338Canada Alberta - New Democratic Party





Last update: August 5, 2021

LeaderRachel Notley
Popular vote in 201932.7%
Current vote projection41.8% ± 5.4%
Current number of MP's24
Current seat projection50 ± 13



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the New Democratic Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Edmonton-Strathcona NDP safe >99%
2. Edmonton-City Centre NDP safe >99%
3. Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood NDP safe >99%
4. Calgary-McCall NDP safe >99%
5. Calgary-Buffalo NDP safe >99%
6. Calgary-Mountain View NDP safe >99%
7. Lethbridge-West NDP safe >99%
8. Edmonton-Gold Bar NDP safe >99%
9. Edmonton-Glenora NDP safe >99%
10. Edmonton-Riverview NDP safe >99%
11. Calgary-Currie NDP safe >99%
12. Sherwood Park NDP safe >99%
13. Edmonton-Manning NDP safe >99%
14. Edmonton-Meadows NDP safe >99%
15. Banff-Kananaskis NDP safe >99%
16. Edmonton-North West NDP safe >99%
17. Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview NDP safe >99%
18. Edmonton-Mill Woods NDP safe >99%
19. Edmonton-Rutherford NDP likely >99%
20. Edmonton-Castle Downs NDP likely >99%
21. Lethbridge-East NDP likely >99%
22. Calgary-Falconridge NDP likely >99%
23. Morinville-St. Albert NDP likely >99%
24. Edmonton-McClung NDP likely >99%
25. Edmonton-Ellerslie NDP likely 99%
26. Calgary-Klein NDP likely 99%
27. St. Albert NDP likely 98%
28. Edmonton-Whitemud NDP likely 98%
29. Edmonton-South NDP likely 97%
30. Edmonton-West Henday NDP likely 97%
31. Edmonton-Decore NDP likely 97%
32. Calgary-Cross NDP likely 96%
33. Calgary-Varsity NDP likely 96%
34. Calgary-North East NDP likely 95%
35. Calgary-Beddington NDP likely 95%
36. Calgary-East NDP likely 95%
37. Leduc-Beaumont NDP likely 93%
38. Lesser Slave Lake NDP likely 92%
39. Strathcona-Sherwood Park NDP likely 92%
40. Calgary-Acadia NDP likely 92%
41. Calgary-Edgemont NDP leaning 88%
42. Calgary-Bow NDP leaning 88%
43. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville NDP leaning 88%
44. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain NDP leaning 80%
45. Edmonton-South West NDP leaning 76%
46. Calgary-Glenmore NDP leaning 71%
47. Red Deer-South Toss up 69%
48. Calgary-Foothills Toss up 68%
49. Calgary-North West Toss up 65%
50. Calgary-North Toss up 52%
51. Cypress-Medicine Hat Toss up 45%
52. Airdrie-Cochrane Toss up 42%
53. Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche Toss up 34%
54. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin Toss up 30%
55. Red Deer-North UCP leaning 28%
56. Calgary-Peigan UCP leaning 27%
57. Calgary-Elbow UCP leaning 22%
58. Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland UCP leaning 19%
59. Calgary-Fish Creek UCP leaning 16%
60. Grande Prairie UCP leaning 11%
61. Calgary-Hays UCP likely 7%
62. Peace River UCP likely 3%
63. Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo UCP likely 3%
64. Airdrie East UCP likely 3%
65. Livingston-Macleod UCP likely 2%
66. West Yellowhead UCP likely 2%
67. Calgary-Shaw UCP likely 1%
68. Calgary-Lougheed UCP likely 1%
69. Camrose UCP likely <1%
70. Calgary-West UCP likely <1%
71. Athabasca-Barrhead UCP likely <1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Edmonton-Strathcona NDP safe
2. Edmonton-City Centre NDP safe
3. Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood NDP safe
4. Calgary-McCall NDP safe
5. Calgary-Buffalo NDP safe
6. Calgary-Mountain View NDP safe
7. Lethbridge-West NDP safe
8. Edmonton-Gold Bar NDP safe
9. Edmonton-Glenora NDP safe
10. Edmonton-Riverview NDP safe
11. Calgary-Currie NDP safe
12. Sherwood Park NDP safe
13. Edmonton-Manning NDP safe
14. Edmonton-Meadows NDP safe
15. Banff-Kananaskis NDP safe
16. Edmonton-North West NDP safe
17. Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview NDP safe
18. Edmonton-Mill Woods NDP safe
19. Edmonton-Rutherford NDP likely
20. Edmonton-Castle Downs NDP likely
21. Lethbridge-East NDP likely
22. Calgary-Falconridge NDP likely
23. Morinville-St. Albert NDP likely
24. Edmonton-McClung NDP likely
25. Edmonton-Ellerslie NDP likely
26. Calgary-Klein NDP likely
27. St. Albert NDP likely
28. Edmonton-Whitemud NDP likely
29. Edmonton-South NDP likely
30. Edmonton-West Henday NDP likely
31. Edmonton-Decore NDP likely
32. Calgary-Cross NDP likely
33. Calgary-Varsity NDP likely
34. Calgary-North East NDP likely
35. Calgary-Beddington NDP likely
36. Calgary-East NDP likely
37. Leduc-Beaumont NDP likely
38. Lesser Slave Lake NDP likely
39. Strathcona-Sherwood Park NDP likely
40. Calgary-Acadia NDP likely
41. Calgary-Edgemont NDP leaning
42. Calgary-Bow NDP leaning
43. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville NDP leaning
44. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain NDP leaning
45. Edmonton-South West NDP leaning
46. Calgary-Glenmore NDP leaning
47. Red Deer-South Toss up
48. Calgary-Foothills Toss up
49. Calgary-North West Toss up
50. Calgary-North Toss up
51. Cypress-Medicine Hat Toss up
52. Airdrie-Cochrane Toss up
53. Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche Toss up
54. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin Toss up
55. Red Deer-North UCP leaning
56. Calgary-Peigan UCP leaning
57. Calgary-Elbow UCP leaning
58. Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland UCP leaning
59. Calgary-Fish Creek UCP leaning
60. Grande Prairie UCP leaning
61. Calgary-Hays UCP likely
62. Peace River UCP likely
63. Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo UCP likely
64. Airdrie East UCP likely
65. Livingston-Macleod UCP likely
66. West Yellowhead UCP likely
67. Calgary-Shaw UCP likely
68. Calgary-Lougheed UCP likely
69. Camrose UCP likely
70. Calgary-West UCP likely
71. Athabasca-Barrhead UCP likely



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