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Last update: March 14, 2021
Leader | Jason Kenney |
Popular vote in 2019 | 54.9% |
Current vote projection | 40.2% ± 5.7% |
Current number of MP's | 62 |
Current seat projection | 42 ± 13 |
Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the United Conservative Party
Rank | Electoral districts | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Drumheller-Stettler | UCP safe | >99% | |
2. | Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre | UCP safe | >99% | |
3. | Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills | UCP safe | >99% | |
4. | Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright | UCP safe | >99% | |
5. | Taber-Warner | UCP safe | >99% | |
6. | Lacombe-Ponoka | UCP safe | >99% | |
7. | Innisfail-Sylvan Lake | UCP safe | >99% | |
8. | Grande Prairie-Wapiti | UCP safe | >99% | |
9. | Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul | UCP safe | >99% | |
10. | Cardston-Siksika | UCP safe | >99% | |
11. | Highwood | UCP safe | >99% | |
12. | Chestermere-Strathmore | UCP safe | >99% | |
13. | Drayton Valley-Devon | UCP safe | >99% | |
14. | Central Peace-Notley | UCP safe | >99% | |
15. | Brooks-Medicine Hat | UCP safe | >99% | |
16. | Athabasca-Barrhead | UCP safe | >99% | |
17. | Camrose | UCP safe | >99% | |
18. | West Yellowhead | UCP safe | >99% | |
19. | Livingston-Macleod | UCP safe | >99% | |
20. | Airdrie East | UCP safe | >99% | |
21. | Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo | UCP likely | >99% | |
22. | Calgary-South East | UCP likely | >99% | |
23. | Peace River | UCP likely | 99% | |
24. | Grande Prairie | UCP likely | 98% | |
25. | Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland | UCP likely | 98% | |
26. | Calgary-Lougheed | UCP likely | 98% | |
27. | Calgary-West | UCP likely | 96% | |
28. | Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche | UCP likely | 96% | |
29. | Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin | UCP likely | 95% | |
30. | Calgary-Shaw | UCP likely | 95% | |
31. | Calgary-Hays | UCP likely | 95% | |
32. | Red Deer-North | UCP likely | 94% | |
33. | Airdrie-Cochrane | UCP likely | 94% | |
34. | Cypress-Medicine Hat | UCP likely | 92% | |
35. | Red Deer-South | UCP leaning | 76% | |
36. | Calgary-Fish Creek | UCP leaning | 76% | |
37. | Calgary-Elbow | UCP leaning | 72% | |
38. | Leduc-Beaumont | Toss up | 66% | |
39. | Lesser Slave Lake | ![]() |
Toss up | 64% |
40. | Spruce Grove-Stony Plain | Toss up | 62% | |
41. | Lethbridge-East | Toss up | 57% | |
42. | Calgary-Peigan | Toss up | 56% | |
43. | Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville | Toss up | 54% | |
44. | Strathcona-Sherwood Park | Toss up | 54% | |
45. | Morinville-St. Albert | Toss up | 51% | |
46. | Sherwood Park | NDP leaning | 29% | |
47. | Calgary-North | NDP leaning | 28% | |
48. | Calgary-North West | NDP leaning | 24% | |
49. | Calgary-Foothills | NDP leaning | 21% | |
50. | Calgary-Glenmore | NDP leaning | 19% | |
51. | Banff-Kananaskis | NDP leaning | 15% | |
52. | Edmonton-South West | NDP leaning | 11% | |
53. | Calgary-Edgemont | NDP leaning | 11% | |
54. | Calgary-Bow | NDP likely | 10% | |
55. | Calgary-North East | NDP likely | 8% | |
56. | Calgary-Varsity | NDP likely | 7% | |
57. | Calgary-Acadia | NDP likely | 5% | |
58. | Calgary-East | NDP likely | 5% | |
59. | Calgary-Cross | NDP likely | 5% | |
60. | Calgary-Beddington | NDP likely | 4% | |
61. | Calgary-Klein | NDP likely | 3% | |
62. | Calgary-Falconridge | NDP likely | <1% |