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Alberta

United Conservative Party





Last update: November 2, 2025

LeaderDanielle Smith
Popular vote in 202352.6%
Current vote projection52.1% ± 4.9%
Current number of MLA's48
Current seat projection59 [44-72]

Vote projection | November 2, 2025

41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 55% 56% 57% 58% 59% 60% 61% 62% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 47.2% 52.1% ± 4.9% 2023 52.6% Max. 57.0% Probabilities % UCP

Seat projection | November 2, 2025

27 32 37 42 47 52 57 62 67 72 77 82 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 44 Majority 44 seats 2023 49 seats 59 Max. 72 Probabilities % UCP

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | United Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Drumheller-Stettler Safe UCP >99%
2. Central Peace-Notley Safe UCP >99%
3. Chestermere-Strathmore Safe UCP >99%
4. Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre Safe UCP >99%
5. Cardston-Siksika Safe UCP >99%
6. Grande Prairie-Wapiti Safe UCP >99%
7. Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills Safe UCP >99%
8. Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul Safe UCP >99%
9. Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright Safe UCP >99%
10. Drayton Valley-Devon Safe UCP >99%
11. Peace River Safe UCP >99%
12. Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock Safe UCP >99%
13. Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche Safe UCP >99%
14. Innisfail-Sylvan Lake Safe UCP >99%
15. Taber-Warner Safe UCP >99%
16. Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo Safe UCP >99%
17. West Yellowhead Safe UCP >99%
18. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin Safe UCP >99%
19. Airdrie East Safe UCP >99%
20. Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland Safe UCP >99%
21. Highwood Safe UCP >99%
22. Airdrie-Cochrane Safe UCP >99%
23. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain Safe UCP >99%
24. Calgary-South East Safe UCP >99%
25. Livingston-Macleod Safe UCP >99%
26. Camrose Safe UCP >99%
27. Brooks-Medicine Hat Safe UCP >99%
28. Lacombe-Ponoka Safe UCP >99%
29. Leduc-Beaumont Safe UCP >99%
30. Grande Prairie Safe UCP >99%
31. Strathcona-Sherwood Park Safe UCP >99%
32. Calgary-Shaw Safe UCP >99%
33. Calgary-Lougheed Safe UCP >99%
34. Calgary-West Safe UCP >99%
35. Calgary-Hays Safe UCP >99%
36. Calgary-Peigan Safe UCP >99%
37. Cypress-Medicine Hat Likely UCP >99%
38. Morinville-St. Albert Likely UCP >99%
39. Lesser Slave Lake Likely UCP >99%
40. Calgary-Fish Creek Likely UCP 99%
41. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville Likely UCP 99%
42. Red Deer-North Likely UCP 96%
43. Calgary-East Likely UCP 95%
44. Calgary-Cross Likely UCP 93%
45. Red Deer-South Leaning UCP 88%
46. Calgary-North West Leaning UCP 87%
47. Calgary-North Leaning UCP 87%
48. Calgary-Bow Leaning UCP 87%
49. Calgary-Glenmore Leaning UCP gain 86%
50. Calgary-Acadia Leaning UCP gain 86%
51. Sherwood Park Leaning UCP gain 84%
52. Calgary-Foothills Leaning UCP gain 82%
53. Calgary-Edgemont Leaning UCP gain 76%
54. Calgary-Klein Toss up UCP/NDP 68%
55. Calgary-Elbow Toss up UCP/NDP 63%
56. Calgary-Beddington Toss up UCP/NDP 62%
57. Edmonton-Decore Toss up UCP/NDP 60%
58. Edmonton-South West Toss up UCP/NDP 57%
59. Edmonton-Castle Downs Toss up UCP/NDP 51%
60. Lethbridge-East Toss up UCP/NDP 46%
61. Calgary-North East Toss up UCP/NDP 36%
62. Edmonton-West Henday Leaning NDP 29%
63. Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview Leaning NDP 28%
