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United Conservative Party

Latest update: April 12, 2026
LeaderDanielle Smith
Popular vote in 202352.6%
Current vote projection52.5% ± 5.0%
Current number of MLA's47
Current seat projection63 [51-78]

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Vote projection | April 12, 2026

41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 55% 56% 57% 58% 59% 60% 61% 62% 63% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 47.5% 2023 52.6% 52.5% ± 5.0% Max. 57.4% Probabilities % UCP

Seat projection | April 12, 2026

34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69 74 79 84 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Majority 44 seats 2023 49 seats Min. 51 63 Max. 78 Probabilities % UCP

List of favourable electoral districts | United Conservative Party



Electoral districts Current party Projection
1.
Nate Horner
C Safe UCP
2.
Chantelle De Jonge
C Safe UCP
3.
Todd Loewen
C Safe UCP
4. C Safe UCP
5.
Joseph Schow
C Safe UCP
6. C Safe UCP
7. C Safe UCP
8. C Safe UCP
9. C Safe UCP
10.
Dan Williams
C Safe UCP
11.
Andrew Boitchenko
C Safe UCP
12.
Glenn Van Dijken
C Safe UCP
13. C Safe UCP
14.
Devin Dreeshen
C Safe UCP
15.
Grant Hunter
C Safe UCP
16.
Brandon Lunty
C Safe UCP
17. C Safe UCP
18.
Angela Pitt
C Safe UCP
19.
Matt Jones
C Safe UCP
20.
Searle Turton
C Safe UCP
21.
Peter Guthrie [Elected as UCP]
PT Safe UCP
22.
Martin Long
C Safe UCP
23.
Rick Wilson
C Safe UCP
24. C Safe UCP
25.
Rebecca Schulz
C Safe UCP
26.
Shane Getson
C Safe UCP
27.
R.J. Sigurdson
C Safe UCP
28.
Mike Ellis
C Safe UCP
29.
Jackie Lovely
C Safe UCP
30.
Chelsae Petrovic
C Safe UCP
31.
Danielle Smith
C Safe UCP
32.
Jennifer Johnson*
*dropped by UCP but still on ballot
C Safe UCP
33.
Tanya Fir
C Safe UCP
34. C Safe UCP
35.
Eric Bouchard
C Safe UCP
36.
Richard William (Ric) Mciver
C Safe UCP
37.
Nolan Dyck
C Safe UCP
38.
Myles Mcdougall
C Safe UCP
39.
Justin Wright
C Likely UCP
40.
Scott Sinclair [Elected as UCP]
I Likely UCP
41.
Peter Singh
C Likely UCP
42.
Mickey Amery
C Likely UCP
43.
Rajan Sawhney
C Likely UCP
44.
Demetrios Nicolaides
C Likely UCP
45.
Jackie Armstrong-Homeniuk
C Likely UCP
46.
Nagwan Al-Guneid
N Likely UCP gain
47.
Diana Batten
N Likely UCP gain
48.
Muhammad Yaseen
C Likely UCP
49.
Kyle Kasawski
N Likely UCP gain
50.
Court Ellingson
N Likely UCP gain
51.
Adriana Lagrange
C Likely UCP
52.
Julia Hayter
N Likely UCP gain
53.
Lizette Tejada
N Leaning UCP gain
54.
Samir Kayande
N Leaning UCP gain
55.
Amanda Chapman
N Leaning UCP gain
56.
Jason Stephan
C Leaning UCP
57. N Leaning UCP gain
58.
Sharif Haji
N Leaning UCP gain
59.
Nicole Goehring
N Leaning UCP gain
60.
Gurinder Brar
N Toss up UCP/NDP
61.
Brooks Arcand-Paul
N Toss up UCP/NDP
62. N Toss up UCP/NDP
63.
Rhiannon Hoyle
N Toss up UCP/NDP
64.
Marie Renaud
N Toss up UCP/NDP
65.
Heather Sweet
N Toss up UCP/NDP
66.
David Eggen
N Toss up UCP/NDP
67.
Lorne Dach
N Toss up UCP/NDP
68. N Toss up UCP/NDP
69.
Christina Gray
N Toss up UCP/NDP
70.
Nathan Neudorf
C Toss up UCP/NDP
71.
Janet Eremenko
N Toss up UCP/NDP
72.
Parmeet Singh Boparai
N Leaning NDP
73.
Rakhi Pancholi
N Leaning NDP
74.
Gurtej Singh Brar
N Leaning NDP
75.
Luanne Metz
N Leaning NDP
76.
Jasvir Deol
N Leaning NDP
77.
Sarah Elmeligi
N Likely NDP
78.
Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse
N Likely NDP
79.
Shannon Phillips
N Likely NDP
80.
Joe Ceci
N Likely NDP
81.
Lori Sigurdson
N Likely NDP
82.
Kathleen Ganley
N Safe NDP
83.
Sarah Hoffman
N Safe NDP
84.
Marlin Schmidt
N Safe NDP