338Canada Alberta - United Conservative Party





Last update: March 14, 2021

LeaderJason Kenney
Popular vote in 201954.9%
Current vote projection40.2% ± 5.7%
Current number of MP's62
Current seat projection42 ± 13



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the United Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Drumheller-Stettler UCP safe >99%
2. Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre UCP safe >99%
3. Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills UCP safe >99%
4. Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright UCP safe >99%
5. Taber-Warner UCP safe >99%
6. Lacombe-Ponoka UCP safe >99%
7. Innisfail-Sylvan Lake UCP safe >99%
8. Grande Prairie-Wapiti UCP safe >99%
9. Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul UCP safe >99%
10. Cardston-Siksika UCP safe >99%
11. Highwood UCP safe >99%
12. Chestermere-Strathmore UCP safe >99%
13. Drayton Valley-Devon UCP safe >99%
14. Central Peace-Notley UCP safe >99%
15. Brooks-Medicine Hat UCP safe >99%
16. Athabasca-Barrhead UCP safe >99%
17. Camrose UCP safe >99%
18. West Yellowhead UCP safe >99%
19. Livingston-Macleod UCP safe >99%
20. Airdrie East UCP safe >99%
21. Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo UCP likely >99%
22. Calgary-South East UCP likely >99%
23. Peace River UCP likely 99%
24. Grande Prairie UCP likely 98%
25. Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland UCP likely 98%
26. Calgary-Lougheed UCP likely 98%
27. Calgary-West UCP likely 96%
28. Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche UCP likely 96%
29. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin UCP likely 95%
30. Calgary-Shaw UCP likely 95%
31. Calgary-Hays UCP likely 95%
32. Red Deer-North UCP likely 94%
33. Airdrie-Cochrane UCP likely 94%
34. Cypress-Medicine Hat UCP likely 92%
35. Red Deer-South UCP leaning 76%
36. Calgary-Fish Creek UCP leaning 76%
37. Calgary-Elbow UCP leaning 72%
38. Leduc-Beaumont Toss up 66%
39. Lesser Slave Lake Toss up 64%
40. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain Toss up 62%
41. Lethbridge-East Toss up 57%
42. Calgary-Peigan Toss up 56%
43. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville Toss up 54%
44. Strathcona-Sherwood Park Toss up 54%
45. Morinville-St. Albert Toss up 51%
46. Sherwood Park NDP leaning 29%
47. Calgary-North NDP leaning 28%
48. Calgary-North West NDP leaning 24%
49. Calgary-Foothills NDP leaning 21%
50. Calgary-Glenmore NDP leaning 19%
51. Banff-Kananaskis NDP leaning 15%
52. Edmonton-South West NDP leaning 11%
53. Calgary-Edgemont NDP leaning 11%
54. Calgary-Bow NDP likely 10%
55. Calgary-North East NDP likely 8%
56. Calgary-Varsity NDP likely 7%
57. Calgary-Acadia NDP likely 5%
58. Calgary-East NDP likely 5%
59. Calgary-Cross NDP likely 5%
60. Calgary-Beddington NDP likely 4%
61. Calgary-Klein NDP likely 3%
62. Calgary-Falconridge NDP likely <1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Drumheller-Stettler UCP safe
2. Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre UCP safe
3. Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills UCP safe
4. Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright UCP safe
5. Taber-Warner UCP safe
6. Lacombe-Ponoka UCP safe
7. Innisfail-Sylvan Lake UCP safe
8. Grande Prairie-Wapiti UCP safe
9. Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul UCP safe
10. Cardston-Siksika UCP safe
11. Highwood UCP safe
12. Chestermere-Strathmore UCP safe
13. Drayton Valley-Devon UCP safe
14. Central Peace-Notley UCP safe
15. Brooks-Medicine Hat UCP safe
16. Athabasca-Barrhead UCP safe
17. Camrose UCP safe
18. West Yellowhead UCP safe
19. Livingston-Macleod UCP safe
20. Airdrie East UCP safe
21. Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo UCP likely
22. Calgary-South East UCP likely
23. Peace River UCP likely
24. Grande Prairie UCP likely
25. Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland UCP likely
26. Calgary-Lougheed UCP likely
27. Calgary-West UCP likely
28. Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche UCP likely
29. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin UCP likely
30. Calgary-Shaw UCP likely
31. Calgary-Hays UCP likely
32. Red Deer-North UCP likely
33. Airdrie-Cochrane UCP likely
34. Cypress-Medicine Hat UCP likely
35. Red Deer-South UCP leaning
36. Calgary-Fish Creek UCP leaning
37. Calgary-Elbow UCP leaning
38. Leduc-Beaumont Toss up
39. Lesser Slave Lake Toss up
40. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain Toss up
41. Lethbridge-East Toss up
42. Calgary-Peigan Toss up
43. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville Toss up
44. Strathcona-Sherwood Park Toss up
45. Morinville-St. Albert Toss up
46. Sherwood Park NDP leaning
47. Calgary-North NDP leaning
48. Calgary-North West NDP leaning
49. Calgary-Foothills NDP leaning
50. Calgary-Glenmore NDP leaning
51. Banff-Kananaskis NDP leaning
52. Edmonton-South West NDP leaning
53. Calgary-Edgemont NDP leaning
54. Calgary-Bow NDP likely
55. Calgary-North East NDP likely
56. Calgary-Varsity NDP likely
57. Calgary-Acadia NDP likely
58. Calgary-East NDP likely
59. Calgary-Cross NDP likely
60. Calgary-Beddington NDP likely
61. Calgary-Klein NDP likely
62. Calgary-Falconridge NDP likely



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