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Last update: October 24, 2021
| Leader | Jason Kenney |
| Popular vote in 2019 | 54.9% |
| Current vote projection | 32.2% ± 5.5% |
| Current number of MLA's | 61 |
| Current seat projection | 27 [16-42] |
Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the United Conservative Party
| Rank | Electoral districts | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Drumheller-Stettler | |
UCP safe | >99% |
| 2. | Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre | |
UCP safe | >99% |
| 3. | Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright | |
UCP safe | >99% |
| 4. | Taber-Warner | |
UCP safe | >99% |
| 5. | Innisfail-Sylvan Lake | |
UCP safe | >99% |
| 6. | Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills | |
UCP safe | >99% |
| 7. | Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul | |
UCP safe | >99% |
| 8. | Grande Prairie-Wapiti | |
UCP safe | >99% |
| 9. | Lacombe-Ponoka | |
UCP safe | >99% |
| 10. | Cardston-Siksika | |
UCP likely | >99% |
| 11. | Highwood | |
UCP likely | 99% |
| 12. | Chestermere-Strathmore | |
UCP likely | 99% |
| 13. | Drayton Valley-Devon | |
UCP likely | 99% |
| 14. | Central Peace-Notley |  |
UCP likely | 98% |
| 15. | Athabasca-Barrhead | |
UCP likely | 95% |
| 16. | Camrose | |
UCP likely | 94% |
| 17. | Brooks-Medicine Hat | |
UCP likely | 93% |
| 18. | Livingston-Macleod | |
UCP likely | 92% |
| 19. | Airdrie East | |
UCP likely | 91% |
| 20. | West Yellowhead | |
UCP leaning | 90% |
| 21. | Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo | |
UCP leaning | 88% |
| 22. | Peace River | |
UCP leaning | 80% |
| 23. | Calgary-South East | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 66% |
| 24. | Grande Prairie | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 66% |
| 25. | Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 64% |
| 26. | Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 57% |
| 27. | Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 54% |
| 28. | Airdrie-Cochrane | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 50% |
| 29. | Red Deer-North | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 49% |
| 30. | Cypress-Medicine Hat | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 48% |
| 31. | Calgary-West | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 48% |
| 32. | Calgary-Lougheed | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 43% |
| 33. | Calgary-Shaw | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 42% |
| 34. | Calgary-Hays | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 34% |
| 35. | Red Deer-South | |
NDP leaning | 26% |
| 36. | Calgary-Fish Creek | |
NDP leaning | 20% |
| 37. | Calgary-Elbow | |
NDP leaning | 16% |
| 38. | Calgary-Peigan | |
NDP leaning | 12% |
| 39. | Spruce Grove-Stony Plain | |
NDP leaning | 12% |
| 40. | Leduc-Beaumont | |
NDP likely | 9% |
| 41. | Calgary-North | |
NDP likely | 4% |
| 42. | Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville | |
NDP likely | 4% |
| 43. | Lesser Slave Lake | |
NDP likely | 3% |
| 44. | Strathcona-Sherwood Park | |
NDP likely | 2% |
| 45. | Calgary-North West | |
NDP likely | 2% |
| 46. | Calgary-Foothills | |
NDP likely | 1% |
| 47. | Calgary-Glenmore | |
NDP likely | 1% |