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Alberta

Recent electoral history | Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul


2019 2023 Projection UCP 66% ± 7% 73.1% 75.5% NDP 27% ± 6% 14.1% 24.5% REP 5% ± 4% 0.0% 0.0% PTPA 1% ± 2% 10.2% 0.0%

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338Canada Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul projection

Latest update: February 8, 2026

Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul 59% 73% 66% ± 7% UCP 21% 33% 27% ± 6% NDP 1% 9% 5% ± 4% REP UCP 2023 75.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul >99% UCP <1% NDP <1% REPOdds of winning | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul

UCP 66% ± 7% NDP 27% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP REP February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 UCP 72% NDP 27% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP 73% NDP 26% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP 73% NDP 26% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 UCP 73% NDP 26% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP 73% NDP 26% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 UCP 73% NDP 26% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 UCP 68% NDP 25% REP 6% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 UCP 68% NDP 25% REP 5% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 UCP 65% NDP 28% REP 5% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 UCP 66% NDP 27% REP 5% 2026-02-08

Odds of winning | Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul

LIB <1% UCP >99% NDP <1% PTPA <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP PTPA February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2026-02-08 2024-03-19 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09