338Canada Alberta | New Democratic Party





Last update: October 24, 2021

LeaderRachel Notley
Popular vote in 201932.7%
Current vote projection45.1% ± 5.8%
Current number of MLA's24
Current seat projection60 [45-71]



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the New Democratic Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Edmonton-Strathcona NDP safe >99%
2. Edmonton-City Centre NDP safe >99%
3. Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood NDP safe >99%
4. Edmonton-Gold Bar NDP safe >99%
5. Edmonton-Glenora NDP safe >99%
6. Calgary-McCall NDP safe >99%
7. Edmonton-Riverview NDP safe >99%
8. Calgary-Buffalo NDP safe >99%
9. Edmonton-Rutherford NDP safe >99%
10. Calgary-Mountain View NDP safe >99%
11. Edmonton-Manning NDP safe >99%
12. Edmonton-North West NDP safe >99%
13. Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview NDP safe >99%
14. Edmonton-Ellerslie NDP safe >99%
15. Edmonton-Mill Woods NDP safe >99%
16. Calgary-Falconridge NDP safe >99%
17. Calgary-Currie NDP safe >99%
18. Lethbridge-West NDP safe >99%
19. Edmonton-Castle Downs NDP safe >99%
20. Edmonton-McClung NDP safe >99%
21. Edmonton-Meadows NDP safe >99%
22. St. Albert NDP safe >99%
23. Sherwood Park NDP safe >99%
24. Edmonton-Whitemud NDP safe >99%
25. Edmonton-Decore NDP safe >99%
26. Calgary-Varsity NDP safe >99%
27. Edmonton-South NDP safe >99%
28. Calgary-Klein NDP safe >99%
29. Edmonton-West Henday NDP safe >99%
30. Banff-Kananaskis NDP safe >99%
31. Calgary-North East NDP safe >99%
32. Calgary-Cross NDP safe >99%
33. Calgary-East NDP safe >99%
34. Calgary-Beddington NDP safe >99%
35. Morinville-St. Albert NDP safe >99%
36. Lethbridge-East NDP likely >99%
37. Calgary-Acadia NDP likely >99%
38. Calgary-Edgemont NDP likely >99%
39. Calgary-Bow NDP likely >99%
40. Edmonton-South West NDP likely >99%
41. Calgary-Glenmore NDP likely 99%
42. Calgary-Foothills NDP likely 99%
43. Calgary-North West NDP likely 98%
44. Strathcona-Sherwood Park NDP likely 98%
45. Lesser Slave Lake NDP likely 97%
46. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville NDP likely 96%
47. Calgary-North NDP likely 96%
48. Leduc-Beaumont NDP likely 91%
49. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain NDP leaning 88%
50. Calgary-Peigan NDP leaning 88%
51. Calgary-Elbow NDP leaning 84%
52. Calgary-Fish Creek NDP leaning 80%
53. Red Deer-South NDP leaning 74%
54. Calgary-Hays Toss up UCP/NDP 66%
55. Calgary-Shaw Toss up UCP/NDP 58%
56. Calgary-Lougheed Toss up UCP/NDP 57%
57. Calgary-West Toss up UCP/NDP 52%
58. Cypress-Medicine Hat Toss up UCP/NDP 52%
59. Red Deer-North Toss up UCP/NDP 51%
60. Airdrie-Cochrane Toss up UCP/NDP 50%
61. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin Toss up UCP/NDP 46%
62. Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche Toss up UCP/NDP 43%
63. Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland Toss up UCP/NDP 36%
64. Grande Prairie Toss up UCP/NDP 34%
65. Calgary-South East Toss up UCP/NDP 34%
66. Peace River UCP leaning 20%
67. Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo UCP leaning 12%
68. West Yellowhead UCP leaning 10%
69. Airdrie East UCP likely 9%
70. Livingston-Macleod UCP likely 8%
71. Brooks-Medicine Hat UCP likely 7%
72. Camrose UCP likely 6%
73. Athabasca-Barrhead UCP likely 5%
74. Central Peace-Notley UCP likely 2%
75. Drayton Valley-Devon UCP likely 1%
76. Chestermere-Strathmore UCP likely <1%
77. Highwood UCP likely <1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Edmonton-Strathcona NDP safe
2. Edmonton-City Centre NDP safe
3. Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood NDP safe
4. Edmonton-Gold Bar NDP safe
5. Edmonton-Glenora NDP safe
6. Calgary-McCall NDP safe
7. Edmonton-Riverview NDP safe
8. Calgary-Buffalo NDP safe
9. Edmonton-Rutherford NDP safe
10. Calgary-Mountain View NDP safe
11. Edmonton-Manning NDP safe
12. Edmonton-North West NDP safe
13. Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview NDP safe
14. Edmonton-Ellerslie NDP safe
15. Edmonton-Mill Woods NDP safe
16. Calgary-Falconridge NDP safe
17. Calgary-Currie NDP safe
18. Lethbridge-West NDP safe
19. Edmonton-Castle Downs NDP safe
20. Edmonton-McClung NDP safe
21. Edmonton-Meadows NDP safe
22. St. Albert NDP safe
23. Sherwood Park NDP safe
24. Edmonton-Whitemud NDP safe
25. Edmonton-Decore NDP safe
26. Calgary-Varsity NDP safe
27. Edmonton-South NDP safe
28. Calgary-Klein NDP safe
29. Edmonton-West Henday NDP safe
30. Banff-Kananaskis NDP safe
31. Calgary-North East NDP safe
32. Calgary-Cross NDP safe
33. Calgary-East NDP safe
34. Calgary-Beddington NDP safe
35. Morinville-St. Albert NDP safe
36. Lethbridge-East NDP likely
37. Calgary-Acadia NDP likely
38. Calgary-Edgemont NDP likely
39. Calgary-Bow NDP likely
40. Edmonton-South West NDP likely
41. Calgary-Glenmore NDP likely
42. Calgary-Foothills NDP likely
43. Calgary-North West NDP likely
44. Strathcona-Sherwood Park NDP likely
45. Lesser Slave Lake NDP likely
46. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville NDP likely
47. Calgary-North NDP likely
48. Leduc-Beaumont NDP likely
49. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain NDP leaning
50. Calgary-Peigan NDP leaning
51. Calgary-Elbow NDP leaning
52. Calgary-Fish Creek NDP leaning
53. Red Deer-South NDP leaning
54. Calgary-Hays Toss up UCP/NDP
55. Calgary-Shaw Toss up UCP/NDP
56. Calgary-Lougheed Toss up UCP/NDP
57. Calgary-West Toss up UCP/NDP
58. Cypress-Medicine Hat Toss up UCP/NDP
59. Red Deer-North Toss up UCP/NDP
60. Airdrie-Cochrane Toss up UCP/NDP
61. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin Toss up UCP/NDP
62. Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche Toss up UCP/NDP
63. Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland Toss up UCP/NDP
64. Grande Prairie Toss up UCP/NDP
65. Calgary-South East Toss up UCP/NDP
66. Peace River UCP leaning
67. Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo UCP leaning
68. West Yellowhead UCP leaning
69. Airdrie East UCP likely
70. Livingston-Macleod UCP likely
71. Brooks-Medicine Hat UCP likely
72. Camrose UCP likely
73. Athabasca-Barrhead UCP likely
74. Central Peace-Notley UCP likely
75. Drayton Valley-Devon UCP likely
76. Chestermere-Strathmore UCP likely
77. Highwood UCP likely



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