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Alberta

United Conservative Party





Last update: February 9, 2025

LeaderDanielle Smith
Popular vote in 202352.6%
Current vote projection54.3% ± 4.8%
Current number of MLA's49
Current seat projection60 [43-74]

Vote projection | February 9, 2025

44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 55% 56% 57% 58% 59% 60% 61% 62% 63% 64% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 49.5% 2023 52.6% 54.3% ± 4.8% Max. 59.2% Probabilities % UCP

Seat projection | February 9, 2025

24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69 74 79 84 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 43 Majority 44 seats 2023 49 seats 60 Max. 74 Probabilities % UCP

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | United Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Drumheller-Stettler Safe UCP >99%
2. Central Peace-Notley Safe UCP >99%
3. Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills Safe UCP >99%
4. Taber-Warner Safe UCP >99%
5. Grande Prairie-Wapiti Safe UCP >99%
6. Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul Safe UCP >99%
7. Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright Safe UCP >99%
8. Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock Safe UCP >99%
9. Drayton Valley-Devon Safe UCP >99%
10. Peace River Safe UCP >99%
11. Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche Safe UCP >99%
12. Chestermere-Strathmore Safe UCP >99%
13. West Yellowhead Safe UCP >99%
14. Innisfail-Sylvan Lake Safe UCP >99%
15. Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre Safe UCP >99%
16. Cardston-Siksika Safe UCP >99%
17. Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland Safe UCP >99%
18. Highwood Safe UCP >99%
19. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin Safe UCP >99%
20. Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo Safe UCP >99%
21. Livingston-Macleod Safe UCP >99%
22. Lacombe-Ponoka Safe UCP >99%
23. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain Safe UCP >99%
24. Brooks-Medicine Hat Safe UCP >99%
25. Airdrie East Safe UCP >99%
26. Airdrie-Cochrane Safe UCP >99%
27. Camrose Safe UCP >99%
28. Leduc-Beaumont Safe UCP >99%
29. Grande Prairie Safe UCP >99%
30. Calgary-South East Safe UCP >99%
31. Strathcona-Sherwood Park Safe UCP >99%
32. Cypress-Medicine Hat Safe UCP >99%
33. Lesser Slave Lake Safe UCP >99%
34. Morinville-St. Albert Safe UCP >99%
35. Calgary-West Likely UCP >99%
36. Calgary-Lougheed Likely UCP >99%
37. Calgary-Shaw Likely UCP >99%
38. Calgary-Hays Likely UCP >99%
39. Calgary-Peigan Likely UCP >99%
40. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville Likely UCP >99%
41. Red Deer-North Likely UCP 99%
42. Calgary-Fish Creek Likely UCP 98%
43. Red Deer-South Likely UCP 94%
44. Calgary-East Likely UCP 92%
45. Calgary-Cross Leaning UCP 88%
46. Sherwood Park Leaning UCP gain 88%
47. Calgary-North West Leaning UCP 82%
48. Calgary-Bow Leaning UCP 81%
49. Calgary-North Leaning UCP 79%
50. Calgary-Acadia Leaning UCP gain 78%
51. Calgary-Glenmore Leaning UCP gain 78%
52. Calgary-Foothills Leaning UCP gain 73%
53. Calgary-Edgemont Toss up UCP/NDP 68%
54. Edmonton-Decore Toss up UCP/NDP 65%
55. Edmonton-South West Toss up UCP/NDP 62%
56. Lethbridge-East Toss up UCP/NDP 62%
57. Calgary-Elbow Toss up UCP/NDP 58%
58. Calgary-Klein Toss up UCP/NDP 57%
59. Edmonton-Castle Downs Toss up UCP/NDP 57%
60. Calgary-Beddington Toss up UCP/NDP 53%
61. Edmonton-West Henday Toss up UCP/NDP 35%
62. Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview Toss up UCP/NDP 35%
63. Edmonton-South Toss up UCP/NDP 31%
