338Canada Alberta - United Conservative Party





Last update: June 15, 2021

LeaderJason Kenney
Popular vote in 201954.9%
Current vote projection34.3% ± 5.4%
Current number of MP's61
Current seat projection38 ± 12



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the United Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Lacombe-Ponoka UCP safe >99%
2. Grande Prairie-Wapiti UCP safe >99%
3. Calgary-South East UCP safe >99%
4. Drumheller-Stettler UCP safe >99%
5. Taber-Warner UCP likely >99%
6. Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul UCP likely >99%
7. Highwood UCP likely >99%
8. Central Peace-Notley UCP likely 99%
9. Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright UCP likely 99%
10. Athabasca-Barrhead UCP likely 99%
11. West Yellowhead UCP likely 99%
12. Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo UCP likely 99%
13. Innisfail-Sylvan Lake UCP likely 99%
14. Livingston-Macleod UCP likely 99%
15. Camrose UCP likely 98%
16. Cardston-Siksika UCP likely 98%
17. Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre UCP likely 98%
18. Calgary-West UCP likely 97%
19. Peace River UCP likely 97%
20. Calgary-Hays UCP likely 97%
21. Calgary-Shaw UCP likely 96%
22. Calgary-Lougheed UCP likely 96%
23. Brooks-Medicine Hat UCP likely 96%
24. Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland UCP likely 94%
25. Drayton Valley-Devon UCP likely 94%
26. Grande Prairie UCP likely 93%
27. Airdrie East UCP likely 92%
28. Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills UCP likely 90%
29. Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche UCP leaning 89%
30. Chestermere-Strathmore UCP leaning 86%
31. Cypress-Medicine Hat UCP leaning 83%
32. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin UCP leaning 83%
33. Calgary-Elbow UCP leaning 83%
34. Red Deer-North UCP leaning 83%
35. Airdrie-Cochrane UCP leaning 82%
36. Calgary-Fish Creek UCP leaning 74%
37. Calgary-Peigan Toss up 58%
38. Red Deer-South Toss up 55%
39. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain Toss up 44%
40. Calgary-North Toss up 34%
41. Leduc-Beaumont NDP leaning 28%
42. Calgary-North West NDP leaning 22%
43. Calgary-Foothills NDP leaning 21%
44. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville NDP leaning 19%
45. Calgary-Glenmore NDP leaning 19%
46. Lesser Slave Lake NDP leaning 15%
47. Lethbridge-East NDP likely 9%
48. Edmonton-South West NDP likely 8%
49. Strathcona-Sherwood Park NDP likely 8%
50. Calgary-Bow NDP likely 7%
51. Calgary-Edgemont NDP likely 6%
52. Morinville-St. Albert NDP likely 6%
53. Calgary-Acadia NDP likely 5%
54. Calgary-East NDP likely 3%
55. Calgary-Beddington NDP likely 3%
56. Calgary-North East NDP likely 3%
57. Calgary-Varsity NDP likely 2%
58. Sherwood Park NDP likely 2%
59. Calgary-Cross NDP likely 2%
60. St. Albert NDP likely <1%
61. Calgary-Klein NDP likely <1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Lacombe-Ponoka UCP safe
2. Grande Prairie-Wapiti UCP safe
3. Calgary-South East UCP safe
4. Drumheller-Stettler UCP safe
5. Taber-Warner UCP likely
6. Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul UCP likely
7. Highwood UCP likely
8. Central Peace-Notley UCP likely
9. Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright UCP likely
10. Athabasca-Barrhead UCP likely
11. West Yellowhead UCP likely
12. Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo UCP likely
13. Innisfail-Sylvan Lake UCP likely
14. Livingston-Macleod UCP likely
15. Camrose UCP likely
16. Cardston-Siksika UCP likely
17. Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre UCP likely
18. Calgary-West UCP likely
19. Peace River UCP likely
20. Calgary-Hays UCP likely
21. Calgary-Shaw UCP likely
22. Calgary-Lougheed UCP likely
23. Brooks-Medicine Hat UCP likely
24. Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland UCP likely
25. Drayton Valley-Devon UCP likely
26. Grande Prairie UCP likely
27. Airdrie East UCP likely
28. Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills UCP likely
29. Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche UCP leaning
30. Chestermere-Strathmore UCP leaning
31. Cypress-Medicine Hat UCP leaning
32. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin UCP leaning
33. Calgary-Elbow UCP leaning
34. Red Deer-North UCP leaning
35. Airdrie-Cochrane UCP leaning
36. Calgary-Fish Creek UCP leaning
37. Calgary-Peigan Toss up
38. Red Deer-South Toss up
39. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain Toss up
40. Calgary-North Toss up
41. Leduc-Beaumont NDP leaning
42. Calgary-North West NDP leaning
43. Calgary-Foothills NDP leaning
44. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville NDP leaning
45. Calgary-Glenmore NDP leaning
46. Lesser Slave Lake NDP leaning
47. Lethbridge-East NDP likely
48. Edmonton-South West NDP likely
49. Strathcona-Sherwood Park NDP likely
50. Calgary-Bow NDP likely
51. Calgary-Edgemont NDP likely
52. Morinville-St. Albert NDP likely
53. Calgary-Acadia NDP likely
54. Calgary-East NDP likely
55. Calgary-Beddington NDP likely
56. Calgary-North East NDP likely
57. Calgary-Varsity NDP likely
58. Sherwood Park NDP likely
59. Calgary-Cross NDP likely
60. St. Albert NDP likely
61. Calgary-Klein NDP likely



338Canada.com © 2016-2020