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Alberta

United Conservative Party





Last update: January 29, 2023

LeaderDanielle Smith
Popular vote in 201954.9%
Current vote projection45.8% ± 6.4%
Current number of MLA's59
Current seat projection45 [37-59]

Vote projection | January 29, 2023

31% 33% 35% 37% 39% 41% 43% 45% 47% 49% 51% 53% 55% 57% 59% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 39.4% 45.8% ± 6.4% Max. 52.2% 2019 54.9% Probabilities % UCP

Seat projection | January 29, 2023

23 28 33 38 43 48 53 58 63 68 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 37 Majority 44 seats 45 Max. 59 2019 63 seats Probabilities % UCP

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | United Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre Safe UCP hold >99%
2. Drumheller-Stettler Safe UCP hold >99%
3. Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright Safe UCP hold >99%
4. Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills Safe UCP hold >99%
5. Taber-Warner Safe UCP hold >99%
6. Innisfail-Sylvan Lake Safe UCP hold >99%
7. Grande Prairie-Wapiti Safe UCP hold >99%
8. Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul Safe UCP hold >99%
9. Lacombe-Ponoka Safe UCP hold >99%
10. Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche Safe UCP hold >99%
11. Cardston-Siksika Safe UCP hold >99%
12. Highwood Safe UCP hold >99%
13. Chestermere-Strathmore Safe UCP hold >99%
14. Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo Safe UCP hold >99%
15. Drayton Valley-Devon Safe UCP hold >99%
16. Camrose Safe UCP hold >99%
17. Grande Prairie Safe UCP hold >99%
18. Livingston-Macleod Safe UCP hold >99%
19. West Yellowhead Safe UCP hold >99%
20. Brooks-Medicine Hat Safe UCP hold >99%
21. Central Peace-Notley Safe UCP hold >99%
22. Athabasca-Barrhead Likely UCP hold >99%
23. Calgary-South East Likely UCP hold >99%
24. Peace River Likely UCP hold >99%
25. Leduc-Beaumont Likely UCP hold >99%
26. Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland Likely UCP hold >99%
27. Airdrie East Likely UCP hold 99%
28. Calgary-Lougheed Likely UCP hold 98%
29. Calgary-West Likely UCP hold 98%
30. Calgary-Shaw Likely UCP hold 97%
31. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin Likely UCP hold 97%
32. Calgary-Hays Likely UCP hold 97%
33. Red Deer-North Likely UCP hold 96%
34. Cypress-Medicine Hat Likely UCP hold 96%
35. Airdrie-Cochrane Likely UCP hold 96%
36. Strathcona-Sherwood Park Likely UCP hold 93%
37. Morinville-St. Albert Likely UCP hold 92%
38. Red Deer-South Leaning UCP hold 89%
39. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain Leaning UCP hold 87%
40. Lesser Slave Lake Leaning UCP hold 86%
41. Calgary-Fish Creek Leaning UCP hold 80%
42. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville Leaning UCP hold 78%
43. Calgary-Peigan Leaning UCP hold 72%
44. Calgary-Foothills Toss up UCP/NDP 64%
45. Calgary-North Toss up UCP/NDP 50%
46. Calgary-North West Toss up UCP/NDP 50%
47. Calgary-Glenmore Toss up UCP/NDP 50%
48. Lethbridge-East Toss up UCP/NDP 49%
49. Calgary-Elbow Toss up UCP/NDP 45%
50. Calgary-Bow Toss up UCP/NDP 43%
51. Calgary-Edgemont Toss up UCP/NDP 38%
52. Calgary-Cross Toss up UCP/NDP 35%
53. Sherwood Park Toss up UCP/NDP 32%
54. Calgary-East Leaning NDP gain 27%
55. Calgary-Beddington Leaning NDP gain 26%
