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Last update: January 9, 2021
Leader | Rachel Notley |
Popular vote in 2019 | 32.7% |
Current vote projection | 44.2% ± 6.3% |
Current number of MP's | 24 |
Current seat projection | 47 ± 14 |
Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the New Democratic Party
Rank | Electoral districts | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Edmonton-Strathcona | NDP safe | >99% | |
2. | Edmonton-City Centre | NDP safe | >99% | |
3. | Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood | NDP safe | >99% | |
4. | Edmonton-Gold Bar | NDP safe | >99% | |
5. | Edmonton-Glenora | NDP safe | >99% | |
6. | Edmonton-Riverview | NDP safe | >99% | |
7. | Calgary-McCall | NDP safe | >99% | |
8. | Edmonton-Manning | NDP safe | >99% | |
9. | Edmonton-Rutherford | NDP safe | >99% | |
10. | Edmonton-Meadows | NDP safe | >99% | |
11. | Edmonton-Mill Woods | NDP safe | >99% | |
12. | Calgary-Buffalo | NDP safe | >99% | |
13. | Edmonton-North West | NDP safe | >99% | |
14. | Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview | NDP safe | >99% | |
15. | Calgary-Mountain View | NDP safe | >99% | |
16. | Edmonton-Ellerslie | NDP safe | >99% | |
17. | Edmonton-Castle Downs | NDP safe | >99% | |
18. | Edmonton-McClung | NDP safe | >99% | |
19. | Edmonton-South | NDP safe | >99% | |
20. | Edmonton-West Henday | NDP safe | >99% | |
21. | Edmonton-Whitemud | NDP safe | >99% | |
22. | Calgary-Currie | NDP safe | >99% | |
23. | Edmonton-Decore | NDP safe | >99% | |
24. | Lethbridge-West | NDP safe | >99% | |
25. | St. Albert | NDP likely | >99% | |
26. | Calgary-Falconridge | NDP likely | 99% | |
27. | Calgary-Cross | NDP likely | 97% | |
28. | Calgary-Varsity | NDP likely | 97% | |
29. | Calgary-East | NDP likely | 97% | |
30. | Calgary-Klein | NDP likely | 97% | |
31. | Calgary-Beddington | NDP likely | 96% | |
32. | Banff-Kananaskis | NDP likely | 95% | |
33. | Calgary-Acadia | NDP likely | 95% | |
34. | Edmonton-South West | NDP likely | 94% | |
35. | Calgary-Edgemont | NDP likely | 94% | |
36. | Calgary-North East | NDP likely | 92% | |
37. | Calgary-Bow | NDP likely | 91% | |
38. | Sherwood Park | NDP leaning | 87% | |
39. | Calgary-Glenmore | NDP leaning | 82% | |
40. | Calgary-Foothills | NDP leaning | 80% | |
41. | Calgary-North West | NDP leaning | 78% | |
42. | Calgary-North | NDP leaning | 75% | |
43. | Morinville-St. Albert | Toss up | 67% | |
44. | Calgary-Elbow | Toss up | 61% | |
45. | Lethbridge-East | Toss up | 61% | |
46. | Strathcona-Sherwood Park | Toss up | 60% | |
47. | Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville | Toss up | 56% | |
48. | Spruce Grove-Stony Plain | Toss up | 49% | |
49. | Calgary-Peigan | Toss up | 48% | |
50. | Lesser Slave Lake | ![]() |
Toss up | 45% |
51. | Leduc-Beaumont | Toss up | 45% | |
52. | Calgary-Fish Creek | Toss up | 38% | |
53. | Red Deer-South | Toss up | 37% | |
54. | Cypress-Medicine Hat | UCP leaning | 15% | |
55. | Red Deer-North | UCP leaning | 14% | |
56. | Airdrie-Cochrane | UCP leaning | 12% | |
57. | Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin | UCP leaning | 10% | |
58. | Calgary-Hays | UCP likely | 9% | |
59. | Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche | UCP likely | 9% | |
60. | Calgary-Shaw | UCP likely | 9% | |
61. | Calgary-West | UCP likely | 7% | |
62. | Grande Prairie | UCP likely | 5% | |
63. | Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland | UCP likely | 5% | |
64. | Calgary-Lougheed | UCP likely | 4% | |
65. | Peace River | UCP likely | 2% | |
66. | Calgary-South East | UCP likely | <1% | |
67. | Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo | UCP likely | <1% |