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Last update: March 14, 2021
| Leader | Jason Kenney |
| Popular vote in 2019 | 54.9% |
| Current vote projection | 40.2% ± 5.7% |
| Current number of MP's | 62 |
| Current seat projection | 42 ± 13 |
Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the United Conservative Party
| Rank | Electoral districts | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Drumheller-Stettler | |
UCP safe | >99% |
| 2. | Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre | |
UCP safe | >99% |
| 3. | Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills | |
UCP safe | >99% |
| 4. | Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright | |
UCP safe | >99% |
| 5. | Taber-Warner | |
UCP safe | >99% |
| 6. | Lacombe-Ponoka | |
UCP safe | >99% |
| 7. | Innisfail-Sylvan Lake | |
UCP safe | >99% |
| 8. | Grande Prairie-Wapiti | |
UCP safe | >99% |
| 9. | Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul | |
UCP safe | >99% |
| 10. | Cardston-Siksika | |
UCP safe | >99% |
| 11. | Highwood | |
UCP safe | >99% |
| 12. | Chestermere-Strathmore | |
UCP safe | >99% |
| 13. | Drayton Valley-Devon | |
UCP safe | >99% |
| 14. | Central Peace-Notley | |
UCP safe | >99% |
| 15. | Brooks-Medicine Hat | |
UCP safe | >99% |
| 16. | Athabasca-Barrhead | |
UCP safe | >99% |
| 17. | Camrose | |
UCP safe | >99% |
| 18. | West Yellowhead | |
UCP safe | >99% |
| 19. | Livingston-Macleod | |
UCP safe | >99% |
| 20. | Airdrie East | |
UCP safe | >99% |
| 21. | Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo | |
UCP likely | >99% |
| 22. | Calgary-South East | |
UCP likely | >99% |
| 23. | Peace River | |
UCP likely | 99% |
| 24. | Grande Prairie | |
UCP likely | 98% |
| 25. | Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland | |
UCP likely | 98% |
| 26. | Calgary-Lougheed | |
UCP likely | 98% |
| 27. | Calgary-West | |
UCP likely | 96% |
| 28. | Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche | |
UCP likely | 96% |
| 29. | Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin | |
UCP likely | 95% |
| 30. | Calgary-Shaw | |
UCP likely | 95% |
| 31. | Calgary-Hays | |
UCP likely | 95% |
| 32. | Red Deer-North | |
UCP likely | 94% |
| 33. | Airdrie-Cochrane | |
UCP likely | 94% |
| 34. | Cypress-Medicine Hat | |
UCP likely | 92% |
| 35. | Red Deer-South | |
UCP leaning | 76% |
| 36. | Calgary-Fish Creek | |
UCP leaning | 76% |
| 37. | Calgary-Elbow | |
UCP leaning | 72% |
| 38. | Leduc-Beaumont | |
Toss up | 66% |
| 39. | Lesser Slave Lake |  |
Toss up | 64% |
| 40. | Spruce Grove-Stony Plain | |
Toss up | 62% |
| 41. | Lethbridge-East | |
Toss up | 57% |
| 42. | Calgary-Peigan | |
Toss up | 56% |
| 43. | Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville | |
Toss up | 54% |
| 44. | Strathcona-Sherwood Park | |
Toss up | 54% |
| 45. | Morinville-St. Albert | |
Toss up | 51% |
| 46. | Sherwood Park | |
NDP leaning | 29% |
| 47. | Calgary-North | |
NDP leaning | 28% |
| 48. | Calgary-North West | |
NDP leaning | 24% |
| 49. | Calgary-Foothills | |
NDP leaning | 21% |
| 50. | Calgary-Glenmore | |
NDP leaning | 19% |
| 51. | Banff-Kananaskis | |
NDP leaning | 15% |
| 52. | Edmonton-South West | |
NDP leaning | 11% |
| 53. | Calgary-Edgemont | |
NDP leaning | 11% |
| 54. | Calgary-Bow | |
NDP likely | 10% |
| 55. | Calgary-North East | |
NDP likely | 8% |
| 56. | Calgary-Varsity | |
NDP likely | 7% |
| 57. | Calgary-Acadia | |
NDP likely | 5% |
| 58. | Calgary-East | |
NDP likely | 5% |
| 59. | Calgary-Cross | |
NDP likely | 5% |
| 60. | Calgary-Beddington | |
NDP likely | 4% |
| 61. | Calgary-Klein | |
NDP likely | 3% |
| 62. | Calgary-Falconridge | |
NDP likely | <1% |