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Quebec

Jacques-Cartier


MNA: Greg Kelley (LIB)

Latest projection: May 19, 2024
Safe LIB hold
Jacques-Cartier 66% ± 8%▼ LIB 10% ± 4% QCP 8% ± 3% PQ 7% ± 3%▼ CAQ 5% ± 3%▼ QS 3% ± 3%▲ OTH LIB 2022 62.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 19, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Jacques-Cartier >99% LIB <1% QCP <1% PQ Odds of winning | May 19, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Jacques-Cartier

LIB 66% ± 8% PQ 8% ± 3% CAQ 7% ± 3% QS 5% ± 3% QCP 10% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Jacques-Cartier 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP May 19, 2024

Odds of winning | Jacques-Cartier

LIB >99% PQ <1% CAQ <1% QS <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS May 19, 2024

Recent electoral history | Jacques-Cartier



2014 2018 2022 Proj. LIB 85.4% 71.8% 62.6% 66% ± 8% QCP 0.6% 2.6% 11.2% 10% ± 4% CAQ 5.9% 9.3% 9.4% 7% ± 3% QS 2.4% 4.4% 5.0% 5% ± 3% PQ 3.0% 2.8% 3.0% 8% ± 3% OTH 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3% ± 3% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.