United Conservative Party

Last update: January 29, 2023
Leader | Danielle Smith |
Popular vote in 2019 | 54.9% |
Current vote projection | 45.8% ± 6.4% |
Current number of MLA's | 59 |
Current seat projection | 45 [37-59] |
Vote projection | January 29, 2023
Seat projection | January 29, 2023
Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | United Conservative Party
Rank | Electoral districts | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
2. | Drumheller-Stettler | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
3. | Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
4. | Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
5. | Taber-Warner | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
6. | Innisfail-Sylvan Lake | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
7. | Grande Prairie-Wapiti | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
8. | Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
9. | Lacombe-Ponoka | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
10. | Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
11. | Cardston-Siksika | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
12. | Highwood | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
13. | Chestermere-Strathmore | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
14. | Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
15. | Drayton Valley-Devon | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
16. | Camrose | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
17. | Grande Prairie | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
18. | Livingston-Macleod | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
19. | West Yellowhead | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
20. | Brooks-Medicine Hat | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
21. | Central Peace-Notley | ![]() |
Safe UCP hold | >99% |
22. | Athabasca-Barrhead | ![]() |
Likely UCP hold | >99% |
23. | Calgary-South East | ![]() |
Likely UCP hold | >99% |
24. | Peace River | ![]() |
Likely UCP hold | >99% |
25. | Leduc-Beaumont | ![]() |
Likely UCP hold | >99% |
26. | Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland | ![]() |
Likely UCP hold | >99% |
27. | Airdrie East | ![]() |
Likely UCP hold | 99% |
28. | Calgary-Lougheed | ![]() |
Likely UCP hold | 98% |
29. | Calgary-West | ![]() |
Likely UCP hold | 98% |
30. | Calgary-Shaw | ![]() |
Likely UCP hold | 97% |
31. | Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin | ![]() |
Likely UCP hold | 97% |
32. | Calgary-Hays | ![]() |
Likely UCP hold | 97% |
33. | Red Deer-North | ![]() |
Likely UCP hold | 96% |
34. | Cypress-Medicine Hat | ![]() |
Likely UCP hold | 96% |
35. | Airdrie-Cochrane | ![]() |
Likely UCP hold | 96% |
36. | Strathcona-Sherwood Park | ![]() |
Likely UCP hold | 93% |
37. | Morinville-St. Albert | ![]() |
Likely UCP hold | 92% |
38. | Red Deer-South | ![]() |
Leaning UCP hold | 89% |
39. | Spruce Grove-Stony Plain | ![]() |
Leaning UCP hold | 87% |
40. | Lesser Slave Lake | ![]() |
Leaning UCP hold | 86% |
41. | Calgary-Fish Creek | ![]() |
Leaning UCP hold | 80% |
42. | Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville | ![]() |
Leaning UCP hold | 78% |
43. | Calgary-Peigan | ![]() |
Leaning UCP hold | 72% |
44. | Calgary-Foothills | ![]() |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 64% |
45. | Calgary-North | ![]() |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 50% |
46. | Calgary-North West | ![]() |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 50% |
47. | Calgary-Glenmore | ![]() |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 50% |
48. | Lethbridge-East | ![]() |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 49% |
49. | Calgary-Elbow | ![]() |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 45% |
50. | Calgary-Bow | ![]() |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 43% |
51. | Calgary-Edgemont | ![]() |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 38% |
52. | Calgary-Cross | ![]() |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 35% |
