United Conservative Party

Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the United Conservative Party

Rank	Electoral districts	Current party	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre		Safe UCP hold	>99%
2.	Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright		Safe UCP hold	>99%
3.	Drumheller-Stettler		Safe UCP hold	>99%
4.	Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills		Safe UCP hold	>99%
5.	Taber-Warner		Safe UCP hold	>99%
6.	Innisfail-Sylvan Lake		Safe UCP hold	>99%
7.	Grande Prairie-Wapiti		Safe UCP hold	>99%
8.	Lacombe-Ponoka		Safe UCP hold	>99%
9.	Highwood		Safe UCP hold	>99%
10.	Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul		Safe UCP hold	>99%
11.	Cardston-Siksika		Safe UCP hold	>99%
12.	Chestermere-Strathmore		Safe UCP hold	>99%
13.	Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche		Safe UCP hold	>99%
14.	Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo		Safe UCP hold	>99%
15.	Drayton Valley-Devon		Safe UCP hold	>99%
16.	Central Peace-Notley		Safe UCP hold	>99%
17.	Calgary-South East		Safe UCP hold	>99%
18.	Athabasca-Barrhead		Safe UCP hold	>99%
19.	Camrose		Safe UCP hold	>99%
20.	Livingston-Macleod		Safe UCP hold	>99%
21.	Brooks-Medicine Hat		Safe UCP hold	>99%
22.	Airdrie East		Safe UCP hold	>99%
23.	Grande Prairie		Safe UCP hold	>99%
24.	West Yellowhead		Likely UCP hold	>99%
25.	Peace River		Likely UCP hold	>99%
26.	Calgary-Lougheed		Likely UCP hold	>99%
27.	Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland		Likely UCP hold	>99%
28.	Calgary-West		Likely UCP hold	99%
29.	Calgary-Shaw		Likely UCP hold	99%
30.	Calgary-Hays		Likely UCP hold	99%
31.	Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin		Likely UCP hold	97%
32.	Airdrie-Cochrane		Likely UCP hold	96%
33.	Red Deer-North		Likely UCP hold	96%
34.	Cypress-Medicine Hat		Likely UCP hold	96%
35.	Calgary-Fish Creek		Likely UCP hold	94%
36.	Calgary-Peigan		Likely UCP hold	91%
37.	Red Deer-South		Leaning UCP hold	88%
38.	Calgary-Elbow		Leaning UCP hold	88%
39.	Leduc-Beaumont		Leaning UCP hold	77%
40.	Calgary-North		Leaning UCP hold	73%
41.	Calgary-North West		Leaning UCP hold	71%
42.	Calgary-Foothills		Toss up UCP/NDP	68%
43.	Calgary-Glenmore		Toss up UCP/NDP	67%
44.	Calgary-Bow		Toss up UCP/NDP	67%
45.	Lesser Slave Lake		Toss up UCP/NDP	65%
46.	Calgary-Edgemont		Toss up UCP/NDP	65%
47.	Spruce Grove-Stony Plain		Toss up UCP/NDP	65%
48.	Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville		Toss up UCP/NDP	61%
49.	Calgary-Cross		Toss up UCP/NDP	57%
50.	Calgary-Acadia		Toss up UCP/NDP	57%
51.	Calgary-Beddington		Toss up UCP/NDP	50%
52.	Calgary-East		Toss up UCP/NDP	48%
53.	Strathcona-Sherwood Park		Toss up UCP/NDP	45%
54.	Edmonton-South West		Toss up UCP/NDP	44%
55.	Morinville-St. Albert		Toss up UCP/NDP	42%
56.	Calgary-North East		Toss up UCP/NDP	37%
57.	Calgary-Klein		Leaning NDP gain	25%
58.	Calgary-Currie		Leaning NDP gain	23%
59.	Lethbridge-East		Leaning NDP gain	20%
60.	Banff-Kananaskis		Leaning NDP gain	18%
61.	Sherwood Park		Leaning NDP gain	14%
62.	Calgary-Varsity		Leaning NDP gain	13%
63.	Calgary-Falconridge		Likely NDP gain	8%
64.	Edmonton-West Henday		Likely NDP hold	5%
65.	Edmonton-South		Likely NDP hold	4%
66.	St. Albert		Likely NDP hold	3%
67.	Edmonton-Decore		Likely NDP hold	1%
68.	Edmonton-McClung		Likely NDP hold	<1%