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Alberta

Recent electoral history | Edmonton-Castle Downs


2019 2023 Projection NDP 48% ± 7% 45.8% 55.0% UCP 43% ± 7% 36.0% 41.1% PTPA 7% ± 5% 15.4% 3.9%

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338Canada Edmonton-Castle Downs projection

Latest update: February 8, 2026

Edmonton-Castle Downs 40% 55% 48% ± 7% NDP 36% 51% 43% ± 7% UCP 2% 12% 7% ± 5% PTPA NDP 2023 55.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Edmonton-Castle Downs 74%▼ NDP 26%▲ UCP <1% PTPA Odds of winning | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Edmonton-Castle Downs

UCP 43% ± 7% NDP 48% ± 7% PTPA 7% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Edmonton-Castle Downs 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP PTPA February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 NDP 52% UCP 42% PTPA 5% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP 47% NDP 47% PTPA 5% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP 48% NDP 46% PTPA 5% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 UCP 48% NDP 46% PTPA 5% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP 49% NDP 46% PTPA 5% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 UCP 48% NDP 46% PTPA 6% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 UCP 46% NDP 45% PTPA 6% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 UCP 46% NDP 46% PTPA 7% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 NDP 49% UCP 42% PTPA 7% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 NDP 48% UCP 43% PTPA 7% 2026-02-08

Odds of winning | Edmonton-Castle Downs

LIB <1% UCP 26% NDP 74% PTPA <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP PTPA February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 NDP 99% UCP 1% PTPA <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 NDP 97% UCP 3% PTPA <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 NDP 93% UCP 7% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 NDP 92% UCP 8% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP 52% NDP 48% PTPA <1% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 UCP 57% NDP 43% PTPA <1% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 UCP 57% NDP 43% PTPA <1% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 UCP 67% NDP 33% PTPA <1% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 UCP 61% NDP 39% PTPA <1% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 UCP 54% NDP 46% PTPA <1% 2026-02-08 2024-03-19 UCP 51% NDP 49% PTPA <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 NDP 82% UCP 18% PTPA <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 NDP 74% UCP 26% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09