New Democratic Party
Last update: July 7, 2024
Leader | Naheed Nenshi |
Popular vote in 2023 | 44.1% |
Current vote projection | 41.3% ± 4.7% |
Current number of MLA's | 38 |
Current seat projection | 28 [15-45] |
Vote projection | July 7, 2024
Seat projection | July 7, 2024
Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party
Rank | Electoral districts | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Edmonton-Strathcona | Safe NDP | >99% | |
2. | Edmonton-City Centre | Safe NDP | >99% | |
3. | Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood | Safe NDP | >99% | |
4. | Calgary-Mountain View | Safe NDP | >99% | |
5. | Edmonton-Gold Bar | Safe NDP | >99% | |
6. | Edmonton-Glenora | Safe NDP | >99% | |
7. | Edmonton-Riverview | Safe NDP | >99% | |
8. | Calgary-Buffalo | Safe NDP | >99% | |
9. | Edmonton-Rutherford | Likely NDP | >99% | |
10. | Lethbridge-West | Likely NDP | 99% | |
11. | Calgary-Varsity | Likely NDP | 98% | |
12. | Calgary-Falconridge | Likely NDP | 95% | |
13. | Calgary-Currie | Likely NDP | 95% | |
14. | Edmonton-Meadows | Likely NDP | 94% | |
15. | Calgary-Bhullar-McCall | Likely NDP | 92% | |
16. | Edmonton-Whitemud | Likely NDP | 92% | |
17. | Edmonton-Ellerslie | Likely NDP | 91% | |
18. | Edmonton-Mill Woods | Leaning NDP | 84% | |
19. | Edmonton-McClung | Leaning NDP | 84% | |
20. | Edmonton-North West | Leaning NDP | 83% | |
21. | Edmonton-Manning | Leaning NDP | 81% | |
22. | Calgary-North East | Leaning NDP | 79% | |
23. | Banff-Kananaskis | Leaning NDP | 78% | |
24. | St. Albert | Leaning NDP | 78% | |
25. | Edmonton-South | Leaning NDP | 73% | |
26. | Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview | Leaning NDP | 71% | |
27. | Edmonton-West Henday | Toss up UCP/NDP | 70% | |
28. | Calgary-Beddington | Toss up UCP/NDP | 52% | |
29. | Edmonton-Castle Downs | Toss up UCP/NDP | 48% | |
30. | Calgary-Klein | Toss up UCP/NDP | 48% | |
31. | Calgary-Elbow | Toss up UCP/NDP | 48% | |
32. | Lethbridge-East | Toss up UCP/NDP | 44% | |
33. | Edmonton-South West | Toss up UCP/NDP | 43% | |
34. | Edmonton-Decore | Toss up UCP/NDP | 39% | |
35. | Calgary-Edgemont | Toss up UCP/NDP | 37% | |
36. | Calgary-Foothills | Toss up UCP/NDP | 33% | |
37. | Calgary-Glenmore | Leaning UCP gain | 26% | |
38. | Calgary-Acadia | Leaning UCP gain | 26% | |
39. | Calgary-North | Leaning UCP | 25% | |
40. | Calgary-Bow | Leaning UCP | 23% | |
41. | Calgary-North West | Leaning UCP | 23% | |
42. | Sherwood Park | Leaning UCP gain | 15% | |
43. | Calgary-Cross | Leaning UCP | 15% | |
44. | Calgary-East | Leaning UCP | 10% | |
45. | Red Deer-South | Likely UCP | 8% | |
46. | Calgary-Fish Creek | Likely UCP | 2% | |
47. | Red Deer-North | Likely UCP | 2% | |
48. | Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville | Likely UCP | 1% |
Rank | Electoral districts | Projection |
---|---|---|
1. | Edmonton-Strathcona | Safe NDP |
2. | Edmonton-City Centre | Safe NDP |
3. | Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood | Safe NDP |
4. | Calgary-Mountain View | Safe NDP |
5. | Edmonton-Gold Bar | Safe NDP |
6. | Edmonton-Glenora | Safe NDP |
7. | Edmonton-Riverview | Safe NDP |
8. | Calgary-Buffalo | Safe NDP |
9. | Edmonton-Rutherford | Likely NDP |
10. | Lethbridge-West | Likely NDP |
11. | Calgary-Varsity | Likely NDP |
12. | Calgary-Falconridge | Likely NDP |
13. | Calgary-Currie | Likely NDP |
14. | Edmonton-Meadows | Likely NDP |
15. | Calgary-Bhullar-McCall | Likely NDP |
16. | Edmonton-Whitemud | Likely NDP |
17. | Edmonton-Ellerslie | Likely NDP |
18. | Edmonton-Mill Woods | Leaning NDP |
19. | Edmonton-McClung | Leaning NDP |
20. | Edmonton-North West | Leaning NDP |
21. | Edmonton-Manning | Leaning NDP |
22. | Calgary-North East | Leaning NDP |
23. | Banff-Kananaskis | Leaning NDP |
24. | St. Albert | Leaning NDP |
25. | Edmonton-South | Leaning NDP |
26. | Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview | Leaning NDP |
27. | Edmonton-West Henday | Toss up UCP/NDP |
28. | Calgary-Beddington | Toss up UCP/NDP |
29. | Edmonton-Castle Downs | Toss up UCP/NDP |
30. | Calgary-Klein | Toss up UCP/NDP |
31. | Calgary-Elbow | Toss up UCP/NDP |
32. | Lethbridge-East | Toss up UCP/NDP |
33. | Edmonton-South West | Toss up UCP/NDP |
34. | Edmonton-Decore | Toss up UCP/NDP |
35. | Calgary-Edgemont | Toss up UCP/NDP |
36. | Calgary-Foothills | Toss up UCP/NDP |
37. | Calgary-Glenmore | Leaning UCP gain |
38. | Calgary-Acadia | Leaning UCP gain |
39. | Calgary-North | Leaning UCP |
40. | Calgary-Bow | Leaning UCP |
41. | Calgary-North West | Leaning UCP |
42. | Sherwood Park | Leaning UCP gain |
43. | Calgary-Cross | Leaning UCP |
44. | Calgary-East | Leaning UCP |
45. | Red Deer-South | Likely UCP |
46. | Calgary-Fish Creek | Likely UCP |
47. | Red Deer-North | Likely UCP |
48. | Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville | Likely UCP |