New Democratic Party
Last update: July 7, 2024
| Leader | Naheed Nenshi |
| Popular vote in 2023 | 44.1% |
| Current vote projection | 41.3% ± 4.7% |
| Current number of MLA's | 38 |
| Current seat projection | 28 [15-45] |
Vote projection | July 7, 2024
Seat projection | July 7, 2024
Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party
| Rank | Electoral districts | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Edmonton-Strathcona | |
Safe NDP | >99% |
| 2. | Edmonton-City Centre | |
Safe NDP | >99% |
| 3. | Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood | |
Safe NDP | >99% |
| 4. | Calgary-Mountain View | |
Safe NDP | >99% |
| 5. | Edmonton-Gold Bar | |
Safe NDP | >99% |
| 6. | Edmonton-Glenora | |
Safe NDP | >99% |
| 7. | Edmonton-Riverview | |
Safe NDP | >99% |
| 8. | Calgary-Buffalo | |
Safe NDP | >99% |
| 9. | Edmonton-Rutherford | |
Likely NDP | >99% |
| 10. | Lethbridge-West | |
Likely NDP | 99% |
| 11. | Calgary-Varsity | |
Likely NDP | 98% |
| 12. | Calgary-Falconridge | |
Likely NDP | 95% |
| 13. | Calgary-Currie | |
Likely NDP | 95% |
| 14. | Edmonton-Meadows | |
Likely NDP | 94% |
| 15. | Calgary-Bhullar-McCall | |
Likely NDP | 92% |
| 16. | Edmonton-Whitemud | |
Likely NDP | 92% |
| 17. | Edmonton-Ellerslie | |
Likely NDP | 91% |
| 18. | Edmonton-Mill Woods | |
Leaning NDP | 84% |
| 19. | Edmonton-McClung | |
Leaning NDP | 84% |
| 20. | Edmonton-North West | |
Leaning NDP | 83% |
| 21. | Edmonton-Manning | |
Leaning NDP | 81% |
| 22. | Calgary-North East | |
Leaning NDP | 79% |
| 23. | Banff-Kananaskis | |
Leaning NDP | 78% |
| 24. | St. Albert | |
Leaning NDP | 78% |
| 25. | Edmonton-South | |
Leaning NDP | 73% |
| 26. | Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview | |
Leaning NDP | 71% |
| 27. | Edmonton-West Henday | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 70% |
| 28. | Calgary-Beddington | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 52% |
| 29. | Edmonton-Castle Downs | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 48% |
| 30. | Calgary-Klein | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 48% |
| 31. | Calgary-Elbow | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 48% |
| 32. | Lethbridge-East |  |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 44% |
| 33. | Edmonton-South West | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 43% |
| 34. | Edmonton-Decore | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 39% |
| 35. | Calgary-Edgemont | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 37% |
| 36. | Calgary-Foothills | |
Toss up UCP/NDP | 33% |
| 37. | Calgary-Glenmore | |
Leaning UCP gain | 26% |
| 38. | Calgary-Acadia | |
Leaning UCP gain | 26% |
| 39. | Calgary-North | |
Leaning UCP | 25% |
| 40. | Calgary-Bow | |
Leaning UCP | 23% |
| 41. | Calgary-North West | |
Leaning UCP | 23% |
| 42. | Sherwood Park | |
Leaning UCP gain | 15% |
| 43. | Calgary-Cross | |
Leaning UCP | 15% |
| 44. | Calgary-East | |
Leaning UCP | 10% |
| 45. | Red Deer-South | |
Likely UCP | 8% |
| 46. | Calgary-Fish Creek | |
Likely UCP | 2% |
| 47. | Red Deer-North | |
Likely UCP | 2% |
| 48. | Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville | |
Likely UCP | 1% |
| Rank | Electoral districts | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Edmonton-Strathcona | Safe NDP |
| 2. | Edmonton-City Centre | Safe NDP |
| 3. | Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood | Safe NDP |
| 4. | Calgary-Mountain View | Safe NDP |
| 5. | Edmonton-Gold Bar | Safe NDP |
| 6. | Edmonton-Glenora | Safe NDP |
| 7. | Edmonton-Riverview | Safe NDP |
| 8. | Calgary-Buffalo | Safe NDP |
| 9. | Edmonton-Rutherford | Likely NDP |
| 10. | Lethbridge-West | Likely NDP |
| 11. | Calgary-Varsity | Likely NDP |
| 12. | Calgary-Falconridge | Likely NDP |
| 13. | Calgary-Currie | Likely NDP |
| 14. | Edmonton-Meadows | Likely NDP |
| 15. | Calgary-Bhullar-McCall | Likely NDP |
| 16. | Edmonton-Whitemud | Likely NDP |
| 17. | Edmonton-Ellerslie | Likely NDP |
| 18. | Edmonton-Mill Woods | Leaning NDP |
| 19. | Edmonton-McClung | Leaning NDP |
| 20. | Edmonton-North West | Leaning NDP |
| 21. | Edmonton-Manning | Leaning NDP |
| 22. | Calgary-North East | Leaning NDP |
| 23. | Banff-Kananaskis | Leaning NDP |
| 24. | St. Albert | Leaning NDP |
| 25. | Edmonton-South | Leaning NDP |
| 26. | Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview | Leaning NDP |
| 27. | Edmonton-West Henday | Toss up UCP/NDP |
| 28. | Calgary-Beddington | Toss up UCP/NDP |
| 29. | Edmonton-Castle Downs | Toss up UCP/NDP |
| 30. | Calgary-Klein | Toss up UCP/NDP |
| 31. | Calgary-Elbow | Toss up UCP/NDP |
| 32. | Lethbridge-East | Toss up UCP/NDP |
| 33. | Edmonton-South West | Toss up UCP/NDP |
| 34. | Edmonton-Decore | Toss up UCP/NDP |
| 35. | Calgary-Edgemont | Toss up UCP/NDP |
| 36. | Calgary-Foothills | Toss up UCP/NDP |
| 37. | Calgary-Glenmore | Leaning UCP gain |
| 38. | Calgary-Acadia | Leaning UCP gain |
| 39. | Calgary-North | Leaning UCP |
| 40. | Calgary-Bow | Leaning UCP |
| 41. | Calgary-North West | Leaning UCP |
| 42. | Sherwood Park | Leaning UCP gain |
| 43. | Calgary-Cross | Leaning UCP |
| 44. | Calgary-East | Leaning UCP |
| 45. | Red Deer-South | Likely UCP |
| 46. | Calgary-Fish Creek | Likely UCP |
| 47. | Red Deer-North | Likely UCP |
| 48. | Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville | Likely UCP |