53. | Sherwood Park | ![]() |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 32% |
54. | Calgary-East | ![]() |
Leaning NDP gain | 27% |
55. | Calgary-Beddington | ![]() |
Leaning NDP gain | 26% |
56. | Calgary-Acadia | ![]() |
Leaning NDP gain | 24% |
57. | Banff-Kananaskis | ![]() |
Leaning NDP gain | 24% |
58. | Edmonton-South West | ![]() |
Leaning NDP gain | 23% |
59. | Calgary-North East | ![]() |
Leaning NDP gain | 18% |
60. | Calgary-Klein | ![]() |
Leaning NDP gain | 13% |
61. | Calgary-Currie | ![]() |
Likely NDP gain | 9% |
62. | St. Albert | Likely NDP hold | 8% | |
63. | Edmonton-West Henday | Likely NDP hold | 5% | |
64. | Calgary-Varsity | ![]() |
Likely NDP gain | 4% |
65. | Calgary-Falconridge | ![]() |
Likely NDP gain | 3% |
66. | Edmonton-South | Likely NDP hold | 2% | |
67. | Edmonton-McClung | Likely NDP hold | 1% | |
68. | Edmonton-Decore | Likely NDP hold | 1% |
Rank | Electoral districts | Projection |
---|---|---|
1. | Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre | Safe UCP hold |
2. | Drumheller-Stettler | Safe UCP hold |
3. | Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright | Safe UCP hold |
4. | Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills | Safe UCP hold |
5. | Taber-Warner | Safe UCP hold |
6. | Innisfail-Sylvan Lake | Safe UCP hold |
7. | Grande Prairie-Wapiti | Safe UCP hold |
8. | Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul | Safe UCP hold |
9. | Lacombe-Ponoka | Safe UCP hold |
10. | Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche | Safe UCP hold |
11. | Cardston-Siksika | Safe UCP hold |
12. | Highwood | Safe UCP hold |
13. | Chestermere-Strathmore | Safe UCP hold |
14. | Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo | Safe UCP hold |
15. | Drayton Valley-Devon | Safe UCP hold |
16. | Camrose | Safe UCP hold |
17. | Grande Prairie | Safe UCP hold |
18. | Livingston-Macleod | Safe UCP hold |
19. | West Yellowhead | Safe UCP hold |
20. | Brooks-Medicine Hat | Safe UCP hold |
21. | Central Peace-Notley | Safe UCP hold |
22. | Athabasca-Barrhead | Likely UCP hold |
23. | Calgary-South East | Likely UCP hold |
24. | Peace River | Likely UCP hold |
25. | Leduc-Beaumont | Likely UCP hold |
26. | Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland | Likely UCP hold |
27. | Airdrie East | Likely UCP hold |
28. | Calgary-Lougheed | Likely UCP hold |
29. | Calgary-West | Likely UCP hold |
30. | Calgary-Shaw | Likely UCP hold |
31. | Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin | Likely UCP hold |
32. | Calgary-Hays | Likely UCP hold |
33. | Red Deer-North | Likely UCP hold |
34. | Cypress-Medicine Hat | Likely UCP hold |
35. | Airdrie-Cochrane | Likely UCP hold |
36. | Strathcona-Sherwood Park | Likely UCP hold |
37. | Morinville-St. Albert | Likely UCP hold |
38. | Red Deer-South | Leaning UCP hold |
39. | Spruce Grove-Stony Plain | Leaning UCP hold |
40. | Lesser Slave Lake | Leaning UCP hold |
41. | Calgary-Fish Creek | Leaning UCP hold |
42. | Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville | Leaning UCP hold |
43. | Calgary-Peigan | Leaning UCP hold |
44. | Calgary-Foothills | Toss up UCP/NDP |
45. | Calgary-North | Toss up UCP/NDP |
46. | Calgary-North West | Toss up UCP/NDP |
47. | Calgary-Glenmore | Toss up UCP/NDP |
48. | Lethbridge-East | Toss up UCP/NDP |
49. | Calgary-Elbow | Toss up UCP/NDP |
50. | Calgary-Bow | Toss up UCP/NDP |
51. | Calgary-Edgemont | Toss up UCP/NDP |
52. | Calgary-Cross | Toss up UCP/NDP |
53. | Sherwood Park | Toss up UCP/NDP |
54. | Calgary-East | Leaning NDP gain |
55. | Calgary-Beddington | Leaning NDP gain |
56. | Calgary-Acadia | Leaning NDP gain |
57. | Banff-Kananaskis | Leaning NDP gain |
58. | Edmonton-South West | Leaning NDP gain |
59. | Calgary-North East | Leaning NDP gain |
60. | Calgary-Klein | Leaning NDP gain |
61. | Calgary-Currie | Likely NDP gain |
62. | St. Albert | Likely NDP hold |
63. | Edmonton-West Henday | Likely NDP hold |
64. | Calgary-Varsity | Likely NDP gain |
65. | Calgary-Falconridge | Likely NDP gain |
66. | Edmonton-South | Likely NDP hold |
67. | Edmonton-McClung | Likely NDP hold |
68. | Edmonton-Decore | Likely NDP hold |