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Alberta

New Democratic Party





Last update: May 31, 2023

LeaderRachel Notley
Popular vote in 201932.7%
Current vote projection44.0% ± 0.5%
Current number of MLA's38
Current seat projection38 [36-38]

Vote projection | May 31, 2023

43% 44% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 43.6% 44.0% ± 0.5% Max. 44.5% Probabilities % NDP

Seat projection | May 31, 2023

35 36 37 38 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 36 Max. 38 38 Probabilities % NDP

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Edmonton-Strathcona Safe NDP >99%
2. Edmonton-City Centre Safe NDP >99%
3. Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood Safe NDP >99%
4. Edmonton-Gold Bar Safe NDP >99%
5. Edmonton-Glenora Safe NDP >99%
6. Edmonton-Riverview Safe NDP >99%
7. Calgary-Mountain View Safe NDP >99%
8. Edmonton-Rutherford Safe NDP >99%
9. Calgary-Buffalo Safe NDP >99%
10. Edmonton-Meadows Safe NDP >99%
11. Edmonton-Ellerslie Safe NDP >99%
12. Edmonton-Mill Woods Safe NDP >99%
13. Edmonton-Whitemud Safe NDP >99%
14. Edmonton-North West Safe NDP >99%
15. Edmonton-Manning Safe NDP >99%
16. Edmonton-South Safe NDP >99%
17. St. Albert Safe NDP >99%
18. Calgary-Varsity Safe NDP >99%
19. Edmonton-McClung Safe NDP >99%
20. Edmonton-West Henday Safe NDP >99%
21. Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview Safe NDP >99%
22. Edmonton-South West Safe NDP >99%
23. Calgary-Currie Safe NDP >99%
24. Calgary-Falconridge Safe NDP >99%
25. Edmonton-Castle Downs Likely NDP >99%
26. Calgary-Bhullar-McCall Likely NDP >99%
27. Lethbridge-West Likely NDP >99%
28. Edmonton-Decore Likely NDP 99%
29. Calgary-North East Likely NDP 99%
30. Sherwood Park Likely NDP 95%
31. Calgary-Klein Leaning NDP 83%
32. Calgary-Elbow Leaning NDP 78%
33. Calgary-Beddington Leaning NDP 74%
34. Calgary-Edgemont Toss up UCP/NDP 62%
35. Calgary-Foothills Toss up UCP/NDP 61%
36. Banff-Kananaskis Toss up UCP/NDP 58%
37. Calgary-Glenmore Toss up UCP/NDP 51%
38. Calgary-Acadia Toss up UCP/NDP 50%
39. Calgary-North Toss up UCP/NDP 44%
40. Calgary-North West Toss up UCP/NDP 44%
41. Calgary-Bow Toss up UCP/NDP 35%
42. Calgary-Cross Leaning UCP 25%
43. Lethbridge-East Leaning UCP 21%
44. Calgary-East Leaning UCP 17%
45. Morinville-St. Albert Likely UCP 6%
46. Strathcona-Sherwood Park Likely UCP 1%
47. Calgary-Fish Creek Likely UCP 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Edmonton-Strathcona Safe NDP
2. Edmonton-City Centre Safe NDP
3. Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood Safe NDP
4. Edmonton-Gold Bar Safe NDP
5. Edmonton-Glenora Safe NDP
6. Edmonton-Riverview Safe NDP
7. Calgary-Mountain View Safe NDP
8. Edmonton-Rutherford Safe NDP
9. Calgary-Buffalo Safe NDP
10. Edmonton-Meadows Safe NDP
11. Edmonton-Ellerslie Safe NDP
12. Edmonton-Mill Woods Safe NDP
13. Edmonton-Whitemud Safe NDP
14. Edmonton-North West Safe NDP
15. Edmonton-Manning Safe NDP
16. Edmonton-South Safe NDP
17. St. Albert Safe NDP
18. Calgary-Varsity Safe NDP
19. Edmonton-McClung Safe NDP
20. Edmonton-West Henday Safe NDP
21. Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview Safe NDP
22. Edmonton-South West Safe NDP
23. Calgary-Currie Safe NDP
24. Calgary-Falconridge Safe NDP
25. Edmonton-Castle Downs Likely NDP
26. Calgary-Bhullar-McCall Likely NDP
27. Lethbridge-West Likely NDP
28. Edmonton-Decore Likely NDP
29. Calgary-North East Likely NDP
30. Sherwood Park Likely NDP
31. Calgary-Klein Leaning NDP
32. Calgary-Elbow Leaning NDP
33. Calgary-Beddington Leaning NDP
34. Calgary-Edgemont Toss up UCP/NDP
35. Calgary-Foothills Toss up UCP/NDP
36. Banff-Kananaskis Toss up UCP/NDP
37. Calgary-Glenmore Toss up UCP/NDP
38. Calgary-Acadia Toss up UCP/NDP
39. Calgary-North Toss up UCP/NDP
40. Calgary-North West Toss up UCP/NDP
41. Calgary-Bow Toss up UCP/NDP
42. Calgary-Cross Leaning UCP
43. Lethbridge-East Leaning UCP
44. Calgary-East Leaning UCP
45. Morinville-St. Albert Likely UCP
46. Strathcona-Sherwood Park Likely UCP
47. Calgary-Fish Creek Likely UCP