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Quebec

Viau


MNA: Frantz Benjamin

Latest projection: December 8, 2024
Leaning LIB hold
Viau 34% ± 9%▲ LIB 27% ± 8% QS 22% ± 7%▼ PQ 9% ± 4% CPQ 6% ± 3% CAQ 2% ± 2% IND LIB 2022 38.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 8, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Viau 87%▲ LIB 12%▼ QS 1%▼ PQ Odds of winning | December 8, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Viau

LIB 34% ± 9% PQ 22% ± 7% CAQ 6% ± 3% QS 27% ± 8% CPQ 9% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Viau 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 LIB 34% QS 26% CAQ 26% CPQ 8% PQ 5% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 LIB 33% QS 26% CAQ 26% CPQ 9% PQ 4% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 LIB 33% QS 26% CAQ 25% CPQ 10% PQ 4% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 LIB 33% QS 26% CAQ 25% CPQ 10% PQ 4% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 LIB 33% QS 25% CAQ 25% CPQ 10% PQ 4% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 LIB 33% QS 25% CAQ 25% CPQ 10% PQ 4% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 LIB 33% QS 25% CAQ 25% CPQ 10% PQ 4% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 LIB 34% QS 25% CAQ 25% CPQ 10% PQ 4% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 LIB 34% QS 25% CAQ 25% CPQ 10% PQ 4% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 LIB 34% QS 25% CAQ 24% CPQ 10% PQ 5% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 LIB 33% QS 26% CAQ 24% CPQ 10% PQ 4% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 LIB 33% QS 27% CAQ 25% CPQ 8% PQ 5% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 LIB 33% QS 26% CAQ 25% CPQ 8% PQ 5% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 LIB 33% QS 25% CAQ 25% CPQ 10% PQ 5% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 LIB 34% QS 25% CAQ 25% CPQ 10% PQ 5% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 LIB 33% QS 25% CAQ 25% CPQ 10% PQ 5% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 LIB 33% QS 25% CAQ 25% CPQ 10% PQ 5% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 LIB 33% CAQ 25% QS 25% CPQ 10% PQ 5% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 LIB 30% CAQ 24% QS 24% CPQ 10% PQ 4% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 LIB 29% QS 27% CAQ 22% CPQ 9% PQ 5% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 LIB 29% QS 27% CAQ 23% CPQ 9% PQ 4% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 LIB 29% QS 27% CAQ 23% CPQ 9% PQ 4% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 LIB 31% QS 27% CAQ 21% CPQ 9% PQ 4% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 LIB 31% QS 26% CAQ 21% CPQ 9% PQ 4% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 LIB 30% QS 27% CAQ 20% CPQ 9% PQ 7% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 LIB 30% QS 27% CAQ 20% CPQ 9% PQ 7% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 LIB 30% QS 28% CAQ 19% CPQ 9% PQ 7% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 LIB 30% QS 28% CAQ 19% CPQ 9% PQ 7% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 LIB 31% QS 28% CAQ 19% CPQ 9% PQ 7% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 LIB 32% QS 28% CAQ 21% CPQ 8% PQ 6% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 LIB 33% QS 27% CAQ 21% CPQ 7% PQ 6% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 LIB 33% QS 28% CAQ 19% PQ 8% CPQ 7% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 LIB 34% QS 28% CAQ 18% PQ 8% CPQ 6% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 LIB 35% QS 28% CAQ 18% PQ 8% CPQ 6% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 LIB 36% QS 27% CAQ 18% PQ 8% CPQ 5% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 LIB 36% QS 27% CAQ 18% PQ 8% CPQ 6% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 LIB 36% QS 27% CAQ 17% PQ 8% CPQ 5% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 LIB 38% QS 30% CAQ 15% PQ 8% CPQ 6% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 LIB 38% QS 30% CAQ 15% PQ 8% CPQ 6% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 LIB 38% QS 30% CAQ 15% PQ 8% CPQ 6% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 LIB 37% QS 33% CAQ 15% PQ 9% CPQ 5% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 QS 35% LIB 34% CAQ 16% PQ 9% CPQ 5% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 QS 35% LIB 34% CAQ 16% PQ 9% CPQ 4% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 QS 35% LIB 33% CAQ 17% PQ 10% CPQ 4% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 QS 35% LIB 33% CAQ 17% PQ 10% CPQ 4% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 QS 34% LIB 31% CAQ 17% PQ 10% CPQ 6% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 LIB 33% QS 33% CAQ 16% PQ 9% CPQ 7% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 LIB 33% QS 33% CAQ 16% PQ 9% CPQ 7% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 LIB 34% QS 32% CAQ 16% PQ 10% CPQ 6% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB 34% QS 31% CAQ 15% PQ 11% CPQ 6% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 QS 33% LIB 31% PQ 20% CAQ 10% CPQ 5% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 QS 38% LIB 26% PQ 20% CAQ 8% CPQ 6% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 QS 36% LIB 26% PQ 21% CAQ 9% CPQ 5% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS 36% LIB 26% PQ 21% CAQ 9% CPQ 5% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS 37% LIB 26% PQ 22% CAQ 9% CPQ 5% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 34% QS 30% PQ 22% CAQ 8% CPQ 5% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 35% QS 27% PQ 21% CAQ 8% CPQ 5% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 35% QS 28% PQ 21% CAQ 8% CPQ 5% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 34% QS 29% PQ 22% CAQ 8% CPQ 5% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB 32% QS 30% PQ 21% CAQ 7% CPQ 7% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB 33% QS 27% PQ 21% CPQ 9% CAQ 7% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 33% QS 27% PQ 23% CPQ 8% CAQ 6% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB 33% QS 27% PQ 23% CPQ 9% CAQ 6% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB 34% QS 27% PQ 22% CPQ 9% CAQ 6% 2024-12-08

