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Alberta

United Conservative Party





Last update: September 11, 2022

LeaderJason Kenney
Popular vote in 201954.9%
Current vote projection43.8% ± 6.6%
Current number of MLA's61
Current seat projection51 [33-66]



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the United Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre Safe UCP hold >99%
2. Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright Safe UCP hold >99%
3. Drumheller-Stettler Safe UCP hold >99%
4. Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills Safe UCP hold >99%
5. Taber-Warner Safe UCP hold >99%
6. Innisfail-Sylvan Lake Safe UCP hold >99%
7. Grande Prairie-Wapiti Safe UCP hold >99%
8. Lacombe-Ponoka Safe UCP hold >99%
9. Highwood Safe UCP hold >99%
10. Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul Safe UCP hold >99%
11. Cardston-Siksika Safe UCP hold >99%
12. Chestermere-Strathmore Safe UCP hold >99%
13. Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche Safe UCP hold >99%
14. Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo Safe UCP hold >99%
15. Drayton Valley-Devon Safe UCP hold >99%
16. Central Peace-Notley Safe UCP hold >99%
17. Calgary-South East Safe UCP hold >99%
18. Athabasca-Barrhead Safe UCP hold >99%
19. Camrose Safe UCP hold >99%
20. Livingston-Macleod Safe UCP hold >99%
21. Brooks-Medicine Hat Safe UCP hold >99%
22. Airdrie East Safe UCP hold >99%
23. Grande Prairie Safe UCP hold >99%
24. West Yellowhead Likely UCP hold >99%
25. Peace River Likely UCP hold >99%
26. Calgary-Lougheed Likely UCP hold >99%
27. Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland Likely UCP hold >99%
28. Calgary-West Likely UCP hold 99%
29. Calgary-Shaw Likely UCP hold 99%
30. Calgary-Hays Likely UCP hold 99%
31. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin Likely UCP hold 97%
32. Airdrie-Cochrane Likely UCP hold 96%
33. Red Deer-North Likely UCP hold 96%
34. Cypress-Medicine Hat Likely UCP hold 96%
35. Calgary-Fish Creek Likely UCP hold 94%
36. Calgary-Peigan Likely UCP hold 91%
37. Red Deer-South Leaning UCP hold 88%
38. Calgary-Elbow Leaning UCP hold 88%
39. Leduc-Beaumont Leaning UCP hold 77%
40. Calgary-North Leaning UCP hold 73%
41. Calgary-North West Leaning UCP hold 71%
42. Calgary-Foothills Toss up UCP/NDP 68%
43. Calgary-Glenmore Toss up UCP/NDP 67%
44. Calgary-Bow Toss up UCP/NDP 67%
45. Lesser Slave Lake Toss up UCP/NDP 65%
46. Calgary-Edgemont Toss up UCP/NDP 65%
47. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain Toss up UCP/NDP 65%
48. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville Toss up UCP/NDP 61%
49. Calgary-Cross Toss up UCP/NDP 57%
50. Calgary-Acadia Toss up UCP/NDP 57%
51. Calgary-Beddington Toss up UCP/NDP 50%
52. Calgary-East Toss up UCP/NDP 48%
53. Strathcona-Sherwood Park Toss up UCP/NDP 45%
54. Edmonton-South West Toss up UCP/NDP 44%
55. Morinville-St. Albert Toss up UCP/NDP 42%
56. Calgary-North East Toss up UCP/NDP 37%
57. Calgary-Klein Leaning NDP gain 25%
58. Calgary-Currie Leaning NDP gain 23%
59. Lethbridge-East Leaning NDP gain 20%
60. Banff-Kananaskis Leaning NDP gain 18%
61. Sherwood Park Leaning NDP gain 14%
62. Calgary-Varsity Leaning NDP gain 13%
63. Calgary-Falconridge Likely NDP gain 8%
64. Edmonton-West Henday Likely NDP hold 5%
65. Edmonton-South Likely NDP hold 4%
66. St. Albert Likely NDP hold 3%
67. Edmonton-Decore Likely NDP hold 1%
68. Edmonton-McClung Likely NDP hold <1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre Safe UCP hold
2. Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright Safe UCP hold
3. Drumheller-Stettler Safe UCP hold
4. Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills Safe UCP hold
5. Taber-Warner Safe UCP hold
6. Innisfail-Sylvan Lake Safe UCP hold
7. Grande Prairie-Wapiti Safe UCP hold
8. Lacombe-Ponoka Safe UCP hold
9. Highwood Safe UCP hold
10. Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul Safe UCP hold
11. Cardston-Siksika Safe UCP hold
12. Chestermere-Strathmore Safe UCP hold
13. Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche Safe UCP hold
14. Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo Safe UCP hold
15. Drayton Valley-Devon Safe UCP hold
16. Central Peace-Notley Safe UCP hold
17. Calgary-South East Safe UCP hold
18. Athabasca-Barrhead Safe UCP hold
19. Camrose Safe UCP hold
20. Livingston-Macleod Safe UCP hold
21. Brooks-Medicine Hat Safe UCP hold
22. Airdrie East Safe UCP hold
23. Grande Prairie Safe UCP hold
24. West Yellowhead Likely UCP hold
25. Peace River Likely UCP hold
26. Calgary-Lougheed Likely UCP hold
27. Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland Likely UCP hold
28. Calgary-West Likely UCP hold
29. Calgary-Shaw Likely UCP hold
30. Calgary-Hays Likely UCP hold
31. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin Likely UCP hold
32. Airdrie-Cochrane Likely UCP hold
33. Red Deer-North Likely UCP hold
34. Cypress-Medicine Hat Likely UCP hold
35. Calgary-Fish Creek Likely UCP hold
36. Calgary-Peigan Likely UCP hold
37. Red Deer-South Leaning UCP hold
38. Calgary-Elbow Leaning UCP hold
39. Leduc-Beaumont Leaning UCP hold
40. Calgary-North Leaning UCP hold
41. Calgary-North West Leaning UCP hold
42. Calgary-Foothills Toss up UCP/NDP
43. Calgary-Glenmore Toss up UCP/NDP
44. Calgary-Bow Toss up UCP/NDP
45. Lesser Slave Lake Toss up UCP/NDP
46. Calgary-Edgemont Toss up UCP/NDP
47. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain Toss up UCP/NDP
48. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville Toss up UCP/NDP
49. Calgary-Cross Toss up UCP/NDP
50. Calgary-Acadia Toss up UCP/NDP
51. Calgary-Beddington Toss up UCP/NDP
52. Calgary-East Toss up UCP/NDP
53. Strathcona-Sherwood Park Toss up UCP/NDP
54. Edmonton-South West Toss up UCP/NDP
55. Morinville-St. Albert Toss up UCP/NDP
56. Calgary-North East Toss up UCP/NDP
57. Calgary-Klein Leaning NDP gain
58. Calgary-Currie Leaning NDP gain
59. Lethbridge-East Leaning NDP gain
60. Banff-Kananaskis Leaning NDP gain
61. Sherwood Park Leaning NDP gain
62. Calgary-Varsity Leaning NDP gain
63. Calgary-Falconridge Likely NDP gain
64. Edmonton-West Henday Likely NDP hold
65. Edmonton-South Likely NDP hold
66. St. Albert Likely NDP hold
67. Edmonton-Decore Likely NDP hold
68. Edmonton-McClung Likely NDP hold