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Alberta

Recent electoral history | Calgary-Shaw


2019 2023 Projection UCP 59% ± 7% 65.4% 56.3% NDP 34% ± 6% 25.6% 42.8% PTPA 3% ± 3% 6.1% 0.0%

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338Canada Calgary-Shaw projection

Latest update: April 12, 2026

Calgary-Shaw 53% 66% 59% ± 7% UCP 28% 40% 34% ± 6% NDP UCP 2023 56.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | April 12, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Calgary-Shaw >99% UCP <1% NDP <1% PTPA Odds of winning | April 12, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

338Canada Alberta Projection | Calgary-Shaw

Odds of winning | Calgary-Shaw