logo
Alberta

New Democratic Party





Last update: September 11, 2022

LeaderRachel Notley
Popular vote in 201932.7%
Current vote projection40.7% ± 6.2%
Current number of MLA's24
Current seat projection36 [21-54]



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the New Democratic Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Edmonton-Strathcona Safe NDP hold >99%
2. Edmonton-City Centre Safe NDP hold >99%
3. Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood Safe NDP hold >99%
4. Edmonton-Glenora Safe NDP hold >99%
5. Edmonton-Gold Bar Safe NDP hold >99%
6. Edmonton-Riverview Safe NDP hold >99%
7. Calgary-Bhullar-McCall Safe NDP hold >99%
8. Calgary-Mountain View Safe NDP hold >99%
9. Edmonton-Rutherford Safe NDP hold >99%
10. Edmonton-North West Safe NDP hold >99%
11. Edmonton-Meadows Safe NDP hold >99%
12. Lethbridge-West Safe NDP hold >99%
13. Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview Safe NDP hold >99%
14. Calgary-Buffalo Likely NDP hold >99%
15. Edmonton-Ellerslie Likely NDP hold >99%
16. Edmonton-Mill Woods Likely NDP hold >99%
17. Edmonton-Manning Likely NDP hold >99%
18. Edmonton-Castle Downs Likely NDP hold >99%
19. Edmonton-Whitemud Likely NDP hold >99%
20. Edmonton-McClung Likely NDP hold 99%
21. Edmonton-Decore Likely NDP hold 99%
22. St. Albert Likely NDP hold 97%
23. Edmonton-South Likely NDP hold 96%
24. Edmonton-West Henday Likely NDP hold 95%
25. Calgary-Falconridge Likely NDP gain 92%
26. Calgary-Varsity Leaning NDP gain 87%
27. Sherwood Park Leaning NDP gain 86%
28. Banff-Kananaskis Leaning NDP gain 82%
29. Lethbridge-East Leaning NDP gain 80%
30. Calgary-Currie Leaning NDP gain 77%
31. Calgary-Klein Leaning NDP gain 75%
32. Calgary-North East Toss up UCP/NDP 63%
33. Morinville-St. Albert Toss up UCP/NDP 58%
34. Edmonton-South West Toss up UCP/NDP 56%
35. Strathcona-Sherwood Park Toss up UCP/NDP 55%
36. Calgary-East Toss up UCP/NDP 52%
37. Calgary-Beddington Toss up UCP/NDP 50%
38. Calgary-Acadia Toss up UCP/NDP 43%
39. Calgary-Cross Toss up UCP/NDP 43%
40. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville Toss up UCP/NDP 39%
41. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain Toss up UCP/NDP 35%
42. Calgary-Edgemont Toss up UCP/NDP 35%
43. Lesser Slave Lake Toss up UCP/NDP 35%
44. Calgary-Bow Toss up UCP/NDP 33%
45. Calgary-Glenmore Toss up UCP/NDP 33%
46. Calgary-Foothills Toss up UCP/NDP 32%
47. Calgary-North West Leaning UCP hold 29%
48. Calgary-North Leaning UCP hold 27%
49. Leduc-Beaumont Leaning UCP hold 23%
50. Calgary-Elbow Leaning UCP hold 12%
51. Red Deer-South Leaning UCP hold 12%
52. Calgary-Peigan Likely UCP hold 9%
53. Calgary-Fish Creek Likely UCP hold 6%
54. Cypress-Medicine Hat Likely UCP hold 4%
55. Red Deer-North Likely UCP hold 4%
56. Airdrie-Cochrane Likely UCP hold 4%
57. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin Likely UCP hold 3%
58. Calgary-Hays Likely UCP hold <1%
59. Calgary-Shaw Likely UCP hold <1%
60. Calgary-West Likely UCP hold <1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Edmonton-Strathcona Safe NDP hold
2. Edmonton-City Centre Safe NDP hold
3. Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood Safe NDP hold
4. Edmonton-Glenora Safe NDP hold
5. Edmonton-Gold Bar Safe NDP hold
6. Edmonton-Riverview Safe NDP hold
7. Calgary-Bhullar-McCall Safe NDP hold
8. Calgary-Mountain View Safe NDP hold
9. Edmonton-Rutherford Safe NDP hold
10. Edmonton-North West Safe NDP hold
11. Edmonton-Meadows Safe NDP hold
12. Lethbridge-West Safe NDP hold
13. Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview Safe NDP hold
14. Calgary-Buffalo Likely NDP hold
15. Edmonton-Ellerslie Likely NDP hold
16. Edmonton-Mill Woods Likely NDP hold
17. Edmonton-Manning Likely NDP hold
18. Edmonton-Castle Downs Likely NDP hold
19. Edmonton-Whitemud Likely NDP hold
20. Edmonton-McClung Likely NDP hold
21. Edmonton-Decore Likely NDP hold
22. St. Albert Likely NDP hold
23. Edmonton-South Likely NDP hold
24. Edmonton-West Henday Likely NDP hold
25. Calgary-Falconridge Likely NDP gain
26. Calgary-Varsity Leaning NDP gain
27. Sherwood Park Leaning NDP gain
28. Banff-Kananaskis Leaning NDP gain
29. Lethbridge-East Leaning NDP gain
30. Calgary-Currie Leaning NDP gain
31. Calgary-Klein Leaning NDP gain
32. Calgary-North East Toss up UCP/NDP
33. Morinville-St. Albert Toss up UCP/NDP
34. Edmonton-South West Toss up UCP/NDP
35. Strathcona-Sherwood Park Toss up UCP/NDP
36. Calgary-East Toss up UCP/NDP
37. Calgary-Beddington Toss up UCP/NDP
38. Calgary-Acadia Toss up UCP/NDP
39. Calgary-Cross Toss up UCP/NDP
40. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville Toss up UCP/NDP
41. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain Toss up UCP/NDP
42. Calgary-Edgemont Toss up UCP/NDP
43. Lesser Slave Lake Toss up UCP/NDP
44. Calgary-Bow Toss up UCP/NDP
45. Calgary-Glenmore Toss up UCP/NDP
46. Calgary-Foothills Toss up UCP/NDP
47. Calgary-North West Leaning UCP hold
48. Calgary-North Leaning UCP hold
49. Leduc-Beaumont Leaning UCP hold
50. Calgary-Elbow Leaning UCP hold
51. Red Deer-South Leaning UCP hold
52. Calgary-Peigan Likely UCP hold
53. Calgary-Fish Creek Likely UCP hold
54. Cypress-Medicine Hat Likely UCP hold
55. Red Deer-North Likely UCP hold
56. Airdrie-Cochrane Likely UCP hold
57. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin Likely UCP hold
58. Calgary-Hays Likely UCP hold
59. Calgary-Shaw Likely UCP hold
60. Calgary-West Likely UCP hold