338Canada Alberta | United Conservative Party





Last update: October 24, 2021

LeaderJason Kenney
Popular vote in 201954.9%
Current vote projection32.2% ± 5.5%
Current number of MLA's61
Current seat projection27 [16-42]



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the United Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Drumheller-Stettler UCP safe >99%
2. Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre UCP safe >99%
3. Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright UCP safe >99%
4. Taber-Warner UCP safe >99%
5. Innisfail-Sylvan Lake UCP safe >99%
6. Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills UCP safe >99%
7. Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul UCP safe >99%
8. Grande Prairie-Wapiti UCP safe >99%
9. Lacombe-Ponoka UCP safe >99%
10. Cardston-Siksika UCP likely >99%
11. Highwood UCP likely 99%
12. Chestermere-Strathmore UCP likely 99%
13. Drayton Valley-Devon UCP likely 99%
14. Central Peace-Notley UCP likely 98%
15. Athabasca-Barrhead UCP likely 95%
16. Camrose UCP likely 94%
17. Brooks-Medicine Hat UCP likely 93%
18. Livingston-Macleod UCP likely 92%
19. Airdrie East UCP likely 91%
20. West Yellowhead UCP leaning 90%
21. Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo UCP leaning 88%
22. Peace River UCP leaning 80%
23. Calgary-South East Toss up UCP/NDP 66%
24. Grande Prairie Toss up UCP/NDP 66%
25. Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland Toss up UCP/NDP 64%
26. Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche Toss up UCP/NDP 57%
27. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin Toss up UCP/NDP 54%
28. Airdrie-Cochrane Toss up UCP/NDP 50%
29. Red Deer-North Toss up UCP/NDP 49%
30. Cypress-Medicine Hat Toss up UCP/NDP 48%
31. Calgary-West Toss up UCP/NDP 48%
32. Calgary-Lougheed Toss up UCP/NDP 43%
33. Calgary-Shaw Toss up UCP/NDP 42%
34. Calgary-Hays Toss up UCP/NDP 34%
35. Red Deer-South NDP leaning 26%
36. Calgary-Fish Creek NDP leaning 20%
37. Calgary-Elbow NDP leaning 16%
38. Calgary-Peigan NDP leaning 12%
39. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain NDP leaning 12%
40. Leduc-Beaumont NDP likely 9%
41. Calgary-North NDP likely 4%
42. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville NDP likely 4%
43. Lesser Slave Lake NDP likely 3%
44. Strathcona-Sherwood Park NDP likely 2%
45. Calgary-North West NDP likely 2%
46. Calgary-Foothills NDP likely 1%
47. Calgary-Glenmore NDP likely 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Drumheller-Stettler UCP safe
2. Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre UCP safe
3. Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright UCP safe
4. Taber-Warner UCP safe
5. Innisfail-Sylvan Lake UCP safe
6. Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills UCP safe
7. Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul UCP safe
8. Grande Prairie-Wapiti UCP safe
9. Lacombe-Ponoka UCP safe
10. Cardston-Siksika UCP likely
11. Highwood UCP likely
12. Chestermere-Strathmore UCP likely
13. Drayton Valley-Devon UCP likely
14. Central Peace-Notley UCP likely
15. Athabasca-Barrhead UCP likely
16. Camrose UCP likely
17. Brooks-Medicine Hat UCP likely
18. Livingston-Macleod UCP likely
19. Airdrie East UCP likely
20. West Yellowhead UCP leaning
21. Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo UCP leaning
22. Peace River UCP leaning
23. Calgary-South East Toss up UCP/NDP
24. Grande Prairie Toss up UCP/NDP
25. Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland Toss up UCP/NDP
26. Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche Toss up UCP/NDP
27. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin Toss up UCP/NDP
28. Airdrie-Cochrane Toss up UCP/NDP
29. Red Deer-North Toss up UCP/NDP
30. Cypress-Medicine Hat Toss up UCP/NDP
31. Calgary-West Toss up UCP/NDP
32. Calgary-Lougheed Toss up UCP/NDP
33. Calgary-Shaw Toss up UCP/NDP
34. Calgary-Hays Toss up UCP/NDP
35. Red Deer-South NDP leaning
36. Calgary-Fish Creek NDP leaning
37. Calgary-Elbow NDP leaning
38. Calgary-Peigan NDP leaning
39. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain NDP leaning
40. Leduc-Beaumont NDP likely
41. Calgary-North NDP likely
42. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville NDP likely
43. Lesser Slave Lake NDP likely
44. Strathcona-Sherwood Park NDP likely
45. Calgary-North West NDP likely
46. Calgary-Foothills NDP likely
47. Calgary-Glenmore NDP likely



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