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Last update: March 14, 2021
| Leader | Rachel Notley |
| Popular vote in 2019 | 32.7% |
| Current vote projection | 42.8% ± 5.7% |
| Current number of MP's | 24 |
| Current seat projection | 45 ± 13 |
Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the New Democratic Party
| Rank | Electoral districts | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Edmonton-Strathcona | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 2. | Edmonton-City Centre | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 3. | Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 4. | Edmonton-Gold Bar | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 5. | Edmonton-Glenora | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 6. | Edmonton-Riverview | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 7. | Calgary-McCall | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 8. | Edmonton-Manning | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 9. | Edmonton-Rutherford | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 10. | Edmonton-Meadows | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 11. | Edmonton-Mill Woods | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 12. | Calgary-Buffalo | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 13. | Edmonton-North West | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 14. | Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 15. | Calgary-Mountain View | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 16. | Edmonton-Ellerslie | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 17. | Edmonton-South | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 18. | Edmonton-Castle Downs | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 19. | Edmonton-McClung | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 20. | Edmonton-Whitemud | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 21. | Edmonton-West Henday | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 22. | Edmonton-Decore | |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 23. | Calgary-Currie |  |
NDP safe | >99% |
| 24. | St. Albert | |
NDP likely | >99% |
| 25. | Lethbridge-West | |
NDP likely | >99% |
| 26. | Calgary-Falconridge | |
NDP likely | 99% |
| 27. | Calgary-Klein | |
NDP likely | 97% |
| 28. | Calgary-Beddington | |
NDP likely | 96% |
| 29. | Calgary-Cross | |
NDP likely | 95% |
| 30. | Calgary-East | |
NDP likely | 95% |
| 31. | Calgary-Acadia | |
NDP likely | 95% |
| 32. | Calgary-Varsity | |
NDP likely | 93% |
| 33. | Calgary-North East | |
NDP likely | 92% |
| 34. | Calgary-Bow | |
NDP likely | 90% |
| 35. | Calgary-Edgemont | |
NDP leaning | 89% |
| 36. | Edmonton-South West | |
NDP leaning | 89% |
| 37. | Banff-Kananaskis | |
NDP leaning | 85% |
| 38. | Calgary-Glenmore | |
NDP leaning | 81% |
| 39. | Calgary-Foothills | |
NDP leaning | 79% |
| 40. | Calgary-North West | |
NDP leaning | 76% |
| 41. | Calgary-North | |
NDP leaning | 72% |
| 42. | Sherwood Park | |
NDP leaning | 71% |
| 43. | Morinville-St. Albert | |
Toss up | 49% |
| 44. | Strathcona-Sherwood Park | |
Toss up | 46% |
| 45. | Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville | |
Toss up | 46% |
| 46. | Calgary-Peigan | |
Toss up | 44% |
| 47. | Lethbridge-East | |
Toss up | 43% |
| 48. | Spruce Grove-Stony Plain | |
Toss up | 38% |
| 49. | Lesser Slave Lake |  |
Toss up | 36% |
| 50. | Leduc-Beaumont | |
Toss up | 34% |
| 51. | Calgary-Elbow | |
UCP leaning | 28% |
| 52. | Calgary-Fish Creek | |
UCP leaning | 24% |
| 53. | Red Deer-South | |
UCP leaning | 24% |
| 54. | Cypress-Medicine Hat | |
UCP likely | 8% |
| 55. | Airdrie-Cochrane | |
UCP likely | 6% |
| 56. | Red Deer-North | |
UCP likely | 6% |
| 57. | Calgary-Hays | |
UCP likely | 5% |
| 58. | Calgary-Shaw | |
UCP likely | 5% |
| 59. | Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin | |
UCP likely | 5% |
| 60. | Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche | |
UCP likely | 4% |
| 61. | Calgary-West | |
UCP likely | 4% |
| 62. | Calgary-Lougheed | |
UCP likely | 2% |
| 63. | Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland | |
UCP likely | 2% |
| 64. | Grande Prairie | |
UCP likely | 2% |
| 65. | Peace River | |
UCP likely | <1% |