logo
Alberta

New Democratic Party





Last update: July 7, 2024

LeaderNaheed Nenshi
Popular vote in 202344.1%
Current vote projection41.3% ± 4.7%
Current number of MLA's38
Current seat projection28 [15-45]

Vote projection | July 7, 2024

31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 36.6% 41.3% ± 4.7% 2023 44.1% Max. 46.0% Probabilities % NDP

Seat projection | July 7, 2024

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 15 28 2023 38 seats Majority 44 seats Max. 45 Probabilities % NDP

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Edmonton-Strathcona Safe NDP >99%
2. Edmonton-City Centre Safe NDP >99%
3. Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood Safe NDP >99%
4. Calgary-Mountain View Safe NDP >99%
5. Edmonton-Gold Bar Safe NDP >99%
6. Edmonton-Glenora Safe NDP >99%
7. Edmonton-Riverview Safe NDP >99%
8. Calgary-Buffalo Safe NDP >99%
9. Edmonton-Rutherford Likely NDP >99%
10. Lethbridge-West Likely NDP 99%
11. Calgary-Varsity Likely NDP 98%
12. Calgary-Falconridge Likely NDP 95%
13. Calgary-Currie Likely NDP 95%
14. Edmonton-Meadows Likely NDP 94%
15. Calgary-Bhullar-McCall Likely NDP 92%
16. Edmonton-Whitemud Likely NDP 92%
17. Edmonton-Ellerslie Likely NDP 91%
18. Edmonton-Mill Woods Leaning NDP 84%
19. Edmonton-McClung Leaning NDP 84%
20. Edmonton-North West Leaning NDP 83%
21. Edmonton-Manning Leaning NDP 81%
22. Calgary-North East Leaning NDP 79%
23. Banff-Kananaskis Leaning NDP 78%
24. St. Albert Leaning NDP 78%
25. Edmonton-South Leaning NDP 73%
26. Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview Leaning NDP 71%
27. Edmonton-West Henday Toss up UCP/NDP 70%
28. Calgary-Beddington Toss up UCP/NDP 52%
29. Edmonton-Castle Downs Toss up UCP/NDP 48%
30. Calgary-Klein Toss up UCP/NDP 48%
31. Calgary-Elbow Toss up UCP/NDP 48%
32. Lethbridge-East Toss up UCP/NDP 44%
33. Edmonton-South West Toss up UCP/NDP 43%
34. Edmonton-Decore Toss up UCP/NDP 39%
35. Calgary-Edgemont Toss up UCP/NDP 37%
36. Calgary-Foothills Toss up UCP/NDP 33%
37. Calgary-Glenmore Leaning UCP gain 26%
38. Calgary-Acadia Leaning UCP gain 26%
39. Calgary-North Leaning UCP 25%
40. Calgary-Bow Leaning UCP 23%
41. Calgary-North West Leaning UCP 23%
42. Sherwood Park Leaning UCP gain 15%
43. Calgary-Cross Leaning UCP 15%
44. Calgary-East Leaning UCP 10%
45. Red Deer-South Likely UCP 8%
46. Calgary-Fish Creek Likely UCP 2%
47. Red Deer-North Likely UCP 2%
48. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville Likely UCP 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Edmonton-Strathcona Safe NDP
2. Edmonton-City Centre Safe NDP
3. Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood Safe NDP
4. Calgary-Mountain View Safe NDP
5. Edmonton-Gold Bar Safe NDP
6. Edmonton-Glenora Safe NDP
7. Edmonton-Riverview Safe NDP
8. Calgary-Buffalo Safe NDP
9. Edmonton-Rutherford Likely NDP
10. Lethbridge-West Likely NDP
11. Calgary-Varsity Likely NDP
12. Calgary-Falconridge Likely NDP
13. Calgary-Currie Likely NDP
14. Edmonton-Meadows Likely NDP
15. Calgary-Bhullar-McCall Likely NDP
16. Edmonton-Whitemud Likely NDP
17. Edmonton-Ellerslie Likely NDP
18. Edmonton-Mill Woods Leaning NDP
19. Edmonton-McClung Leaning NDP
20. Edmonton-North West Leaning NDP
21. Edmonton-Manning Leaning NDP
22. Calgary-North East Leaning NDP
23. Banff-Kananaskis Leaning NDP
24. St. Albert Leaning NDP
25. Edmonton-South Leaning NDP
26. Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview Leaning NDP
27. Edmonton-West Henday Toss up UCP/NDP
28. Calgary-Beddington Toss up UCP/NDP
29. Edmonton-Castle Downs Toss up UCP/NDP
30. Calgary-Klein Toss up UCP/NDP
31. Calgary-Elbow Toss up UCP/NDP
32. Lethbridge-East Toss up UCP/NDP
33. Edmonton-South West Toss up UCP/NDP
34. Edmonton-Decore Toss up UCP/NDP
35. Calgary-Edgemont Toss up UCP/NDP
36. Calgary-Foothills Toss up UCP/NDP
37. Calgary-Glenmore Leaning UCP gain
38. Calgary-Acadia Leaning UCP gain
39. Calgary-North Leaning UCP
40. Calgary-Bow Leaning UCP
41. Calgary-North West Leaning UCP
42. Sherwood Park Leaning UCP gain
43. Calgary-Cross Leaning UCP
44. Calgary-East Leaning UCP
45. Red Deer-South Likely UCP
46. Calgary-Fish Creek Likely UCP
47. Red Deer-North Likely UCP
48. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville Likely UCP