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Alberta

New Democratic Party





Last update: March 18, 2022

LeaderRachel Notley
Popular vote in 201932.7%
Current vote projection40.0% ± 5.6%
Current number of MLA's24
Current seat projection44 [28-59]



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the New Democratic Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Edmonton-Strathcona NDP safe >99%
2. Edmonton-City Centre NDP safe >99%
3. Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood NDP safe >99%
4. Edmonton-Gold Bar NDP safe >99%
5. Edmonton-Glenora NDP safe >99%
6. Edmonton-Riverview NDP safe >99%
7. Calgary-McCall NDP safe >99%
8. Edmonton-Rutherford NDP safe >99%
9. Edmonton-Manning NDP safe >99%
10. Edmonton-North West NDP safe >99%
11. Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview NDP safe >99%
12. Edmonton-Meadows NDP safe >99%
13. Calgary-Mountain View NDP safe >99%
14. Edmonton-Ellerslie NDP safe >99%
15. Edmonton-Mill Woods NDP safe >99%
16. Edmonton-Castle Downs NDP safe >99%
17. Edmonton-McClung NDP safe >99%
18. Edmonton-Whitemud NDP safe >99%
19. Edmonton-Decore NDP safe >99%
20. Edmonton-West Henday NDP safe >99%
21. Calgary-Buffalo NDP safe >99%
22. Edmonton-South NDP safe >99%
23. Calgary-Currie NDP likely >99%
24. Lethbridge-West NDP likely >99%
25. St. Albert NDP likely 99%
26. Calgary-Klein NDP likely 99%
27. Calgary-Varsity NDP likely 99%
28. Calgary-Falconridge NDP likely 99%
29. Sherwood Park NDP likely 91%
30. Edmonton-South West NDP leaning 90%
31. Calgary-North East NDP leaning 87%
32. Banff-Kananaskis NDP leaning 82%
33. Calgary-North West NDP leaning 80%
34. Calgary-East NDP leaning 79%
35. Calgary-Foothills NDP leaning 75%
36. Calgary-Glenmore NDP leaning 74%
37. Lethbridge-East NDP leaning 74%
38. Calgary-Beddington NDP leaning 71%
39. Calgary-North Toss up UCP/NDP 70%
40. Calgary-Acadia Toss up UCP/NDP 70%
41. Strathcona-Sherwood Park Toss up UCP/NDP 62%
42. Calgary-Cross Toss up UCP/NDP 60%
43. Calgary-Bow Toss up UCP/NDP 58%
44. Morinville-St. Albert Toss up UCP/NDP 50%
45. Calgary-Edgemont Toss up UCP/NDP 50%
46. Lesser Slave Lake Toss up UCP/NDP 44%
47. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville Toss up UCP/NDP 37%
48. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain Toss up UCP/NDP 37%
49. Calgary-Peigan UCP leaning 29%
50. Calgary-Fish Creek UCP leaning 24%
51. Calgary-West UCP leaning 22%
52. Calgary-Elbow UCP leaning 20%
53. Calgary-Hays UCP leaning 20%
54. Calgary-Lougheed UCP leaning 18%
55. Calgary-Shaw UCP leaning 15%
56. Cypress-Medicine Hat UCP leaning 14%
57. Airdrie-Cochrane UCP leaning 13%
58. Red Deer-South UCP likely 6%
59. Calgary-South East UCP likely 6%
60. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin UCP likely 3%
61. Leduc-Beaumont UCP likely 3%
62. Red Deer-North UCP likely <1%
63. Airdrie East UCP likely <1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Edmonton-Strathcona NDP safe
2. Edmonton-City Centre NDP safe
3. Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood NDP safe
4. Edmonton-Gold Bar NDP safe
5. Edmonton-Glenora NDP safe
6. Edmonton-Riverview NDP safe
7. Calgary-McCall NDP safe
8. Edmonton-Rutherford NDP safe
9. Edmonton-Manning NDP safe
10. Edmonton-North West NDP safe
11. Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview NDP safe
12. Edmonton-Meadows NDP safe
13. Calgary-Mountain View NDP safe
14. Edmonton-Ellerslie NDP safe
15. Edmonton-Mill Woods NDP safe
16. Edmonton-Castle Downs NDP safe
17. Edmonton-McClung NDP safe
18. Edmonton-Whitemud NDP safe
19. Edmonton-Decore NDP safe
20. Edmonton-West Henday NDP safe
21. Calgary-Buffalo NDP safe
22. Edmonton-South NDP safe
23. Calgary-Currie NDP likely
24. Lethbridge-West NDP likely
25. St. Albert NDP likely
26. Calgary-Klein NDP likely
27. Calgary-Varsity NDP likely
28. Calgary-Falconridge NDP likely
29. Sherwood Park NDP likely
30. Edmonton-South West NDP leaning
31. Calgary-North East NDP leaning
32. Banff-Kananaskis NDP leaning
33. Calgary-North West NDP leaning
34. Calgary-East NDP leaning
35. Calgary-Foothills NDP leaning
36. Calgary-Glenmore NDP leaning
37. Lethbridge-East NDP leaning
38. Calgary-Beddington NDP leaning
39. Calgary-North Toss up UCP/NDP
40. Calgary-Acadia Toss up UCP/NDP
41. Strathcona-Sherwood Park Toss up UCP/NDP
42. Calgary-Cross Toss up UCP/NDP
43. Calgary-Bow Toss up UCP/NDP
44. Morinville-St. Albert Toss up UCP/NDP
45. Calgary-Edgemont Toss up UCP/NDP
46. Lesser Slave Lake Toss up UCP/NDP
47. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville Toss up UCP/NDP
48. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain Toss up UCP/NDP
49. Calgary-Peigan UCP leaning
50. Calgary-Fish Creek UCP leaning
51. Calgary-West UCP leaning
52. Calgary-Elbow UCP leaning
53. Calgary-Hays UCP leaning
54. Calgary-Lougheed UCP leaning
55. Calgary-Shaw UCP leaning
56. Cypress-Medicine Hat UCP leaning
57. Airdrie-Cochrane UCP leaning
58. Red Deer-South UCP likely
59. Calgary-South East UCP likely
60. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin UCP likely
61. Leduc-Beaumont UCP likely
62. Red Deer-North UCP likely
63. Airdrie East UCP likely