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Alberta

Recent electoral history | Calgary-Acadia


2019 2023 Projection UCP 48% ± 7% 54.3% 48.5% NDP 45% ± 7% 34.7% 48.6% PTPA 3% ± 3% 7.4% 0.0%

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338Canada Calgary-Acadia projection

Latest update: February 8, 2026

Calgary-Acadia 41% 55% 48% ± 7% UCP 38% 52% 45% ± 7% NDP NDP 2023 48.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Calgary-Acadia 65%▲ UCP 35%▼ NDP <1% PTPA Odds of winning | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Calgary-Acadia

UCP 48% ± 7% NDP 45% ± 7% PTPA 3% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Calgary-Acadia 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP PTPA February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 UCP 50% NDP 45% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP 50% NDP 45% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP 50% NDP 45% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 UCP 50% NDP 45% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP 53% NDP 42% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 UCP 52% NDP 42% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 UCP 50% NDP 42% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 UCP 50% NDP 43% PTPA 3% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 UCP 47% NDP 46% PTPA 3% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 UCP 48% NDP 45% PTPA 3% 2026-02-08

Odds of winning | Calgary-Acadia

LIB <1% UCP 65% NDP 35% PTPA <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP PTPA February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 UCP 64% NDP 36% PTPA <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 NDP 56% UCP 44% PTPA <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP 71% NDP 29% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 UCP 76% NDP 24% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP 74% NDP 26% PTPA <1% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 UCP 78% NDP 22% PTPA <1% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 UCP 78% NDP 22% PTPA <1% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 UCP 95% NDP 5% PTPA <1% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 UCP 93% NDP 7% PTPA <1% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 UCP 89% NDP 11% PTPA <1% 2026-02-08 2024-03-19 UCP 86% NDP 14% PTPA <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP 54% NDP 46% PTPA <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP 65% NDP 35% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09