56. Calgary-Acadia Leaning NDP gain 24%
57. Banff-Kananaskis Leaning NDP gain 24%
58. Edmonton-South West Leaning NDP gain 23%
59. Calgary-North East Leaning NDP gain 18%
60. Calgary-Klein Leaning NDP gain 13%
61. Calgary-Currie Likely NDP gain 9%
62. St. Albert Likely NDP hold 8%
63. Edmonton-West Henday Likely NDP hold 5%
64. Calgary-Varsity Likely NDP gain 4%
65. Calgary-Falconridge Likely NDP gain 3%
66. Edmonton-South Likely NDP hold 2%
67. Edmonton-McClung Likely NDP hold 1%
68. Edmonton-Decore Likely NDP hold 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre Safe UCP hold
2. Drumheller-Stettler Safe UCP hold
3. Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright Safe UCP hold
4. Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills Safe UCP hold
5. Taber-Warner Safe UCP hold
6. Innisfail-Sylvan Lake Safe UCP hold
7. Grande Prairie-Wapiti Safe UCP hold
8. Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul Safe UCP hold
9. Lacombe-Ponoka Safe UCP hold
10. Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche Safe UCP hold
11. Cardston-Siksika Safe UCP hold
12. Highwood Safe UCP hold
13. Chestermere-Strathmore Safe UCP hold
14. Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo Safe UCP hold
15. Drayton Valley-Devon Safe UCP hold
16. Camrose Safe UCP hold
17. Grande Prairie Safe UCP hold
18. Livingston-Macleod Safe UCP hold
19. West Yellowhead Safe UCP hold
20. Brooks-Medicine Hat Safe UCP hold
21. Central Peace-Notley Safe UCP hold
22. Athabasca-Barrhead Likely UCP hold
23. Calgary-South East Likely UCP hold
24. Peace River Likely UCP hold
25. Leduc-Beaumont Likely UCP hold
26. Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland Likely UCP hold
27. Airdrie East Likely UCP hold
28. Calgary-Lougheed Likely UCP hold
29. Calgary-West Likely UCP hold
30. Calgary-Shaw Likely UCP hold
31. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin Likely UCP hold
32. Calgary-Hays Likely UCP hold
33. Red Deer-North Likely UCP hold
34. Cypress-Medicine Hat Likely UCP hold
35. Airdrie-Cochrane Likely UCP hold
36. Strathcona-Sherwood Park Likely UCP hold
37. Morinville-St. Albert Likely UCP hold
38. Red Deer-South Leaning UCP hold
39. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain Leaning UCP hold
40. Lesser Slave Lake Leaning UCP hold
41. Calgary-Fish Creek Leaning UCP hold
42. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville Leaning UCP hold
43. Calgary-Peigan Leaning UCP hold
44. Calgary-Foothills Toss up UCP/NDP
45. Calgary-North Toss up UCP/NDP
46. Calgary-North West Toss up UCP/NDP
47. Calgary-Glenmore Toss up UCP/NDP
48. Lethbridge-East Toss up UCP/NDP
49. Calgary-Elbow Toss up UCP/NDP
50. Calgary-Bow Toss up UCP/NDP
51. Calgary-Edgemont Toss up UCP/NDP
52. Calgary-Cross Toss up UCP/NDP
53. Sherwood Park Toss up UCP/NDP
54. Calgary-East Leaning NDP gain
55. Calgary-Beddington Leaning NDP gain
56. Calgary-Acadia Leaning NDP gain
57. Banff-Kananaskis Leaning NDP gain
58. Edmonton-South West Leaning NDP gain
59. Calgary-North East Leaning NDP gain
60. Calgary-Klein Leaning NDP gain
61. Calgary-Currie Likely NDP gain
62. St. Albert Likely NDP hold
63. Edmonton-West Henday Likely NDP hold
64. Calgary-Varsity Likely NDP gain
65. Calgary-Falconridge Likely NDP gain
66. Edmonton-South Likely NDP hold
67. Edmonton-McClung Likely NDP hold
68. Edmonton-Decore Likely NDP hold