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Alberta

Recent electoral history | Banff-Kananaskis


2019 2023 Projection NDP 51% ± 7% 42.1% 49.4% UCP 40% ± 7% 51.2% 48.5% REP 5% ± 4% 0.0% 0.0% PTPA 1% ± 2% 4.5% 0.0%

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338Canada Banff-Kananaskis projection

Latest update: February 8, 2026

Banff-Kananaskis 44% 58% 51% ± 7% NDP 33% 47% 40% ± 7% UCP 1% 9% 5% ± 4% REP NDP 2023 49.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Banff-Kananaskis 96%▼ NDP 4%▲ UCP <1% REPOdds of winning | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Banff-Kananaskis

UCP 40% ± 7% NDP 51% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Banff-Kananaskis 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP REP February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 NDP 51% UCP 45% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 NDP 51% UCP 46% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 NDP 50% UCP 46% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 NDP 50% UCP 46% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 NDP 50% UCP 46% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 NDP 51% UCP 46% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 NDP 49% UCP 42% REP 6% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 NDP 49% UCP 42% REP 5% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 NDP 52% UCP 39% REP 5% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 NDP 51% UCP 40% REP 5% 2026-02-08

Odds of winning | Banff-Kananaskis

LIB <1% UCP 4% NDP 96% PTPA <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP PTPA February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 NDP 55% UCP 45% PTPA <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 NDP 82% UCP 18% PTPA <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 NDP 89% UCP 11% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 NDP 82% UCP 18% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 NDP 78% UCP 22% PTPA <1% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 NDP 74% UCP 26% PTPA <1% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 NDP 74% UCP 26% PTPA <1% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 NDP 74% UCP 26% PTPA <1% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 NDP 78% UCP 22% PTPA <1% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 NDP 83% UCP 17% PTPA <1% 2026-02-08 2024-03-19 NDP 86% UCP 14% PTPA <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 NDP 98% UCP 2% PTPA <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 NDP 96% UCP 4% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09