64. Edmonton-South Leaning NDP 25%
65. St. Albert Leaning NDP 22%
66. Edmonton-Manning Leaning NDP 18%
67. Edmonton-North West Leaning NDP 16%
68. Edmonton-McClung Leaning NDP 15%
69. Edmonton-Mill Woods Leaning NDP 15%
70. Calgary-Bhullar-McCall Leaning NDP 15%
71. Banff-Kananaskis Leaning NDP 14%
72. Calgary-Currie Likely NDP 10%
73. Calgary-Falconridge Likely NDP 10%
74. Edmonton-Ellerslie Likely NDP 8%
75. Edmonton-Whitemud Likely NDP 8%
76. Calgary-Varsity Likely NDP 6%
77. Edmonton-Meadows Likely NDP 6%
78. Lethbridge-West Likely NDP 3%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Drumheller-Stettler Safe UCP
2. Central Peace-Notley Safe UCP
3. Chestermere-Strathmore Safe UCP
4. Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre Safe UCP
5. Cardston-Siksika Safe UCP
6. Grande Prairie-Wapiti Safe UCP
7. Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills Safe UCP
8. Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul Safe UCP
9. Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright Safe UCP
10. Drayton Valley-Devon Safe UCP
11. Peace River Safe UCP
12. Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock Safe UCP
13. Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche Safe UCP
14. Innisfail-Sylvan Lake Safe UCP
15. Taber-Warner Safe UCP
16. Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo Safe UCP
17. West Yellowhead Safe UCP
18. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin Safe UCP
19. Airdrie East Safe UCP
20. Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland Safe UCP
21. Highwood Safe UCP
22. Airdrie-Cochrane Safe UCP
23. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain Safe UCP
24. Calgary-South East Safe UCP
25. Livingston-Macleod Safe UCP
26. Camrose Safe UCP
27. Brooks-Medicine Hat Safe UCP
28. Lacombe-Ponoka Safe UCP
29. Leduc-Beaumont Safe UCP
30. Grande Prairie Safe UCP
31. Strathcona-Sherwood Park Safe UCP
32. Calgary-Shaw Safe UCP
33. Calgary-Lougheed Safe UCP
34. Calgary-West Safe UCP
35. Calgary-Hays Safe UCP
36. Calgary-Peigan Safe UCP
37. Cypress-Medicine Hat Likely UCP
38. Morinville-St. Albert Likely UCP
39. Lesser Slave Lake Likely UCP
40. Calgary-Fish Creek Likely UCP
41. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville Likely UCP
42. Red Deer-North Likely UCP
43. Calgary-East Likely UCP
44. Calgary-Cross Likely UCP
45. Red Deer-South Leaning UCP
46. Calgary-North West Leaning UCP
47. Calgary-North Leaning UCP
48. Calgary-Bow Leaning UCP
49. Calgary-Glenmore Leaning UCP gain
50. Calgary-Acadia Leaning UCP gain
51. Sherwood Park Leaning UCP gain
52. Calgary-Foothills Leaning UCP gain
53. Calgary-Edgemont Leaning UCP gain
54. Calgary-Klein Toss up UCP/NDP
55. Calgary-Elbow Toss up UCP/NDP
56. Calgary-Beddington Toss up UCP/NDP
57. Edmonton-Decore Toss up UCP/NDP
58. Edmonton-South West Toss up UCP/NDP
59. Edmonton-Castle Downs Toss up UCP/NDP
60. Lethbridge-East Toss up UCP/NDP
61. Calgary-North East Toss up UCP/NDP
62. Edmonton-West Henday Leaning NDP
63. Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview Leaning NDP
64. Edmonton-South Leaning NDP
65. St. Albert Leaning NDP
66. Edmonton-Manning Leaning NDP
67. Edmonton-North West Leaning NDP
68. Edmonton-McClung Leaning NDP
69. Edmonton-Mill Woods Leaning NDP
70. Calgary-Bhullar-McCall Leaning NDP
71. Banff-Kananaskis Leaning NDP
72. Calgary-Currie Likely NDP
73. Calgary-Falconridge Likely NDP
74. Edmonton-Ellerslie Likely NDP
75. Edmonton-Whitemud Likely NDP
76. Calgary-Varsity Likely NDP
77. Edmonton-Meadows Likely NDP
78. Lethbridge-West Likely NDP