 32% CPQ 11% QS 7% PQ 4% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 LIB 45% CAQ 32% CPQ 11% QS 7% PQ 4% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 LIB 45% CAQ 32% CPQ 11% QS 7% PQ 4% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 LIB 45% CAQ 32% CPQ 11% QS 7% PQ 4% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 LIB 45% CAQ 32% CPQ 11% QS 7% PQ 4% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 LIB 45% CAQ 31% CPQ 11% QS 7% PQ 4% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 LIB 45% CAQ 31% CPQ 10% QS 7% PQ 5% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 LIB 45% CAQ 31% CPQ 10% QS 7% PQ 4% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 LIB 45% CAQ 31% CPQ 10% QS 7% PQ 5% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 LIB 45% CAQ 31% CPQ 12% QS 6% PQ 5% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 LIB 45% CAQ 31% CPQ 12% QS 6% PQ 5% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 LIB 45% CAQ 31% CPQ 12% QS 6% PQ 5% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 LIB 45% CAQ 31% CPQ 12% QS 6% PQ 5% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 LIB 44% CAQ 31% CPQ 12% QS 6% PQ 5% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 LIB 44% CAQ 32% CPQ 12% QS 6% PQ 4% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 LIB 45% CAQ 30% CPQ 12% QS 8% PQ 5% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 LIB 45% CAQ 30% CPQ 12% QS 8% PQ 5% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 LIB 45% CAQ 30% CPQ 12% QS 8% PQ 5% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 LIB 45% CAQ 30% CPQ 12% QS 7% PQ 4% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 LIB 45% CAQ 30% CPQ 12% QS 7% PQ 4% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 LIB 44% CAQ 29% CPQ 12% QS 7% PQ 7% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 LIB 44% CAQ 29% CPQ 11% QS 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 LIB 44% CAQ 29% CPQ 11% QS 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 LIB 44% CAQ 29% CPQ 11% QS 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 LIB 45% CAQ 28% CPQ 11% QS 8% PQ 7% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 LIB 46% CAQ 29% CPQ 11% QS 8% PQ 6% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 LIB 47% CAQ 29% CPQ 11% QS 7% PQ 6% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 LIB 47% CAQ 27% CPQ 11% PQ 8% QS 8% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 LIB 47% CAQ 27% CPQ 11% PQ 8% QS 8% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 LIB 47% CAQ 27% CPQ 11% PQ 8% QS 8% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 LIB 48% CAQ 26% CPQ 10% PQ 8% QS 8% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 LIB 48% CAQ 26% CPQ 10% PQ 8% QS 7% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 LIB 47% CAQ 26% CPQ 10% PQ 8% QS 7% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 LIB 52% CAQ 20% CPQ 13% QS 9% PQ 5% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 LIB 52% CAQ 20% CPQ 13% QS 9% PQ 5% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 LIB 52% CAQ 20% CPQ 13% QS 9% PQ 5% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 LIB 52% CAQ 20% CPQ 11% QS 10% PQ 6% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 LIB 52% CAQ 21% CPQ 11% QS 10% PQ 6% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 LIB 52% CAQ 21% CPQ 10% QS 10% PQ 6% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 LIB 50% CAQ 22% CPQ 10% QS 10% PQ 7% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 LIB 51% CAQ 22% CPQ 10% QS 10% PQ 7% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 LIB 47% CAQ 23% CPQ 11% QS 10% PQ 7% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 LIB 50% CAQ 20% CPQ 13% QS 9% PQ 6% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 LIB 50% CAQ 20% CPQ 13% QS 9% PQ 6% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 LIB 50% CAQ 20% CPQ 13% QS 9% PQ 6% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB 51% CAQ 19% CPQ 12% QS 8% PQ 7% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 LIB 49% PQ 14% CAQ 13% CPQ 12% QS 10% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 LIB 45% PQ 16% CPQ 14% QS 12% CAQ 11% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 LIB 46% PQ 16% CPQ 13% CAQ 12% QS 11% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 45% PQ 16% CPQ 13% CAQ 12% QS 12% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 45% PQ 17% QS 12% CAQ 12% CPQ 12% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 49% PQ 17% CPQ 12% CAQ 11% QS 10% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 49% PQ 17% CPQ 12% CAQ 10% QS 9% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 49% PQ 17% CPQ 11% CAQ 11% QS 10% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 48% PQ 18% CPQ 11% CAQ 10% QS 10% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB 47% PQ 17% CPQ 13% QS 11% CAQ 10% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB 47% PQ 17% CPQ 14% QS 10% CAQ 10% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 48% PQ 19% CPQ 12% QS 10% CAQ 9% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB 48% PQ 19% CPQ 13% QS 10% CAQ 8% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB 48% PQ 18% CPQ 13% QS 10% CAQ 9% 2024-12-08

Odds of winning | LaFontaine

LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 LIB 94% CAQ 6% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 LIB 92% CAQ 8% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 LIB 93% CAQ 7% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 LIB 93% CAQ 7% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 LIB 93% CAQ 7% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 LIB 95% CAQ 5% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 LIB 97% CAQ 3% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 LIB 97% CAQ 3% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 LIB 97% CAQ 3% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 LIB 97% CAQ 3% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 LIB 97% CAQ 3% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 LIB 97% CAQ 3% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 LIB 97% CAQ 3% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 LIB 97% CAQ 3% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 LIB 97% CAQ 3% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 LIB 96% CAQ 4% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 LIB 97% CAQ 3% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 LIB 96% CAQ 4% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 LIB 96% CAQ 4% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 LIB 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 LIB 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 LIB 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 LIB 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 LIB 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 LIB 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 LIB 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 LIB 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 LIB 98% CAQ 2% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 LIB 99% CAQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 LIB 99% CAQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 LIB 99% CAQ 1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 LIB >99% CAQ <1% QS <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB >99% QS <1% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2024-12-08

Recent electoral history | LaFontaine



2014 2018 2022 Proj. LIB 73.3% 58.8% 51.7% 48% ± 9% CAQ 10.8% 21.9% 20.0% 9% ± 4% CPQ 0.0% 1.8% 13.1% 13% ± 5% QS 3.9% 8.8% 8.9% 10% ± 4% PQ 10.8% 8.4% 5.1% 18% ± 6% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.