64. St. Albert Leaning NDP 27%
65. Banff-Kananaskis Leaning NDP 26%
66. Calgary-North East Leaning NDP 26%
67. Edmonton-Manning Leaning NDP 23%
68. Edmonton-North West Leaning NDP 20%
69. Edmonton-McClung Leaning NDP 19%
70. Edmonton-Mill Woods Leaning NDP 19%
71. Edmonton-Ellerslie Leaning NDP 11%
72. Edmonton-Whitemud Leaning NDP 11%
73. Calgary-Bhullar-McCall Likely NDP 10%
74. Edmonton-Meadows Likely NDP 8%
75. Lethbridge-West Likely NDP 7%
76. Calgary-Currie Likely NDP 6%
77. Calgary-Falconridge Likely NDP 6%
78. Calgary-Varsity Likely NDP 3%
79. Edmonton-Rutherford Likely NDP 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Drumheller-Stettler Safe UCP
2. Central Peace-Notley Safe UCP
3. Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills Safe UCP
4. Taber-Warner Safe UCP
5. Grande Prairie-Wapiti Safe UCP
6. Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul Safe UCP
7. Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright Safe UCP
8. Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock Safe UCP
9. Drayton Valley-Devon Safe UCP
10. Peace River Safe UCP
11. Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche Safe UCP
12. Chestermere-Strathmore Safe UCP
13. West Yellowhead Safe UCP
14. Innisfail-Sylvan Lake Safe UCP
15. Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre Safe UCP
16. Cardston-Siksika Safe UCP
17. Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland Safe UCP
18. Highwood Safe UCP
19. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin Safe UCP
20. Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo Safe UCP
21. Livingston-Macleod Safe UCP
22. Lacombe-Ponoka Safe UCP
23. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain Safe UCP
24. Brooks-Medicine Hat Safe UCP
25. Airdrie East Safe UCP
26. Airdrie-Cochrane Safe UCP
27. Camrose Safe UCP
28. Leduc-Beaumont Safe UCP
29. Grande Prairie Safe UCP
30. Calgary-South East Safe UCP
31. Strathcona-Sherwood Park Safe UCP
32. Cypress-Medicine Hat Safe UCP
33. Lesser Slave Lake Safe UCP
34. Morinville-St. Albert Safe UCP
35. Calgary-West Likely UCP
36. Calgary-Lougheed Likely UCP
37. Calgary-Shaw Likely UCP
38. Calgary-Hays Likely UCP
39. Calgary-Peigan Likely UCP
40. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville Likely UCP
41. Red Deer-North Likely UCP
42. Calgary-Fish Creek Likely UCP
43. Red Deer-South Likely UCP
44. Calgary-East Likely UCP
45. Calgary-Cross Leaning UCP
46. Sherwood Park Leaning UCP gain
47. Calgary-North West Leaning UCP
48. Calgary-Bow Leaning UCP
49. Calgary-North Leaning UCP
50. Calgary-Acadia Leaning UCP gain
51. Calgary-Glenmore Leaning UCP gain
52. Calgary-Foothills Leaning UCP gain
53. Calgary-Edgemont Toss up UCP/NDP
54. Edmonton-Decore Toss up UCP/NDP
55. Edmonton-South West Toss up UCP/NDP
56. Lethbridge-East Toss up UCP/NDP
57. Calgary-Elbow Toss up UCP/NDP
58. Calgary-Klein Toss up UCP/NDP
59. Edmonton-Castle Downs Toss up UCP/NDP
60. Calgary-Beddington Toss up UCP/NDP
61. Edmonton-West Henday Toss up UCP/NDP
62. Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview Toss up UCP/NDP
63. Edmonton-South Toss up UCP/NDP
64. St. Albert Leaning NDP
65. Banff-Kananaskis Leaning NDP
66. Calgary-North East Leaning NDP
67. Edmonton-Manning Leaning NDP
68. Edmonton-North West Leaning NDP
69. Edmonton-McClung Leaning NDP
70. Edmonton-Mill Woods Leaning NDP
71. Edmonton-Ellerslie Leaning NDP
72. Edmonton-Whitemud Leaning NDP
73. Calgary-Bhullar-McCall Likely NDP
74. Edmonton-Meadows Likely NDP
75. Lethbridge-West Likely NDP
76. Calgary-Currie Likely NDP
77. Calgary-Falconridge Likely NDP
78. Calgary-Varsity Likely NDP
79. Edmonton-Rutherford Likely NDP