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Alberta

United Conservative Party





Last update: May 30, 2025

LeaderDanielle Smith
Popular vote in 202352.6%
Current vote projection55.6% ± 4.8%
Current number of MLA's48
Current seat projection61 [49-76]

Vote projection | May 30, 2025

45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 55% 56% 57% 58% 59% 60% 61% 62% 63% 64% 65% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 50.8% 2023 52.6% 55.6% ± 4.8% Max. 60.4% Probabilities % UCP

Seat projection | May 30, 2025

32 37 42 47 52 57 62 67 72 77 82 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Majority 44 seats Min. 49 2023 49 seats 61 Max. 76 Probabilities % UCP

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | United Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Drumheller-Stettler Safe UCP >99%
2. Central Peace-Notley Safe UCP >99%
3. Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills Safe UCP >99%
4. Taber-Warner Safe UCP >99%
5. Grande Prairie-Wapiti Safe UCP >99%
6. Chestermere-Strathmore Safe UCP >99%
7. Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul Safe UCP >99%
8. Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright Safe UCP >99%
9. Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock Safe UCP >99%
10. Drayton Valley-Devon Safe UCP >99%
11. Peace River Safe UCP >99%
12. Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche Safe UCP >99%
13. West Yellowhead Safe UCP >99%
14. Innisfail-Sylvan Lake Safe UCP >99%
15. Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre Safe UCP >99%
16. Cardston-Siksika Safe UCP >99%
17. Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland Safe UCP >99%
18. Highwood Safe UCP >99%
19. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin Safe UCP >99%
20. Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo Safe UCP >99%
21. Airdrie East Safe UCP >99%
22. Livingston-Macleod Safe UCP >99%
23. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain Safe UCP >99%
24. Lacombe-Ponoka Safe UCP >99%
25. Airdrie-Cochrane Safe UCP >99%
26. Leduc-Beaumont Safe UCP >99%
27. Brooks-Medicine Hat Safe UCP >99%
28. Calgary-South East Safe UCP >99%
29. Grande Prairie Safe UCP >99%
30. Camrose Safe UCP >99%
31. Calgary-Shaw Safe UCP >99%
32. Calgary-West Safe UCP >99%
33. Calgary-Peigan Safe UCP >99%
34. Strathcona-Sherwood Park Safe UCP >99%
35. Calgary-Lougheed Safe UCP >99%
36. Calgary-Hays Safe UCP >99%
37. Cypress-Medicine Hat Safe UCP >99%
38. Morinville-St. Albert Safe UCP >99%
39. Lesser Slave Lake Safe UCP >99%
40. Calgary-Fish Creek Safe UCP >99%
41. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville Likely UCP >99%
42. Red Deer-North Likely UCP 99%
43. Calgary-East Likely UCP 98%
44. Calgary-Cross Likely UCP 97%
45. Calgary-North West Likely UCP 96%
46. Calgary-Bow Likely UCP 96%
47. Calgary-Glenmore Likely UCP gain 95%
48. Red Deer-South Likely UCP 95%
49. Calgary-Acadia Likely UCP gain 95%
50. Calgary-North Likely UCP 94%
51. Sherwood Park Likely UCP gain 93%
52. Calgary-Foothills Likely UCP gain 93%
53. Calgary-Edgemont Likely UCP gain 90%
54. Calgary-Elbow Leaning UCP gain 85%
55. Calgary-Klein Leaning UCP gain 84%
56. Calgary-Beddington Leaning UCP gain 82%
57. Edmonton-Decore Leaning UCP gain 75%
58. Edmonton-South West Leaning UCP gain 73%
59. Edmonton-Castle Downs Toss up UCP/NDP 67%
60. Lethbridge-East Toss up UCP/NDP 61%
61. Calgary-North East Toss up UCP/NDP 57%
62. Edmonton-West Henday Toss up UCP/NDP 45%
63. Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview Toss up UCP/NDP 43%
64. Edmonton-South Toss up UCP/NDP 42%
