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Alberta

Recent electoral history | Calgary-Cross


2019 2023 Projection UCP 49% ± 8% 54.3% 50.0% NDP 43% ± 7% 37.3% 46.5% PTPA 3% ± 3% 5.9% 0.0%

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338Canada Calgary-Cross projection

Latest update: February 8, 2026

Calgary-Cross 41% 56% 49% ± 8% UCP 36% 50% 43% ± 7% NDP UCP 2023 50.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Calgary-Cross 79%▲ UCP 21%▼ NDP <1% PTPA Odds of winning | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Calgary-Cross

UCP 49% ± 8% NDP 43% ± 7% PTPA 3% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Calgary-Cross 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP PTPA February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 UCP 51% NDP 43% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP 51% NDP 43% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP 51% NDP 43% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 UCP 51% NDP 43% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP 54% NDP 40% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 UCP 54% NDP 40% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 UCP 51% NDP 40% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 UCP 51% NDP 41% PTPA 3% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 UCP 48% NDP 44% PTPA 3% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 UCP 49% NDP 43% PTPA 3% 2026-02-08

Odds of winning | Calgary-Cross

LIB <1% UCP 79% NDP 21% PTPA <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP PTPA February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 UCP 81% NDP 19% PTPA <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP 63% NDP 37% PTPA <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP 83% NDP 17% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 UCP 87% NDP 13% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP 85% NDP 15% PTPA <1% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 UCP 88% NDP 12% PTPA <1% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 UCP 88% NDP 12% PTPA <1% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 UCP 97% NDP 3% PTPA <1% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 UCP 97% NDP 3% PTPA <1% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 UCP 95% NDP 5% PTPA <1% 2026-02-08 2024-03-19 UCP 93% NDP 7% PTPA <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP 71% NDP 29% PTPA <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP 79% NDP 21% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09