United Conservative Party

Last update: June 6, 2022
Leader | Jason Kenney |
Popular vote in 2019 | 54.9% |
Current vote projection | 42.4% ± 6.0% |
Current number of MLA's | 61 |
Current seat projection | 52 [37-62] |
Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the United Conservative Party
Rank | Electoral districts | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
2. | Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
3. | Taber-Warner | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
4. | Drumheller-Stettler | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
5. | Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
6. | Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
7. | Grande Prairie-Wapiti | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
8. | Innisfail-Sylvan Lake | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
9. | Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
10. | Lacombe-Ponoka | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
11. | Highwood | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
12. | Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
13. | Central Peace-Notley | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
14. | Cardston-Siksika | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
15. | Drayton Valley-Devon | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
16. | Chestermere-Strathmore | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
17. | Camrose | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
18. | Brooks-Medicine Hat | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
19. | West Yellowhead | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
20. | Athabasca-Barrhead | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
21. | Livingston-Macleod | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
22. | Grande Prairie | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
23. | Airdrie East | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
24. | Peace River | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
25. | Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
26. | Calgary-South East | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
27. | Calgary-Lougheed | ![]() |
Likely UCP hold | >99% |
28. | Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin | ![]() |
Likely UCP hold | >99% |
29. | Red Deer-North | ![]() |
Likely UCP hold | >99% |
30. | Calgary-West | ![]() |
Likely UCP hold | >99% |
31. | Airdrie-Cochrane | ![]() |
Likely UCP hold | >99% |
32. | Calgary-Shaw | ![]() |
Likely UCP hold | >99% |
33. | Cypress-Medicine Hat | ![]() |
Likely UCP hold | >99% |
34. | Calgary-Hays | ![]() |
Likely UCP hold | >99% |
35. | Red Deer-South | ![]() |
Likely UCP hold | 98% |
36. | Calgary-Fish Creek | ![]() |
Likely UCP hold | 96% |
37. | Leduc-Beaumont | ![]() |
Likely UCP hold | 95% |
38. | Calgary-Peigan | ![]() |
Likely UCP hold | 94% |
39. | Calgary-Elbow | ![]() |
Likely UCP hold | 91% |
40. | Spruce Grove-Stony Plain | ![]() |
Likely UCP hold | 90% |
41. | Calgary-North | ![]() |
Leaning UCP hold | 78% |
42. | Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville | ![]() |
Leaning UCP hold | 78% |
43. | Calgary-North West | ![]() |
Leaning UCP hold | 76% |
44. | Calgary-Foothills | ![]() |
Leaning UCP hold | 74% |
45. | Calgary-Glenmore | ![]() |
Leaning UCP hold | 73% |
46. | Calgary-Bow | ![]() |
Leaning UCP hold | 72% |
47. | Calgary-Edgemont | ![]() |
Leaning UCP hold | 70% |
48. | Lesser Slave Lake | ![]() |
Leaning UCP hold | 70% |
49. | Calgary-Cross | ![]() |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 63% |
50. | Calgary-Acadia | ![]() |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 63% |
51. | Calgary-Beddington | ![]() |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 56% |
52. | Strathcona-Sherwood Park | ![]() |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 54% |
