United Conservative Party
Latest update: October 19, 2026
| Leader | Danielle Smith |
| Popular vote in 2023 | 52.6% |
| Current vote projection | 47.6% ± 4.9% |
| Current number of MLA's | 46 |
| Current seat projection | 44 [33-60] |
Vote projection | October 19, 2026
Seat projection | October 19, 2026
List of favourable electoral districts | United Conservative Party
| Electoral districts | Current party | Projection | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Nate Horner
|
Safe UCP | |
| 2. | Todd Loewen
|
Safe UCP | |
| 3. | Jason Nixon
|
Safe UCP | |
| 4. | Chantelle De Jonge
|
Safe UCP | |
| 5. | Joseph Schow
|
Safe UCP | |
| 6. | Ron Wiebe
|
Safe UCP | |
| 7. | Tara Sawyer
|
Safe UCP | |
| 8. | Garth Rowswell
|
Safe UCP | |
| 9. | Scott Cyr
|
Safe UCP | |
| 10. | Dan Williams
|
Safe UCP | |
| 11. | Andrew Boitchenko
|
Safe UCP | |
| 12. | Brian Jean
|
Safe UCP | |
| 13. | Glenn Van Dijken
|
Safe UCP | |
| 14. | Grant Hunter
|
Safe UCP | |
| 15. | Devin Dreeshen
|
Safe UCP | |
| 16. | Tany Yao
|
Safe UCP | |
| 17. | Chelsae Petrovic
|
Safe UCP | |
| 18. | Jennifer Johnson*
*dropped by UCP but still on ballot |
Safe UCP | |
| 19. | Martin Long
|
Safe UCP | |
| 20. | Shane Getson
|
Safe UCP | |
| 21. | R.J. Sigurdson
|
Safe UCP | |
| 22. | Brandon Lunty
|
Safe UCP | |
| 23. | Searle Turton
|
Safe UCP | |
| 24. | Angela Pitt
|
Safe UCP | |
| 25. | Jackie Lovely
|
Safe UCP | |
| 26. | Danielle Smith
|
Safe UCP | |
| 27. | Rick Wilson
|
Safe UCP | |
| 28. | Peter Guthrie [Elected as UCP]
|
Likely UCP | |
| 29. | Matt Jones
|
Likely UCP | |
| 30. | Nate Glubish
|
Likely UCP | |
| 31. | Dale Nally
|
Likely UCP | |
| 32. | Nolan Dyck
|
Likely UCP | |
| 33. | Eric Bouchard
|
Likely UCP | |
| 34. | Mike Ellis
|
Likely UCP | |
| 35. | Richard William (Ric) Mciver
|
Likely UCP | |
| 36. | Tanya Fir
|
Likely UCP | |
| 37. | Scott Sinclair [Elected as UCP]
|
Likely UCP | |
| 38. | Justin Wright
|
Leaning UCP | |
| 39. | Myles Mcdougall
|
Leaning UCP | |
| 40. | Peter Singh
|
Toss up UCP/NDP | |
| 41. | Jackie Armstrong-Homeniuk
|
Toss up UCP/NDP | |
| 42. | Kyle Kasawski
|
Toss up UCP/NDP | |
| 43. | Mickey Amery
|
Toss up UCP/NDP | |
| 44. | Adriana Lagrange
|
Toss up UCP/NDP | |
| 45. | Muhammad Yaseen
|
Toss up UCP/NDP | |
| 46. | Rajan Sawhney
|
Toss up UCP/NDP | |
| 47. | Diana Batten
|
Toss up UCP/NDP | |
| 48. | Demetrios Nicolaides
|
Toss up UCP/NDP | |
| 49. | Nagwan Al-Guneid
|
Toss up UCP/NDP | |
| 50. | Sharif Haji
|
Toss up UCP/NDP | |
| 51. | Court Ellingson
|
Toss up UCP/NDP | |
| 52. | Nathan Ip
|
Leaning NDP | |
| 53. | Julia Hayter
|
Leaning NDP | |
| 54. | Nicole Goehring
|
Leaning NDP | |
| 55. | Jason Stephan
|
Leaning NDP | |
| 56. | Lizette Tejada
|
Leaning NDP | |
| 57. | Samir Kayande
|
Leaning NDP | |
| 58. | Amanda Chapman
|
Leaning NDP | |
| 59. | Brooks Arcand-Paul
|
Leaning NDP | |
| 60. | Peggy Wright
|
Leaning NDP | |
| 61. | Rhiannon Hoyle
|
Likely NDP | |
| 62. | Kyle Campbell
|
Likely NDP | |
| 63. | Marie Renaud
|
Likely NDP | |
| 64. | Heather Sweet
|
Likely NDP | |
| 65. | Nathan Neudorf
|
Likely NDP | |
| 66. | David Eggen
|
Likely NDP | |
| 67. | Gurinder Brar
|
Likely NDP | |
| 68. | Lorne Dach
|
Likely NDP | |
| 69. | Christina Gray
|
Likely NDP | |
| 70. | Gurtej Singh Brar
|
Likely NDP | |
| 71. | Rakhi Pancholi
|
Likely NDP | |
| 72. | Jasvir Deol
|
Likely NDP | |
| 73. | Irfan Sabir
|
Likely NDP | |
| 74. | Parmeet Singh Boparai
|
Likely NDP | |
| 75. | Janet Eremenko
|
Likely NDP | |
| 76. | Luanne Metz
|
Likely NDP | |
| 77. | Sarah Elmeligi
|
Likely NDP | |
| 78. | Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse
|
Safe NDP |