logo
Alberta

United Conservative Party





Last update: June 6, 2022

LeaderJason Kenney
Popular vote in 201954.9%
Current vote projection42.4% ± 6.0%
Current number of MLA's61
Current seat projection52 [37-62]



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the United Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre Safe UCP hold >99%
2. Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright Safe UCP hold >99%
3. Taber-Warner Safe UCP hold >99%
4. Drumheller-Stettler Safe UCP hold >99%
5. Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills Safe UCP hold >99%
6. Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche Safe UCP hold >99%
7. Grande Prairie-Wapiti Safe UCP hold >99%
8. Innisfail-Sylvan Lake Safe UCP hold >99%
9. Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo Safe UCP hold >99%
10. Lacombe-Ponoka Safe UCP hold >99%
11. Highwood Safe UCP hold >99%
12. Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul Safe UCP hold >99%
13. Central Peace-Notley Safe UCP hold >99%
14. Cardston-Siksika Safe UCP hold >99%
15. Drayton Valley-Devon Safe UCP hold >99%
16. Chestermere-Strathmore Safe UCP hold >99%
17. Camrose Safe UCP hold >99%
18. Brooks-Medicine Hat Safe UCP hold >99%
19. West Yellowhead Safe UCP hold >99%
20. Athabasca-Barrhead Safe UCP hold >99%
21. Livingston-Macleod Safe UCP hold >99%
22. Grande Prairie Safe UCP hold >99%
23. Airdrie East Safe UCP hold >99%
24. Peace River Safe UCP hold >99%
25. Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland Safe UCP hold >99%
26. Calgary-South East Safe UCP hold >99%
27. Calgary-Lougheed Likely UCP hold >99%
28. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin Likely UCP hold >99%
29. Red Deer-North Likely UCP hold >99%
30. Calgary-West Likely UCP hold >99%
31. Airdrie-Cochrane Likely UCP hold >99%
32. Calgary-Shaw Likely UCP hold >99%
33. Cypress-Medicine Hat Likely UCP hold >99%
34. Calgary-Hays Likely UCP hold >99%
35. Red Deer-South Likely UCP hold 98%
36. Calgary-Fish Creek Likely UCP hold 96%
37. Leduc-Beaumont Likely UCP hold 95%
38. Calgary-Peigan Likely UCP hold 94%
39. Calgary-Elbow Likely UCP hold 91%
40. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain Likely UCP hold 90%
41. Calgary-North Leaning UCP hold 78%
42. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville Leaning UCP hold 78%
43. Calgary-North West Leaning UCP hold 76%
44. Calgary-Foothills Leaning UCP hold 74%
45. Calgary-Glenmore Leaning UCP hold 73%
46. Calgary-Bow Leaning UCP hold 72%
47. Calgary-Edgemont Leaning UCP hold 70%
48. Lesser Slave Lake Leaning UCP hold 70%
49. Calgary-Cross Toss up UCP/NDP 63%
50. Calgary-Acadia Toss up UCP/NDP 63%
51. Calgary-Beddington Toss up UCP/NDP 56%
52. Strathcona-Sherwood Park Toss up UCP/NDP 54%
53. Morinville-St. Albert Toss up UCP/NDP 40%
54. Calgary-East Toss up UCP/NDP 37%
55. Calgary-North East Toss up UCP/NDP 30%
56. Lethbridge-East Leaning NDP gain 27%
57. Banff-Kananaskis Leaning NDP gain 16%
58. Edmonton-South West Leaning NDP gain 14%
59. Calgary-Klein Likely NDP gain 10%
60. Sherwood Park Likely NDP gain 8%
61. Calgary-Varsity Likely NDP gain 7%
62. Calgary-Falconridge Likely NDP gain 5%
63. Calgary-Currie Likely NDP gain 4%
64. Lethbridge-West Likely NDP hold <1%
65. Edmonton-West Henday Likely NDP hold <1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre Safe UCP hold
2. Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright Safe UCP hold
3. Taber-Warner Safe UCP hold
4. Drumheller-Stettler Safe UCP hold
5. Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills Safe UCP hold
6. Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche Safe UCP hold
7. Grande Prairie-Wapiti Safe UCP hold
8. Innisfail-Sylvan Lake Safe UCP hold
9. Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo Safe UCP hold
10. Lacombe-Ponoka Safe UCP hold
11. Highwood Safe UCP hold
12. Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul Safe UCP hold
13. Central Peace-Notley Safe UCP hold
14. Cardston-Siksika Safe UCP hold
15. Drayton Valley-Devon Safe UCP hold
16. Chestermere-Strathmore Safe UCP hold
17. Camrose Safe UCP hold
18. Brooks-Medicine Hat Safe UCP hold
19. West Yellowhead Safe UCP hold
20. Athabasca-Barrhead Safe UCP hold
21. Livingston-Macleod Safe UCP hold
22. Grande Prairie Safe UCP hold
23. Airdrie East Safe UCP hold
24. Peace River Safe UCP hold
25. Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland Safe UCP hold
26. Calgary-South East Safe UCP hold
27. Calgary-Lougheed Likely UCP hold
28. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin Likely UCP hold
29. Red Deer-North Likely UCP hold
30. Calgary-West Likely UCP hold
31. Airdrie-Cochrane Likely UCP hold
32. Calgary-Shaw Likely UCP hold
33. Cypress-Medicine Hat Likely UCP hold
34. Calgary-Hays Likely UCP hold
35. Red Deer-South Likely UCP hold
36. Calgary-Fish Creek Likely UCP hold
37. Leduc-Beaumont Likely UCP hold
38. Calgary-Peigan Likely UCP hold
39. Calgary-Elbow Likely UCP hold
40. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain Likely UCP hold
41. Calgary-North Leaning UCP hold
42. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville Leaning UCP hold
43. Calgary-North West Leaning UCP hold
44. Calgary-Foothills Leaning UCP hold
45. Calgary-Glenmore Leaning UCP hold
46. Calgary-Bow Leaning UCP hold
47. Calgary-Edgemont Leaning UCP hold
48. Lesser Slave Lake Leaning UCP hold
49. Calgary-Cross Toss up UCP/NDP
50. Calgary-Acadia Toss up UCP/NDP
51. Calgary-Beddington Toss up UCP/NDP
52. Strathcona-Sherwood Park Toss up UCP/NDP
53. Morinville-St. Albert Toss up UCP/NDP
54. Calgary-East Toss up UCP/NDP
55. Calgary-North East Toss up UCP/NDP
56. Lethbridge-East Leaning NDP gain
57. Banff-Kananaskis Leaning NDP gain
58. Edmonton-South West Leaning NDP gain
59. Calgary-Klein Likely NDP gain
60. Sherwood Park Likely NDP gain
61. Calgary-Varsity Likely NDP gain
62. Calgary-Falconridge Likely NDP gain
63. Calgary-Currie Likely NDP gain
64. Lethbridge-West Likely NDP hold
65. Edmonton-West Henday Likely NDP hold