65. St. Albert Toss up UCP/NDP 37%
66. Edmonton-Manning Toss up UCP/NDP 32%
67. Edmonton-North West Leaning NDP 28%
68. Calgary-Bhullar-McCall Leaning NDP 28%
69. Edmonton-McClung Leaning NDP 27%
70. Edmonton-Mill Woods Leaning NDP 27%
71. Banff-Kananaskis Leaning NDP 26%
72. Calgary-Currie Leaning NDP 25%
73. Calgary-Falconridge Leaning NDP 21%
74. Calgary-Varsity Leaning NDP 17%
75. Edmonton-Ellerslie Leaning NDP 17%
76. Edmonton-Whitemud Leaning NDP 17%
77. Edmonton-Meadows Leaning NDP 13%
78. Lethbridge-West Likely NDP 7%
79. Edmonton-Rutherford Likely NDP 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Drumheller-Stettler Safe UCP
2. Central Peace-Notley Safe UCP
3. Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills Safe UCP
4. Taber-Warner Safe UCP
5. Grande Prairie-Wapiti Safe UCP
6. Chestermere-Strathmore Safe UCP
7. Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul Safe UCP
8. Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright Safe UCP
9. Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock Safe UCP
10. Drayton Valley-Devon Safe UCP
11. Peace River Safe UCP
12. Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche Safe UCP
13. West Yellowhead Safe UCP
14. Innisfail-Sylvan Lake Safe UCP
15. Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre Safe UCP
16. Cardston-Siksika Safe UCP
17. Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland Safe UCP
18. Highwood Safe UCP
19. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin Safe UCP
20. Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo Safe UCP
21. Airdrie East Safe UCP
22. Livingston-Macleod Safe UCP
23. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain Safe UCP
24. Lacombe-Ponoka Safe UCP
25. Airdrie-Cochrane Safe UCP
26. Leduc-Beaumont Safe UCP
27. Brooks-Medicine Hat Safe UCP
28. Calgary-South East Safe UCP
29. Grande Prairie Safe UCP
30. Camrose Safe UCP
31. Calgary-Shaw Safe UCP
32. Calgary-West Safe UCP
33. Calgary-Peigan Safe UCP
34. Strathcona-Sherwood Park Safe UCP
35. Calgary-Lougheed Safe UCP
36. Calgary-Hays Safe UCP
37. Cypress-Medicine Hat Safe UCP
38. Morinville-St. Albert Safe UCP
39. Lesser Slave Lake Safe UCP
40. Calgary-Fish Creek Safe UCP
41. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville Likely UCP
42. Red Deer-North Likely UCP
43. Calgary-East Likely UCP
44. Calgary-Cross Likely UCP
45. Calgary-North West Likely UCP
46. Calgary-Bow Likely UCP
47. Calgary-Glenmore Likely UCP gain
48. Red Deer-South Likely UCP
49. Calgary-Acadia Likely UCP gain
50. Calgary-North Likely UCP
51. Sherwood Park Likely UCP gain
52. Calgary-Foothills Likely UCP gain
53. Calgary-Edgemont Likely UCP gain
54. Calgary-Elbow Leaning UCP gain
55. Calgary-Klein Leaning UCP gain
56. Calgary-Beddington Leaning UCP gain
57. Edmonton-Decore Leaning UCP gain
58. Edmonton-South West Leaning UCP gain
59. Edmonton-Castle Downs Toss up UCP/NDP
60. Lethbridge-East Toss up UCP/NDP
61. Calgary-North East Toss up UCP/NDP
62. Edmonton-West Henday Toss up UCP/NDP
63. Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview Toss up UCP/NDP
64. Edmonton-South Toss up UCP/NDP
65. St. Albert Toss up UCP/NDP
66. Edmonton-Manning Toss up UCP/NDP
67. Edmonton-North West Leaning NDP
68. Calgary-Bhullar-McCall Leaning NDP
69. Edmonton-McClung Leaning NDP
70. Edmonton-Mill Woods Leaning NDP
71. Banff-Kananaskis Leaning NDP
72. Calgary-Currie Leaning NDP
73. Calgary-Falconridge Leaning NDP
74. Calgary-Varsity Leaning NDP
75. Edmonton-Ellerslie Leaning NDP
76. Edmonton-Whitemud Leaning NDP
77. Edmonton-Meadows Leaning NDP
78. Lethbridge-West Likely NDP
79. Edmonton-Rutherford Likely NDP