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Alberta

New Democratic Party





Last update: January 29, 2023

LeaderRachel Notley
Popular vote in 201932.7%
Current vote projection44.2% ± 6.2%
Current number of MLA's24
Current seat projection42 [28-50]

Vote projection | January 29, 2023

30% 32% 34% 36% 38% 40% 42% 44% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 56% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2019 32.7% Min. 38.0% 44.2% ± 6.2% Max. 50.5% Probabilities % NDP

Seat projection | January 29, 2023

14 19 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2019 24 seats Min. 28 42 Majority 44 seats Max. 50 Probabilities % NDP

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Edmonton-Strathcona Safe NDP hold >99%
2. Edmonton-City Centre Safe NDP hold >99%
3. Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood Safe NDP hold >99%
4. Edmonton-Gold Bar Safe NDP hold >99%
5. Edmonton-Glenora Safe NDP hold >99%
6. Edmonton-Riverview Safe NDP hold >99%
7. Edmonton-Rutherford Safe NDP hold >99%
8. Calgary-Bhullar-McCall Safe NDP hold >99%
9. Calgary-Mountain View Safe NDP hold >99%
10. Calgary-Buffalo Safe NDP hold >99%
11. Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview Safe NDP hold >99%
12. Edmonton-North West Safe NDP hold >99%
13. Edmonton-Meadows Safe NDP hold >99%
14. Edmonton-Ellerslie Safe NDP hold >99%
15. Edmonton-Mill Woods Safe NDP hold >99%
16. Edmonton-Manning Safe NDP hold >99%
17. Lethbridge-West Safe NDP hold >99%
18. Edmonton-Whitemud Likely NDP hold >99%
19. Edmonton-Castle Downs Likely NDP hold >99%
20. Edmonton-Decore Likely NDP hold 99%
21. Edmonton-McClung Likely NDP hold 99%
22. Edmonton-South Likely NDP hold 98%
23. Calgary-Falconridge Likely NDP gain 97%
24. Calgary-Varsity Likely NDP gain 96%
25. Edmonton-West Henday Likely NDP hold 95%
26. St. Albert Likely NDP hold 92%
27. Calgary-Currie Likely NDP gain 91%
28. Calgary-Klein Leaning NDP gain 87%
29. Calgary-North East Leaning NDP gain 82%
30. Edmonton-South West Leaning NDP gain 77%
31. Banff-Kananaskis Leaning NDP gain 76%
32. Calgary-Acadia Leaning NDP gain 76%
33. Calgary-Beddington Leaning NDP gain 74%
34. Calgary-East Leaning NDP gain 73%
35. Sherwood Park Toss up UCP/NDP 68%
36. Calgary-Cross Toss up UCP/NDP 65%
37. Calgary-Edgemont Toss up UCP/NDP 62%
38. Calgary-Bow Toss up UCP/NDP 57%
39. Calgary-Elbow Toss up UCP/NDP 55%
40. Lethbridge-East Toss up UCP/NDP 51%
41. Calgary-Glenmore Toss up UCP/NDP 50%
42. Calgary-North West Toss up UCP/NDP 50%
43. Calgary-North Toss up UCP/NDP 50%
44. Calgary-Foothills Toss up UCP/NDP 36%
45. Calgary-Peigan Leaning UCP hold 28%
46. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville Leaning UCP hold 22%
47. Calgary-Fish Creek Leaning UCP hold 20%
48. Lesser Slave Lake Leaning UCP hold 14%
49. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain Leaning UCP hold 13%
50. Red Deer-South Leaning UCP hold 11%
51. Morinville-St. Albert Likely UCP hold 8%
52. Strathcona-Sherwood Park Likely UCP hold 7%
53. Airdrie-Cochrane Likely UCP hold 4%
54. Cypress-Medicine Hat Likely UCP hold 4%
55. Red Deer-North Likely UCP hold 4%
56. Calgary-Hays Likely UCP hold 3%
57. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin Likely UCP hold 3%
58. Calgary-Shaw Likely UCP hold 3%
59. Calgary-West Likely UCP hold 2%
60. Calgary-Lougheed Likely UCP hold 2%
61. Airdrie East Likely UCP hold 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Edmonton-Strathcona Safe NDP hold
2. Edmonton-City Centre Safe NDP hold
3. Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood Safe NDP hold
4. Edmonton-Gold Bar Safe NDP hold
5. Edmonton-Glenora Safe NDP hold
6. Edmonton-Riverview Safe NDP hold
7. Edmonton-Rutherford Safe NDP hold
8. Calgary-Bhullar-McCall Safe NDP hold
9. Calgary-Mountain View Safe NDP hold
10. Calgary-Buffalo Safe NDP hold
11. Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview Safe NDP hold
12. Edmonton-North West Safe NDP hold
13. Edmonton-Meadows Safe NDP hold
14. Edmonton-Ellerslie Safe NDP hold
15. Edmonton-Mill Woods Safe NDP hold
16. Edmonton-Manning Safe NDP hold
17. Lethbridge-West Safe NDP hold
18. Edmonton-Whitemud Likely NDP hold
19. Edmonton-Castle Downs Likely NDP hold
20. Edmonton-Decore Likely NDP hold
21. Edmonton-McClung Likely NDP hold
22. Edmonton-South Likely NDP hold
23. Calgary-Falconridge Likely NDP gain
24. Calgary-Varsity Likely NDP gain
25. Edmonton-West Henday Likely NDP hold
26. St. Albert Likely NDP hold
27. Calgary-Currie Likely NDP gain
28. Calgary-Klein Leaning NDP gain
29. Calgary-North East Leaning NDP gain
30. Edmonton-South West Leaning NDP gain
31. Banff-Kananaskis Leaning NDP gain
32. Calgary-Acadia Leaning NDP gain
33. Calgary-Beddington Leaning NDP gain
34. Calgary-East Leaning NDP gain
35. Sherwood Park Toss up UCP/NDP
36. Calgary-Cross Toss up UCP/NDP
37. Calgary-Edgemont Toss up UCP/NDP
38. Calgary-Bow Toss up UCP/NDP
39. Calgary-Elbow Toss up UCP/NDP
40. Lethbridge-East Toss up UCP/NDP
41. Calgary-Glenmore Toss up UCP/NDP
42. Calgary-North West Toss up UCP/NDP
43. Calgary-North Toss up UCP/NDP
44. Calgary-Foothills Toss up UCP/NDP
45. Calgary-Peigan Leaning UCP hold
46. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville Leaning UCP hold
47. Calgary-Fish Creek Leaning UCP hold
48. Lesser Slave Lake Leaning UCP hold
49. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain Leaning UCP hold
50. Red Deer-South Leaning UCP hold
51. Morinville-St. Albert Likely UCP hold
52. Strathcona-Sherwood Park Likely UCP hold
53. Airdrie-Cochrane Likely UCP hold
54. Cypress-Medicine Hat Likely UCP hold
55. Red Deer-North Likely UCP hold
56. Calgary-Hays Likely UCP hold
57. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin Likely UCP hold
58. Calgary-Shaw Likely UCP hold
59. Calgary-West Likely UCP hold
60. Calgary-Lougheed Likely UCP hold
61. Airdrie East Likely UCP hold