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Quebec

Jacques-Cartier


MNA: Greg Kelley (LIB)

Latest projection: June 27, 2025
Safe LIB

Recent electoral history | Jacques-Cartier


2014 2018 2022 Proj. LIB 76% ± 6% 85.4% 71.8% 62.6% CPQ 10% ± 4% 0.6% 2.6% 11.2% PQ 5% ± 3% 3.0% 2.8% 3.0% CAQ 3% ± 2% 5.9% 9.3% 9.4% QS 3% ± 2% 2.4% 4.4% 5.0%




338Canada projection for Jacques-Cartier


Jacques-Cartier 76% ± 6%▲ LIB 10% ± 4%▼ CPQ 5% ± 3%▼ PQ 3% ± 2%▼ CAQ 3% ± 2% QS 2% ± 2% IND LIB 2022 62.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Jacques-Cartier >99% LIB <1% CPQ <1% PQ Odds of winning | June 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Jacques-Cartier

LIB 76% ± 6% PQ 5% ± 3% CAQ 3% ± 2% CPQ 10% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Jacques-Cartier 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ CPQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 LIB 62% CPQ 11% CAQ 8% PQ 7% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB 61% CPQ 12% CAQ 8% PQ 8% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB 62% CPQ 10% CAQ 8% PQ 8% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB 67% CPQ 10% PQ 8% CAQ 8% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB 66% CPQ 10% PQ 8% CAQ 7% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB 67% CPQ 9% PQ 8% CAQ 7% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB 66% CPQ 10% PQ 8% CAQ 7% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB 63% CPQ 13% PQ 8% CAQ 7% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB 63% CPQ 15% PQ 8% CAQ 6% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB 63% CPQ 14% PQ 9% CAQ 5% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB 63% CPQ 14% PQ 9% CAQ 5% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB 64% CPQ 14% PQ 9% CAQ 5% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 LIB 67% CPQ 13% PQ 8% CAQ 5% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 LIB 69% CPQ 13% PQ 7% CAQ 5% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 LIB 68% CPQ 13% PQ 7% CAQ 5% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 LIB 68% CPQ 13% PQ 7% CAQ 5% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 LIB 70% CPQ 12% PQ 7% CAQ 4% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 LIB 73% CPQ 11% PQ 6% CAQ 4% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 LIB 76% CPQ 10% PQ 5% CAQ 3% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader

Odds of winning | Jacques-Cartier

LIB >99% CAQ <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB CAQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 LIB >99% CAQ <1% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader