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Alberta

United Conservative Party





Last update: July 7, 2024

LeaderDanielle Smith
Popular vote in 202352.6%
Current vote projection53.9% ± 4.8%
Current number of MLA's49
Current seat projection59 [42-72]

Vote projection | July 7, 2024

43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 55% 56% 57% 58% 59% 60% 61% 62% 63% 64% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 49.1% 2023 52.6% 53.9% ± 4.8% Max. 58.7% Probabilities % UCP

Seat projection | July 7, 2024

23 28 33 38 43 48 53 58 63 68 73 78 83 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 42 Majority 44 seats 2023 49 seats 59 Max. 72 Probabilities % UCP

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | United Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Drumheller-Stettler Safe UCP >99%
2. Central Peace-Notley Safe UCP >99%
3. Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills Safe UCP >99%
4. Taber-Warner Safe UCP >99%
5. Grande Prairie-Wapiti Safe UCP >99%
6. Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul Safe UCP >99%
7. Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright Safe UCP >99%
8. Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock Safe UCP >99%
9. Drayton Valley-Devon Safe UCP >99%
10. Peace River Safe UCP >99%
11. Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche Safe UCP >99%
12. Chestermere-Strathmore Safe UCP >99%
13. West Yellowhead Safe UCP >99%
14. Innisfail-Sylvan Lake Safe UCP >99%
15. Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre Safe UCP >99%
16. Cardston-Siksika Safe UCP >99%
17. Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland Safe UCP >99%
18. Highwood Safe UCP >99%
19. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin Safe UCP >99%
20. Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo Safe UCP >99%
21. Livingston-Macleod Safe UCP >99%
22. Lacombe-Ponoka Safe UCP >99%
23. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain Safe UCP >99%
24. Brooks-Medicine Hat Safe UCP >99%
25. Leduc-Beaumont Safe UCP >99%
26. Airdrie East Safe UCP >99%
27. Camrose Safe UCP >99%
28. Airdrie-Cochrane Safe UCP >99%
29. Grande Prairie Safe UCP >99%
30. Calgary-South East Safe UCP >99%
31. Strathcona-Sherwood Park Safe UCP >99%
32. Cypress-Medicine Hat Safe UCP >99%
33. Lesser Slave Lake Likely UCP >99%
34. Morinville-St. Albert Likely UCP >99%
35. Calgary-West Likely UCP >99%
36. Calgary-Lougheed Likely UCP >99%
37. Calgary-Shaw Likely UCP >99%
38. Calgary-Hays Likely UCP >99%
39. Calgary-Peigan Likely UCP >99%
40. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville Likely UCP 99%
41. Red Deer-North Likely UCP 98%
42. Calgary-Fish Creek Likely UCP 98%
43. Red Deer-South Likely UCP 92%
44. Calgary-East Leaning UCP 90%
45. Calgary-Cross Leaning UCP 85%
46. Sherwood Park Leaning UCP gain 85%
47. Calgary-North West Leaning UCP 77%
48. Calgary-Bow Leaning UCP 77%
49. Calgary-North Leaning UCP 75%
50. Calgary-Acadia Leaning UCP gain 74%
51. Calgary-Glenmore Leaning UCP gain 74%
52. Calgary-Foothills Toss up UCP/NDP 67%
53. Calgary-Edgemont Toss up UCP/NDP 63%
54. Edmonton-Decore Toss up UCP/NDP 61%
55. Edmonton-South West Toss up UCP/NDP 57%
56. Lethbridge-East Toss up UCP/NDP 56%
57. Calgary-Elbow Toss up UCP/NDP 52%
58. Calgary-Klein Toss up UCP/NDP 52%
59. Edmonton-Castle Downs Toss up UCP/NDP 52%
60. Calgary-Beddington Toss up UCP/NDP 48%
61. Edmonton-West Henday Toss up UCP/NDP 30%
62. Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview Leaning NDP 29%
63. Edmonton-South Leaning NDP 27%
64. St. Albert Leaning NDP 22%
65. Banff-Kananaskis Leaning NDP 22%
66. Calgary-North East Leaning NDP 21%
67. Edmonton-Manning Leaning NDP 19%
68. Edmonton-North West Leaning NDP 17%
69. Edmonton-McClung Leaning NDP 16%
70. Edmonton-Mill Woods Leaning NDP 16%
71. Edmonton-Ellerslie Likely NDP 9%
72. Edmonton-Whitemud Likely NDP 8%
73. Calgary-Bhullar-McCall Likely NDP 8%
74. Edmonton-Meadows Likely NDP 6%
75. Calgary-Currie Likely NDP 5%
76. Calgary-Falconridge Likely NDP 5%
77. Calgary-Varsity Likely NDP 2%
78. Lethbridge-West Likely NDP 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Drumheller-Stettler Safe UCP
2. Central Peace-Notley Safe UCP
3. Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills Safe UCP
4. Taber-Warner Safe UCP
5. Grande Prairie-Wapiti Safe UCP
6. Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul Safe UCP
7. Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright Safe UCP
8. Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock Safe UCP
9. Drayton Valley-Devon Safe UCP
10. Peace River Safe UCP
11. Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche Safe UCP
12. Chestermere-Strathmore Safe UCP
13. West Yellowhead Safe UCP
14. Innisfail-Sylvan Lake Safe UCP
15. Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre Safe UCP
16. Cardston-Siksika Safe UCP
17. Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland Safe UCP
18. Highwood Safe UCP
19. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin Safe UCP
20. Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo Safe UCP
21. Livingston-Macleod Safe UCP
22. Lacombe-Ponoka Safe UCP
23. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain Safe UCP
24. Brooks-Medicine Hat Safe UCP
25. Leduc-Beaumont Safe UCP
26. Airdrie East Safe UCP
27. Camrose Safe UCP
28. Airdrie-Cochrane Safe UCP
29. Grande Prairie Safe UCP
30. Calgary-South East Safe UCP
31. Strathcona-Sherwood Park Safe UCP
32. Cypress-Medicine Hat Safe UCP
33. Lesser Slave Lake Likely UCP
34. Morinville-St. Albert Likely UCP
35. Calgary-West Likely UCP
36. Calgary-Lougheed Likely UCP
37. Calgary-Shaw Likely UCP
38. Calgary-Hays Likely UCP
39. Calgary-Peigan Likely UCP
40. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville Likely UCP
41. Red Deer-North Likely UCP
42. Calgary-Fish Creek Likely UCP
43. Red Deer-South Likely UCP
44. Calgary-East Leaning UCP
45. Calgary-Cross Leaning UCP
46. Sherwood Park Leaning UCP gain
47. Calgary-North West Leaning UCP
48. Calgary-Bow Leaning UCP
49. Calgary-North Leaning UCP
50. Calgary-Acadia Leaning UCP gain
51. Calgary-Glenmore Leaning UCP gain
52. Calgary-Foothills Toss up UCP/NDP
53. Calgary-Edgemont Toss up UCP/NDP
54. Edmonton-Decore Toss up UCP/NDP
55. Edmonton-South West Toss up UCP/NDP
56. Lethbridge-East Toss up UCP/NDP
57. Calgary-Elbow Toss up UCP/NDP
58. Calgary-Klein Toss up UCP/NDP
59. Edmonton-Castle Downs Toss up UCP/NDP
60. Calgary-Beddington Toss up UCP/NDP
61. Edmonton-West Henday Toss up UCP/NDP
62. Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview Leaning NDP
63. Edmonton-South Leaning NDP
64. St. Albert Leaning NDP
65. Banff-Kananaskis Leaning NDP
66. Calgary-North East Leaning NDP
67. Edmonton-Manning Leaning NDP
68. Edmonton-North West Leaning NDP
69. Edmonton-McClung Leaning NDP
70. Edmonton-Mill Woods Leaning NDP
71. Edmonton-Ellerslie Likely NDP
72. Edmonton-Whitemud Likely NDP
73. Calgary-Bhullar-McCall Likely NDP
74. Edmonton-Meadows Likely NDP
75. Calgary-Currie Likely NDP
76. Calgary-Falconridge Likely NDP
77. Calgary-Varsity Likely NDP
78. Lethbridge-West Likely NDP