New Democratic Party
Last update: February 9, 2025
| Leader | Naheed Nenshi |
| Popular vote in 2023 | 44.1% |
| Current vote projection | 40.8% ± 4.7% |
| Current number of MLA's | 38 |
| Current seat projection | 27 [13-44] |
Vote projection | February 9, 2025
Seat projection | February 9, 2025
Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party
| Rank | Electoral districts | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Edmonton-Strathcona | |
Safe NDP | >99% |
| 2. | Edmonton-City Centre | |
Safe NDP | >99% |
| 3. | Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood | |
Safe NDP | >99% |
| 4. | Calgary-Mountain View | |
Safe NDP | >99% |
| 5. | Edmonton-Glenora | |
Safe NDP | >99% |
| 6. | Edmonton-Gold Bar | |
Safe NDP | >99% |
| 7. | Calgary-Buffalo | |
Safe NDP | >99% |
| 8. | Edmonton-Riverview | |
Safe NDP | >99% |
| 9. | Edmonton-Rutherford | |
Likely NDP | 99% |
| 10. | Calgary-Varsity | |
Likely NDP | 97% |
| 11. | Calgary-Falconridge | |
Likely NDP | 94% |
| 12. | Calgary-Currie | |
Likely NDP | 94% |
| 13. | Lethbridge-West | |
Likely NDP | 93% |
| 14. | Edmonton-Meadows | |
Likely NDP | 92% |
| 15. | Calgary-Bhullar-McCall | |
Likely NDP | 90% |
| 16. | Edmonton-Whitemud | |
Leaning NDP | 89% |
| 17. | Edmonton-Ellerslie | |
Leaning NDP | 89% |
| 18. | Edmonton-Mill Woods | |
Leaning NDP | 81% |
| 19. | Edmonton-McClung | |
Leaning NDP | 81% |
| 20. | Edmonton-North West | |
Leaning NDP | 80% |
| 21. | Edmonton-Manning | |
Leaning NDP | 77% |
| 22. | Calgary-North East | |
Leaning NDP | 74% |
| 23. | Banff-Kananaskis | |
Leaning NDP | 74% |
| 24. | St. Albert | |
Leaning NDP | 73% |
| 25. | Edmonton-South | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 69% |
| 26. | Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 65% |
| 27. | Edmonton-West Henday | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 65% |
| 28. | Calgary-Beddington | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 47% |
| 29. | Edmonton-Castle Downs | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 43% |
| 30. | Calgary-Klein | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 43% |
| 31. | Calgary-Elbow | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 42% |
| 32. | Lethbridge-East |  |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 38% |
| 33. | Edmonton-South West | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 38% |
| 34. | Edmonton-Decore | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 35% |
| 35. | Calgary-Edgemont | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 32% |
| 36. | Calgary-Foothills | |
Leaning UCP gain | 27% |
| 37. | Calgary-Glenmore | |
Leaning UCP gain | 22% |
| 38. | Calgary-Acadia | |
Leaning UCP gain | 22% |
| 39. | Calgary-North | |
Leaning UCP | 21% |
| 40. | Calgary-Bow | |
Leaning UCP | 19% |
| 41. | Calgary-North West | |
Leaning UCP | 18% |
| 42. | Sherwood Park | |
Leaning UCP gain | 12% |
| 43. | Calgary-Cross | |
Leaning UCP | 12% |
| 44. | Calgary-East | |
Likely UCP | 8% |
| 45. | Red Deer-South | |
Likely UCP | 6% |
| 46. | Calgary-Fish Creek | |
Likely UCP | 2% |
| 47. | Red Deer-North | |
Likely UCP | 1% |
| Rank | Electoral districts | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Edmonton-Strathcona | Safe NDP |
| 2. | Edmonton-City Centre | Safe NDP |
| 3. | Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood | Safe NDP |
| 4. | Calgary-Mountain View | Safe NDP |
| 5. | Edmonton-Glenora | Safe NDP |
| 6. | Edmonton-Gold Bar | Safe NDP |
| 7. | Calgary-Buffalo | Safe NDP |
| 8. | Edmonton-Riverview | Safe NDP |
| 9. | Edmonton-Rutherford | Likely NDP |
| 10. | Calgary-Varsity | Likely NDP |
| 11. | Calgary-Falconridge | Likely NDP |
| 12. | Calgary-Currie | Likely NDP |
| 13. | Lethbridge-West | Likely NDP |
| 14. | Edmonton-Meadows | Likely NDP |
| 15. | Calgary-Bhullar-McCall | Likely NDP |
| 16. | Edmonton-Whitemud | Leaning NDP |
| 17. | Edmonton-Ellerslie | Leaning NDP |
| 18. | Edmonton-Mill Woods | Leaning NDP |
| 19. | Edmonton-McClung | Leaning NDP |
| 20. | Edmonton-North West | Leaning NDP |
| 21. | Edmonton-Manning | Leaning NDP |
| 22. | Calgary-North East | Leaning NDP |
| 23. | Banff-Kananaskis | Leaning NDP |
| 24. | St. Albert | Leaning NDP |
| 25. | Edmonton-South | Toss up UCP/NDP |
| 26. | Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview | Toss up UCP/NDP |
| 27. | Edmonton-West Henday | Toss up UCP/NDP |
| 28. | Calgary-Beddington | Toss up UCP/NDP |
| 29. | Edmonton-Castle Downs | Toss up UCP/NDP |
| 30. | Calgary-Klein | Toss up UCP/NDP |
| 31. | Calgary-Elbow | Toss up UCP/NDP |
| 32. | Lethbridge-East | Toss up UCP/NDP |
| 33. | Edmonton-South West | Toss up UCP/NDP |
| 34. | Edmonton-Decore | Toss up UCP/NDP |
| 35. | Calgary-Edgemont | Toss up UCP/NDP |
| 36. | Calgary-Foothills | Leaning UCP gain |
| 37. | Calgary-Glenmore | Leaning UCP gain |
| 38. | Calgary-Acadia | Leaning UCP gain |
| 39. | Calgary-North | Leaning UCP |
| 40. | Calgary-Bow | Leaning UCP |
| 41. | Calgary-North West | Leaning UCP |
| 42. | Sherwood Park | Leaning UCP gain |
| 43. | Calgary-Cross | Leaning UCP |
| 44. | Calgary-East | Likely UCP |
| 45. | Red Deer-South | Likely UCP |
| 46. | Calgary-Fish Creek | Likely UCP |
| 47. | Red Deer-North | Likely UCP |