New Democratic Party
Last update: September 13, 2025
| Leader | Naheed Nenshi |
| Popular vote in 2023 | 44.1% |
| Current vote projection | 40.0% ± 4.7% |
| Current number of MLA's | 38 |
| Current seat projection | 26 [12-39] |
Vote projection | September 13, 2025
Seat projection | September 13, 2025
Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party
| Rank | Electoral districts | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Edmonton-Strathcona | |
Safe NDP | >99% |
| 2. | Edmonton-City Centre | |
Safe NDP | >99% |
| 3. | Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood | |
Safe NDP | >99% |
| 4. | Edmonton-Gold Bar | |
Safe NDP | >99% |
| 5. | Edmonton-Glenora | |
Safe NDP | >99% |
| 6. | Edmonton-Riverview | |
Safe NDP | >99% |
| 7. | Calgary-Mountain View | |
Safe NDP | >99% |
| 8. | Calgary-Buffalo | |
Likely NDP | >99% |
| 9. | Edmonton-Rutherford | |
Likely NDP | 99% |
| 10. | Lethbridge-West | |
Likely NDP | 95% |
| 11. | Edmonton-Meadows | |
Leaning NDP | 90% |
| 12. | Edmonton-Whitemud | |
Leaning NDP | 87% |
| 13. | Calgary-Varsity | |
Leaning NDP | 87% |
| 14. | Edmonton-Ellerslie | |
Leaning NDP | 86% |
| 15. | Calgary-Falconridge | |
Leaning NDP | 83% |
| 16. | Calgary-Currie | |
Leaning NDP | 80% |
| 17. | Banff-Kananaskis | |
Leaning NDP | 78% |
| 18. | Edmonton-Mill Woods | |
Leaning NDP | 78% |
| 19. | Edmonton-McClung | |
Leaning NDP | 77% |
| 20. | Edmonton-North West | |
Leaning NDP | 76% |
| 21. | Calgary-Bhullar-McCall | |
Leaning NDP | 76% |
| 22. | Edmonton-Manning | |
Leaning NDP | 73% |
| 23. | St. Albert | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 68% |
| 24. | Edmonton-South | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 64% |
| 25. | Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 62% |
| 26. | Edmonton-West Henday | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 60% |
| 27. | Calgary-North East | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 49% |
| 28. | Lethbridge-East |  |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 44% |
| 29. | Edmonton-Castle Downs | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 39% |
| 30. | Edmonton-South West | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 33% |
| 31. | Edmonton-Decore | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 31% |
| 32. | Calgary-Beddington | |
Leaning UCP gain | 22% |
| 33. | Calgary-Klein | |
Leaning UCP gain | 19% |
| 34. | Calgary-Elbow | |
Leaning UCP gain | 18% |
| 35. | Calgary-Edgemont | |
Leaning UCP gain | 12% |
| 36. | Sherwood Park | |
Likely UCP gain | 10% |
| 37. | Calgary-Foothills | |
Likely UCP gain | 9% |
| 38. | Calgary-Acadia | |
Likely UCP gain | 7% |
| 39. | Red Deer-South | |
Likely UCP | 7% |
| 40. | Calgary-North | |
Likely UCP | 7% |
| 41. | Calgary-Glenmore | |
Likely UCP gain | 7% |
| 42. | Calgary-Bow | |
Likely UCP | 6% |
| 43. | Calgary-North West | |
Likely UCP | 5% |
| 44. | Calgary-Cross | |
Likely UCP | 3% |
| 45. | Calgary-East | |
Likely UCP | 2% |
| 46. | Red Deer-North | |
Likely UCP | 2% |
| 47. | Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville | |
Likely UCP | 1% |
| Rank | Electoral districts | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Edmonton-Strathcona | Safe NDP |
| 2. | Edmonton-City Centre | Safe NDP |
| 3. | Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood | Safe NDP |
| 4. | Edmonton-Gold Bar | Safe NDP |
| 5. | Edmonton-Glenora | Safe NDP |
| 6. | Edmonton-Riverview | Safe NDP |
| 7. | Calgary-Mountain View | Safe NDP |
| 8. | Calgary-Buffalo | Likely NDP |
| 9. | Edmonton-Rutherford | Likely NDP |
| 10. | Lethbridge-West | Likely NDP |
| 11. | Edmonton-Meadows | Leaning NDP |
| 12. | Edmonton-Whitemud | Leaning NDP |
| 13. | Calgary-Varsity | Leaning NDP |
| 14. | Edmonton-Ellerslie | Leaning NDP |
| 15. | Calgary-Falconridge | Leaning NDP |
| 16. | Calgary-Currie | Leaning NDP |
| 17. | Banff-Kananaskis | Leaning NDP |
| 18. | Edmonton-Mill Woods | Leaning NDP |
| 19. | Edmonton-McClung | Leaning NDP |
| 20. | Edmonton-North West | Leaning NDP |
| 21. | Calgary-Bhullar-McCall | Leaning NDP |
| 22. | Edmonton-Manning | Leaning NDP |
| 23. | St. Albert | Toss up UCP/NDP |
| 24. | Edmonton-South | Toss up UCP/NDP |
| 25. | Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview | Toss up UCP/NDP |
| 26. | Edmonton-West Henday | Toss up UCP/NDP |
| 27. | Calgary-North East | Toss up UCP/NDP |
| 28. | Lethbridge-East | Toss up UCP/NDP |
| 29. | Edmonton-Castle Downs | Toss up UCP/NDP |
| 30. | Edmonton-South West | Toss up UCP/NDP |
| 31. | Edmonton-Decore | Toss up UCP/NDP |
| 32. | Calgary-Beddington | Leaning UCP gain |
| 33. | Calgary-Klein | Leaning UCP gain |
| 34. | Calgary-Elbow | Leaning UCP gain |
| 35. | Calgary-Edgemont | Leaning UCP gain |
| 36. | Sherwood Park | Likely UCP gain |
| 37. | Calgary-Foothills | Likely UCP gain |
| 38. | Calgary-Acadia | Likely UCP gain |
| 39. | Red Deer-South | Likely UCP |
| 40. | Calgary-North | Likely UCP |
| 41. | Calgary-Glenmore | Likely UCP gain |
| 42. | Calgary-Bow | Likely UCP |
| 43. | Calgary-North West | Likely UCP |
| 44. | Calgary-Cross | Likely UCP |
| 45. | Calgary-East | Likely UCP |
| 46. | Red Deer-North | Likely UCP |
| 47. | Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville | Likely UCP |