New Democratic Party

Last update: May 30, 2025

Leader	Naheed Nenshi
Popular vote in 2023	44.1%
Current vote projection	39.6% ± 4.7%
Current number of MLA's	38
Current seat projection	26 [11-38]

Vote projection | May 30, 2025

Seat projection | May 30, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party

Rank	Electoral districts	Current party	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Edmonton-Strathcona		Safe NDP	>99%
2.	Edmonton-City Centre		Safe NDP	>99%
3.	Edmonton-Gold Bar		Safe NDP	>99%
4.	Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood		Safe NDP	>99%
5.	Edmonton-Glenora		Safe NDP	>99%
6.	Edmonton-Riverview		Safe NDP	>99%
7.	Calgary-Mountain View		Safe NDP	>99%
8.	Calgary-Buffalo		Likely NDP	>99%
9.	Edmonton-Rutherford		Likely NDP	99%
10.	Lethbridge-West		Likely NDP	93%
11.	Edmonton-Meadows		Leaning NDP	87%
12.	Edmonton-Whitemud		Leaning NDP	83%
13.	Edmonton-Ellerslie		Leaning NDP	83%
14.	Calgary-Varsity		Leaning NDP	83%
15.	Calgary-Falconridge		Leaning NDP	79%
16.	Calgary-Currie		Leaning NDP	75%
17.	Banff-Kananaskis		Leaning NDP	74%
18.	Edmonton-Mill Woods		Leaning NDP	73%
19.	Edmonton-McClung		Leaning NDP	73%
20.	Calgary-Bhullar-McCall		Leaning NDP	72%
21.	Edmonton-North West		Leaning NDP	72%
22.	Edmonton-Manning		Toss up UCP/NDP	68%
23.	St. Albert		Toss up UCP/NDP	63%
24.	Edmonton-South		Toss up UCP/NDP	58%
25.	Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview		Toss up UCP/NDP	57%
26.	Edmonton-West Henday		Toss up UCP/NDP	55%
27.	Calgary-North East		Toss up UCP/NDP	43%
28.	Lethbridge-East		Toss up UCP/NDP	39%
29.	Edmonton-Castle Downs		Toss up UCP/NDP	33%
30.	Edmonton-South West		Leaning UCP gain	27%
31.	Edmonton-Decore		Leaning UCP gain	25%
32.	Calgary-Beddington		Leaning UCP gain	18%
33.	Calgary-Klein		Leaning UCP gain	16%
34.	Calgary-Elbow		Leaning UCP gain	15%
35.	Calgary-Edgemont		Likely UCP gain	10%
36.	Calgary-Foothills		Likely UCP gain	7%
37.	Sherwood Park		Likely UCP gain	7%
38.	Calgary-North		Likely UCP	6%
39.	Calgary-Acadia		Likely UCP gain	5%
40.	Red Deer-South		Likely UCP	5%
41.	Calgary-Glenmore		Likely UCP gain	5%
42.	Calgary-Bow		Likely UCP	4%
43.	Calgary-North West		Likely UCP	4%
44.	Calgary-Cross		Likely UCP	3%
45.	Calgary-East		Likely UCP	2%
46.	Red Deer-North		Likely UCP	1%