logo
Alberta

United Conservative Party





Last update: May 31, 2023

LeaderDanielle Smith
Popular vote in 201954.9%
Current vote projection52.6% ± 0.5%
Current number of MLA's49
Current seat projection49 [49-51]

Vote projection | May 31, 2023

52% 53% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 52.1% 52.6% ± 0.5% Max. 53.0% Probabilities % UCP

Seat projection | May 31, 2023

48 49 50 51 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 49 49 Max. 51 Probabilities % UCP

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | United Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Drumheller-Stettler Safe UCP >99%
2. Central Peace-Notley Safe UCP >99%
3. Grande Prairie-Wapiti Safe UCP >99%
4. Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul Safe UCP >99%
5. Taber-Warner Safe UCP >99%
6. Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills Safe UCP >99%
7. Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock Safe UCP >99%
8. Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright Safe UCP >99%
9. Drayton Valley-Devon Safe UCP >99%
10. Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche Safe UCP >99%
11. Peace River Safe UCP >99%
12. Innisfail-Sylvan Lake Safe UCP >99%
13. West Yellowhead Safe UCP >99%
14. Chestermere-Strathmore Safe UCP >99%
15. Cardston-Siksika Safe UCP >99%
16. Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre Safe UCP >99%
17. Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland Safe UCP >99%
18. Highwood Safe UCP >99%
19. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin Safe UCP >99%
20. Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo Safe UCP >99%
21. Lacombe-Ponoka Safe UCP >99%
22. Livingston-Macleod Safe UCP >99%
23. Brooks-Medicine Hat Safe UCP >99%
24. Lesser Slave Lake Safe UCP >99%
25. Grande Prairie Safe UCP >99%
26. Camrose Safe UCP >99%
27. Airdrie East Safe UCP >99%
28. Cypress-Medicine Hat Safe UCP >99%
29. Airdrie-Cochrane Safe UCP >99%
30. Calgary-South East Safe UCP >99%
31. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville Safe UCP >99%
32. Red Deer-North Safe UCP >99%
33. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain Safe UCP >99%
34. Leduc-Beaumont Safe UCP >99%
35. Calgary-West Safe UCP >99%
36. Red Deer-South Safe UCP >99%
37. Calgary-Shaw Safe UCP >99%
38. Calgary-Lougheed Safe UCP >99%
39. Calgary-Hays Likely UCP >99%
40. Calgary-Peigan Likely UCP >99%
41. Calgary-Fish Creek Likely UCP 99%
42. Strathcona-Sherwood Park Likely UCP 99%
43. Morinville-St. Albert Likely UCP 94%
44. Calgary-East Leaning UCP 83%
45. Lethbridge-East Leaning UCP 79%
46. Calgary-Cross Leaning UCP 75%
47. Calgary-Bow Toss up UCP/NDP 65%
48. Calgary-North West Toss up UCP/NDP 56%
49. Calgary-North Toss up UCP/NDP 56%
50. Calgary-Acadia Toss up UCP/NDP 50%
51. Calgary-Glenmore Toss up UCP/NDP 49%
52. Banff-Kananaskis Toss up UCP/NDP 42%
53. Calgary-Foothills Toss up UCP/NDP 39%
54. Calgary-Edgemont Toss up UCP/NDP 38%
55. Calgary-Beddington Leaning NDP 26%
56. Calgary-Elbow Leaning NDP 22%
57. Calgary-Klein Leaning NDP 17%
58. Sherwood Park Likely NDP 5%
59. Calgary-North East Likely NDP 1%
60. Edmonton-Decore Likely NDP 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Drumheller-Stettler Safe UCP
2. Central Peace-Notley Safe UCP
3. Grande Prairie-Wapiti Safe UCP
4. Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul Safe UCP
5. Taber-Warner Safe UCP
6. Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills Safe UCP
7. Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock Safe UCP
8. Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright Safe UCP
9. Drayton Valley-Devon Safe UCP
10. Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche Safe UCP
11. Peace River Safe UCP
12. Innisfail-Sylvan Lake Safe UCP
13. West Yellowhead Safe UCP
14. Chestermere-Strathmore Safe UCP
15. Cardston-Siksika Safe UCP
16. Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre Safe UCP
17. Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland Safe UCP
18. Highwood Safe UCP
19. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin Safe UCP
20. Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo Safe UCP
21. Lacombe-Ponoka Safe UCP
22. Livingston-Macleod Safe UCP
23. Brooks-Medicine Hat Safe UCP
24. Lesser Slave Lake Safe UCP
25. Grande Prairie Safe UCP
26. Camrose Safe UCP
27. Airdrie East Safe UCP
28. Cypress-Medicine Hat Safe UCP
29. Airdrie-Cochrane Safe UCP
30. Calgary-South East Safe UCP
31. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville Safe UCP
32. Red Deer-North Safe UCP
33. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain Safe UCP
34. Leduc-Beaumont Safe UCP
35. Calgary-West Safe UCP
36. Red Deer-South Safe UCP
37. Calgary-Shaw Safe UCP
38. Calgary-Lougheed Safe UCP
39. Calgary-Hays Likely UCP
40. Calgary-Peigan Likely UCP
41. Calgary-Fish Creek Likely UCP
42. Strathcona-Sherwood Park Likely UCP
43. Morinville-St. Albert Likely UCP
44. Calgary-East Leaning UCP
45. Lethbridge-East Leaning UCP
46. Calgary-Cross Leaning UCP
47. Calgary-Bow Toss up UCP/NDP
48. Calgary-North West Toss up UCP/NDP
49. Calgary-North Toss up UCP/NDP
50. Calgary-Acadia Toss up UCP/NDP
51. Calgary-Glenmore Toss up UCP/NDP
52. Banff-Kananaskis Toss up UCP/NDP
53. Calgary-Foothills Toss up UCP/NDP
54. Calgary-Edgemont Toss up UCP/NDP
55. Calgary-Beddington Leaning NDP
56. Calgary-Elbow Leaning NDP
57. Calgary-Klein Leaning NDP
58. Sherwood Park Likely NDP
59. Calgary-North East Likely NDP
60. Edmonton-Decore Likely NDP