United Conservative Party

Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the United Conservative Party

Rank	Electoral districts	Current party	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre		Safe UCP hold	>99%
2.	Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright		Safe UCP hold	>99%
3.	Taber-Warner		Safe UCP hold	>99%
4.	Drumheller-Stettler		Safe UCP hold	>99%
5.	Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills		Safe UCP hold	>99%
6.	Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche		Safe UCP hold	>99%
7.	Grande Prairie-Wapiti		Safe UCP hold	>99%
8.	Innisfail-Sylvan Lake		Safe UCP hold	>99%
9.	Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo		Safe UCP hold	>99%
10.	Lacombe-Ponoka		Safe UCP hold	>99%
11.	Highwood		Safe UCP hold	>99%
12.	Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul		Safe UCP hold	>99%
13.	Central Peace-Notley		Safe UCP hold	>99%
14.	Cardston-Siksika		Safe UCP hold	>99%
15.	Drayton Valley-Devon		Safe UCP hold	>99%
16.	Chestermere-Strathmore		Safe UCP hold	>99%
17.	Camrose		Safe UCP hold	>99%
18.	Brooks-Medicine Hat		Safe UCP hold	>99%
19.	West Yellowhead		Safe UCP hold	>99%
20.	Athabasca-Barrhead		Safe UCP hold	>99%
21.	Livingston-Macleod		Safe UCP hold	>99%
22.	Grande Prairie		Safe UCP hold	>99%
23.	Airdrie East		Safe UCP hold	>99%
24.	Peace River		Safe UCP hold	>99%
25.	Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland		Safe UCP hold	>99%
26.	Calgary-South East		Safe UCP hold	>99%
27.	Calgary-Lougheed		Likely UCP hold	>99%
28.	Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin		Likely UCP hold	>99%
29.	Red Deer-North		Likely UCP hold	>99%
30.	Calgary-West		Likely UCP hold	>99%
31.	Airdrie-Cochrane		Likely UCP hold	>99%
32.	Calgary-Shaw		Likely UCP hold	>99%
33.	Cypress-Medicine Hat		Likely UCP hold	>99%
34.	Calgary-Hays		Likely UCP hold	>99%
35.	Red Deer-South		Likely UCP hold	98%
36.	Calgary-Fish Creek		Likely UCP hold	96%
37.	Leduc-Beaumont		Likely UCP hold	95%
38.	Calgary-Peigan		Likely UCP hold	94%
39.	Calgary-Elbow		Likely UCP hold	91%
40.	Spruce Grove-Stony Plain		Likely UCP hold	90%
41.	Calgary-North		Leaning UCP hold	78%
42.	Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville		Leaning UCP hold	78%
43.	Calgary-North West		Leaning UCP hold	76%
44.	Calgary-Foothills		Leaning UCP hold	74%
45.	Calgary-Glenmore		Leaning UCP hold	73%
46.	Calgary-Bow		Leaning UCP hold	72%
47.	Calgary-Edgemont		Leaning UCP hold	70%
48.	Lesser Slave Lake		Leaning UCP hold	70%
49.	Calgary-Cross		Toss up UCP/NDP	63%
50.	Calgary-Acadia		Toss up UCP/NDP	63%
51.	Calgary-Beddington		Toss up UCP/NDP	56%
52.	Strathcona-Sherwood Park		Toss up UCP/NDP	54%
53.	Morinville-St. Albert		Toss up UCP/NDP	40%
54.	Calgary-East		Toss up UCP/NDP	37%
55.	Calgary-North East		Toss up UCP/NDP	30%
56.	Lethbridge-East		Leaning NDP gain	27%
57.	Banff-Kananaskis		Leaning NDP gain	16%
58.	Edmonton-South West		Leaning NDP gain	14%
59.	Calgary-Klein		Likely NDP gain	10%
60.	Sherwood Park		Likely NDP gain	8%
61.	Calgary-Varsity		Likely NDP gain	7%
62.	Calgary-Falconridge		Likely NDP gain	5%
63.	Calgary-Currie		Likely NDP gain	4%
64.	Lethbridge-West		Likely NDP hold	<1%
65.	Edmonton-West Henday		Likely NDP hold	<1%