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United Conservative Party

Latest update: February 8, 2026
LeaderDanielle Smith
Popular vote in 202352.6%
Current vote projection49.8% ± 5.0%
Current number of MLA's47
Current seat projection53 [39-66]

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Vote projection | February 8, 2026

39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 55% 56% 57% 58% 59% 60% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 44.8% ▼ 49.8% ± 5.0% ▼ 2023 52.6% Max. 54.8% ▼ Probabilities % UCP

Seat projection | February 8, 2026

22 27 32 37 42 47 52 57 62 67 72 77 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 39 ▼ Majority 44 seats 2023 49 seats 53 ▼ Max. 66 ▼ Probabilities % UCP

List of favourable electoral districts | United Conservative Party



Electoral districts Current party Projection
1.
Drumheller-Stettler
Nate Horner
 C Safe UCP
2.
Central Peace-Notley
Todd Loewen
 C Safe UCP
3.
Chestermere-Strathmore
Chantelle De Jonge
 C Safe UCP
4.
Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre
Jason Nixon
 C Safe UCP
5.
Cardston-Siksika
Joseph Schow
 C Safe UCP
6.
Grande Prairie-Wapiti
Ron Wiebe
 C Safe UCP
7.
Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills
Tara Sawyer
 C Safe UCP
8.
Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul
Scott Cyr
 C Safe UCP
9.
Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright
Garth Rowswell
 C Safe UCP
10.
Drayton Valley-Devon
Andrew Boitchenko
 C Safe UCP
11.
Peace River
Dan Williams
 C Safe UCP
12.
Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock
Glenn Van Dijken
 C Safe UCP
13.
Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche
Brian Jean
 C Safe UCP
14.
Innisfail-Sylvan Lake
Devin Dreeshen
 C Safe UCP
15.
Taber-Warner
Grant Hunter
 C Safe UCP
16.
Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo
Tany Yao
 C Safe UCP
17.
West Yellowhead
Martin Long
 C Safe UCP
18.
Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin
Rick Wilson
 C Safe UCP
19.
Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland
Shane Getson
 C Safe UCP
20.
Highwood
R.J. Sigurdson
 C Safe UCP
21.
Airdrie-Cochrane
Peter Guthrie [Elected as UCP]
 PT Safe UCP
22.
Livingston-Macleod
Chelsae Petrovic
 C Safe UCP
23.
Camrose
Jackie Lovely
 C Safe UCP
24.
Lacombe-Ponoka
Jennifer Johnson*
*dropped by UCP but still on ballot
 C Safe UCP
25.
Brooks-Medicine Hat
Danielle Smith
 C Safe UCP
26.
Airdrie East
Angela Pitt
 C Safe UCP
27.
Spruce Grove-Stony Plain
Searle Turton
 C Safe UCP
28.
Leduc-Beaumont
Brandon Lunty
 C Safe UCP
29.
Calgary-South East
Matt Jones
 C Safe UCP
30.
Grande Prairie
Nolan Dyck
 C Likely UCP
31.
Calgary-West
Mike Ellis
 C Likely UCP
32.
Strathcona-Sherwood Park
Nate Glubish
 C Likely UCP
33.
Calgary-Lougheed
Eric Bouchard
 C Likely UCP
34.
Calgary-Shaw
Rebecca Schulz
 C Likely UCP
35.
Calgary-Hays
Richard William (Ric) Mciver
 C Likely UCP
36.
Lesser Slave Lake
Scott Sinclair [Elected as UCP]
 I Likely UCP
37.
Cypress-Medicine Hat
Justin Wright
 C Likely UCP
38.
Calgary-Peigan
Tanya Fir
 C Likely UCP
39.
Morinville-St. Albert
Dale Nally
 C Likely UCP
40.
Calgary-Fish Creek
Myles Mcdougall
 C Likely UCP
41.
Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville
Jackie Armstrong-Homeniuk
 C Likely UCP
42.
Red Deer-North
Adriana Lagrange
 C Leaning UCP
43.
Calgary-East
Peter Singh
 C Leaning UCP
44.
Calgary-Cross
Mickey Amery
 C Leaning UCP
45.
Red Deer-South
Jason Stephan
 C Toss up UCP/NDP
46.
Calgary-North
Muhammad Yaseen
 C Toss up UCP/NDP
47.
Calgary-North West
Rajan Sawhney
 C Toss up UCP/NDP
48.
Calgary-Bow
Demetrios Nicolaides
 C Toss up UCP/NDP
49.
Calgary-Acadia
Diana Batten
 N Toss up UCP/NDP
50.
Calgary-Glenmore
Nagwan Al-Guneid
 N Toss up UCP/NDP
51.
Sherwood Park
Kyle Kasawski
 N Toss up UCP/NDP
52.
Calgary-Foothills
Court Ellingson
 N Toss up UCP/NDP
53.
Calgary-Edgemont
Julia Hayter
 N Toss up UCP/NDP
54.
Calgary-Klein
Lizette Tejada
 N Toss up UCP/NDP
55.
Calgary-Elbow
Samir Kayande
 N Toss up UCP/NDP
56.
Calgary-Beddington
Amanda Chapman
 N Toss up UCP/NDP
57.
Edmonton-Decore
Sharif Haji
 N Toss up UCP/NDP
58.
Edmonton-South West
Nathan Ip
 N Leaning NDP
59.
Edmonton-Castle Downs
Nicole Goehring
 N Leaning NDP
60.
Lethbridge-East
Nathan Neudorf
 C Leaning NDP gain
61.
Calgary-North East
Gurinder Brar
 N Leaning NDP
62.
Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview
Peggy Wright
 N Leaning NDP
63.
Edmonton-West Henday
Brooks Arcand-Paul
 N Leaning NDP
64.
Edmonton-South
Rhiannon Hoyle
 N Likely NDP
65.
St. Albert
Marie Renaud
 N Likely NDP
66.
Edmonton-Manning
Heather Sweet
 N Likely NDP
67.
Edmonton-North West
David Eggen
 N Likely NDP
68.
Calgary-Bhullar-McCall
Irfan Sabir
 N Likely NDP
69.
Edmonton-McClung
Lorne Dach
 N Likely NDP
70.
Edmonton-Mill Woods
Christina Gray
 N Likely NDP
71.
Banff-Kananaskis
Sarah Elmeligi
 N Likely NDP
72.
Calgary-Falconridge
Parmeet Singh Boparai
 N Likely NDP
73.
Calgary-Currie
Janet Eremenko
 N Likely NDP
74.
Edmonton-Ellerslie
Gurtej Singh Brar
 N Likely NDP
75.
Edmonton-Whitemud
Rakhi Pancholi
 N Likely NDP
76.
Edmonton-Meadows
Jasvir Deol
 N Likely NDP
77.
Calgary-Varsity
Luanne Metz
 N Likely NDP
78.
Lethbridge-West
Shannon Phillips
 N Likely NDP
79.
Edmonton-Rutherford
Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse
 N Safe NDP