338Canada Alberta - United Conservative Party





Last update: January 9, 2021

LeaderJason Kenney
Popular vote in 201954.9%
Current vote projection39.7% ± 6.3%
Current number of MP's62
Current seat projection40 ± 14



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the United Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Drumheller-Stettler UCP safe >99%
2. Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre UCP safe >99%
3. Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills UCP safe >99%
4. Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright UCP safe >99%
5. Taber-Warner UCP safe >99%
6. Lacombe-Ponoka UCP safe >99%
7. Innisfail-Sylvan Lake UCP safe >99%
8. Grande Prairie-Wapiti UCP safe >99%
9. Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul UCP safe >99%
10. Cardston-Siksika UCP safe >99%
11. Highwood UCP safe >99%
12. Chestermere-Strathmore UCP safe >99%
13. Drayton Valley-Devon UCP safe >99%
14. Brooks-Medicine Hat UCP safe >99%
15. Central Peace-Notley UCP safe >99%
16. Athabasca-Barrhead UCP safe >99%
17. Camrose UCP likely >99%
18. West Yellowhead UCP likely >99%
19. Livingston-Macleod UCP likely >99%
20. Airdrie East UCP likely >99%
21. Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo UCP likely 99%
22. Calgary-South East UCP likely 99%
23. Peace River UCP likely 98%
24. Calgary-Lougheed UCP likely 96%
25. Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland UCP likely 95%
26. Grande Prairie UCP likely 95%
27. Calgary-West UCP likely 93%
28. Calgary-Shaw UCP likely 91%
29. Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche UCP likely 91%
30. Calgary-Hays UCP likely 91%
31. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin UCP leaning 90%
32. Airdrie-Cochrane UCP leaning 88%
33. Red Deer-North UCP leaning 86%
34. Cypress-Medicine Hat UCP leaning 85%
35. Red Deer-South Toss up 63%
36. Calgary-Fish Creek Toss up 62%
37. Leduc-Beaumont Toss up 55%
38. Lesser Slave Lake Toss up 55%
39. Calgary-Peigan Toss up 52%
40. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain Toss up 51%
41. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville Toss up 44%
42. Strathcona-Sherwood Park Toss up 40%
43. Lethbridge-East Toss up 39%
44. Calgary-Elbow Toss up 39%
45. Morinville-St. Albert Toss up 33%
46. Calgary-North NDP leaning 25%
47. Calgary-North West NDP leaning 22%
48. Calgary-Foothills NDP leaning 20%
49. Calgary-Glenmore NDP leaning 18%
50. Sherwood Park NDP leaning 13%
51. Calgary-Bow NDP likely 9%
52. Calgary-North East NDP likely 8%
53. Calgary-Edgemont NDP likely 6%
54. Edmonton-South West NDP likely 6%
55. Calgary-Acadia NDP likely 5%
56. Banff-Kananaskis NDP likely 5%
57. Calgary-Beddington NDP likely 4%
58. Calgary-Klein NDP likely 3%
59. Calgary-East NDP likely 3%
60. Calgary-Varsity NDP likely 3%
61. Calgary-Cross NDP likely 3%
62. Calgary-Falconridge NDP likely <1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Drumheller-Stettler UCP safe
2. Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre UCP safe
3. Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills UCP safe
4. Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright UCP safe
5. Taber-Warner UCP safe
6. Lacombe-Ponoka UCP safe
7. Innisfail-Sylvan Lake UCP safe
8. Grande Prairie-Wapiti UCP safe
9. Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul UCP safe
10. Cardston-Siksika UCP safe
11. Highwood UCP safe
12. Chestermere-Strathmore UCP safe
13. Drayton Valley-Devon UCP safe
14. Brooks-Medicine Hat UCP safe
15. Central Peace-Notley UCP safe
16. Athabasca-Barrhead UCP safe
17. Camrose UCP likely
18. West Yellowhead UCP likely
19. Livingston-Macleod UCP likely
20. Airdrie East UCP likely
21. Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo UCP likely
22. Calgary-South East UCP likely
23. Peace River UCP likely
24. Calgary-Lougheed UCP likely
25. Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland UCP likely
26. Grande Prairie UCP likely
27. Calgary-West UCP likely
28. Calgary-Shaw UCP likely
29. Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche UCP likely
30. Calgary-Hays UCP likely
31. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin UCP leaning
32. Airdrie-Cochrane UCP leaning
33. Red Deer-North UCP leaning
34. Cypress-Medicine Hat UCP leaning
35. Red Deer-South Toss up
36. Calgary-Fish Creek Toss up
37. Leduc-Beaumont Toss up
38. Lesser Slave Lake Toss up
39. Calgary-Peigan Toss up
40. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain Toss up
41. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville Toss up
42. Strathcona-Sherwood Park Toss up
43. Lethbridge-East Toss up
44. Calgary-Elbow Toss up
45. Morinville-St. Albert Toss up
46. Calgary-North NDP leaning
47. Calgary-North West NDP leaning
48. Calgary-Foothills NDP leaning
49. Calgary-Glenmore NDP leaning
50. Sherwood Park NDP leaning
51. Calgary-Bow NDP likely
52. Calgary-North East NDP likely
53. Calgary-Edgemont NDP likely
54. Edmonton-South West NDP likely
55. Calgary-Acadia NDP likely
56. Banff-Kananaskis NDP likely
57. Calgary-Beddington NDP likely
58. Calgary-Klein NDP likely
59. Calgary-East NDP likely
60. Calgary-Varsity NDP likely
61. Calgary-Cross NDP likely
62. Calgary-Falconridge NDP likely



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