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Last update: October 24, 2021
| Leader | Rachel Notley |
| Popular vote in 2019 | 32.7% |
| Current vote projection | 45.1% ± 5.8% |
| Current number of MLA's | 24 |
| Current seat projection | 60 [45-71] |
Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the New Democratic Party
| Rank | Electoral districts | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Edmonton-Strathcona | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 2. | Edmonton-City Centre | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 3. | Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 4. | Edmonton-Gold Bar | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 5. | Edmonton-Glenora | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 6. | Calgary-McCall | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 7. | Edmonton-Riverview | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 8. | Calgary-Buffalo | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 9. | Edmonton-Rutherford | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 10. | Calgary-Mountain View | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 11. | Edmonton-Manning | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 12. | Edmonton-North West | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 13. | Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 14. | Edmonton-Ellerslie | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 15. | Edmonton-Mill Woods | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 16. | Calgary-Falconridge |  |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 17. | Calgary-Currie | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 18. | Lethbridge-West | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 19. | Edmonton-Castle Downs | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 20. | Edmonton-McClung | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 21. | Edmonton-Meadows | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 22. | St. Albert | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 23. | Sherwood Park | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 24. | Edmonton-Whitemud | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 25. | Edmonton-Decore | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 26. | Calgary-Varsity | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 27. | Edmonton-South | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 28. | Calgary-Klein | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 29. | Edmonton-West Henday | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 30. | Banff-Kananaskis | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 31. | Calgary-North East | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 32. | Calgary-Cross | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 33. | Calgary-East | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 34. | Calgary-Beddington | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 35. | Morinville-St. Albert | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 36. | Lethbridge-East | |
NDP likely | >99% |
| 37. | Calgary-Acadia | |
NDP likely | >99% |
| 38. | Calgary-Edgemont | |
NDP likely | >99% |
| 39. | Calgary-Bow | |
NDP likely | >99% |
| 40. | Edmonton-South West | |
NDP likely | >99% |
| 41. | Calgary-Glenmore | |
NDP likely | 99% |
| 42. | Calgary-Foothills | |
NDP likely | 99% |
| 43. | Calgary-North West | |
NDP likely | 98% |
| 44. | Strathcona-Sherwood Park | |
NDP likely | 98% |
| 45. | Lesser Slave Lake | |
NDP likely | 97% |
| 46. | Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville | |
NDP likely | 96% |
| 47. | Calgary-North | |
NDP likely | 96% |
| 48. | Leduc-Beaumont | |
NDP likely | 91% |
| 49. | Spruce Grove-Stony Plain | |
NDP leaning | 88% |
| 50. | Calgary-Peigan | |
NDP leaning | 88% |
| 51. | Calgary-Elbow | |
NDP leaning | 84% |
| 52. | Calgary-Fish Creek | |
NDP leaning | 80% |
| 53. | Red Deer-South | |
NDP leaning | 74% |
| 54. | Calgary-Hays | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 66% |
| 55. | Calgary-Shaw | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 58% |
| 56. | Calgary-Lougheed | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 57% |
| 57. | Calgary-West | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 52% |
| 58. | Cypress-Medicine Hat |  |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 52% |
| 59. | Red Deer-North | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 51% |
| 60. | Airdrie-Cochrane | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 50% |
| 61. | Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 46% |
| 62. | Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 43% |
| 63. | Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 36% |
| 64. | Grande Prairie | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 34% |
| 65. | Calgary-South East | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 34% |
| 66. | Peace River | |
UCP leaning | 20% |
| 67. | Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo | |
UCP leaning | 12% |
| 68. | West Yellowhead | |
UCP leaning | 10% |
| 69. | Airdrie East | |
UCP likely | 9% |
| 70. | Livingston-Macleod | |
UCP likely | 8% |
| 71. | Brooks-Medicine Hat | |
UCP likely | 7% |
| 72. | Camrose | |
UCP likely | 6% |
| 73. | Athabasca-Barrhead | |
UCP likely | 5% |
| 74. | Central Peace-Notley | |
UCP likely | 2% |
| 75. | Drayton Valley-Devon | |
UCP likely | 1% |
| 76. | Chestermere-Strathmore | |
UCP likely | <1% |
| 77. | Highwood | |
UCP likely | <1% |