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Alberta

Recent electoral history | Calgary-Shaw


2019 2023 Projection NDP 47% ± 7% 25.6% 42.8% UCP 43% ± 7% 65.4% 56.3% PTPA 6% ± 5% 6.1% 0.0%

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338Canada Calgary-Shaw projection

Latest update: September 15, 2026

Calgary-Shaw 40% 54% 47% ± 7% NDP 36% 50% 43% ± 7% UCP 0% 11% 6% ± 5% PTPA UCP 2023 56.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 15, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Calgary-Shaw 73%▲ NDP 27%▼ UCP <1% PTPA Odds of winning | September 15, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

338Canada Alberta Projection | Calgary-Shaw

Odds of winning | Calgary-Shaw