53. | Morinville-St. Albert | ![]() |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 40% |
54. | Calgary-East | ![]() |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 37% |
55. | Calgary-North East | ![]() |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 30% |
56. | Lethbridge-East | ![]() |
Leaning NDP gain | 27% |
57. | Banff-Kananaskis | ![]() |
Leaning NDP gain | 16% |
58. | Edmonton-South West | ![]() |
Leaning NDP gain | 14% |
59. | Calgary-Klein | ![]() |
Likely NDP gain | 10% |
60. | Sherwood Park | ![]() |
Likely NDP gain | 8% |
61. | Calgary-Varsity | ![]() |
Likely NDP gain | 7% |
62. | Calgary-Falconridge | ![]() |
Likely NDP gain | 5% |
63. | Calgary-Currie | ![]() |
Likely NDP gain | 4% |
64. | Lethbridge-West | ![]() |
Likely NDP hold | <1% |
65. | Edmonton-West Henday | ![]() |
Likely NDP hold | <1% |
Rank | Electoral districts | Projection |
---|---|---|
1. | Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre | Safe UCP hold |
2. | Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright | Safe UCP hold |
3. | Taber-Warner | Safe UCP hold |
4. | Drumheller-Stettler | Safe UCP hold |
5. | Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills | Safe UCP hold |
6. | Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche | Safe UCP hold |
7. | Grande Prairie-Wapiti | Safe UCP hold |
8. | Innisfail-Sylvan Lake | Safe UCP hold |
9. | Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo | Safe UCP hold |
10. | Lacombe-Ponoka | Safe UCP hold |
11. | Highwood | Safe UCP hold |
12. | Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul | Safe UCP hold |
13. | Central Peace-Notley | Safe UCP hold |
14. | Cardston-Siksika | Safe UCP hold |
15. | Drayton Valley-Devon | Safe UCP hold |
16. | Chestermere-Strathmore | Safe UCP hold |
17. | Camrose | Safe UCP hold |
18. | Brooks-Medicine Hat | Safe UCP hold |
19. | West Yellowhead | Safe UCP hold |
20. | Athabasca-Barrhead | Safe UCP hold |
21. | Livingston-Macleod | Safe UCP hold |
22. | Grande Prairie | Safe UCP hold |
23. | Airdrie East | Safe UCP hold |
24. | Peace River | Safe UCP hold |
25. | Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland | Safe UCP hold |
26. | Calgary-South East | Safe UCP hold |
27. | Calgary-Lougheed | Likely UCP hold |
28. | Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin | Likely UCP hold |
29. | Red Deer-North | Likely UCP hold |
30. | Calgary-West | Likely UCP hold |
31. | Airdrie-Cochrane | Likely UCP hold |
32. | Calgary-Shaw | Likely UCP hold |
33. | Cypress-Medicine Hat | Likely UCP hold |
34. | Calgary-Hays | Likely UCP hold |
35. | Red Deer-South | Likely UCP hold |
36. | Calgary-Fish Creek | Likely UCP hold |
37. | Leduc-Beaumont | Likely UCP hold |
38. | Calgary-Peigan | Likely UCP hold |
39. | Calgary-Elbow | Likely UCP hold |
40. | Spruce Grove-Stony Plain | Likely UCP hold |
41. | Calgary-North | Leaning UCP hold |
42. | Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville | Leaning UCP hold |
43. | Calgary-North West | Leaning UCP hold |
44. | Calgary-Foothills | Leaning UCP hold |
45. | Calgary-Glenmore | Leaning UCP hold |
46. | Calgary-Bow | Leaning UCP hold |
47. | Calgary-Edgemont | Leaning UCP hold |
48. | Lesser Slave Lake | Leaning UCP hold |
49. | Calgary-Cross | Toss up UCP/NDP |
50. | Calgary-Acadia | Toss up UCP/NDP |
51. | Calgary-Beddington | Toss up UCP/NDP |
52. | Strathcona-Sherwood Park | Toss up UCP/NDP |
53. | Morinville-St. Albert | Toss up UCP/NDP |
54. | Calgary-East | Toss up UCP/NDP |
55. | Calgary-North East | Toss up UCP/NDP |
56. | Lethbridge-East | Leaning NDP gain |
57. | Banff-Kananaskis | Leaning NDP gain |
58. | Edmonton-South West | Leaning NDP gain |
59. | Calgary-Klein | Likely NDP gain |
60. | Sherwood Park | Likely NDP gain |
61. | Calgary-Varsity | Likely NDP gain |
62. | Calgary-Falconridge | Likely NDP gain |
63. | Calgary-Currie | Likely NDP gain |
64. | Lethbridge-West | Likely NDP hold |
65. | Edmonton-West Henday | Likely NDP hold |