Odds of winning | Viau

LIB 87% PQ 1% CAQ <1% QS 12% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS December 8, 2024 2022-08-25 LIB 84% QS 10% CAQ 6% PQ <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 LIB 80% QS 11% CAQ 9% PQ <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 LIB 83% QS 10% CAQ 7% PQ <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 LIB 83% QS 9% CAQ 8% PQ <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 LIB 83% QS 9% CAQ 8% PQ <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 LIB 85% QS 8% CAQ 7% PQ <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 LIB 87% QS 8% CAQ 5% PQ <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 LIB 88% QS 7% CAQ 5% PQ <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 LIB 90% QS 6% CAQ 4% PQ <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 LIB 90% QS 5% CAQ 4% PQ <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 LIB 83% QS 12% CAQ 5% PQ <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 LIB 83% QS 12% CAQ 4% PQ <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 LIB 85% QS 11% CAQ 5% PQ <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 LIB 88% QS 6% CAQ 5% PQ <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 LIB 88% QS 7% CAQ 5% PQ <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 LIB 87% QS 7% CAQ 6% PQ <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 LIB 88% QS 6% CAQ 6% PQ <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 LIB 87% CAQ 7% QS 7% PQ <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 LIB 77% CAQ 13% QS 10% PQ <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 LIB 65% QS 31% CAQ 3% PQ <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 LIB 65% QS 31% CAQ 5% PQ <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 LIB 64% QS 31% CAQ 5% PQ <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 LIB 76% QS 23% CAQ 1% PQ <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 LIB 77% QS 22% CAQ 1% PQ <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 LIB 68% QS 32% CAQ 1% PQ <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 LIB 66% QS 33% CAQ 1% PQ <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 LIB 64% QS 36% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 LIB 65% QS 35% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 LIB 71% QS 29% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 LIB 74% QS 25% CAQ 1% PQ <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 LIB 82% QS 18% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 LIB 78% QS 22% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 LIB 85% QS 15% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 LIB 87% QS 13% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 LIB 91% QS 9% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 LIB 91% QS 9% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 LIB 93% QS 7% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 LIB 95% QS 5% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 LIB 86% QS 14% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 LIB 86% QS 14% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 LIB 68% QS 32% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 QS 55% LIB 45% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 QS 59% LIB 41% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 QS 65% LIB 35% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 QS 65% LIB 35% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 QS 70% LIB 30% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 LIB 51% QS 49% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 LIB 50% QS 50% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 LIB 61% QS 39% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 LIB 68% QS 32% CAQ <1% PQ <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 QS 65% LIB 35% PQ <1% CAQ <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 QS 97% LIB 3% PQ <1% CAQ <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 QS 94% LIB 5% PQ <1% CAQ <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 QS 96% LIB 4% PQ <1% CAQ <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 QS 96% LIB 3% PQ <1% CAQ <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 72% QS 27% PQ <1% CAQ <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 87% QS 13% PQ <1% CAQ <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 85% QS 15% PQ <1% CAQ <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 75% QS 24% PQ <1% CAQ <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB 66% QS 34% PQ <1% CAQ <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB 81% QS 19% PQ 1% CAQ <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 82% QS 16% PQ 2% CAQ <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB 84% QS 14% PQ 2% CAQ <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB 87% QS 12% PQ 1% CAQ <1% 2024-12-08

Recent electoral history | Viau



2014 2018 2022 Proj. LIB 62.0% 46.6% 38.2% 34% ± 9% QS 10.9% 24.3% 30.4% 27% ± 8% CAQ 9.3% 15.7% 15.2% 6% ± 3% PQ 14.7% 8.3% 7.6% 22% ± 7% CPQ 0.0% 1.3% 6.1% 9% ± 4% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.